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  • #661
  • Aug 25, 2017 5:29pm Aug 25, 2017 5:29pm
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} Yes I think it will especially if a trade is in DD. If that signal/trade which is in DD is the one that changes then the EA will close it and open a new trade in the other direction, so it will change the pip count but my thinking is that it's a good thing as the original signal in DD will be affecting the basket negatively so with it being closed it allows the new signal to be added to the basket giving it a better chance of reaching TP quicker.
Well what I'm afraid of is the pip count making a basket look better than it actually is. If a trade closes, the result immediately affects your balance in the account and inversely affects the pip count. If a -20 pip trade is closed, the pip count goes up +20 pips and is further away from a stop loss. And if the stop loss is still hit, the entirety of the basket would be the SL -20 pips. I'll test to see if this is the case, I think I'm more of a fan of the idea of adding trades than closing trades and reversing but we will see how it goes.
  • #662
  • Aug 25, 2017 6:04pm Aug 25, 2017 6:04pm
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} What happened mate?
I have been testing the difference between the 3 setups as per previous posts, Standard, FXM & FXM EQB and instead of doing all Friday's tests (6 in total) on the demo account without the Trade Explorer I did it all on the account with the Trade Explorer ... so basically because the standard settings did not work out for me on Friday the big downside has been multiplied nearly 6 fold.
Simple error ... my bad ... learn from it ... and repeat 100 times check 3 times act once.
When you are successful perhaps give a thought to others ... Kiva dot org
  • #663
  • Edited 11:52pm Aug 25, 2017 8:29pm | Edited 11:52pm
Quoting bae67
I have been thinking about what we can do to keep the DD low in the baskets we trade. This is what I finally came up with. I think we need to carry out a systematic study of those baskets that end up with a large DD and result in fail trades. Instead of trying to see if TO is better than LO or (please notice that I am not trying to discount anyone's hard work here) ... we need to focus on our selection rules. For what it is worth, this is what I propose: 1. Dissect those baskets with high DD. 2. In the above mentioned baskets, separate those pairs...
Great idea Bae67

This week most of pairs are ranging and only some if them are in trending. Seems like many of the suggested pairs are near reversal when we opened the baskets.

Aud and nzd pairs were actually trending down this week, but it mostly happened from tuesday to early friday. While gbp pairs with high ADR were ranging the whole week.

Here are some examples of mostly suggested pairs this week, all down direction. Blue for TO and red for LO.


Quoting Embry1
{quote} Well what I'm afraid of is the pip count making a basket look better than it actually is. If a trade closes, the result immediately affects your balance in the account and inversely affects the pip count. If a -20 pip trade is closed, the pip count goes up +20 pips and is further away from a stop loss. And if the stop loss is still hit, the entirety of the basket would be the SL -20 pips. I'll test to see if this is the case, I think I'm more of a fan of the idea of adding trades than closing trades and reversing but we will see how it goes.

Yeah counter reversed pairs with opposite position is also good idea. But i consider the margin used that can be higher eventhough if we can close the trades in exactly right times, we can get more profit. I did a manual close to save the profit this week it was a blessing choice.

However it is also important to consider what if all pairs move the wrong direction? Actually we will lose more that we prepare.
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  • #664
  • Aug 26, 2017 3:09am Aug 26, 2017 3:09am
Quoting bae67
I have been thinking about what we can do to keep the DD low in the baskets we trade. This is what I finally came up with. I think we need to carry out a systematic study of those baskets that end up with a large DD and result in fail trades. Instead of trying to see if TO is better than LO or (please notice that I am not trying to discount anyone's hard work here) ... we need to focus on our selection rules. For what it is worth, this is what I propose: 1. Dissect those baskets with high DD. 2. In the above mentioned baskets, separate those pairs...
I will tell you that in practice you offer an analysis of the pairs suggested by the indicator before opening a trading session. Removing what you think will lead to DD. EA's release to run the selected pairs. The drawbacks are:
1. Time to analyze before opening a trading session, but looking at how many couples you trade I doubt you'll have time for that. Better trade as many pairs as you can analyze.
2. Include a human factor that is at odds with automatic trading.
3. You are questioning the choice of the indicator that offered you pairs according to what you said to him (TT TF FT FF, time frame, FXM, EQB, etc.) If you doubt his choice, then you doubt myself. If you are right, the indicator is not what you want.
4. When opening a trading session, you do not know which couple will go to DD to remove it. You can see the consequences, then you react emotionally, you close it, and then it goes back in the right direction. Again a human factor. Analysis of the particular pair, how many pair per SL, and so on.
All this is not automatic trading, it's manual.
The strategy you choose (TT TF FT FF, time frame, FXM, EQB, etc.) is important, choosing a time to enter the market and when to exit. What most closely matches your essence and, last but not least, the money you are willing to lose.

