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The Paradox System

  • #11,101
  • Aug 31, 2017 10:42am Aug 31, 2017 10:42am
Quoting SolitudeFx
{quote} Would it be to never assume anything. I believe I came to the assumption that my entry was the lower high and that the market would drop with the Sar attached. Ema was also still sliding under smooth which shot the market up close to the BB. Regards, John
The rule is "never trade from center". With your entry you had both the DB/SAR on the bottom and after 40 pips going up you pulled the trigger with the SAR lacking the DB. This means higher high for the DB. Your trade went against you 20 pips. Without the rules for your entries you are at risk; especially with the ROMAR trend on all charts. So from now on apply the rules for all of your entries and this will save you a lot of heart aches in the future. If you don't know the rules then study them until you know them all in memory.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #11,102
  • Aug 31, 2017 2:29pm Aug 31, 2017 2:29pm
The rule is "never trade from center".

and the reason being showing below. hesitation lead to waiting too long too late or sometimes too early, in my case both! i thought i had this sussed. how wrong am I.
Don't let complacency ruin the game, THIS SYSTEM IS OUTSTANDING unless you let your guard down and break the "rules"
todays losing trade by 3 pips because i was complacent...............

Fine tuning entries is required for next lesson
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Long off H2 DB and H4 PSAR.PNG Size: 71 KB
Stop killing our Oceans, Stop using single use plastics.
  • #11,103
  • Aug 31, 2017 4:59pm Aug 31, 2017 4:59pm
Quoting jakdan
The rule is "never trade from center". and the reason being showing below. hesitation lead to waiting too long too late or sometimes too early, in my case both! i thought i had this sussed. how wrong am I. Don't let complacency ruin the game, THIS SYSTEM IS OUTSTANDING unless you let your guard down and break the "rules" todays losing trade by 3 pips because i was complacent............... Fine tuning entries is required for next lesson {image}
Yep - When you're late for dinner then you wait for the next meal. Which was the D/B - SAR for the Parabolic. Whoops - you missed that with the Parabolic being resistance...
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #11,104
  • Aug 31, 2017 7:10pm Aug 31, 2017 7:10pm
Hello fellow traders. I am taking a short trade again tonight and I hope that I am not making the same mistake and trading from the middle with the
db/sar on the bottom but I believe this is a different scenario with the parabolic so if I'm breaking the rules please let me know. Thanks

Date: August 31/2017
Session: Asian

Daily:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing: Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow: Up
Last DB Attachment: Top with Sar
Last Sar Attachment: Top with Db
Fibo up or down: Down

Notes: Horsemen, Romar, Ema uptrend. Fibo red. Db with Sar
at the top. Recent hit on 23.6 support.

4 HR:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance

Notes: Market at purple resistance with the Horsemen turning
down as resistance.

2 HR:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing: Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow: Down
Last DB Attachment: Bottom
Last Sar Attachment: Bottom
Fibo up or down: Down

Notes: Market hit bb and 50 fib with db/sar running together and regular
divergence. Horsemen downtrend.

1 HR:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing: Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow: Down
Last DB Attachment: Bottom
Last Sar Attachment: Top
Fibo up or down: Up

Notes: Db/Sar at the bottom fibo with regular divergence. Sar broke away from Db and
came up to the 38.2 and just shy of the parabolic. Ema sliding over Romar. Purple crossed white
followed by purple smooth cross 2 bars later.

Final Notes for all four charts: We are in consolidation with the charts not in agreement so we are
looking to sell from resistance or buy from support. Sar/db did not attach at the parabolic
deadly stopper.

Entry: Waiting for market to come up to h2 resistance and short at the parabolic and 23.6. Sar did
not attach at the parabolic so the market can come down to get lower low with the db/sar.

Rules: 1. Consolidation so trading is both ways from support and resistance.
2. Parabolic is a deadly stopper and Sar did not attach.

