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Clear Signal: SELL Dollar

  • #21
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:06am Sep 19, 2006 11:06am
I thought I'd join in on the discussion.

Attached is what I thought was an absolutely beautiful chart of GBPUSD with very clear signals. Prior to the PPI numbers this morning, the price was contained within a triangle. There was, what looks like, a false breakout, or a lower support for a broader triangle. The price broke out of the triangle at about the 3/4 mark, and went all the way up to 1.8886, which was also a previous high of 1.8887.

The price retraced to both the 50% retracement level and the upper edge of the triangle where it has met strong resistance.

So, where does it go from here? Well, I'll be looking for the 50% retracement level to hold. If it comes back through the triangle, I'll obviously reset my expectations.

Anyone have any other observations about this? I just thought it was a picture perfect example of using chart patterns.
Attached Image
  • #22
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:21am Sep 19, 2006 11:21am
iran dont forget that issue. un speech.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #23
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:24am Sep 19, 2006 11:24am
Guys alot of the uncertainity with the dollar during the last hour is to do with the Thai crisis. They'll be a lot of buyers seeking a safe haven in dollars until we get a clear picture of whats happening...whether that be in the next half hour or day I don't know...Comments?
  • #24
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:29am Sep 19, 2006 11:29am
This could be a case of technicals trumping fundamentals. The dollar has been oversold for sometime, perhaps not many are willing to sell dollars despite the glaring fundamental weaknesses. There will be no rate hike, this was priced into the market last week, thus the rally despite the fact speculators actually cut their cable longs by a significant amount. It looks like price is having a hard time breaking through the 200 EMA on the 4 hour charts. So, down if there is a close below the 200 EMA on the 4 hour.
  • #25
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:35am Sep 19, 2006 11:35am
Look at the liquidty of the market...We have banks in all countries near Thai dumping their own currencies for the last hour fleeing into the dollar. A coup is going on next door to you..Do you look at technicals or flee for a safe haven??? Whether that be swiss / USD / Euro etc. Anything is better than a risky currency for them.
  • #26
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:40am Sep 19, 2006 11:40am
Are banks in that time zone even open right now? Who is conducting those major transactions if the financial centers over there aren't even open?
  • #27
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:42am Sep 19, 2006 11:42am
nah.. its not enough to create a 50 pip premium that hasnt been sold into.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #28
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:42am Sep 19, 2006 11:42am
I can get on Forex Sun thro Fri 24 hours a day. All banks who deal in reserves have someone monitoring reserves (i.e. Forex) 24/7. You think they close up shop for the night and pray nothing happens in the real world to effect their reserves???

Either way until peoples know whats going on over there we'll see temporary strenth in the dollar. Again, I don't know if that will be in an hour or 6 hours or a day.
  • #29
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:43am Sep 19, 2006 11:43am
118.50 ..given the volatility pattern..its a flipped wedge with volatility increasing in the pair....ultimately 120 before even its remotely over.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #30
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:44am Sep 19, 2006 11:44am
Quoting Money Talks
I can get on Forex Sun thro Fri 24 hours a day. All banks who deal in reserves have someone monitoring reserves (i.e. Forex) 24/7. You think they close up shop for the night and pray nothing happens in the real world to effect their reserves???
Yeah, actually I do.
  • #31
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:49am Sep 19, 2006 11:49am
Quoting Spectre2006
118.50 ..given the volatility pattern..its a flipped wedge with volatility increasing in the pair....ultimately 120 before even its remotely over.
Did you answer the question to the post I just deleted?
  • #32
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:50am Sep 19, 2006 11:50am
Quoting Money Talks
Look at the liquidty of the market...We have banks in all countries near Thai dumping their own currencies for the last hour fleeing into the dollar. A coup is going on next door to you..Do you look at technicals or flee for a safe haven??? Whether that be swiss / USD / Euro etc. Anything is better than a risky currency for them.
Do you have a chart or some kind of evidence to show that you are remotely correct? How do you explain the fact that the CHFJPY has moved less than 40 pips in the last 4 hours? Isn't the CHF the "safe haven"? Don't banks hold most of their reserves in EURO and USD anyway?
  • #33
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:56am Sep 19, 2006 11:56am
what was the question..?
Price is the only indicator.
  • #34
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:58am Sep 19, 2006 11:58am
Quoting Spectre2006
what was the question..?
I just couldn't make any sense out of post #29.
  • #35
  • Sep 19, 2006 11:59am Sep 19, 2006 11:59am
price action.....woo woo.. dont step infront of it.. usd.jpy.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #36
  • Sep 19, 2006 12:00pm Sep 19, 2006 12:00pm
Think of it like this. You are president of a large bank in Thailand or some neighbouring county. Your aunty rings you at 3am in the morning to wake you from sleep to complain that there are tanks rolling around the street below and she can't get any sleep. Do you:

a. Increase you're holding of thai currency?
b. Decrease you're holding of Thai currency?

Any bank over there will decrease their holding and invest in Eur, dollar, swiss, gold, sheep, farms, land, nuts, lego until they know whats going on. Once we know how the situation will pan out we'll all be back to normal and Mr. Bank manager can resume his beauty sleep.

Even bring it down to our level. If you were holding thai currency and betting on a dollar decline (what is their currency anyway??!) what would you do????

Politics has always affected currencies. Sometimes drasticallys sometimes only a few pips. Look at Paulsons speeches and the G7 summits and the uncertainity over Yen statements etc. The Thai situation at the moment is akin to that.
  • #37
  • Sep 19, 2006 12:01pm Sep 19, 2006 12:01pm
Oh.. if you look at the chart pattern, its a expanding wedge.. where price range is increasing..instead of compressing like most wedges..

<

instead of:

>



Chris
Price is the only indicator.
  • #38
  • Sep 19, 2006 12:04pm Sep 19, 2006 12:04pm
Quoting Money Talks
Think of it like this. You are president of a large bank in Thailand or some neighbouring county. Your aunty rings you at 3am in the morning to wake you from sleep to complain that there are tanks rolling around the street below and she can't get any sleep. Do you:

a. Increase you're holding of thai currency?
b. Decrease you're holding of Thai currency?

Any bank over there will decrease their holding and invest in Eur, dollar, swiss, gold, sheep, farms, land, nuts, lego until they know whats going on. Once we know how the situation will pan out we'll all be back to normal and Mr. Bank manager can resume his beauty sleep.

Even bring it down to our level. If you were holding thai currency and betting on a dollar decline (what is their currency anyway??!) what would you do????

Politics has always affected currencies. Sometimes drasticallys sometimes only a few pips. Look at Paulsons speeches and the G7 summits and the uncertainity over Yen statements etc. The Thai situation at the moment is akin to that.
Your analysis reminds me a bit of chicken little..."the Thai is falling, the Thai is falling...."

You don't even know what currency they use or have access to a chart and your babbling on about how there is a selloff.
  • #39
  • Sep 19, 2006 12:06pm Sep 19, 2006 12:06pm
The Thai currency is the Baht.

*interesting thread
  • #40
  • Sep 19, 2006 12:11pm Sep 19, 2006 12:11pm
I tell ya.. the hedge funds are behind this Thai coup crisis!!!

All to take the dollar up!!

Those damn hedgies..will they never stoop lower?!!
Price is the only indicator.
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