Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

EUR/USD Update Monday September 18 at 24:00 ET

On the upwards corrective wave we predicted a reversal point of about 1.2700, which is why I posted a prediction trade yesterday as quoted below with entry at 1.2697. Now EUR/USD has risen to 1.2726, which is not unexpected. Based on the latest data, for this trade to be secure in surviving, the stop will need to be raised to 1.2756. This increases the risk to 61 pips, but this is still acceptable as the likelihood of meeting the target at about 125.55 or lower is quite high, which means the reward is 141 pips, so the reward : risk ratio is still decent.
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Previous trade signal:

Monday September 18 at 2:00 ET

Trade Signal #176 Sell EUR/USD at 126.97
Stop is 127.32
Target is 125.55
Risk is 37 pips
Reward is 141 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 3.8 to 1

For research purposes only.
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Hello itme first i am very impressed how you are abel to predict price movement. I had one quick question. do you think we could be in a wave three in the gbpusd pair with take profit at 1.8926 and 1.9057

Hi FixMe1too

What you suggest about GBP/USD is of course possible, but my system and my present level of application states that GBP/USD has just completed a small upwards "abc" corrective wave that is a retracement in a large downwards Wave 3 leading towards 1.8250 and below. We see the movement up from 1.7060 as a corrective "ABC" wave that is now complete.

There are various possible interpretations. The key is to develop a viable counting methodology, and to be consistent. Then if your methodology sometimes fails, then seek to enhance or correct it until it is always or usually correct.

I looked at the one day chart again, and can easily see how we might be in the fifth wave of a third wave up, trending towards about 1.9700. First of all, it has to come down though.

what a pick on the EUR/JPY entry...keep up the good work/research....

There are various possible interpretations. The key is to develop a viable counting methodology, and to be consistent. Then if your methodology sometimes fails, then seek to enhance or correct it until it is always or usually correct.I agree thanx alot
FiXmE1ToO

And it also looks like a great entry into the GBPUSD (1.8832) .. looks to be topping right now at your levels below .. I guess this would also be a good time to SELL GBPJPY too 222.10

Tuesday September 19 at 4:45 ET

Since entering this trade at 2.3673 GBP/CHF descended 188 pips to 2.3485, then bounced up 115 pips in a corrective wave to 2.3600

Re-Entry Opportunity Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3600

Stop is 2.3636

Target #1 is 2.3210

Risk is 51 pips

Reward is 375 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 7.4 to 1

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Previous trade signal:

Friday September 15 at 4:45 ET
Trade Signal #173 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3673
Stop is 2.3711
Target #1 is 2.3210
Risk is 53 pips
Reward is 448 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 8.5 to 1

For research purposes only.
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Tuesday September 19 at 5:15 ET

GBP/USD did not quite rise to meet our entry price at 1.8832. It stopped rising at 1.8827, exactly in the middle of the range that our system predicted for a top of the trend (predicted turnaround point was between 1.8823 and 1.8832). It then fell 55 pips to 1.8772, then bounced up 41 pips to 1.8813, which is a re-entry opportunity.

Trade Signal #178A Sell GBP/USD at 1.8812

Stop is 1.8843

Target #1 is 1.8700

For research purposes only.

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Previous comments and trade signal:

Monday September 18 at 18:15 ET

GBP/USD and EUR/USD are both very close to the tops of their upwards corrective waves. So far EUR/USD has risen to 1.2708, and GBP/USD has risen to 1.8810. GBP/USD has a fiesty character, and may jump up another 25 pips, while EUR/USD may rise a much smaller amount.

Our targets for the top of the upwards corrective wave for GBP/USD are 1.8823 and 1.8832. To be safe we will enter a trade signal assuming the higher figure. The stop is 1.8873 and first target is 1.700 - we are trading the downwards 5th or else the 3rd wave of the 3rd wave of a downwards wave pattern which is the "b" wave of an upwards corrective "abc".....

Trade Signal #178 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8832
Stop is 1.8873
Target #1 is 1.8700
Risk is 44 pips
Reward is 129 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 2.9 to 1

For research purposes only.

Hello Itme....I'm sorry to ask this one cos I am not following your thread since the beginning. Could you please share with us how is your strategy to decide buy on this price or sell on that price and the target too? I do really want to learn where the strategy came from, not just the signal. Thank You for your kind attention. And it's very nice to watch your journal per trades. Too bad, I am not following it from the beginning and I don't have much time to read page per page.

Thanks Itme.


Warmest Regards.

