(binned per thread starter's request) Price

This will be a journal about my trading going forward. But first...

I believe a formal trading education is necessary to learn to trade profitably. You and only you know if you are profiting from your chosen trading style. If you are.... Awesome! Keep on keepin' on!!! You need to prove nothing to me or anyone else. If not then stop kidding yourself about learning to trade on your own. You need to find a legitimate education that teaches true understanding of price. Finding a real trading education is your real challenge if you've been trading for some time and haven't become consistently profitable.

I'm not going to name where I am obtaining my education as I don't want this thread to end up in the abyss that is the commercial section (the last place where you will find a legitimate trading education). As I post charts and make comments you might figure it out. I'm not here to prove anyting. I am still learning.

I use Andrew's Pitchforks yet my trades rely little on the "lines". My trades rely on price behavior at or around the lines. The Fork is helpful and Andrew's rules are important but useless if you don't understand price.

This is not a course. This is not a system. Just some charts. I hope you learn something from my learning.

When analyzing a market it helps to do so systematically and without bias and without searching for a trade.

This EURUSD H1 market has been moving relentlessly higher. Since I am most interested in trading swings I look for the most important swings. On this chart I've highlighted the biggest swings with the green horizontal lines. I don't intend to trade from this zoom level as I can't see any PA.


Next I like to find where dominant buyers and sellers are. Buyers/sellers can be at a horizontal level or diagonal level. Notice that when price took out the sellers at the red horizontal rectangle that price moved up and made new high. Notice that when price came back to the same area that the buyers picked it up and they have been pushing price up at the green diagonal. So far I've shown only facts.No bias and no expectations...just observation.

Now, if I want, I can start looking at drawing forks. There are different ways to draw forks and none are wrong or necessarily right.

This fork shows how price returned to the center line which price does with 80% accuracy. This fork is also based on the swings I previously drew.


This is a modified Schiff of the previous fork. By doing this price is divided into major and minor levels.

Here's another one. Look how steep it is. The steepness bothers me a bit but we can fix that.

If we modify Schiff the fork then it looks like this.


All the forks shown are technically correct and each one can be used to trade. Just because a fork is pointing up doesn't mean you have to buy, nor do you have to sell just because the fork is pointing down. I think what confuses many about trading forks is that they think the lines themselves are magic but they're not. Except in rare instances I never enter a trade just because price has reached a certain line.

Updated EURUSD H1. We'll go back and look at some interesting areas and how certain structures and bar action can be handled.

After making a new high price came down fairly hard to where buyers took out sellers creating a controlling structure where it is likely buyers may still lurk. When price reached the area the bar level action confirmed buyers were still there. Just fact. This is an area where one might consider buying or we could wait for more confirmation. A WRB gap occurs and price goes on to make a relative high. Price comes back to the WRB gap and offers another long opportunity with a very good stop.

We can see that the blue fork is containing price nicely. If one entered earlier some patience would have been needed before price finally moved up. But price still offered another opportunity. The red rectangle to the right is an area of sellers with a WRB Gap. Later a Bull WRB Gap takes these sellers out swapping and with the next bar price comes back to the gap offers a buy and a reasonable stop.

Current EURUSD H1 zoomed in to see bar level action. Buyers are really in control right now.

Red arrow does not indicate a trade. It points to an outside bar.

Last 3 posts are all EURUSD. Although different time frames I do not use multi-time frame analysis to enter trade. I treat each time frame separately.

Modified Schiff shown. Price expanded (major reaction swing) into controlling sellers with a wash/rinse into the gap. Price descended from the gap with an impulse and has made new low.

very nice job. you're doing good

ZOOM!

Tempting short but stop is 25 pips. Don't think 75 pips (3:1) to the downside is realistic. See if a new stop develops.