Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 436 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #8,701
  • Aug 28, 2017 10:37am Aug 28, 2017 10:37am
Hi Alfonso. I would like to get some clear understanding of this concept. I swing trade using the WEEKLY, D1, and H4 (entry). On the Weekly of GBP/USD, I can see that its in an uptrend, has hit supply and bounced from demand, so demand in control on a weekly curve of 39%. Meanwhile the D1 appears to be in a downtrend, but also gapped today, and has already bounced from supply. My entry timeframe H4 is currently in an uptrend, so can you please explain what is the ideal situation in this circumstance to have a correct entry, so that I will understand the correct side of the trade here?
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  • #8,702
  • Aug 28, 2017 10:59pm Aug 28, 2017 10:59pm
Quoting H-man
Hi Alfonso. I would like to get some clear understanding of this concept. I swing trade using the WEEKLY, D1, and H4 (entry). On the Weekly of GBP/USD, I can see that its in an uptrend, has hit supply and bounced from demand, so demand in control on a weekly curve of 39%. Meanwhile the D1 appears to be in a downtrend, but also gapped today, and has already bounced from supply. My entry timeframe H4 is currently in an uptrend, so can you please explain what is the ideal situation in this circumstance to have a correct entry, so that I will understand...
Weekly demand level in control on GBPUSD, longs at H4 demand zones, there was one H4 CP that is playing out already.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,703
  • Aug 28, 2017 11:09pm Aug 28, 2017 11:09pm
hey there
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  • #8,704
  • Aug 28, 2017 11:11pm Aug 28, 2017 11:11pm
Ryan Air Holdings #RYAAY long bias at monthly and weekly demand level. Long term buy setup in a clear big picture supply and demand uptrend with demand levels being created and supply imbalances being removed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Supply and demand Forex and stocks trading strategy
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,705
  • Aug 28, 2017 11:26pm Aug 28, 2017 11:26pm
Thanks Alfonso. Do you project GBP/USD will hit 1.31960, or more like 1.30000? I appreciate any help at all from anyone! I'm really trying to grasp this.

Thanks!
  • #8,706
  • Aug 29, 2017 4:05am Aug 29, 2017 4:05am
Quoting H-man
Thanks Alfonso. Do you project GBP/USD will hit 1.31960, or more like 1.30000? I appreciate any help at all from anyone! I'm really trying to grasp this. Thanks!
No idea where that price is on GBPUSD sorry, I never ever look at price levels, only supply and demand imbalances. Weekly demand level in control, long bias! Where will it reach from there? Who knows!

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,707
  • Aug 29, 2017 6:45am Aug 29, 2017 6:45am
Hi Alfonso.
I have been really digging at this and would like to ask if my understanding is now correct with regards to Supply and Demand in control. To my understanding using the picture here, when price touches the proximal line of support here where the arrow is on the first test, it is then considered "supply-in-control" for that current timeframe, which I will use as a Weekly here for my higher (swing trade) time frame, correct?

At that point, we are to follow with a trendline once we have p1 and p2, correct?
When that trendline is broken and in this illustration in the picture by the candle I circled, we then wait for price to touch the proximal line of demand, and once it touches the proximal of demand, demand is at that point considered "in control" for the weekly timeframe, but until that happens supply is still in control, correct?

Now, let's just say it touches the proximal line of demand, which puts demand in control on the weekly tf, we then follow with a trendline and take long trades on the D1 and H4 timeframes at areas of demand for the duration of weekly demand having control, correct? We proceed in the long direction until the trendline is broken and price reaches the proximal line of a supply zone on the weekly, which then puts supply back in control and shorts would be taken against supply areas on the D1 and H4 timeframes then?
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  • #8,708
  • Aug 29, 2017 7:35am Aug 29, 2017 7:35am
Alfonso, regarding the questions above, I also forgot to ask about the overall trend and how it works with regards to the concept above, if I have that part correct. I'm asking because it appears that if the overall trend is down but we are at higher timeframe weekly support with demand in control, at that point we would be counter trading the trend by going long on lower timeframes, correct? Sorry for all the questions, but I want to make sure that I follow and understand what you are saying.

Thanks.
  • #8,709
  • Aug 29, 2017 11:52am Aug 29, 2017 11:52am
Quoting H-man
Hi Alfonso. I have been really digging at this and would like to ask if my understanding is now correct with regards to Supply and Demand in control. To my understanding using the picture here, when price touches the proximal line of support here where the arrow is on the first test, it is then considered "supply-in-control" for that current timeframe, which I will use as a Weekly here for my higher (swing trade) time frame, correct? At that point, we are to follow with a trendline once we have p1 and p2, correct? When that trendline is broken and...
Supply and demand in control is pretty simple, it's the last imbalance that is or has been retested. Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,710
  • Aug 29, 2017 11:17pm Aug 29, 2017 11:17pm
New Weekly demand formed on APPLE #APPL around 151-ish. Previous weekly demand level at 143 played out really well. Long bias. Potential weekly demand imbalance being created around 159.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Supply and demand Forex and stocks trading strategy
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,711
  • Aug 30, 2017 11:04pm Aug 30, 2017 11:04pm
Forex cross pair CADJPY is rallying on the weekly and creating brand new demand zones and imbalances for potential longs. In an uptrend supply levels are removed and demand imbalances and zones are being respected. Long bias on CADJPY at weekly demand imbalance or new areas of demand on daily.

