Welcome to FX Rogue Wave Foreign Exchange Trading methodology. A horizontal channel, straddle type EA.
FX Rogue Wave is an Expert Adviser or EA that I have been working on for several years. An add-on to the popular Foreign Exchange trading software Metatrader 4 used by most Forex brokers.
Why FX Rogue Wave?
In Nature, Oceanic Rogue Waves are an open water phenomenon, in which winds, currents, non-linear phenomena, and other circumstances cause a wave to briefly form that is far larger than the "average" large occurring wave of that time and place.
In Forex trading, we call this a breakout. But, you can see the similarity.
As Rogue Waves are unpredictable in nature, so are breakouts in Forex.
I have designed a tool to assist in profiting from these breakouts and standard trade patterns using nothing but previous price action.
Just as in nature, rogue waves cannot be predicted. To the same extent, I make no claims that FX Rogue Wave can predict price movement.
What it can do is show a visual point of reference to allow traders where wave action has been previously and then trade the current market conditions at the click of a mouse.
Nature is one of my passions and I have witnessed a correlation to the ocean in nature and forex trading. Also, I do not consider myself a professional trader. My other passion is gambling. Over the years, I have been very successful and have incorporated both passions into this EA. Probability and Waves. FX Rogue Wave is a gambling algorithm and should be viewed as such.
The only thing that can validate my theories is trading, so I will let the statistics in back testing with actual data and live trading results speak for themselves. I will not offer something to the public that I am not using personally. You can see the back tests below and live trading on the Forex Factory Trade Explorer.
Concept:
The concept behind FX Rogue Wave is that any market cannot stay stable for long. That is something I think we can all agree on.
When looking at a chart, we see highs, lows, spikes, trends, and ranges. The challenge comes when choosing an entry point in all that chaos.
When placed on a chart, the EA will place guide lines with entry and exit points based on x number of pips from current price. Top of channel a blue line will be created for Long entry point and Bottom of channel will be Red for SHORT entry point. Yellow lines will be created for estimated target close. These lines will move with price action until START button clicked, then the channel will lock in place for duration of trade sequence or until STOP button is clicked.
Using the presumption that the market cannot stay flat for long, it would be a rare occurrence for the market to stay within a 20-30 pip range for a long enough period that at least one of the orders in sequence will eventually catch the breakout and close in profit. FX Rogue Wave does not care what direction the market goes...as long as it goes there!
One order will be placed on chart if an entry line is crossed, LONG order for top entry point being crossed or SHORT order if lower entry point is crossed. Stop loss will be just before the opposing entry point.
If an order closes by reversing and hitting the stop loss, the EA will wait until there is a breach of the same or opposing entry point, in which a new order will be opened at a higher lot size based on order value sequence. Sequence will continue until last order in sequence closes in loss, STOP button is clicked, or sequence losses recovered in profit.
Leverage/Equity requirements for AUTO TRADING - Historical data shown in later posts on this thread show that your account must be able to handle the following based on minimum requirements using the default 8 potential orders in sequence and limit channel to 30 pips to 40 pips.
Potential sequence pattern could be .01, .02, .04, .08, .16, .32, .64 and 1.28 lots in order based if 8 orders in sequence used. To date, all 8 potential orders have yet to be utilized. Most sequences have closed in 6 or less.
Most trade sequences do not require all the available orders to end in profit. With practice, trading with a single order without the martingale is feasible. But, I post the sequence recovery requirements so there are no surprises later.
1:500 Leverage = Approximately $1000.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:400 Leverage = Approximately $1200.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:300 Leverage = Approximately $1400.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:200 Leverage = Approximately $1600.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:100 Leverage = Approximately $2400.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:50 Leverage = Approximately $4000.00 per initial lot size of .01.
Assuming a worst case scenario where 8 trades are allowed in a sequence and those 8 trades all close in loss, thus completing the sequence. 
Even though the above hypothetical sequence would have closed in profit, it took 4 orders to get there.
Example of Recommended Offset Channel Trade with same pattern. Just my opinion.
