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Clear Signal: SELL Dollar

  • #41
  • Sep 19, 2006 10:12am Sep 19, 2006 10:12am
quick call your congressmen to complain about those bad hedgies!!
Price is the only indicator.
  • #42
  • Sep 19, 2006 10:15am Sep 19, 2006 10:15am
Ok, you got me. I have just closed my once losing 2 mini lot trade on the Eurusd at BE... Now the Dollar can resume... Thanks Everyone... Scott
  • #43
  • Sep 19, 2006 10:21am Sep 19, 2006 10:21am
allright boys.. lets take it down now!.. 117.50 .....shake off some longs.

ready set go!~
Price is the only indicator.
  • #44
  • Sep 19, 2006 10:39am Sep 19, 2006 10:39am
Quoting smjones
Ok, you got me. I have just closed my once losing 2 mini lot trade on the Eurusd at BE... Now the Dollar can resume... Thanks Everyone... Scott
Trading is a long and a short story.
  • #45
  • Sep 19, 2006 10:55am Sep 19, 2006 10:55am
LONDON (AFX) - Reports of a coup in Thailand dented the yen and the Australian dollar as investors cut back on risk exposure, but the US dollar benefited, reversing its earlier losses against the euro.

Also:

http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...-UPDATE-12.XML

Everybody should be keeping up with the news. I'll say it again, until people know whats going on in thailand we'll continue to see dollar strength. Should the situation become clear about what is happening there, then, and only then, will the dollar go down to its previous levels. Irregardless of what technicals are saying news will move the market.
  • #46
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:11am Sep 19, 2006 11:11am
Quoting Money Talks

Everybody should be keeping up with the news. I'll say it again, until people know whats going on in thailand we'll continue to see dollar strength. Should the situation become clear about what is happening there, then, and only then, will the dollar go down to its previous levels. Irregardless of what technicals are saying news will move the market.
So, the fact that the USD stopped exactly where it was 8 hours ago (see GBPUSD, EURUSD, and USDCHF) is pure coincidence and not technical?

Is there so much Thai Baht in the world that it can significantly move the most popular and widely held reserves in the world?

Inquiring minds want to know......
  • #47
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:15am Sep 19, 2006 11:15am
You talk a lot of sense, my friend. The FOREX market is almost purely driven by the fundies. One can use the technicals sometimes but the news trump all the TA every time. I would have thought that is obvious.
Quoting Money Talks
LONDON (AFX) - Reports of a coup in Thailand dented the yen and the Australian dollar as investors cut back on risk exposure, but the US dollar benefited, reversing its earlier losses against the euro.

Also:

http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...-UPDATE-12.XML

Everybody should be keeping up with the news. I'll say it again, until people know whats going on in thailand we'll continue to see dollar strength. Should the situation become clear about what is happening there, then, and only then, will the dollar go down to its previous levels. Irregardless of what technicals are saying news will move the market.
  • #48
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:19am Sep 19, 2006 11:19am
Quoting philmcgrew
So, the fact that the USD stopped exactly where it was 8 hours ago (see GBPUSD, EURUSD, and USDCHF) is pure coincidence and not technical?
In my opinion yes. Just a pure coincidence. I'd imagine that once the dollar rally came it set off some stops which helped the rally. I'm still shorting the dollar as I don't think this will be prolonged. I'm hoping that it'll blow over fairly soon and we'll be right back where we were before the dollar rally. I will be glued to the news though.
  • #49
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:24am Sep 19, 2006 11:24am
It is perfectly possible, of course, for the move to be as a result of the Thailand story but the move then ended at a technical level. This happens all the time after news. If on an NFP day the price moves 100 pips and settles down where it was before the news, you are not going to say the 100 pip move was not because of the news, are you?
Quoting philmcgrew
So, the fact that the USD stopped exactly where it was 8 hours ago (see GBPUSD, EURUSD, and USDCHF) is pure coincidence and not technical?

Is there so much Thai Baht in the world that it can significantly move the most popular and widely held reserves in the world?

Inquiring minds want to know......
  • #50
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:32am Sep 19, 2006 11:32am
Quoting Money Talks
In my opinion yes. Just a pure coincidence. I'd imagine that once the dollar rally came it set off some stops which helped the rally. I'm still shorting the dollar as I don't think this will be prolonged. I'm hoping that it'll blow over fairly soon and we'll be right back where we were before the dollar rally. I will be glued to the news though.
For the record, I respect whatever your trading style might be. That being said, you've made a lot of baseless comments today that can't be backed up with facts. Retail trading accounts for less than 2% of Forex transactions. Trust me, by the time you read about a supposed coup on the internet the banks have long acted up any news that they consider appropriate. All that's left is for a few small traders to come in and start swapping stories about fundamental chit chat.

One of the things that crack me up about most fundamental traders is that they make these long term predictions and then trade off of short term charts all the while applying the fundamental excuse of the day. Interest rate differentials, rate hikes, war, trade balances, all these things can take years to play out and you still run the risk of being wrong. An hour ago you told us that the USD would go higher because of Baht liquidation and now you're short USD. Do fundamentals change that quickly?

