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  • #641
  • Aug 25, 2017 7:40am Aug 25, 2017 7:40am
Quoting Tx15
{quote} Evening mrdfx, I only have setups for trading embry1's Red News and yours for the LO. On the Red News, I only trade the USD. On mrdfx's daily, I only trade the LO. I have had consistent profits on both; however, I feel uncomfortable when the LO opens and I'm immediately 30-50 pips down, depending on the number of pairs, in the red before it turns around, and normally it does end up in positive pips. My goal each trading day is 50 pips. If you notice, my TP on the LO is 25 pips, and is the same on the Red News trades. Just this week have...
You seem to be running an older template of mine from last week, I'm glad its still working well for you. I did update earlier this week and I'll be updating it again over the weekend.

I'll post my new updated live trading template when I'm done for you guys to test.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #642
  • Aug 25, 2017 8:06am Aug 25, 2017 8:06am
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} You seem to be running an older template of mine from last week, I'm glad its still working well for you. I did update earlier this week and I'll be updating it again over the weekend. I'll post my new updated live trading template when I'm done for you guys to test.
Yes, you are correct as the older version has served me well. I will certainly try your updated template next week with VB. Thank you mrdfx for all that you do on this thread.
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  • #643
  • Aug 25, 2017 9:02am Aug 25, 2017 9:02am
USD can't make up it's mind today holy cow. No wonder this week has been nuts.
  • #644
  • Aug 25, 2017 9:12am Aug 25, 2017 9:12am
Quoting Embry1
USD can't make up it's mind today holy cow. No wonder this week has been nuts.
Have you seen gold? Yowzers! Looks like the MM were collecting stops and pending orders. It's a good thing I didn't have any open orders. I feel sorry for those that got caught.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #645
  • Aug 25, 2017 1:10pm Aug 25, 2017 1:10pm
As I mentioned last night, I ran five baskets (normal and opposite directions) for TO. Attached are the "Normal" direction charts. The next post will be charts for the "opposite" direction trades, and I will discuss them in my third post.
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Everything in the universe is mathematical including fear and greed.
  • #646
  • Aug 25, 2017 1:12pm Aug 25, 2017 1:12pm
These are the charts from the "opposite" direction trades.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 15C.png Size: 85 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 30C.png Size: 92 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: DC.png Size: 91 KB
Everything in the universe is mathematical including fear and greed.
  • #647
  • Aug 25, 2017 1:36pm Aug 25, 2017 1:36pm
At TO, once I opened the trades, two of the opposite direction trades (let's call them contrarian from now on for the sake of argument) hit their TP within five minutes. The rest of the contrarian trades were hovering in the "profitable direction" and I was almost sure they would close with profit. However, they did not close on time and the LO hit me hard; it massed up my experiment. So, the score here would be 3 for normal trades and 2 for contrarian (60% and 40% respectively). I do believe, however, that if LO had not hit me, the score for the contrarian trades would be higher than the normal ones.

I urge you, next time when you close a basket with profit to take a close look at its DD and ask yourself "wouldn't you have made more pips by trading in the opposite direction?"

This, and my previous, experiments suggest to me that no matter which direction you choose to trade a basket, if you wait long enough and have enough fund to withstand the DD, the basket would swing back to your favour. I am not sure if the same can be said about a single pair currency; maybe this is one of the inherent (and positive) properties of basket trading.

