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38 consecutive wins, 0 losses = win?

  • #21
  • Aug 31, 2017 10:35am Aug 31, 2017 10:35am
How much profit did he make by winning those positions? which assets did he use? I use my own algorithm and im not able to make 38-0 ratio, at best 4-1.
  • #22
  • Sep 5, 2017 8:27am Sep 5, 2017 8:27am
Quoting SjefLeaven
How much profit did he make by winning those positions? which assets did he use? I use my own algorithm and im not able to make 38-0 ratio, at best 4-1.
I too am curious about what instrument he was trading. And whether his strategy still has no losses.So far it sounds very impressive.
  • #23
  • Sep 5, 2017 9:13am Sep 5, 2017 9:13am
Quoting mfurlend
Hi, My dad is a Forex newbie and I know nothing about Forex at all. A few days ago my father came up with an algorithm that he has been testing using play-money. Although all his other ideas failed, this algorithm has yielded 38 consecutive wins for him with 0 losses. Could this just be a coincidence, or does he really have something here? He is reluctant to believe that a newbie like him could create such an effective money-machine so quickly. What are your thoughts on this?
Just to give you an idea, I always like to have backtesting run for at least several years, yes several years just to make sure the system would be profitable in ALL market conditions. Forex market is very dynamic and it changes from year to year. A system that is profitable in a relatively trending year might not be profitable in a year that trades more in ranges and vice versa. And for forward demo testing, I like to run it for at least 6 months to 1 year just to make sure that the system is CONSISTENTLY profitable before I go live.

And also as someone has suggested, what were the risk involved? If the stop-losses are set too wide that would not be supported by the amount of capital to be invested in live trading, you might get margin called and the position would be taken out before it becomes profitable like in demo. And the actual amount of profit vs. loss is actually more important. You can win $5 each time for 38 times but lost $200 this ONE time, you would still end up with a $10 net loss.

Thirdly, don't forget demo trading does NOT reflect execution quality. When trading with paper money, all trades are executed perfectly and immediately but in real life trading, the execution speed might not be that fast and you might not get the best entry price as in demo trading. So if your dad's system relies a lot on execution quality, the demo trading results may not reflect real trading.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #24
  • Sep 5, 2017 11:04am Sep 5, 2017 11:04am
Quoting mfurlend
Hi, My dad is a Forex newbie and I know nothing about Forex at all. A few days ago my father came up with an algorithm that he has been testing using play-money. Although all his other ideas failed, this algorithm has yielded 38 consecutive wins for him with 0 losses. Could this just be a coincidence, or does he really have something here?

It isn't possible to tell, from the information provided.

At places like Zulutrade, they wisely publish a prominent warning next to systems with a 100% win-rate, because long experience has (quite correctly) taught them that such methods almost inevitably crash and burn at some unspecified future point, often blowing the account in the process, typically because they're either trading without a stop-loss, adding to losers/averaging down, or trading with a dangerous stop-loss.

For myself, I'd be very, very wary of copying anything that wins 38 consecutive trades, because there'll be something "not quite right" with it, almost certainly.
  • #25
  • Sep 5, 2017 11:59pm Sep 5, 2017 11:59pm
It is all about sizes of winnings and losers...(as mentioned many times). Also, it would be helpful to know how much in red have those trades been at worst?.
If he is making say 10 pips with max risk of 100, it might still be very good system.
  • #26
  • Sep 6, 2017 2:16am Sep 6, 2017 2:16am
Quoting mfurlend
Hi, My dad is a Forex newbie and I know nothing about Forex at all. A few days ago my father came up with an algorithm that he has been testing using play-money. Although all his other ideas failed, this algorithm has yielded 38 consecutive wins for him with 0 losses. Could this just be a coincidence, or does he really have something here? He is reluctant to believe that a newbie like him could create such an effective money-machine so quickly. What are your thoughts on this?
Ask your Dad if he is aware of what a Martingale progression is? :-)
  • #27
  • Sep 6, 2017 3:37am Sep 6, 2017 3:37am
Mcfurlend hasn't posted on Forex Factory for over 5 years. Someone has been naughty and revived a hobby I used to have when I got bored.
Gone to a better place
  • #28
  • Jan 12, 2018 9:24am Jan 12, 2018 9:24am
Quoting smikester
Mcfurlend hasn't posted on Forex Factory for over 5 years. Someone has been naughty and revived a hobby I used to have when I got bored.
Lol! I just noticed the thread was opened on 2010! Sudden huge profit from a strategy brings multiple damaged accounts!
  • #29
  • Jan 13, 2018 9:37am Jan 13, 2018 9:37am
Quoting DarrenLehma
{quote} Lol! I just noticed the thread was opened on 2010! Sudden huge profit from a strategy brings multiple damaged accounts!
I noticed it just now because you and smikester pointed it out. I never pay attention to that.
  • #30
  • Mar 21, 2018 10:42am Mar 21, 2018 10:42am
That is a pure coincidence over that time frame.
  • #31
  • Last Post: Mar 21, 2018 11:35am Mar 21, 2018 11:35am
Quoting Tg12
That is a pure coincidence over that time frame.
The thread is eight years old, they must have noticed by now.
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