1. Start Button clicked locking channel in place.
2. Price breaches lower channel line and SHORT order entered at .01 lots.
3. Prices action reverses, triggers Stop Loss and new LONG order entered at .02 lots.
4. Price breaks out of range and closed in profit recovering losses of previous sequence trades.
In this example, the price ranged along the lower boundary of the channel, ranges a bit before moving across upper opposing channel boundary needing only two orders to close in profit.
Typical charts show flat periods followed by strong price movements.
1. Look for charts that have strong patterns of price movements (Waves)
2. look for current period of calm on chosen chart.
3. Load FX Rogue Wave on chart and adjust channel size and stop loss for current period of calm.
4. When price begins to move out of calm period and one of the entry lines is within period of calm, press START.
5. Let FX Rogue Wave do the rest. Or, when profit is shown, click STOP to pocket my pips.
One thing to consider is the market can run flat with price action of previous candles within the red and blue lines, then breakout to a point to reach the yellow target lines. In manual trading, we want to watch for a time when the current price action and previous 4-5 candles are within the red and blue channel guidelines. Then click START. The EA can do the rest.
Another MM option is to start with a minimum account size. Say, $500.00 using a 6 order maximum sequence. $250.00 Risk.50% of deposit risked.
Trade at .01 until the account reaches $1000.00. When $1000 reached, at this point, you are playing with house money.
When account reaches $1000, Increase to .02 which could carry a $500 loss or 100% House money is at risk. Capital is safe. Break even.
When account reaches $1500, Increase to .03 which could carry a $750 loss or 75% House money is at risk. Capital is safe.+50% Profit
When account reaches $2000, Increase to .04 which could carry a $1000 loss or 50% House money is at risk. Capital is safe.+100% Profit
In other words, do not start compounding lot size until your are risking house money.
Everyone trades Forex with different goals in mind. Some want to be bazzilionaires overnight, some want to replace or make their retirement. Me, I just want to make a sustainable daily or weekly income that I can budget from. And, so far, I think that is possible.
Summary:
By creating guidelines on a chart, we start to see a visual reference of probability and that is what FX Rogue Wave was designed for. People have asked me about draw down, profit factors, Risk/Reward ratio's etc. and I need to point out that this is a GAMBLING algorithm.
Yes, it can be set up to operate automatically with no other factors than start time and use 8 orders in sequence to match the results shown in the results in the back test results shown below. But, I like to relate FX Rogue Wave to a Las Vegas style Poker Machine. But instead of choosing cards to keep or throw away, you choose chart patterns that have a higher degree of probability that will win in as few trades as possible. Or, look at Blackjack, and compare an 8 order sequence to a single deck shoe. Played wisely with a martingale, you should have more money when the dealer finishes the deck than when you started. If you do happen to lose, you lose only what you sat down at the table with (your initial deposit). In Las Vegas, the house always wins. You walk in with $1000 and and have many small losses looking for a jackpot.But, by using the algorithm and a basic understanding of charts, you can vastly improve the odds in your favor and have the possibility of long winning runs that can possibly return hundreds of percent return.Double your account, cash out your initial investment and play on house money...AND HAVE FUN!
https://youtu.be/Ftmguf5j_Os
A video of 3 trades over 3 days. Trading sequence automatically initiated at London Market Open (MT4 Time 10:00 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTgg7L7DeVY&t=600s)). First two trade sequences close in profit in first order of trade sequence. 3rd sequence closed in profit 4th order in sequence.Watch for Chart time stamp 09:00 to see trades.
Update 1/25/2018 - I have elected to withdraw my EA from public sale. As I have mentioned before, I just enjoy trading and developed the EA for my personal use. I thought I would give it a go in selling it. But, that has lost it's allure.
Speaking strictly for myself, I learned something interesting over the past few months.
For years, I have been looking for something that worked for "me". So many attempts, so many failures and disappointments. And then when I developed something that worked for me, I wanted to further profit from it by selling it and offering signals. But, what I found was that trading with other peoples money if far more stressful than trading with one's own. Perhaps a fear of failure, a lack of confidence? I do now know which. What I can say is that using the EA to trade for myself is far less stressful and I make better entries when I am only risking my own funds. And much more fun. If I don't feel like trading, I can take the day off and not worry about questions from others.