This brings me to my next point. I believe that all my (or maybe our) effort now should be concentrated on minimizing the "DD", otherwise I don't see any advantage in choosing direction when I (we) trade in basket.
Everything in the universe is mathematical including fear and greed.
  • #648
  • Aug 25, 2017 1:56pm Aug 25, 2017 1:56pm
Quoting bae67
At TO, once I opened the trades, two of the opposite direction trades (let's call them contrarian from now on for the sake of argument) hit their TP within five minutes. The rest of the contrarian trades were hovering in the "profitable direction" and I was almost sure they would close with profit. However, they did not close on time and the LO hit me hard; it massed up my experiment. So, the score here would be 3 for normal trades and 2 for contrarian (60% and 40% respectively). I do believe, however, that if LO had not hit me, the score for the...
This reminds me of an idea I had a few months back but did not follow it up with a test.
I was thinking,what would happen if we open all 28 pairs at buy.... Surely all the money in the market cant go in one direction,so eventually it has to flow back the other way giving a profit..
My novice mind works overtime sometimes and I really dont have the expertise to know if that makes an ounce of sense.Maybe someone can put me straight.
  • #649
  • Edited 2:40pm Aug 25, 2017 2:29pm | Edited 2:40pm
Quoting nihilist23uk
{quote} This reminds me of an idea I had a few months back but did not follow it up with a test. I was thinking,what would happen if we open all 28 pairs at buy.... Surely all the money in the market cant go in one direction,so eventually it has to flow back the other way giving a profit.. My novice mind works overtime sometimes and I really dont have the expertise to know if that makes an ounce of sense.Maybe someone can put me straight.
I am probably more novice than you when it comes to FX. That idea of yours is not a bad one to test, why don't you? Thanks God for demo accounts, you can trade like a millionaire without having a penny to your name

I think that FX is a zero-sum market if we ignore some factors like overall global financial expansion... There is a "constant" amount of money in the FX market that always moves "around", we are just trying to be on the receiving side of some of these moves. If a country tries to cheat and create wealth out of thin air by printing more money, the market reacts by devaluing its currency, so indeed it is a zero-sum market.

I have realized that basket trading has a great advantage that is missing in single pair trading. That's why I have decided not to trade single pairs for as long as I trade in FX. If we could minimize the DD, we don't even have to worry about margin calls. Our system is a great system that does a great job of identifying the right pairs for the basket, it is just not very good at determining the right direction to trade.
Everything in the universe is mathematical including fear and greed.
  • #650
  • Aug 25, 2017 2:41pm Aug 25, 2017 2:41pm
Hey we at least had one good basket this week. LO indicators were about the same so that would have been a good basket if it were triggered. Everything else was red however but the updated strength basket actually had some green but still overall red for the week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #651
  • Aug 25, 2017 3:19pm Aug 25, 2017 3:19pm
Quoting bae67
{quote} I am probably more novice than you when it comes to FX. That idea of yours is not a bad one to test, why don't you? Thanks God for demo accounts, you can trade like a millionaire without having a penny to your name I think that FX is a zero-sum market if we ignore some factors like overall global financial expansion... There is a "constant" amount of money in the FX market that always moves "around", we are just trying to be on the receiving side of some of these moves. If a country tries to cheat and create wealth out of thin air...
When I free up some cpu power from all these test baskets I might have a go. Thanks for your insight.I agree,I think we are on the right track here and we will find our way through as long as we all persevere.

Have a good weekend mate,see you on the other side.
  • #652
  • Aug 25, 2017 3:23pm Aug 25, 2017 3:23pm
Ok guys I did my weekly analysis and unfortunately due to some technical errors this week, this wasn't a good week to log any solid data. I had a quite a few misfires this week which obviously screws with the data collection. Overall the same top 4 came out on tops with the little data I was able to capture, so no changes there. Also my current live set up will remain unchanged going into next week. For now this is what I feel confident putting my money on.

The addition of the VB was a great idea and I can't for the life of me figure out why I never did it before! My TO basket last night, and my LO basket this morning didn't trigger and by this afternoon when I closed the LO basket, it was floating around -300 pips, so the VB really saved me on a loss there. I think this will be a good move for those ones which go straight to DD and don't come back.

Below you can see my current live set up which you can test for yourself.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #653
  • Aug 25, 2017 3:55pm Aug 25, 2017 3:55pm
Quoting nihilist23uk
{quote} When I free up some cpu power from all these test baskets I might have a go. Thanks for your insight.I agree,I think we are on the right track here and we will find our way through as long as we all persevere. Have a good weekend mate,see you on the other side.
You have a wonderful weekend too.