Went short at 131.153
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy H2.png Size: 79 KB
The quieter you become, the more that you can hear.
  • #11,105
  • Sep 1, 2017 4:22am Sep 1, 2017 4:22am
"When you're late for dinner then you wait for the next meal." This is very profound, very insightful, very helpful and obviously very succinctly phrased...which makes it all the more helpful. Thank you for that. I needed it!
  • #11,106
  • Sep 1, 2017 4:36am Sep 1, 2017 4:36am
Quoting SolitudeFx
Hello fellow traders. I am taking a short trade again tonight and I hope that I am not making the same mistake and trading from the middle with the db/sar on the bottom but I believe this is a different scenario with the parabolic so if I'm breaking the rules please let me know. Thanks Date: August 31/2017 Session: Asian Daily: ROMAR - Support EMA - Support PSAR - Support Check List: Last MACD 0 crossing: Up Last EMA Alert Arrow: Up Last DB Attachment: Top with Sar Last Sar Attachment: Top with Db Fibo up or down: Down Notes: Horsemen, Romar, Ema...
Another Rule you could add: A hit on the parabolic on any chart is almost always an entry, with confluence, which you had with the H4 Smooth & the H2 38.2 fibo. (see post 307).
  • #11,107
  • Sep 1, 2017 5:25am Sep 1, 2017 5:25am
Quoting Therapsid
{quote} Another Rule you could add: A hit on the parabolic on any chart is almost always an entry, with confluence, which you had with the H4 Smooth & the H2 38.2 fibo. (see post 307).
Good point Mark, but today is NFP......could go anywhere


Cheers,
Andy
From the ashes of disaster grow the roses of success - Grandpa Potts, 1968
  • #11,108
  • Edited 7:27am Sep 1, 2017 7:11am | Edited 7:27am
NEWS: High Impact USD 08:30
Wednesday Trading Plan 17:30

Daily:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
Psar - Support

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up
Last DB Attachment - Top at 131.691
Last SAR Attachment - Topwith DB at 131.691
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: Fibo flipped on the last Daily candle. DB/SAR attached at 0.0 with both divergences. 4 horsemen strongly up in trend as support. 23.6 Support as well. Market imbalance with Purple.

H4:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
Psar - Support

Checklist:

Last DB Attachment - Top 131.691
Last SAR Attachment - Top with DB at 131.691
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: Red Fibo with DB/SAR at 0.0 with both divergences attached. Market was consolidating at the top with a bump up 8-10 pips like Dana taught. White crossed Purple to eliminate Parabolic support. Current H4 candle bounce off confluence of Parabolic and 23.6. After Parabolic is eliminated price will do one of two things; break it or bounce off it. Bollinger Bands converging. 23.6 is very strong support in this case.

H2:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
Psar - Support

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down
Last DB Attachment - Bottom at 130.900
Last SAR Attachment - Bottom with DB at 130.900
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: Heavy consolidation was in place at the top of the Fibo before the turn downwards. Purple, White and Smooth have crossed and heading down but EMA is still below and can slide under Purple. DB attachment at 130.900 with the price tag, at the 38.2. Parabolic is in the process of flipping on this candle but it will not close for about half an hour so it is not locked in. We had MACD arrow down before the EMA arrow, the rule states a major retracement is likely in the future. ROMAR exiting the Band/trading zone.

H1:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance
Psar - Resistance

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down
Last MA Alert Arrow - down
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: The H1 chart is down in a consolidated downtrend for ROMAR support. EMA slid over Purple to keep the swing down intact as market bounced off the Parabolic resistance. ROMAR is near, 10 pips below the most recent low. The H1 chart is down at the moment.

Final Notes: Daily Fibo flip during uptrend. Market heading down to rebalance. H2 is in the process of changing the swing. H2 DB attached at 38.2, H1 lower Bollinger Band hit along with 61.8, and H4 PSAR and 23.6. Waiting for the new daily candle to make adjustments as the big picture makes everything clearer.

22:00 Adjustments: Daily open above Purple and still imbalanced. White and 23.6 provide a cluster of support confluence. Daily Fibo flip to red. 4 horsemen in strong trend. H4 has Smooth at Purple crossing. Parabolic support is already eliminated but market can still bounce off it. EMA and 23.6 are strong supports for the market. H2 open candle above EMA and Smooth. White at the crossing of Purple and EMA is just under Smooth holding back the swing down by not crossing. MACD still below 0 and SAR attachment on top. Last EMA arrow was up. SAR attachment on top. 23.6 strong support. H1 has Parabolic flipping to support but not locked in. EMA at Purple crossing with Smooth at White crossing. Bollinger Bands are tight.

Entry: Long - Woke up and waited for news to be over. I went long on the H2 DB attachment on bottom with the market after H1 had market go below ROMAR support and Fibo flipped. Bollinger Band hit on the H2 and with ROMAR out of the trading zone the lower band is support. H1 close below ROMAR support, meaning it must get above as a rule. H1 Fibo flip, H4 DB attachment on bottom and Daily balanced with Purple. H2 ROMAR has the power for the up so I bought low with confluence of strong support of 23.6 on the Daily.