Ще ти кажа, че на практика предлагаш анализ на предложените от индикатора двойки, преди отварянето на търговска сесия. Премахването на тези, които според теб ще доведат до DD. Пускането на EA да управлява избраните двойки. Недостатъците са:
1. Време за анализ преди отварянето на търговска сесия, а като гледам с колко много двойки търгувате съмнявам се, че ще имаш време за това. По-добре търгувайте ръчно толкова двойки, колкото можете да анализирате.
2. Включваш човешки фактор, което е в противоречие на автоматичната търговия.
3. Подлагаш на съмнение самият избор на индикатора, който ти е предложил двойки според това какво си му казал (TT TF FT FF, time frame, FXM, EQB и т.н.) Ако се съмняваш в избора му, то се съмнявай в себе си. Ако си прав, то индикатора не е това което искаш.
4. При отварянето на търговска сесия, ти не знаеш коя двойка ще отиде в DD, за да я премахнеш. Можеш да видиш последствията, тогава реагираш емоционално, затваряш я и точно тогава се връща в правилната посока. Отново човешки фактор. Анализ на конкретната двойка, колко SL за двойка и т.н.
Всичко това не е автоматична търговия, а ръчна.
Важна е стратегията, която избираш (TT TF FT FF, time frame, FXM, EQB и т.н.), избора на момент за влизане в пазара и кога да излезеш. Това, което най-много съответства на твоята същност и не на последно място, парите които си готов да загубиш.
  • #665
  • Aug 26, 2017 3:42am Aug 26, 2017 3:42am
Quoting bae67
I have been thinking about what we can do to keep the DD low in the baskets we trade. This is what I finally came up with. I think we need to carry out a systematic study of those baskets that end up with a large DD and result in fail trades. Instead of trying to see if TO is better than LO or (please notice that I am not trying to discount anyone's hard work here) ... we need to focus on our selection rules. For what it is worth, this is what I propose: 1. Dissect those baskets with high DD. 2. In the above mentioned baskets, separate those pairs...
Let me see if i can suggest something:


At any given moment, there are 28 potential correct signals available, long or short.

Each person needs to decide which tool to use to obtain a correct signal of these possible 28.

Which of your tools is the best -- to use a word that many people here loathe.

What are the variables you can alter:

Do you want the original indicator or the FXM indicator or perhaps both.

Do you want TT TF FT FF or some combination of these 4.

What time frame do you want month week, day 4h, 1h, 30m, 15m, 5m 1m

Do you want to use CCFP, Strength or CC (assuming the FXM indicator)


There are 28 possible signals. (As a side note, if the baskets you open contain 46 signals then you are not thinking hard enough.)


The premise of the original thread is MONTHLY True False gives pretty decent signals for any given moment in time.


This seems to work as a potential set and forget though can produce massive draw down of up to ten thousand pips if you read that thread.

There is no suggestion or implication that WEEKLY or DAILY baskets work consistently. It is still an open question.

There is no suggestion or implication that STRENGTH or CC baskets work. It is still an open question.


In testing, you really need to analyse ONE basket at a time to see its relative merits.


Four baskets will only work well if each one of them has been tweaked to maximise returns on its own.


Better to stop testing random collections of baskets that other people have said are good.


Be more systematic people.
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #666
  • Aug 26, 2017 6:11am Aug 26, 2017 6:11am
Quote
2. Include a human factor that is at odds with automatic trading.

Tried fuzzy, does not work.
But there is no other "human" factor except for reading headlines you can build in an automated system.

Quote
This seems to work as a potential set and forget though can produce massive draw down of up to ten thousand pips if you read that thread.

