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Clear Signal: SELL Dollar

  • #61
  • Sep 19, 2006 3:55pm Sep 19, 2006 3:55pm
Quoting Vic12002
For whatever it's worth, Bloomberg TV was reporting the Thai Baht at a 4 year low after the coup.
Here is a daily chart of the THB for all of 2006. Over the last 5 years it has often flirted with the 37-38 area. Political unrest does not happen overnight. I suspect well informed, risk averse people have known for sometime that things weren't looking good.

It doesn't look like it closed down to me. Maybe the dude that got kicked out deserved it and the currency rebounded. I hate to say it, but that would blow about 3 pages of hot air expened on this thread by people who never even looked at a chart.

By the way, welcome to FF Vic I wasn't including you in that group
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  • #62
  • Sep 19, 2006 4:22pm Sep 19, 2006 4:22pm
Quoting philmcgrew
I hate to say it, but that would blow about 3 pages of hot air expened on this thread by people who never even looked at a chart.
If we could stay constructive I'd appreciate it. We could all degenerate in groundless comments but its not what I've seen before on FF.

The chart you post above hides the biggest daily drop in the currency since 2003. Over 1.3% or thereabouts. Thats significant no matter which way you chart it.
  • #63
  • Sep 19, 2006 4:25pm Sep 19, 2006 4:25pm
Quoting Money Talks
Think of it like this. You are president of a large bank in Thailand or some neighbouring county. Your aunty rings you at 3am in the morning to wake you from sleep to complain that there are tanks rolling around the street below and she can't get any sleep. Do you:

a. Increase you're holding of thai currency?
b. Decrease you're holding of Thai currency?

Any bank over there will decrease their holding and invest in Eur, dollar, swiss, gold, sheep, farms, land, nuts, lego until they know whats going on. Once we know how the situation will pan out we'll all be back to normal and Mr. Bank manager can resume his beauty sleep.

Even bring it down to our level. If you were holding thai currency and betting on a dollar decline (what is their currency anyway??!) what would you do????

Politics has always affected currencies. Sometimes drasticallys sometimes only a few pips. Look at Paulsons speeches and the G7 summits and the uncertainity over Yen statements etc. The Thai situation at the moment is akin to that.
I guess it's a.
  • #64
  • Sep 19, 2006 4:28pm Sep 19, 2006 4:28pm
Quoting Money Talks
The chart you post above hides the biggest daily drop in the currency since 2003. Over 1.3% or thereabouts. Thats significant no matter which way you chart it.
The chart doesn't hide anything (typical fundamental response...LOL). There were bigger daily moves this year than occured today.
  • #65
  • Sep 19, 2006 4:32pm Sep 19, 2006 4:32pm
I dont follow...The dollar rose against the Baht meaning the Baht was SOLD....
  • #66
  • Sep 19, 2006 5:25pm Sep 19, 2006 5:25pm
Dunno about the Baht since my broker for one surely doesn't allow trading it...as for the majors, almost every pair I look at put in a dollar bullish pin bar or a bearish outside bar pro dollar in these last 8-10 hours, thanks to what doesn't matter, it's the outcome that is important and what the charts tell us.
Not bloomberg or cnn or cnbc. Unless you want to take signals off of their talking heads, that is...

Anyway, the trouble with actually trading these setups is that tomorrow can make and break anything just as easily, so imho no matter which camp, both sides can "explain" what they want and interpret charts or speeches all they want, in the end the market's just gonna go where it's gonna go...
And I don't think it's been that terribly predictable lately or especially today, no matter what people say....I mean christ, oil was up 50 cent then dove down to 2$ lower than open for 250 pips total moved in a single day....gold bashed down 17.5$....and all this after they were at first signalling at least a short term correction...
I think there's gonna be quite a bit more pushing and shoving, but neither the commodity decline nor the dollar rally is over just yet, no matter what the reason, no?
The questions is, will we get a clear outlook after tomorrow...

Well, prolly not, knowing good ole mumblejumble ben...
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #67
  • Sep 20, 2006 3:13am Sep 20, 2006 3:13am
someone wake up paulson and fukui........
Price is the only indicator.
  • #68
  • Sep 20, 2006 3:15am Sep 20, 2006 3:15am
117.15 a big deviation from the mean before USA open... hmm....and FOMC, wonder if it will ever trade back to 118, is the dollar rally over?!

Range for today

117-118

mean is

117.5
Price is the only indicator.
  • #69
  • Sep 20, 2006 5:26am Sep 20, 2006 5:26am
117.20 nexxxxtttt.....please.

117.20--->117.40--->117.50---->1117.70----->117.5
Price is the only indicator.
  • #70
  • Sep 20, 2006 8:08am Sep 20, 2006 8:08am
compression wedge , if it breaks 117.30 price bias shifts positive.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #71
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:32am Mar 9, 2007 9:32am
I have traded a $200k+ account with Dukascopy for over six months. Nothing but problems! Their spreads are great. The problem is their platform (software, servers, or their internet) is constantly disconnecting, not executing trades, etc. I have waited for over 5 hours for the market to reach a point where I wanted to execute a trade only to have their platform sit idle and then finally tell me it failed to execute the trade, with the opportunity evaporating. I have had open positions and then get disconnected and not be able to access my own account and lose big money when the position went from profitable (when I wanted to exit) to a loss.

Their platform is not ready for live use. I have confirmed that they do not have redundant servers nor multiple internet providers to ensure reliable service to their customers. It appears as if they care more about their fees and commissions and therefore are willing to experiment with their clients money, hoping that one day they will finally get their platform to become reliable.

If you are willing to throw $10k in to trade with them and be one of their Guinnea Pigs, then you might get lucky. But if you are a serious trader, you need to focus on the markets and your strategies and not have to fight with the trading platform too.

If anyone knows a good broker/ECN to work with, please let me know! I have some large accounts I need to find a good home for.

Thanks.

Quoting Spectre2006
dukascopy I heard rocks....

someone wakeup Paulson... I heard he likes dollars.
  • #72
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:56am Mar 9, 2007 9:56am
Quoting Tradefxadvisor
If anyone knows a good broker/ECN to work with, please let me know! I have some large accounts I need to find a good home for.

Thanks.
I have traded with FXDD. No problems, fast executions, practically no downtime. They widen spreads a bit during announcements. Just now NFP spreads were up by a pip.
I wouldnt put 200k all at once. They have this service transfer money electronically back and forth between accounts takes 3-4 days, or wire sometimes posted same day. Put 10-20k in there and keep the rest on stand by earning interest somewhere in one of those internet savings account making you 5%.
  • #73
  • Mar 9, 2007 10:52am Mar 9, 2007 10:52am
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting irusoh
Put 10-20k in there and keep the rest on stand by earning interest somewhere in one of those internet savings account making you 5%.
Thats actually funny being said in a forex forum...
  • #74
  • Last Post: Mar 9, 2007 12:33pm Mar 9, 2007 12:33pm
Quoting ForexDude2
Thats actually funny being said in a forex forum...
I think it's funny to keep 200K at forex broker, unless of course you have a 10 mill dollar account
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