Long - just before 10:00 open candle.


Rules:

If DB is attached on bottom, the next attachment is on top and vice versa.
In consolidation trading is from the bottom up, and from the top down.
If market gets below ROMAR support it must return back above.

Evaluation: Not a bad trade and per the rules, but trading at the end of the overlap with only New York Open makes it more likely the trade will take longer. In this trade I just followed the DB, referencing other charts for confluence. This was a trade really from the bottom, which when I took there indeed were 40+ pips to the H2 Parabolic resistance, but not later when Tokyo opened.. What provided added confidence for me was H1 ROMAR sliding under EMA as market went below it twice and returned back above, and crucially, the 23.6 on the daily which held strong support as market was barely able to remain near it.

Anyway, TP +40.

edit: I mentioned "price" in my entry, editing now to say "market" instead as price doesn't matter - which I know, but I was just still sleepy when I went to check my charts and wrote my entry. MARKET, not price, sorry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,109
  • Sep 1, 2017 7:58am Sep 1, 2017 7:58am
I don't say this lightly, but I feel humbled by the power of this system. Unbelievable.
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #11,110
  • Sep 1, 2017 8:37am Sep 1, 2017 8:37am
Quoting SolitudeFx
Hello fellow traders. I am taking a short trade again tonight and I hope that I am not making the same mistake and trading from the middle with the db/sar on the bottom but I believe this is a different scenario with the parabolic so if I'm breaking the rules please let me know. Thanks Date: August 31/2017 Session: Asian Daily: ROMAR - Support EMA - Support PSAR - Support Check List: Last MACD 0 crossing: Up Last EMA Alert Arrow: Up Last DB Attachment: Top with Sar Last Sar Attachment: Top with Db Fibo up or down: Down Notes: Horsemen, Romar, Ema...
Self Evaluation

Looking back on this trade I'm not really sure what to think but I'll give it a go. Maybe due to NFP there was not the volatility to go the full 40 before the news. The trade came within 8 pips of take profit before heading North and Db attaching shortly before nfp. Ema was in a slider so it looks the news definately went with the paradox. I left my trade open to hit either sl or tp and the ema slider got me there even in red news which is very impressive. I know to close my trade at least 5 minutes before on a live account but with demo I believe we let it run to either sl or tp. I'm thinking that although I traded from the parabolic it may still have been somewhat from the middle so I will really be working on paying greater attention to the db/sar. Appreciate any feedback.

Trade result: +40
The quieter you become, the more that you can hear.
  • #11,111
  • Sep 1, 2017 9:38am Sep 1, 2017 9:38am
Quoting onejester
I don't say this lightly, but I feel humbled by the power of this system. Unbelievable.
Blessed is the word my friend. me too
Stop killing our Oceans, Stop using single use plastics.
  • #11,112
  • Sep 1, 2017 11:28am Sep 1, 2017 11:28am
Quoting SolitudeFx
{quote} Self Evaluation Looking back on this trade I'm not really sure what to think but I'll give it a go. Maybe due to NFP there was not the volatility to go the full 40 before the news. The trade came within 8 pips of take profit before heading North and Db attaching shortly before nfp. Ema was in a slider so it looks the news definately went with the paradox. I left my trade open to hit either sl or tp and the ema slider got me there even in red news which is very impressive. I know to close my trade at least 5 minutes before on a live account...
go to last month's nonfarm event, and see what shinny said and how paradox work. you will understand. paradox amaze me again. OMG! last month i study what shinny said many time and today everything is happen again!
  • #11,113
  • Sep 1, 2017 12:08pm Sep 1, 2017 12:08pm
Quoting SolitudeFx
{quote} Self Evaluation Looking back on this trade I'm not really sure what to think but I'll give it a go. Maybe due to NFP there was not the volatility to go the full 40 before the news. The trade came within 8 pips of take profit before heading North and Db attaching shortly before nfp. Ema was in a slider so it looks the news definately went with the paradox. I left my trade open to hit either sl or tp and the ema slider got me there even in red news which is very impressive. I know to close my trade at least 5 minutes before on a live account...
One of the great mistakes traders make with demo is the same reason you did. Demo is used as a life account in learning how to trade. It is learning how to become 80% with a demo; it is then you are ready for a live account. It is apparent rules mean nothing to you. It is apparent your ego has taken control of your learning which is a bad example. Bottom line - your trade was a losing trade right from entry.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #11,114
  • Sep 1, 2017 12:43pm Sep 1, 2017 12:43pm
Quoting dove_alliance
{quote} One of the great mistakes traders make with demo is the same reason you did. Demo is used as a life account in learning how to trade. It is learning how to become 80% with a demo; it is then you are ready for a live account. It is apparent rules mean nothing to you. It is apparent your ego has taken control of your learning which is a bad example. Bottom line - your trade was a losing trade right from entry.
Ok thanks Dove. I will study harder with the rules before posting any more plans. Have a great weekend!!
The quieter you become, the more that you can hear.
  • #11,115
  • Sep 1, 2017 3:20pm Sep 1, 2017 3:20pm
Ideally one should eliminate risk to the point where it becomes negligible, or as minimal as possible. Although 80-90% of news releases go with the trend, you've maybe read Dana mentioning earlier that there is no amount of money that will get him to trade during a news release. Especially not NFP, the BOJ rate, or the FED rate news.

