Newbie Journal

I think the London session will see further selling of Yen as a proxy for Thai Baht

long EUR/JPY @ 148.79, stop 148.49, profit take 149.59

also added profit taking on other 2 positions

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Outstanding limit positions:
Nil

Outstanding open positions:
short NZD/USD @ 0.6643, stop 0.6668, profit take 0.6553
long EUR/USD @ 1.2675, stop 1.2650, profit take 1.2750
long EUR/JPY @ 148.79, stop 148.49, profit take 149.59

Pip Gains todate: -208

Activity now seem to favour some profit taking on long Dollar positions

Will shift my stop for NZD/USD to 0.6623 so at least I recoup 20 pips from yesterday's losses

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Outstanding limit positions:
Nil

Outstanding open positions:
short NZD/USD @ 0.6643, stop 0.6623, profit take 0.6553
long EUR/USD @ 1.2675, stop 1.2650, profit take 1.2750
long EUR/JPY @ 148.79, stop 148.49, profit take 149.59

Pip Gains todate: -208

Attached chart for the rationale behind my long EUR/JPY

stop moved to 148.39

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Outstanding limit positions:
Nil

Outstanding open positions:
short NZD/USD @ 0.6643, stop 0.6623, profit take 0.6553
long EUR/USD @ 1.2675, stop 1.2650, profit take 1.2750
long EUR/JPY @ 148.79, stop 148.39, profit take 149.59

Pip Gains todate: -208

bad trade there... didn't count on yen further strengthening against Euro further weakening... 40 pips loss

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Outstanding limit positions:
Nil

Outstanding open positions:
short NZD/USD @ 0.6643, stop 0.6623, profit take 0.6553
long EUR/USD @ 1.2675, stop 1.2650, profit take 1.2750

Pip Gains todate: -248

But I've got Kiwi dropping again. Should be to about 0.6525 to 0.6500. I'm short 0.6590...probably I'll get out after the first wave and enter heavy after the retrace for the push down in the third wave.

Out of curiosity...are you thinkin what I'm thinkin? That the FOMC rate decision is gonna remain flat and the markets already priced that in? At the moment I can't decide if I'm gonna be in during the decision or if I should exit just prior.

I think markets are priced for a "no hike" decision

However, was the recent Dollar buying a risk aversion behaviour??? or is it placing bets on the outside chance that the Fed does another hike???

I still believe in short kiwi but my 2 biggest concerns are

(1) weak Dollar movements to push kiwi above 66.5 cents

(2) carry trades where JPY, CHF even EUR used to fund NZD purchase

short NZD/USD looking good for now but I think I'll stop at 0.6573 for a 70 pip gain if I can

will re-enter post-FOMC
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Outstanding limit positions:
Nil

Outstanding open positions:
short NZD/USD @ 0.6643, stop 0.6623, profit take 0.6573
long EUR/USD @ 1.2675, stop 1.2650, profit take 1.2750

Pip Gains todate: -248

I hate FOMC decisions...they always screw up the wave. I'm gonna hold for 0.6550 ish probably and/or get out before FOMC.

change of plans..

i see my daily charts supporting a further decline in kiwi

hence, shift stop loss to 0.6603, profit take to 0.6503

could be a long way down if support is broken

add a limit to enter if 0.6607 trades

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Outstanding limit positions:
short NZD/USD @ 0.6607, stop 0.6632, no profit take yet

Outstanding open positions:
short NZD/USD @ 0.6643, stop 0.6603, profit take 0.6503
long EUR/USD @ 1.2675, stop 1.2650, profit take 1.2750

Pip Gains todate: -248

Will be away about 4 hours..

will be back to check it later

...but....its gonna heavily bounce at least once on the way down. My current thought is that the current downward trend is gonna hit 0.6550 <-> 0.6525 and thats where the bounce comes in. Then it'll come back up...maybe even to 0.66 again, and then drop like a rock to 0.65<->0.6480.

So I'm still planning on exiting my short in the 0.6550 <-> 0.6525 range if it starts to turn. And then start my reshorting once it starts to come back up and (hopefully) after FOMC.

:

you were right!!!

it did touch 0.655 region but my profit taking was further!!

shucks
momentum now heading higher so crossing my fingers it doesn't get stopped

will short again if momentum turns

closed long EUR/USD at cost... signals turning bearish both against Dollar and Yen on the hourly.. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Outstanding limit positions:
short NZD/USD @ 0.6607, stop 0.6632, no profit take yet

Outstanding open positions:
short NZD/USD @ 0.6643, stop 0.6603, profit take 0.6503

Pip Gains todate: -248

Just so you know, I'm staying out until after FOMC...even if momentum turns over. Yea....I might miss a move. But the rate decision is either (a) gonna keep the market dead or (b) gonna make it choppy as people position themselves. Like I said...f's up the wave structure.

Definitely a good decision if your depending on waves. Capital preservation beats all...preserve your capital and the right moment will come along. Now tape up those clicky clicky fingers

oh well.. stop finally triggered...

should have exited at 0.657+ regions... always good on hindsight

anyway will await next entry but probably will need to wait till Asian open

40 pips gain on the last trade

also removed my limit order since so close to FOMC

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Outstanding limit positions:
Nil

Outstanding open positions:
Nil

Pip Gains todate: -208

I'm in again


short NZD/USD @ 0.6607, stop 0.6647, no profit take yet

will double up if 0.6637 trades

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Outstanding limit positions:
limit short NZD/USD @ 0.6637, stop 0.6667

Outstanding open positions:
short NZD/USD @ 0.6607, stop 0.6647

Pip Gains todate: -208

But I'm planning on doubling up around 0.6560...if we break that there should be blood in the streets down to 0.6500 and maybe below. There should also be a couple of bounces on the way down which I might play, though bloody FOMC and Kiwi news has f'd up my waves....one reason why I'm really nervous at the moment.

hmm.. i'm thinking a break below 0.6580 worth doubling

London session open could be interesting given NZ release was after London close and in late New York session