Agreed.
But you do need deep enough pockets to overcome the drawdown and the possible loss going together with the DD.
Not only on monthly but even on weekly.

Demo 100,000 -> live ~500~1000 (+ real money factor), it just does not work that way.
I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men. Isaac N.
  • #667
  • Aug 26, 2017 9:27am Aug 26, 2017 9:27am
Quoting juraia
{quote} I will tell you that in practice you offer an analysis of the pairs suggested by the indicator before opening a trading session. Removing what you think will lead to DD. EA's release to run the selected pairs. The drawbacks are: 1. Time to analyze before opening a trading session, but looking at how many couples you trade I doubt you'll have time for that. Better trade as many pairs as you can analyze. 2. Include a human factor that is at odds with automatic trading. 3. You are questioning the choice of the indicator that offered you pairs...
You misunderstood my post. Please go back and read it more carefully. I suggested "after the fact" analysis.
Everything in the universe is mathematical including fear and greed.
  • #668
  • Aug 26, 2017 9:31am Aug 26, 2017 9:31am
Quoting gettoefl
{quote} Let me see if i can suggest something: At any given moment, there are 28 potential correct signals available, long or short. Each person needs to decide which tool to use to obtain a correct signal of these possible 28. Which of your tools is the best -- to use a word that many people here loathe. What are the variables you can alter: Do you want the original indicator or the FXM indicator or perhaps both. Do you want TT TF FT FF or some combination of these 4. What time frame do you want month week, day 4h, 1h, 30m, 15m, 5m 1m Do you want...
I am not sure I understand what you are trying to say here. Could you please elaborate?
Everything in the universe is mathematical including fear and greed.
  • #669
  • Aug 26, 2017 10:10am Aug 26, 2017 10:10am
Quoting bae67
{quote} I am not sure I understand what you are trying to say here. Could you please elaborate?
for example which do you think is better TF or TT or FT or FF -- where does the best edge / profit lie

test and rank them in order of effectiveness

should we decide to have just one of them, or maybe two is better


and then do the same with all the other factors listed

(only use one basket per test in order to control inputs)

otherwise we are just groping in the dark
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #670
  • Aug 26, 2017 10:23am Aug 26, 2017 10:23am
Quoting gettoefl
{quote} for example which do you think is better TF or TT or FT or FF -- where does the best edge / profit lie test and rank them in order of effectiveness should we decide to have just one of them, or maybe two is better and then do the same with all the other factors listed (only use one basket per test in order to control inputs) otherwise we are just groping in the dark
TF, TT, FT, and FF will all perform well with the appropriate use of it. For example, TT is usually quite bad for D1 or higher time frames, but TT is fantastic for my news basket because it's based on a 1H time frame and taking the current bar momentum and determining the trades based on that. As far as higher time frames than 1 hour I suggest a good mix of TF and FF and almost always set the Xmess EA to Allow Opposite Trades = False so the difference acts as a filter. I've seen a lot of monthly baskets including my own that use TF, FF, and FT together but I wouldn't recommend using all three for shorter time frames. There are so many variables you really can't say which is better but understanding what each setting is trying to accomplish and matching it with your trading style is key for creating a successful system for yourself.
  • #671
  • Aug 26, 2017 10:33am Aug 26, 2017 10:33am
Quoting gettoefl
{quote} for example which do you think is better TF or TT or FT or FF -- where does the best edge / profit lie test and rank them in order of effectiveness should we decide to have just one of them, or maybe two is better and then do the same with all the other factors listed (only use one basket per test in order to control inputs) otherwise we are just groping in the dark
All those questions you ask are valid, that's why I suggested a systematic analysis of the system, but that is not a one man (or woman) job. We need to come up with an approach, set a deadline and divide the workload. We can conpermentlize the work so everyone does a small, but crucial, part of the work. At the end, we put together all pieces and decide what will work best (i.e., the best case scenario that results in lowest DD).
Everything in the universe is mathematical including fear and greed.
  • #672
  • Aug 26, 2017 10:39am Aug 26, 2017 10:39am
... You misunderstood my post. Please go back and read it more carefully. I suggested "after the fact" analysis.