I guess the second point would be to treat Demo as Live because "how you trade on Demo leaks over to Live". What I sometimes do is I pretend I'm trading a $100,000 live account, risking 2% or $2,000 per trade, and that this money is my main income - trading. Then I ask, with all the opportunities that are presented, would I risk $2,000 trading one of USDs most prominent news releases - or during a setup with which I am unsure.

Trading IS emotions, and it is good for us all that the Paradox aids us in removing them because we should be trading what "is", and once one learns all the "what is" scenarios and variables of the Paradox, emotions are eliminated for the most part - or kept under very tight control. Essentially, it's a battle with yourself, and you have to teach yourself to win those if you want to be successful in trading.

Just some thoughts I recalled having going back and reading the thread, which is not solely for trading but life as well, I think.
  • #11,116
  • Sep 2, 2017 11:57pm Sep 2, 2017 11:57pm
Quoting dove_alliance
{quote} One of the great mistakes traders make with demo is the same reason you did. Demo is used as a life account in learning how to trade. It is learning how to become 80% with a demo; it is then you are ready for a live account. It is apparent rules mean nothing to you. It is apparent your ego has taken control of your learning which is a bad example. Bottom line - your trade was a losing trade right from entry.
Again I really appreciate your advice as a master trader. I am a novice and when you point out my flaws I'm overwhelmed by your comment to us traders. I was not even aware of my ego taking over until you pointed it out. But yes you are right. I wanted a trade that fit into my thinking and you called me out on it. I take no offence and am greatful that you would take of your free time to redirect me. I hope to post more plans within the rules and already note that your grinding me down to get rid of my subjective trades. I can't thank you enough for not telling me what I wanted to hear in a losing scenario. God bless brother.
The quieter you become, the more that you can hear.
  • #11,117
  • Sep 3, 2017 11:13am Sep 3, 2017 11:13am
The spread on my EJ chart jumped to 10 pips. I was pretty sure it was the normal spread yesterday and throughout this day. There was a high impact news today regarding Nokor conducting a supposedly nuclear missile test. Could it be because of that? If it is it's the first time I've seen market reacting to news on Sunday. I'm currently practicing on how to write a trading plan but this news made me think twice and I thought it would be a no trading day tomorrow. We'll just have to see how the market is going to behave tomorrow.
Patience and Discipline, these are the Holy Grail.
  • #11,118
  • Sep 3, 2017 1:11pm Sep 3, 2017 1:11pm
Quoting marcnathan88
The spread on my EJ chart jumped to 10 pips. I was pretty sure it was the normal spread yesterday and throughout this day. There was a high impact news today regarding Nokor conducting a supposedly nuclear missile test. Could it be because of that? If it is it's the first time I've seen market reacting to news on Sunday. I'm currently practicing on how to write a trading plan but this news made me think twice and I thought it would be a no trading day tomorrow. We'll just have to see how the market is going to behave tomorrow.
The spread always jumps up like that when the market shuts. It doesn't react when the market is closed.

Cheers

Shaun
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #11,119
  • Edited 5:32pm Sep 3, 2017 5:15pm | Edited 5:32pm
Hello everyone, this is my first trading plan.

Daily :
ROMAR : Support
EMA : Support
PSAR : Support
Checklist :
Last MACD 0 crossing : UP
Last EMA Alert Arrow : UP
Last DB Attachment : TOP with SAR at 131.691
Last SAR Attachment : TOP with DB at 131.691
Fibonacci : DOWN
Notes : 4 horsmen are up at the top of the red FIBO. Macd is still up and market opened below EMA suport. Romar inside the BB.

