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FED Watch Tool




what will the FED do in a few weeks?

Market expects nothing....

Hi Mate,

thank you very much :-)


It started in 2011 with the Shangri-La thread which I hid in the members lounge: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=329948

but decided in 2013 to go more public :-)


Wish you the best.....

EURUSD daily TF

this is the bearish count - 5 red waves up finished

on the chart displayed are the sentiment data derived from option/future traders. They are mainly trend-followers and get roosted at the end of trend.

Displayed is the bullish sentiment in EURUSD.


The bearish alternative count would show, that the top is not the wave red 5 but only the top of the subwave 3 of red 3.

The whole movement up from the very low is full of confusing waves. I can literally come up with half a dozen of interpretations.

E.g.: look at the blue wave B: it can be counted as corrective move, but also as impulsive easily. For some statistical reasons I have it labeled as a B wave up of a broad wave 2 down.

When the red channel is broken watch the 1640 area (no business zone) and subsequent 1440 area for support. This is volume-wise.

The 1730 support shelf is interesting, too, but may proof to be weak. 1730-1740 coincides with another channel line

The Stranded ISIS Bus Convoy That No One Knows What To Do With

makes me and surely enough President Putin smile:

Trump Asks That $8 Billion Harvey "Down Payment" Be Added To Debt-Ceiling Bill


what a farce this is - they have enough money to finance any and every war on earth, but they have to beg for money for the victims of the hurricane. What a sad country the USA had become.

Take a look at the debt:

Russia is on the right side of the diagram, USA left axis.

The government of the USA fritters away the future of their children. With this strategy everybody can impose that he is a hero, can't he?

Russia only has around 0.1% of the debt the USA has.

Does that ring a bell?

Even when you attribute the GDP, the debt to GDP for the USA is a staggering 106, whereas Russia has a reasonable 16

I hope that the irony of this story did not get lost:

The controversial deal was struck in return for the bodies of 9 Lebanese soldiers, kidnapped by ISIS in 2014

and further:

On Friday the Syrian and Lebanese governments extracted another concession as part of negotiations over the fate of the convoy: ISIS handed over the body of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard officer to Hezbollah.

Do I get this right: the deal was done so that 10 corpses could be brought home, and therefore hundreds of armed ISIS slaughtermen can run free?

What a crazy world we are living......

Are the Crash Gurus again on the wrong side of the coin or are $BP levels of 50% for an important Low necessary ??

Sixer

Basically speaking: we will see ROFL

mathematically speaking with regard to the chart in the middle:

a) as with any momentum indicator you also should pay attention to the fact, that they can remain at low/high levels longer as we can stay solvent

b) perspective will help - always a good idea to look FAR to the left side, and not only 1 year:

take, e.g., the period May to September 2015: do you think it was a good idea to bet on a momentum indicator?

see here: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24...d=p74831101581

and here you have all on one chart for the last 5 years

do you see what happened in August 2015 with the $BPSPX? They got outright bullish, whereas the SP500 did not advance but dropped.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24...d=p44937882769

Predicting Financial Markets: Comparing Survey, News, Twitter and Search Engine Data

very interesting paper, especially with regards to the DSI, which was tested also


the problem is:

sometimes, when the sentiment indicators are 2 or 3 SD's away from the mean, one can nearly pinpoint a move (sideways phases???), and other times you will burn your fingers because mood will stay very high/low over a longer period and price keeps on marching in trend direction

EURUSD

nothing to see in the TIFF COT Data this week - nearly same data as last week

Hi infinitus, would like your opinion on NZD/USD. I think it looks very bearish, a move to low 0.70s to high 0.69s seems possible?

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Hi MoneyFocus,

from Sentiment side:

Option Traders are at around 40% bulls - so no clear signal from this side. They have become a bit more bearish the last days. But from this side it can go both ways.

from TIFF COT Analysis:

two weeks ago the Dealers had record net short positions, whereas Leveraged Money had record net long positions. Both parties are reducing now their exposure significantly.

Open interest is significantly down, whereas trading volume has gone up significantly (judging from the /6N ). This alone should call for more downside pressure.

As per the CBOE report: the largest 4 traders (which have a good track record as I see) are net heavily short. From this point the direction may be further down.

Forex Retail Trader were short since June 8th, got burned, held to their positions all the time and are now net long. That calls for further declining price, too.


Here you can see my historical/long term counts of NZDUSD, which have been right so far:

https://singulorum001.blogspot.de/se...%20long%20term


The movement from the 0,606 low up has so far been very corrective/overlapping. Maybe we are building an ABC-flat up.

In this ABC we are in wave B, which itself may unfold as an ABC-flat down.

In this flat down, we may be in impulsive wave C down. Target would be ideally between 0,66 to 0,635

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Can you find the break in logic in this?

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Two Sides of the Same Coin

excellent article

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