I don't follow the news and don't care but clearly there was some news release at 0830 ET this morning. The market went up and then it went right back down to where it started. It's really that simple.
  • #51
  • Edited 11:51am Sep 19, 2006 11:35am | Edited 11:51am
I was just trying to explain someone's query about the dollar rally.Fundies are released everyday so they move markets every day. I was short dollars for the last 3 months my friends and I'm still adding to that position. During those three months I've held my position and will continue to do so as I think the dollar will weaken over the coming months.

*Edit* And for the record I never said the dollar would go higher. I said we'd continue to see dollar strenght until the situation there became clear. Perhaps I should have said we'll see dollar strenght, relative to where we were before the news, until the situation becomes clear.* Any technicals that predicted that drop should be applauded. I might even have a poke into them myself
  • #52
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:51am Sep 19, 2006 11:51am
Quoting Money Talks
Look at the liquidty of the market...We have banks in all countries near Thai dumping their own currencies for the last hour fleeing into the dollar. A coup is going on next door to you..Do you look at technicals or flee for a safe haven??? Whether that be swiss / USD / Euro etc. Anything is better than a risky currency for them.
When you make comments like this you should put a disclaimer on it. Try something like this:

"I don't really believe in my commnets enough to risk my personal account on them. I am merely trying to explain to someone why the market moved after the fact."
  • #53
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:54am Sep 19, 2006 11:54am
Quoting Money Talks
Think of it like this. You are president of a large bank in Thailand or some neighbouring county. Your aunty rings you at 3am in the morning to wake you from sleep to complain that there are tanks rolling around the street below and she can't get any sleep. Do you:

a. Increase you're holding of thai currency?
b. Decrease you're holding of Thai currency?

Any bank over there will decrease their holding and invest in Eur, dollar, swiss, gold, sheep, farms, land, nuts, lego until they know whats going on. Once we know how the situation will pan out we'll all be back to normal and Mr. Bank manager can resume his beauty sleep.

Even bring it down to our level. If you were holding thai currency and betting on a dollar decline (what is their currency anyway??!) what would you do????

Politics has always affected currencies. Sometimes drasticallys sometimes only a few pips. Look at Paulsons speeches and the G7 summits and the uncertainity over Yen statements etc. The Thai situation at the moment is akin to that.
Lets see here. You've been holding dollar shorts for the last 3 months and this little bit of news is not enough to make you liquidate your position. Now I can't be sure but you probably don't control multi-million dollars of currency, that's just a guess. So tell me, if you are not willing to liquidate your position of lets say, several tens of thousands of dollars over this most recent news, why would the manager of a bank holding tens of millions of dollars liquidate theirs.
  • #54
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:54am Sep 19, 2006 11:54am
If you must know half my account is short on the dollar. I wouldn't comment if it I wasn't in the trade. *Sighs* Did you predict the drop prior to the fact????


For the last post;
Because a bank isn't going to risk a drop in their reserves. They've a central bank to answer to and their balance sheet must have so much reserves. They will always err on the side of caution, tomorrow is another day for them.

Look guys, Im sorry I ever came in here to offer my opinion. If I'd known I'd be eaten alive for bringing a piece of breaking news that explained the dollar rally I would never have posted it. Next time I'll leave it to the technicals to predict the future and we can all make our own monies.
  • #55
  • Sep 19, 2006 12:00pm Sep 19, 2006 12:00pm
Quoting Money Talks
If you must know half my account is short on the dollar. I wouldn't comment if it I wasn't in the trade. *Sighs* Did you predict the drop prior to the fact????
I try not to predict anything, it's pointless. I added my two cents earlier in the thread because speculation and conjecture can be fun. But when it comes to putting my money where my mouth is, I never predict, or guess what direction price is headed.
  • #56
  • Sep 19, 2006 12:02pm Sep 19, 2006 12:02pm
Quoting Money Talks
If you must know half my account is short on the dollar. I wouldn't comment if it I wasn't in the trade. *Sighs* Did you predict the drop prior to the fact????
Lao Tzu, a 6th century BC philosopher said:

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."
  • #57
  • Sep 19, 2006 12:06pm Sep 19, 2006 12:06pm
Lao Tzu never traded forex....
  • #58
  • Edited 1:12pm Sep 19, 2006 12:42pm | Edited 1:12pm
Quoting philmcgrew
Lao Tzu, a 6th century BC philosopher said:

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."
LOL

Lao Tzu Phil? I would have thought that your were more of a Sun Tzu kind of guy.

I think all of this back and forth price action is the same as always. We are waiting not on the rate, but the language.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #59
  • Sep 19, 2006 1:30pm Sep 19, 2006 1:30pm
For whatever it's worth, Bloomberg TV was reporting the Thai Baht at a 4 year low after the coup.
  • #60
  • Sep 19, 2006 1:54pm Sep 19, 2006 1:54pm
Quoting FXopportunist
LOL


I think all of this back and forth price action is the same as always. We are waiting not on the rate, but the language.

Yes I think you are right.
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