I share this experience for those who think that trading other peoples money may make you rich. And it very well may, I know it has for several. But be prepared for the increased stress levels and possible sub-conscience changes in your trading.
I really do appreciate the folks who have participated in this thread.
FX Rogue Wave is an Expert Adviser or EA that I have been working on for several years. An add-on to the popular Foreign Exchange trading software Metatrader 4 used by most Forex brokers.
Why FX Rogue Wave?
In Nature, Oceanic Rogue Waves are an open water phenomenon, in which winds, currents, non-linear phenomena, and other circumstances cause a wave to briefly form that is far larger than the "average" large occurring wave of that time and place.
In Forex trading, we call this a breakout. But, you can see the similarity.
As Rogue Waves are unpredictable in nature, so are breakouts in Forex.
I have designed a tool to assist in profiting from these breakouts and standard trade patterns using nothing but previous price action.
Just as in nature, rogue waves cannot be predicted. To the same extent, I make no claims that FX Rogue Wave can predict price movement.
What it can do is show a visual point of reference to allow traders where wave action has been previously and then trade the current market conditions at the click of a mouse.
Nature is one of my passions and I have witnessed a correlation to the ocean in nature and forex trading. Also, I do not consider myself a professional trader. My other passion is gambling. Over the years, I have been very successful and have incorporated both passions into this EA. Probability and Waves. FX Rogue Wave is a gambling algorithm and should be viewed as such.
The only thing that can validate my theories is trading, so I will let the statistics in back testing with actual data and live trading results speak for themselves. I will not offer something to the public that I am not using personally. You can see the back tests below and live trading on the Forex Factory Trade Explorer.
Concept:
The concept behind FX Rogue Wave is that any market cannot stay stable for long. That is something I think we can all agree on.
When looking at a chart, we see highs, lows, spikes, trends, and ranges. The challenge comes when choosing an entry point in all that chaos.
When placed on a chart, the EA will place guide lines with entry and exit points based on x number of pips from current price. Top of channel a blue line will be created for Long entry point and Bottom of channel will be Red for SHORT entry point. Yellow lines will be created for estimated target close. These lines will move with price action until START button clicked, then the channel will lock in place for duration of trade sequence or until STOP button is clicked.
Using the presumption that the market cannot stay flat for long, it would be a rare occurrence for the market to stay within a 20-30 pip range for a long enough period that at least one of the orders in sequence will eventually catch the breakout and close in profit. FX Rogue Wave does not care what direction the market goes...as long as it goes there!
One order will be placed on chart if an entry line is crossed, LONG order for top entry point being crossed or SHORT order if lower entry point is crossed. Stop loss will be just before the opposing entry point.
If an order closes by reversing and hitting the stop loss, the EA will wait until there is a breach of the same or opposing entry point, in which a new order will be opened at a higher lot size based on order value sequence. Sequence will continue until last order in sequence closes in loss, STOP button is clicked, or sequence losses recovered in profit.
Leverage/Equity requirements for AUTO TRADING - Historical data shown in later posts on this thread show that your account must be able to handle the following based on minimum requirements using the default 8 potential orders in sequence and limit channel to 30 pips to 40 pips.
Potential sequence pattern could be .01, .02, .04, .08, .16, .32, .64 and 1.28 lots in order based if 8 orders in sequence used. To date, all 8 potential orders have yet to be utilized. Most sequences have closed in 6 or less.
Most trade sequences do not require all the available orders to end in profit. With practice, trading with a single order without the martingale is feasible. But, I post the sequence recovery requirements so there are no surprises later.
1:500 Leverage = Approximately $1000.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:400 Leverage = Approximately $1200.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:300 Leverage = Approximately $1400.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:200 Leverage = Approximately $1600.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:100 Leverage = Approximately $2400.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:50 Leverage = Approximately $4000.00 per initial lot size of .01.
