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Let's Trade Options

  • #15,221
  • Aug 11, 2017 7:40pm Aug 11, 2017 7:40pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
whats you on vacation man?
I had a few earnings trades on....m/l broke even across those. I have good long vol stuff for Aug18, out to Oct. Those greened up bigly Thursday. A little more geopoli craziness in the next couple weeks/months will pay me well.

The only ideas I have had lately are 1) US equities would grind up thru earnings season and then slide back after Jackson Hole, and 2) it's worth the 15-25c debit on wide time spreads on VXX and UVXY to try to catch ^VIX pops on the heightened risk environment re: NK and Iran, etc. So, in other words, I am leaning short equities.

Also tuned to general US poli risk via same old shit - Trump investigations, lame Congress, upcoming debt ceiling panic, etc.

I would probly btfd if we got a good one....

What you been up to?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,222
  • Aug 20, 2017 10:25pm Aug 20, 2017 10:25pm
J-Hole week
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,223
  • Aug 22, 2017 9:06pm Aug 22, 2017 9:06pm
bought this diagonal for 6c at the open today. A good finish Friday @ $246-247 and I could net out 15c maybe.....I know, slim pickins but it's over quick and in the never ending upgrind diagonals and calendars like this are easy to win
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,224
  • Edited Aug 23, 2017 12:03am Aug 22, 2017 11:20pm | Edited Aug 23, 2017 12:03am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/barcl...220200495.html

inevitable VXX r/s takes effect tomorrow

the gift would be a Sept spike post r/s, a big price run-up and look to short that with long dated put spread strategeries
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,225
  • Aug 22, 2017 11:59pm Aug 22, 2017 11:59pm
fill 3c to net 20bag?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,226
  • Aug 23, 2017 8:00pm Aug 23, 2017 8:00pm
tried to fill Oct SPY $249/$252 bear calls for 90c credit today, didn't go - want to get something like that on this week or next.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,227
  • Aug 24, 2017 11:05pm Aug 24, 2017 11:05pm
ever never whatever
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,228
  • Aug 24, 2017 11:12pm Aug 24, 2017 11:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}... What you been up to?
Family vacay for a week, mother in law included....

Still thinking about getting some cash together, jumping on a plane and meeting you in Reno, and making a run at them....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #15,229
  • Sep 4, 2017 10:20pm Sep 4, 2017 10:20pm
another Summer almost over....maybe the market will sell off .... gosh I have been waiting so long.....I don't have too many years left....maybe just one more long vol setup....for the Gipper....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,230
  • Sep 5, 2017 1:07am Sep 5, 2017 1:07am
Quoting The Fool
ever never whatever {image}
Hi
its nice to see some TOS strategy !
some question for you:

You expecting huge sell off on SPY based on your Butterfly body ?
Why just not use Ratio Butterfly. +10 +30 +10. looks the same but you dont need extra legs.

Expiration 20October there is only +/- 8points expected move, your butterfly body (strike 220) have realy low Delta around .05.
Based on what you placed your butterfly on 220strike ?
  • #15,231
  • Sep 5, 2017 2:01am Sep 5, 2017 2:01am
Hi The Fool,

I have a little question:

Do you know if I can somehow calculate the expected daily range/volatility for the next 10/20/30 coming days with the help of options for currencies and gold?

Sorry for my english, I hope you know what I mean.
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • #15,232
  • Sep 5, 2017 8:36pm Sep 5, 2017 8:36pm
Quoting adriann
{quote} Hi its nice to see some TOS strategy ! some question for you: You expecting huge sell off on SPY based on your Butterfly body ? Why just not use Ratio Butterfly. +10 +30 +10. looks the same but you dont need extra legs. Expiration 20October there is only +/- 8points expected move, your butterfly body (strike 220) have realy low Delta around .05. Based on what you placed your butterfly on 220strike ?
Ratio you note requires lots of margin that I forego in the combo shown. I did not fill that trade btw. I went instead SPY bull puts, vert Sep13 $246/$245.5 for 11c debit...that's still running but it was worth 20c today I think.

re: flys, I am often shooting those to take off well before expiry, so a wide-ish fly like I show would have an expanded p/l zone a week or so before expiry.

wide flys and wide (time-wise wide) calendars are a good way to catch the grinding pa, but you still need the shit to move if you are using otm strikes. Been pretty hard to make money in flat-lining pa the last months....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,233
  • Sep 5, 2017 8:53pm Sep 5, 2017 8:53pm
Quoting michisuperfr
Hi The Fool, I have a little question: Do you know if I can somehow calculate the expected daily range/volatility for the next 10/20/30 coming days with the help of options for currencies and gold? Sorry for my english, I hope you know what I mean.
yes, definitely
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,234
  • Sep 8, 2017 1:48pm Sep 8, 2017 1:48pm
filled SPY bear calls at the close today - Nov17 $252/255 for 90c credit. Don't wanna slog that out for 2 months so hope for a quick 50% out on hurricanes, earthquakes, nuke war and things of this nature....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,235
  • Sep 13, 2017 10:46am Sep 13, 2017 10:46am
Back home after an eventful summer globetrotting. Cant say I missed much in the markets. Same old shit and nothing has really done anything noteworthy. Broad markets still on the trump train, the world hasn't ended with nuclear war(although it could everyday), and natural disaster season is just making easy money policy even easier. I'm still short crude, short bond yields(although I'm abut to flip those), short the USD(although its almost time to flip that too), and short gold. Nothing really too exciting though and I pretty much just spent money travelling as my trading accounts treaded water.
Anyways, that's all I have to report. God to be back home in Hawaii, most of the rest of the world sucks.
  • #15,236
  • Sep 13, 2017 5:43pm Sep 13, 2017 5:43pm
Quoting Wulfgar
..... back home in Hawaii, most of the rest of the world sucks.
I am with you re: short bonds and short gold, expect the boring markets will continue. Maybe see some shadows behind the curtain re: bonds because I hear Munchin has to dump some UST's & maybe JY will go hawkish (yeah right)....but it'll be slow changes unless something big nasty and major comes out of the blue.

I am kinda looking forward to seeing the Bitcoin options roll out, any month how I hear.......at least that shit moves...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,237
  • Sep 13, 2017 5:45pm Sep 13, 2017 5:45pm
Quoting The Fool
filled SPY bear calls at the close today - Nov17 $252/255 for 90c credit. Don't wanna slog that out for 2 months so hope for a quick 50% out on hurricanes, earthquakes, nuke war and things of this nature....
well this is a rusty spike I wedged up me bum, silly me for betting against the neverending rally
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,238
  • Sep 13, 2017 11:26pm Sep 13, 2017 11:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}well this is a rusty spike I wedged up me bum, silly me for betting against the neverending rally
It aint gonna end until everyone thinks it is never going to end. Too many people are still bearish. I'm thinking we will get to 38K or so in the DOW(just like the Nikkei in the 80s)
  • #15,239
  • Sep 14, 2017 7:24pm Sep 14, 2017 7:24pm
wha goin on wit Bitcoin? I was looking forward to the options on it rolling out in the US exchanges but obvibusly the bastards got together at J-Hole and decided to take it down?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,240
  • Sep 19, 2017 12:18am Sep 19, 2017 12:18am
Cheap tix for October.....RSX puts fly...risk 7c to net 70c max
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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