Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

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Click on the "clip" on top of this thread, search the .doc file "too slow strategy" for a detailed explanation and review what are you doing wrong

REVERSALS FROM BREAKOUTS SHOULD BE TRADED WITH CAUTION

I think here is the problem. WITH CAUTION - what does it mean? Open or not to open?

Think this through yourself for a minute. You have a breakout. What's that telling you? Something big is moving the price in one particular direction. It has momentum behind it.

Now, yes, one could say that maybe that means there will be a fall back from a new high - maybe. However this is like saying that you've tossed a coin 20 times and it has come up heads every time, so the next one has to be tails.

So, yes, you can trade in these conditions but would it not be easier and safer to look for a more solid opportunity elsewhere? HOLO operates best in ranging conditions.

For those with more experience, we'd be looking to move to a 1-2-3 set-up on any breakout bar that makes a new High or Low but for now, ignore that side of things.

No HoLo trades for me yesteday (very busy "other business" week)- looks like it would have been 2W 1L.

This morning Trade #5 -2 DAX (b/e slippage) & Trade #6 GJ short open and presently negative (13 pip stop in place & 60 mins from major GBP news) :



* there's a multiple entry shown on the GJ chart because I made a HoLo preset, but in error used Ticks instead of Pips, so had a set 2 pip instead of 20 pip preset stop, which kicked me straight out of first entry (not counting it <arms folded> !).

Edit 1 : DAX just hit +21 target : stop to b/e too soon, I think.... but on second thoughts, correct action was to re-enter trade.
Edit 2 : GJ stopped at -1R.

Hi JaqenHgar. Good to see you here.

I don't know how experienced you are - most specifically as re The DAX. If you have been running with The Monster for a while, apologies for me about to tell you stuff you already know!

Anyway, just in case, you should be aware that The DAX is notorious for fakeouts. It is almost set in stone that there will be a move one way, then almost immediately a move in the opposite direction. This could be a small micro-blip or a slightly longer move. However, it will then turn once more and make its bigger move for the morning.

The sizes of these moves will vary from day-to-day but generally that's the score. This can mean that the first move can get the money in the bag but more often than not, it won't and will then take you out. However, knowing what is likely to come next, means that, yes, it is a good idea to re-enter on the move you wanted.

I am a bit of a DAX-junkie and the pay-offs can be huge but it isn't an instrument for the faint of heart!

Thanks for the kind words &, yes, I have traded the DAX (mostly FDAX, in fact) over the years. I'm now trying to get away from fast charts, hence my attempt to stay with H1 charts for this method (but I just put up M15 for reentries).

My DAX Trade #7 was the Long on the current H1 bar for +20 (missed a +34 target by 3 pips), and for Trade #8 I reentered my GJ short for the same negative outcome as Trade # 6. I can think of several reasons NOT to have reentered, but it's always easy after the fact...

I intend to complete a Douglas-style 20 trade test run, currently looking like this after 8 trades (expressed in R values) :



Incidentally, DAX Trade #7 would have hit my +34 if I had not had 5 pips slippage on a Stop entry : I prefer to use Limit entries with FX and CFDs for this reason & would love it if Stop Limits could be made available for non-futures markets (apparently not possible in the absence of a regulated exchange). Whilst typing, the DAX has bounced through the target & is heading towards +100 : a concern I have for TooSlow's excellent two threads is the often low Reward to Risk, requiring very high win %. I know Avery/TRO (I actually met him many years ago !) reckons that statistically "throwing coins in the bucket" adds up steadily as long as one does indeed grab the coin when offered, but I do find it hard to get my head around this.

GJ has also come back to my entry, but "enough for today" : I'm happy to make just a few trades each European morning.

Good stuff. I'm preaching to the converted, then, lol.

If you like the way The DAX moves, have you ever considered the F40? They mirror each other but the F40 moves slightly smoother. The only caveat to that is that it often gaps...so I guess it's ''swings-and-roundabouts''.

The Head Alien is a friend and I run his techniques almost exclusively now, after years in a fund running on the very high time-frames.

As for the r:r issue, one way around that is to use a counter-trade technique instead of a hard-stop. This won't be available to those in the US however (though there are ways round that). It's also not an official HOLO technique, nor recommended for those new to the game. We're just spit-ballin' here.

I haven't been running HOLO so much recently (nothing to be read into that, I just don't have enough hours in the day) but I run 1-2-3 on the indices, as that runs on from the other methods I do run just now.

All the best on your journey.