H4 :
ROMAR : Support
EMA : Resistance
PSAR : Resistance
Checklist :
Last DB Attachment : Bottom with SAR at 130.055
Last SAR Attachment : Bottom with DB at 130.055
Fibonacci : Down
Notes : 4 Horsmen are down with DB at the bottom and both divergence attached. ROMAR is outside the trading area so BB is support.

H2 :
ROMAR : Support
EMA : Resistance
PSAR : Resistance
Checklist :
Last MACD 0 crossing : DOWN
Last EMA Alert Arrow : DOWN
Last DB Attachment : Bottom with SAR at 130.055
Last SAR Attachment : Bottom with DB at 130.055
Fibonacci : UP
Notes : 4 horsmen in a swing down against ROMAR support. Market opened with huge gap down. market out of balance. FIBO FLIP.

H1 :
ROMAR : Resistance
EMA : Resistance
PSAR : Resistance
Checklist :
Fibonacci : UP
Last EMA Alert Arrow : DOWN
Notes : H1 in a full downtrend with green FIBO. EMA crossed ROMAR for the DOWN.

Final Notes : Market in a downswing on H1/H2/H4 but with the daily being up and ROMAR still being support on H2 and H4. Fibo flipped on H2 which is entry in consolidation with added confluence on H4 ROMAR support with a hit off H4 BB at 61.8 FIBO and daily opened below EMA support.


Entry: According to my plan I went long off support at 130.226.
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  • #11,120
  • Sep 4, 2017 8:44am Sep 4, 2017 8:44am
NEWS: Medium Impact EUR 3:00
Sunday Trading Plan 17:30

Daily:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
Psar - Support

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up
Last DB Attachment - Top at 131.691
Last SAR Attachment - Topwith DB at 131.691
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: 4 horsemen up and White is at Purple crossing. Major gap down, about 66 pips with open below EMA, above Parabolic and at 38.2 support.

H4:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance
Psar - Resistance

Checklist:

Last DB Attachment - Bottom at 130.055
Last SAR Attachment - Bottom with DB at 130.055
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: Consolidated downtrend for ROMAR support with 4 horsemen aligned downwards. Gap down and open candle below ROMAR support and Bollinger Band. The rule is market must return back above ROMAR because it is support. 61.8 support for the open and both divergences attached on bottom.

H2:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance
Psar - Resistance

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down
Last DB Attachment - Bottom at 130.055
Last SAR Attachment - Bottom with DB at 130.055
Fibonacci - Green

Notes: Fibo was green before open and bumped down with the gap. Open below Bollinger Band with 4 horsemen opening down. As a rule market must return back above ROMAR support. DB/SAR at 0.0 with both divergences.


H1:

ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
Psar - Resistance

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down
Last MA Alert Arrow - down
Fibonacci - Green

Notes: Open candle with gap down below lower Bollinger Band as well. H1 chart is down but market opened at the lower band and Fibo is green.

Final Notes: We are in consolidation. Daily opened at 38.2 support and the H4, H2, and H1 opened below the lower Bollinger Band. Daily is up, H4 is down with EMA but up with ROMAR and so is the H2. With the gap down, what I see clearly is a long entry, with 40+ pips to resistance. Spread is fairly high, 12 or so pips, so I’ll wait some more until it’s lower and buy from support. Did not expect this massive gap down.

Entry: Once again, buying from the bottom in consolidation from support. Entered long right before 18:00 open, my TP before the gap will be filled and before H2 Parabolic, but most importantly my 40 is before the 23.6 Daily.

Rules:
DB attached on bottom so the next attachment is on top
40 pip count to H2 Parabolic Resistance and Daily 23.6 (23.6 was important because market almost reached it and dropped instantly)

Evaluation: TP hit. Good trade from the bottom, I made sure the pip count was there which minimized my risk and took my trade from the bottom in consolidation. With the gap down market was certain to close the gap and everything the Paradox told me at time of entry was consistent with a long entry. When market came within a pip of profit and dropped I was mildly alarmed but as I scrolled back through the charts and re-read my plan I was put at ease because everything pointed to up. Open at the lower band on H1, H2 and H4, Daily 38.2. Divergences attached on bottom on H1, H2 and H4, and market opened below ROMAR which was still support on H2 and H4 at time of entry. This trade solidified the importance of a pip count to resistance in my mind, you must have the pips or your trade is at risk.

note: late screenshot because I was running back and forth between my monitor and downstairs making sure my toast didn't burn, but entry was several mins before 18:00 open, and good thing I caught it too, because market seriously took off upstairs after that open!
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