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Supply and demand Forex and stocks trading strategy
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,712
  • Aug 30, 2017 11:12pm Aug 30, 2017 11:12pm
Alfonso, thanks for the CAD/JPY analysis. If I am currect, EUR/USD (long) bias is the same as CAD/JPY in that it's creating imbalances and new demand zones which makes it possible for me to go long on daily and weekly demand areas, correct?
  • #8,713
  • Aug 31, 2017 11:26pm Aug 31, 2017 11:26pm
Facebook #FB American Stock weekly and daily demand imbalances. Long bias. Strong weekly demand level on Facebook at 151.96 for long term setups. Longs at weekly and daily demand imbalances. Potential demand being created higher around 166

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Supply and demand Forex and stocks trading strategy
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,714
  • Sep 4, 2017 7:33am Sep 4, 2017 7:33am
Forex cross pair GBPSEK is dropping and creating a brand new supply zone with nested imbalances and levels for potential shorts. In a downtrend demand levels are removed and supply imbalances and levels are respected. Short bias on this Forex currency pair at valid weekly and daily supply imbalances.

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Supply and demand Forex and stocks trading strategy
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,715
  • Sep 5, 2017 12:20am Sep 5, 2017 12:20am
NZDUSD Forex Cross Pair short supply and demand analysis. NZDUSD breaking lower reacting to monthly supply imbalance, lots of room for price to reach weekly demand level much lower around 0.69. Shorts at daily, H4 and weekly supply zones.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Supply and demand Forex and stocks trading strategy
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,716
  • Edited Sep 7, 2017 8:49am Sep 6, 2017 11:50pm | Edited Sep 7, 2017 8:49am
As explained in yesterday's supply and demand analysis for major Forex Cross Pair NZDUSD, shorts at Daily and weekly supply zones. Price dropping as a reaction to the last Daily imbalance, lots of room to drop. Short bias at new levels of supply expecting the void to be filled on its way to monthly demand zone lower. Check out previous NZDUSD supply and demand analysis and previous post. Managing stop loss tightly.

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Supply and demand Forex and stocks trading strategy
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,717
  • Edited 6:36pm Sep 7, 2017 9:39am | Edited 6:36pm
Hi Alfonso.

I understand the imbalances and when the trendlines is broken in uptrend supply zone is created when the imbalance occurs there and so forth in addition the demand zones. I also understand which is in control on the Monthly and Weekly, but I am lost in following how you are determining which timeframes that I can short or long from. I am using MN, W1, and D1 sequence, so I know my entry timeframe is the D1. You sometimes say short or long at h4, daily, and weekly zones, so it confuses me. Are you looking at the trend direction on the H4 and D1 to determine if they are in sync with the MN and W1? From what I have gathered and have been following is that if the Supply is in control on the MN and Weekly, then short at W1 supply zones on the daily chart, is this correct? But, as I stated, I am confused when you say short at daily and weekly and h4, so what determines the ability to short the daily and h4 exactly?


Thanks. Henry
  • #8,718
  • Sep 7, 2017 9:52pm Sep 7, 2017 9:52pm
Quoting H-man
Hi Alfonso. I understand the imbalances and when the trendlines is broken in uptrend supply zone is created when the imbalance occurs there and so forth in addition the demand zones. I also understand which is in control on the Monthly and Weekly, but I am lost in following how you are determining which timeframes that I can short or long from. I am using MN, W1, and D1 sequence, so I know my entry timeframe is the D1. You sometimes say short or long at h4, daily, and weekly zones, so it confuses me. Are you looking at the trend direction on the...
Sorry to confuse you, all that is on my trading plan, as long as you don't have one you will be confused. There are rules to tell me when to trade H4 or D1 imbalances, even weekly imbalances, it's all about having the rules for each scenario.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #8,719
  • Sep 7, 2017 10:50pm Sep 7, 2017 10:50pm
So, I guess I will have to follow your crumbs that you dish out here until I can get up enuff money for the membership. I don't mean that in a bad way either. It's just that I was trying to really learn and not use you for any signal, but I will take any and all freebies in forex that you put out, because I need that trading plan lol. I lost some money today on that NZD/USD pair, because I had the trendline going correctly and jumped in on a bump of the trendline, but it reversed instead of breaking when it reached the demand zone. So, I need those rules, and I guess when you said short at Daily Supply Zones, I should have listened and waited to hit a supply zone on the daily first. Thanks for all of the help that you have shared with me so far, it has been helpful and appreciated!

Take care.

Henry
  • #8,720
  • Sep 8, 2017 9:44pm Sep 8, 2017 9:44pm
Quoting panoramia
As explained in yesterday's supply and demand analysis for major Forex Cross Pair NZDUSD, shorts at Daily and weekly supply zones. Price dropping as a reaction to the last Daily imbalance, lots of room to drop. Short bias at new levels of supply expecting the void to be filled on its way to monthly demand zone lower. Check out previous NZDUSD supply and demand analysis and previous...
Good day Alfonso, i took the short, it drops at first but then it reverse and hit my +SL, it also break daily supply.
I remember u said about high probability trade, we have to watch the dollar index also.

In this case, NZDUSD supply in control but dollar is weak. How you deal with this kind of situation?

Thanks

Regards
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