How to Stay Committed When Results Are Sub Par


You have probably been told by your coaches or parents that hard work is the key to success.

You have seen professional athletes credit their success to hard work. And you have probably read countless motivational sayings espousing the virtues of hard work.

If hard work is the key to athletic success, why do some athletes give up on hard work and lose motivation?

There are several reasons why athletes stop working hard in their sport... Too much pressure, no longer interested in competing, injuries, not playing to one's potential, etc.

But the biggest reason athletes give up on working hard is that they don’t see results immediately.

For example, you start a season after a disappointing previous year but this season is going to be different...

You set your sights high convinced you will accomplish your goals. You push in practice like never before and feel determined to have a breakout season.

But after a few mediocre performances, your motivation lessens...

Your intensity in practices lessens. You start to question if all the hard work is worth it and you fall back into relying on talent alone.

Unfortunately, some athletes don’t understand that success isn’t just a matter of hard work... It is a matter of hard work over a significant period of time AND the right attitude.

Hard work is just like it sounds... hard, but the rewards are huge.

In order to sustain your motivation and patience through the ups and downs, you need to be mentally strong and determined.

Martin Flores is a journeyman golfer whose hard work over the course of years has paid off.

Flores needed a good showing at the 2017 Wyndham Championship to secure his PGA Tour card for next season.

Flores entered the final round outside the top 20 on the leader board then shot one of the best rounds of the tournament (63) to finish tied for seventh and moved Flores inside the projected cut for the PGA Tour postseason.

At the tournament, Flores spoke about how his hard work and persistence over the course of years has paid great dividends in his recent performances.

FLORES: "You know, just lot of blood, sweat and tears and, you know, this game will beat you down sometimes and you'll have a lot of struggles and when things finally go how you envision in your mind you see all your hard work payoff."

If you want your hard work, you need to know a few things:

Like Flores, you need a goal or something to works towards...

You need to put in quality effort and maintain a proper focus...

You need to hold steady, be persistent, and keep working when you hit rough patches...

You need to visualizing reaching your goal and live it every day.

Above all, you need to believe that your hard work will pay off eventually.

How to Stay Committed to Working Hard Over Time:

When things get tough, remind yourself of this analogy...

Accomplishing your goals is a journey, no different than driving your car from coast to coast.

Just as gas fuels a car; hard work fuels performance. But you can’t travel a long distance without constantly re-fueling.

If you want to accomplish your long-term goals, you need to maintain your intensity, drive, and positive attitude over the long haul.

With hard work and perseverance over time, you give yourself the best chance to reach that desired destination.

- Dr. Patrick J. Cohn

Great stuff..GREAT advice

Thanks, danc.

Draghi speaks today and RED on the EUR this am - be wary!

Trade # 9 DAX +1 DAX needs much more room before stop to b/e "It's obvious, isn't it !?"

2 days in a row 100+ DAX moves missed (but could have been bitten both times...) :



(I did also make an M6E trade... but as I went short (winner) by mistake, instead of Long (loser), I'll pretend it never happened...)

Great post, thank-you.

I have always felt that Life is so much easier when one works hard...

2 days in a row 100+ DAX moves missed (but could have been bitten both times...) :

The DAX-Monster has very sharp teeth ...

You also find that, as Arnold Palmer once said (or stole from elsewhere, as it turned out and I'll paraphrase, lol)...the harder you work, the luckier you get.

Trade # 10 DAX reentry at higher level, stopped @ b/e (could have taken 10)
Trade # 11 GJ short stopped @ b/e.

As a former futures day trader (fast charts), I am familiar with the challenges of moving stops to breakeven fast and therefore often too soon, but I feel the need to do a brain reset this weekend along the lines of "Just because others move their stops to b/e @ +5, it doesn't mean I should". We are after all trading our own psychology, more than any method... and it is so easy to use the rules of others as an excuse for one's own actions (I am not suggesting moving to b/e after 5 pips isn't right for others).



Enough for today, time for a cappuccino in the sun .

So after 1 week, 11 trades +2.34R, a satisfactory beginning : 4W, 2L, 5 b/e (counting b/e anything between plus or minus 2).

Who is taking the 10 trade challenge the week of AUGUST 27, 2017?

During the challenge you are only to trade the same pair.
Beginners do not get to trade multiple pairs until they have mastered trading one single pair.
GREEN PIPS TO ALL.
Cheers!

Possible late entry for today - good potential movement on tomorrow's UK open after the Bank Holiday...