Assuming a worst case scenario where 8 trades are allowed in a sequence and those 8 trades all close in loss, thus completing the sequence.
- In this example, using a 30 pip channel, a loss of approximately $765.00 could occur.
- If you have $1000 in an account, that would equate to a 76% loss, or pretty close to a blown account. But in a $10,000 account, that only equates to a 7.65% loss.
- Draw down is relative to account size, channel size used, and base lot size.
Back test shows that the EA can run for months and years before an 8 order sequence loss might occur. But know that it is inevitable, Here is my plan. Plus, I monitor all trades and will manually take profit or close losing trades to protect the overall account health.
- Start an account with the minimum required. I am using a 1:500 leverage account. So, the minimum needed is $1000.00 for an account with this leverage. We will call this the TRADING ACCOUNT.
- Increase initial lot size of TRADING ACCOUNT in increments of .01 per $1000 until a daily or weekly income is reached that you are comfortable with in the TRADING ACCOUNT. For me, my personal goal is $10,000
- Once that level is reached, begin making daily or weekly withdrawals into a 2nd account as a backup fund. Or SEED ACCOUNT.
- Once SEED ACCOUNT balance is equal to TRADING ACCOUNT level ($10,000), you can then stop funding the SEED Account and begin making daily/weekly withdrawals from the TRADING ACCOUNT as INCOME.
Should there be a massive loss in the TRADING ACCOUNT, you can immediately transfer funds from the SEED ACCOUNT to the TRADING ACCOUNT, resume normal trading again, re-funding the SEED ACCOUNT until equilibrium is achieved and start making INCOME withdrawals again from the TRADING ACCOUNT. Maybe even having 2 or more SEED ACCOUNTS. If accurate trades are made each and every time, a SEED ACCOUNT should not be necessary. But, I would rather have a backup and not need it, than to need it and not have it.
Preferred Trading Method - Manual Use
Even though FX Rogue Wave can be used on any chart or market condition, the method I prefer to trade with my FX Rogue Wave algorithm I like to call the offset channel.
It does not use the high and lows of previous candles, but is offset to a degree where one of the channel boundaries is in the center of the highs and lows of previous candles. I have yet to find an equation that can consistently judge what determines a level price range, so visual judgement by the user's human brain becomes the most powerful indicator in the equation. This keeps true breakouts of the chart channel within reach without unnecessary orders being placed risking high draw down. As the channel moves with price action, wait until price action flattens out then watch for the pattern. By choosing more accurate entry points, you can reduce risk by using fewer orders in sequence. This reduces account balance needed drastically to use FX Rogue Wave.
Minimum for trading a single chart when limiting to 4 trades in a sequence. Obvious difference.
1:500 Leverage = Approximately $100.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:400 Leverage = Approximately $120.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:300 Leverage = Approximately $150.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:200 Leverage = Approximately $200.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:100 Leverage = Approximately $300.00 per initial lot size of .01.
1:50 Leverage = Approximately $500.00 per initial lot size of .01.
Example of typical channel trade
1. Start Button clicked locking channel in place.
2. Price breaches lower channel line and SHORT order entered at .01 lots.
3. Prices action reverses, triggers Stop Loss and new LONG order entered at .02 lots.
4. Prices action reverses, triggers Stop Loss and new SHORT order entered at .04 lots.
5. Prices action reverses, triggers Stop Loss and new LONG order entered at .08 lots.
6. Price breaks out of range and closed in profit recovering losses of previous sequence trades
Even though the above hypothetical sequence would have closed in profit, it took 4 orders to get there.
Example of Recommended Offset Channel Trade with same pattern. Just my opinion.
1. Start Button clicked locking channel in place.
2. Price breaches lower channel line and SHORT order entered at .01 lots.
3. Prices action reverses, triggers Stop Loss and new LONG order entered at .02 lots.
4. Price breaks out of range and closed in profit recovering losses of previous sequence trades.
In this example, the price ranged along the lower boundary of the channel, ranges a bit before moving across upper opposing channel boundary needing only two orders to close in profit.