4. When opening a trading session, you do not know which couple will go to DD to remove it. You can see the consequences, then you react emotionally, you close it, and then it goes back in the right direction. Again a human factor. Analysis of the particular pair, how many pair per SL, and so on.
  • #673
  • Aug 26, 2017 11:01am Aug 26, 2017 11:01am
Does anyone know of an EA or a tool on FF that lets you choose the pairs in your baskets and lets you open and close the basket manually? I need it to treats the pairs as a basket and follow up/down pips; nothing fancy or hard, just a simple tool.

I am not trying to find a replacement for Xmass7 EA as it is my only EA for trading. I need this new tool to run some experiments on the pairs of my choice. As I understand the Xmass7 EA, it choose pairs based on its own selection rules and what you specify (TT, TF,....).
Everything in the universe is mathematical including fear and greed.
  • #674
  • Aug 26, 2017 11:04am Aug 26, 2017 11:04am
Quoting juraia
... You misunderstood my post. Please go back and read it more carefully. I suggested "after the fact" analysis. 4. When opening a trading session, you do not know which couple will go to DD to remove it. You can see the consequences, then you react emotionally, you close it, and then it goes back in the right direction. Again a human factor. Analysis of the particular pair, how many pair per SL, and so on.
Again, I never suggested to do it while trading. I meant "after the fact analysis" of the trades.
Everything in the universe is mathematical including fear and greed.
  • #675
  • Aug 26, 2017 11:43am Aug 26, 2017 11:43am
Quoting mrdfx
Ok guys I did my weekly analysis and unfortunately due to some technical errors this week, this wasn't a good week to log any solid data. I had a quite a few misfires this week which obviously screws with the data collection. Overall the same top 4 came out on tops with the little data I was able to capture, so no changes there. Also my current live set up will remain unchanged going into next week. For now this is what I feel confident putting my money on. The addition of the VB was a great idea and I can't for the life of me figure out why I never...
HI Mrd here is one of your weekley templates a whopping 3,225 pips in one week !
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  • #676
  • Aug 26, 2017 11:49am Aug 26, 2017 11:49am
Quoting montego
{quote} HI Mrd here is one of your weekley templates a whopping 3,225 pips in one week ! {image}
Wow! nice weekly basket by mrdfx. I may have to steal that one lol. My weekly was 1000 pip max and 1500 pip DD I'll have to run them side by side.
  • #677
  • Aug 26, 2017 12:14pm Aug 26, 2017 12:14pm
Quoting montego
{quote} HI Mrd here is one of your weekley templates a whopping 3,225 pips in one week ! {image}
In the general interests of drawn down I would question why you would need 8 x NZDCAD sells.

Surely this is were we can iron out the chinks in the armour of ccfp.

Maybe because it appeared 8 times it was a better trade than all the rest ?

How did it do ?
  • #678
  • Aug 26, 2017 12:23pm Aug 26, 2017 12:23pm
Quoting nihilist23uk
{quote} In the general interests of drawn down I would question why you would need 8 x NZDCAD sells. Surely this is were we can iron out the chinks in the armour of ccfp. Maybe because it appeared 8 times it was a better trade than all the rest ? How did it do ?
You don't have to take duplicate trades, you can set Allow Duplicate Trades = False in the Xmess EA but the purpose of taking multiples of the same signal is obviously the fact that it's a strong signal if it is showing up on 8 variations of the indicator so I would want the size of that trade to be larger than the others.
  • #679
  • Aug 26, 2017 12:28pm Aug 26, 2017 12:28pm
Quoting nihilist23uk
{quote} In the general interests of drawn down I would question why you would need 8 x NZDCAD sells. Surely this is were we can iron out the chinks in the armour of ccfp. Maybe because it appeared 8 times it was a better trade than all the rest ? How did it do ?
he's using current in most so pairs would be totally different beginning of the week

we dont know how many pairs he traded

what we need to know is how each basket of the 8 performed, otherwise this is next to meaningless
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #680
  • Aug 26, 2017 12:30pm Aug 26, 2017 12:30pm
Quoting montego
{quote} HI Mrd here is one of your weekley templates a whopping 3,225 pips in one week ! {image}
Well done man, excellent results. TBH I forgot about that weekly set up. I'm running multiple weekly tests and actually made some changes from that one. Perhaps I should give it another go lol.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
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