I understand you when you are complaining about CPU time; I am in dire need of upgrading my system which I built 5 years ago. Many times running 5 mt4s each with 10 baskets, the whole thing freezes. I have all the parts picked out, just needs the time when FX market is not very active like during Christmas time.

By the way, when I say "keeping the DD low" for me is just the same as saying "predicting the right direction to trade." I don't want anyone to think that I am contradicting myself.
Everything in the universe is mathematical including fear and greed.
  • #654
  • Aug 25, 2017 4:27pm Aug 25, 2017 4:27pm
Guys I would highly suggest downloading the beta 39 or higher version of xmess EA because he just added an option do allow trades to be added to basket if the signals change. So if your signals update and show new pairs after the basket opens it will open the new signals. This is a HUGE benefit for short term and maybe even long term baskets as it adapts to the market. I will be testing this option with most of the baskets I have running and hopefully it improves the results. Here is the link to xmess's website to download.

http://xm7.info/ea/ccfp_weekly/
  • #655
  • Aug 25, 2017 4:34pm Aug 25, 2017 4:34pm
Quoting Embry1
Guys I would highly suggest downloading the beta 39 or higher version of xmess EA because he just added an option do allow trades to be added to basket if the signals change. So if your signals update and show new pairs after the basket opens it will open the new signals. This is a HUGE benefit for short term and maybe even long term baskets as it adapts to the market. I will be testing this option with most of the baskets I have running and hopefully it improves the results. Here is the link to xmess's website to download. http://xm7.info/ea/ccfp_weekly/...
Yeah and I also like the new option that if a signal on the list changes from a buy to a sell or vice versa, the EA will close that trade and open a new trade based on the new signal.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #656
  • Aug 25, 2017 5:00pm Aug 25, 2017 5:00pm
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} Yeah and I also like the new option that if a signal on the list changes from a buy to a sell or vice versa, the EA will close that trade and open a new trade based on the new signal.
I hope that doesn't affect the pip count though, if you close a trade when the basket is open it skews the pip count.
  • #657
  • Aug 25, 2017 5:57pm Aug 25, 2017 5:57pm
I had my normal TO and LO ... and will learn from my mistakes
When you are successful perhaps give a thought to others ... Kiva dot org
  • #658
  • Aug 25, 2017 6:56pm Aug 25, 2017 6:56pm
Quoting Embry1
{quote} I hope that doesn't affect the pip count though, if you close a trade when the basket is open it skews the pip count.
Yes I think it will especially if a trade is in DD. If that signal/trade which is in DD is the one that changes then the EA will close it and open a new trade in the other direction, so it will change the pip count but my thinking is that it's a good thing as the original signal in DD will be affecting the basket negatively so with it being closed it allows the new signal to be added to the basket giving it a better chance of reaching TP quicker.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #659
  • Aug 25, 2017 6:57pm Aug 25, 2017 6:57pm
Quoting PayItForward
I had my normal TO and LO ... and will learn from my mistakes
What happened mate?
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #660
  • Aug 25, 2017 7:23pm Aug 25, 2017 7:23pm
I have been thinking about what we can do to keep the DD low in the baskets we trade. This is what I finally came up with.

I think we need to carry out a systematic study of those baskets that end up with a large DD and result in fail trades. Instead of trying to see if TO is better than LO or (please notice that I am not trying to discount anyone's hard work here) ... we need to focus on our selection rules. For what it is worth, this is what I propose:

1. Dissect those baskets with high DD.
2. In the above mentioned baskets, separate those pairs that caused the large DD.
3. Having separated those "rotten" pairs (or is it rotten pears ), go back to our selection rules and see how and why we selected those trouble-making pairs.
4. Modify and fine tune our selection rules in order to exlucde those rotten pairs that caused the large DD.
5. Test our new selection rules.
6. After testing the new rules, further fine tune them.
7. Repeat this procedure until we reach an acceptable level of DD in our baskets.

What do you guys think?
Everything in the universe is mathematical including fear and greed.
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