Typical charts show flat periods followed by strong price movements.
1. Look for charts that have strong patterns of price movements (Waves)
2. look for current period of calm on chosen chart.
3. Load FX Rogue Wave on chart and adjust channel size and stop loss for current period of calm.
4. When price begins to move out of calm period and one of the entry lines is within period of calm, press START.
5. Let FX Rogue Wave do the rest. Or, when profit is shown, click STOP to pocket my pips.
One thing to consider is the market can run flat with price action of previous candles within the red and blue lines, then breakout to a point to reach the yellow target lines. In manual trading, we want to watch for a time when the current price action and previous 4-5 candles are within the red and blue channel guidelines. Then click START. The EA can do the rest.
Another MM option is to start with a minimum account size. Say, $500.00 using a 6 order maximum sequence. $250.00 Risk.50% of deposit risked.
Trade at .01 until the account reaches $1000.00. When $1000 reached, at this point, you are playing with house money.
When account reaches $1000, Increase to .02 which could carry a $500 loss or 100% House money is at risk. Capital is safe. Break even.
When account reaches $1500, Increase to .03 which could carry a $750 loss or 75% House money is at risk. Capital is safe.+50% Profit
When account reaches $2000, Increase to .04 which could carry a $1000 loss or 50% House money is at risk. Capital is safe.+100% Profit
In other words, do not start compounding lot size until your are risking house money.
Everyone trades Forex with different goals in mind. Some want to be bazzilionaires overnight, some want to replace or make their retirement. Me, I just want to make a sustainable daily or weekly income that I can budget from. And, so far, I think that is possible.
Summary:
By creating guidelines on a chart, we start to see a visual reference of probability and that is what FX Rogue Wave was designed for. People have asked me about draw down, profit factors, Risk/Reward ratio's etc. and I need to point out that this is a GAMBLING algorithm.
Yes, it can be set up to operate automatically with no other factors than start time and use 8 orders in sequence to match the results shown in the results in the back test results shown below. But, I like to relate FX Rogue Wave to a Las Vegas style Poker Machine. But instead of choosing cards to keep or throw away, you choose chart patterns that have a higher degree of probability that will win in as few trades as possible. Or, look at Blackjack, and compare an 8 order sequence to a single deck shoe. Played wisely with a martingale, you should have more money when the dealer finishes the deck than when you started. If you do happen to lose, you lose only what you sat down at the table with (your initial deposit). In Las Vegas, the house always wins. You walk in with $1000 and and have many small losses looking for a jackpot.But, by using the algorithm and a basic understanding of charts, you can vastly improve the odds in your favor and have the possibility of long winning runs that can possibly return hundreds of percent return.Double your account, cash out your initial investment and play on house money...AND HAVE FUN!
https://youtu.be/Ftmguf5j_Os
A video of 3 trades over 3 days. Trading sequence automatically initiated at London Market Open (MT4 Time 10:00 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTgg7L7DeVY&t=600s)). First two trade sequences close in profit in first order of trade sequence. 3rd sequence closed in profit 4th order in sequence.Watch for Chart time stamp 09:00 to see trades.
Update 1/25/2018 - I have elected to withdraw my EA from public sale. As I have mentioned before, I just enjoy trading and developed the EA for my personal use. I thought I would give it a go in selling it. But, that has lost it's allure.
Speaking strictly for myself, I learned something interesting over the past few months.
For years, I have been looking for something that worked for "me". So many attempts, so many failures and disappointments. And then when I developed something that worked for me, I wanted to further profit from it by selling it and offering signals. But, what I found was that trading with other peoples money if far more stressful than trading with one's own. Perhaps a fear of failure, a lack of confidence? I do now know which. What I can say is that using the EA to trade for myself is far less stressful and I make better entries when I am only risking my own funds. And much more fun. If I don't feel like trading, I can take the day off and not worry about questions from others.
I share this experience for those who think that trading other peoples money may make you rich. And it very well may, I know it has for several. But be prepared for the increased stress levels and possible sub-conscience changes in your trading.
I really do appreciate the folks who have participated in this thread.
