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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #5,181
  • Aug 15, 2017 11:41am Aug 15, 2017 11:41am
Got a decent bounce back on EU with some clean bull PA on M15.. Would have made a nice buy.

Now onto DX on D1 looks pretty constructive for a further break north based on current PA.

Not sure how far this can retrace. The LTF DX demand / EU supply are pretty sparse so fresh DX demands needed.

FOMC should keep things tricky for scalpers from here...
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  • #5,182
  • Aug 16, 2017 3:19am Aug 16, 2017 3:19am
Anyone catch this one?
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  • #5,183
  • Aug 16, 2017 6:36am Aug 16, 2017 6:36am
A pretty good situation to be in prior to FOMC. Let's see if the upper short produces....
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  • #5,184
  • Aug 16, 2017 11:39am Aug 16, 2017 11:39am
Some more easy potential entries on this chart... Looks like a scalpers paradise today.

It's on day's like this you can rack up a serious pip count on M5..
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  • #5,185
  • Aug 17, 2017 5:08am Aug 17, 2017 5:08am
A few pips...
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  • #5,186
  • Aug 17, 2017 5:43am Aug 17, 2017 5:43am
Quoting madboy
A few pips... {image}
You read my mind.

Been a nice week on EU.
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  • #5,187
  • Aug 17, 2017 3:42pm Aug 17, 2017 3:42pm
DX daily and H4 PA..

Are we finally going to make a break out of this range..
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  • #5,188
  • Aug 21, 2017 8:28am Aug 21, 2017 8:28am
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possible sell trade,

EURUSD 20/08/17 (14.30 GMT)
  • #5,189
  • Aug 21, 2017 10:08am Aug 21, 2017 10:08am
I'm waiting at this point but we are in a H4 zone... Still got 2 buys running from earlier atm. this might make a run for the upper daily zone and higher..

Will need to have a fresh look and will post up some charts when I get home from work.
  • #5,190
  • Aug 21, 2017 10:31am Aug 21, 2017 10:31am
Here's the DX view... Daily looks like it's rolling over in my eyes but we do have some H4 demand here.
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  • #5,191
  • Edited 11:32am Aug 21, 2017 10:41am | Edited 11:32am
EU view. Took 2/3 out. Will see what tomorrow brings.

These earlier scalp buys were extremely high probability once H4 engulfed.. shorting right here is not a low risk entry in my view unless scalping a few (..at this moment) and would need an overnight hold if playing the full zone.

But sure, it could end up being a reversal area..
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  • #5,192
  • Aug 22, 2017 11:44am Aug 22, 2017 11:44am
Hi C12,
Does the SupDem Indicator repaint. On the lower TF i am having problem entering the trades as most of the time the trades go against me. Do you trade the trend. How do you analyze the trade..
Your salary is the bribe they give you to forget your dreams
  • #5,193
  • Edited 1:28pm Aug 22, 2017 1:15pm | Edited 1:28pm
Quoting horvat
Hi C12, Does the SupDem Indicator repaint. On the lower TF i am having problem entering the trades as most of the time the trades go against me. Do you trade the trend. How do you analyze the trade..
Supdem will only repaint fresh SD zones once they've formed. The old ones get removed once they've been broken.

I trade mostly off H4 direction and PA and then using LTF zones and englufing PA in this direction.

It's a tricky way to trade to emulate and does need a hell of a lot of practice (and I take quite a few little niggly mini losses on the way and is part of the strategy).

In these charts below it's really all on H4 but I like using a LTF (M30/M15/M5) to give me some PA to hide stops behind and keep things tight.

My plan is to trend follow on H4 as day trades but not necessarily making long term plays on direction or picking tops or bottoms.
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  • #5,194
  • Aug 22, 2017 1:32pm Aug 22, 2017 1:32pm
Quoting horvat
Hi C12, Does the SupDem Indicator repaint. On the lower TF i am having problem entering the trades as most of the time the trades go against me. Do you trade the trend. How do you analyze the trade..
If a LTF midzone (ie RBR / DBD) gets taken out with an engulfing candle, these are usually good entries to trade back in direction of the trend.
  • #5,195
  • Edited 2:02pm Aug 22, 2017 1:45pm | Edited 2:02pm
Here's the DX.. This daily PA must drive swing style traders insane..

I've given up on making predictions... Best to just follow the price...

Over the last few weeks I've tried to leave a position on each day to see if it can run.. There's been a lot of wasted pips given back on break evens.

I don't think it's a great idea to try and run trades on this pair. Grab the pips and then close up seems to work best on EU.
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  • #5,196
  • Aug 22, 2017 2:22pm Aug 22, 2017 2:22pm
Monthly shows price is at a very interesting spot in time.Could turn back up around here.
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  • #5,197
  • Aug 22, 2017 2:26pm Aug 22, 2017 2:26pm
Thank you for the detailed explanation, will take it as a reference while trading next time. My problem is maybe impatience as on HTF the setup take a long time and then i tend to trade LTF where my inexperience leads to most of the errors. I let the losers run in the hope that the price will come back, but more often it doesnt and the winners i exit after few pips. I am sure you heard that many times

So according to your screenshots you wait for spikes in the S&D zones alongwith PA to go in a trade. What is your exit strategy as i see you enter multiple trades and exit few and let the other one run and lastly what role does the MA plays on your chart...is it just to determine the trend
Your salary is the bribe they give you to forget your dreams
  • #5,198
  • Edited 3:03pm Aug 22, 2017 2:40pm | Edited 3:03pm
Quoting madboy
Monthly shows price is at a very interesting spot in time.Could turn back up around here. {image}
Yes I'm partial to a dollar bull move but all eyes are on on it and there can be a lot of sneaky twists and turns... Good conditions for day traders.

There is an unfilled gap at 1.20 on EU which is still in the back of my mind.
  • #5,199
  • Aug 22, 2017 2:54pm Aug 22, 2017 2:54pm
Quoting horvat
Thank you for the detailed explanation, will take it as a reference while trading next time. My problem is maybe impatience as on HTF the setup take a long time and then i tend to trade LTF where my inexperience leads to most of the errors. I let the losers run in the hope that the price will come back, but more often it doesnt and the winners i exit after few pips.
Yes, so try and do the opposite. Try exiting the losers fast when PA clearly going badly and then look to H4 targets once you've got a trade running with PA in your direction. This can take a while to learn since we hate any form of loser.

The 200 EMA is just purely something that can offer some quick info of gauging trend on the TF your trading on... Never something to buy or sell off but price does have a strange way of reacting to it at certain times.

I like to try and scalp some pips in a session. Sometimes these just make up for the niggly losers and then the main positions are free to run.

Price will spend time stuck in a range for a lot of times and there are multiple dead zones in the session. Pick your battles wisely, wait for H4 or M30 to confirm the move and then hunt down an entry. The news calendar is your best friend.
  • #5,200
  • Aug 23, 2017 11:46am Aug 23, 2017 11:46am
Had an early start at work so missed this textbook action....

The session started with a fakeout to the downside followed by a nice M15/M30 bull engulf out of H4 demand.... Buying at this point was a no brainer for some easy pips..
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