Hi Bom-Bom

The strategy is a combination of Elliott Wave and another confidential model somewhat similar to Elliott Wave Theory. To learn either would probably take a few months full time study and practise, and then to integrate and coordinate the process another month or two full time. Even then the process is still in constant development. It sounds like you don't have sufficient time to approach this method. But reading books about Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonnaci Analysis would definitely help in the long run. The New Science of Technical Analysis has some helpful ideas in it too. We also incorporate the study of announcement trading, which is another difficult and complex matter, involving both fundamental and technical aspects.

Note to Jacko,

I suggest that you employ coin flipping to determine the entry price, stop and target for trades, and then test your success rate. I predict that the return on capital would be approximately 0% in many trades.

first I wana thank you and till u that I like and admire your thread so much
I wana ask u could i use elliot waves with meta trader ... if so plz till me how
" I'm using elliot waves with meta stock9 and it's very helpfull to me but i don't know the way to but it on meta trade"
thanks


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good job itme...i like your commitment here...

do you have calculation of high and low for this week for EU?

Tuesday September 19 at 13:00 ET

Trade Signal #180 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1283

Stop is 1.1306

Target #1 is 1.1025

Risk is 28 pips

Reward is 253 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 9.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

Tuesday September 19 at 13:30 ET

Trade Signal #181 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4284

Stop is 1.4315

Target #1 is 1.4100

Risk is 41 pips

Reward is 174 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

Wednesday September 20 1:15 ET

Further study suggests that USD/CAD is likely to rise one more time before the upward trend reverses.
Exit Trade Signal #180 Sell USD/CAD at market price (approx. 1.1260) for a small profit, and re-enter after one more step (component wave) up at approximately 1.1330 to 1.1375

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Previous trade signal:

Tuesday September 19 at 13:00 ET
Trade Signal #180 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1283
Stop is 1.1306
Target #1 is 1.1025
Risk is 28 pips
Reward is 253 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 9.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

Wednesday September 20 at 2:00 ET

Trade Signal #178A Sell GBP/USD at 1.8812 identified the top of the GBP/USD Wave 2 retracement with 1 pip accuracy. The price then fell to 1.8786, bounced up, and then down, and then a major announcement happened. This morning’s 8:30 ET data releases (see below) were disappointing for the USD, causing GBP/USD to spike up 96 pips to 1.8886, hitting our stop which was placed at 1.8843. (The spike on EUR/USD was not large enough to cause our stop to be hit on our short EUR/USD trade.)

We should have monitored this important PPI news, and responded by reversing our short position on GBP/USD to profit from the news the moment that the news was released. U.S. Core PPI was .6% worse than expected, which can be predicted to produce a minimum 75 pips spike in GBP/USD based on previous data spikes. And then we should have re-entered the short GBP/USD trade at the top of the announcement spike at 1.8886, but we were not monitoring the announcements this morning.<o></o>

<o></o> GBP/USD subsequently dropped 86 pips to 1.8800 and then bounced up 46 pips to 1.8846, which was another possible re-entry point. The current price is 1.8830, which is an adequate price to re-enter this trade.<o></o>

Trade Signal #178B Sell GBP/USD at 1.8830<o></o>

<o></o>Stop is 1.8866<o></o>

<o></o>Target #1 is 1.8700

Risk is 39 pips

Reward is 127 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 3.2 to 1<o></o>

For research purposes only.

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This morning's data releases:<o></o>

<o></o><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" oreferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"/> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"/> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"/> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"/> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"/> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"/> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"/> </v:formulas> <vath o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"/> <o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="t"/> </v:shapetype><v:shape id="_x0000_i1025" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="" style='width:15pt; height:12pt'> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\default\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.gif" o:href="http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/images/misc/mi_med.gif"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1026" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="" style='width:15pt;height:12pt'> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\default\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.gif" o:href="http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/images/misc/mi_med.gif"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]-->8:30am USD Producer Price Index m/m <table class="tborder" style="margin-top: 12px;" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <thead><tr><td class="alt1" align="center">0.1%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.3%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.1%</td></tr></thead> </table>
8:30am USD Core PPI m/m <table class="tborder" style="margin-top: 12px;" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <thead><tr><td class="alt1" align="center">-0.4%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.2%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-0.3%</td></tr></thead> </table>
<o></o> 8:30am USD Housing Starts <table class="tborder" style="margin-top: 12px;" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <thead><tr><td class="alt1" align="center">1.66M</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">1.75M</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">1.80M</td></tr></thead> </table> <!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1027" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="" style='width:15pt;height:12pt'> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\default\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.gif" o:href="http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/images/misc/mi_med.gif"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]-->
8:30am <st1lace w:st="on"><st1lacename w:st="on">USD</st1lacename> <st1lacetype w:st="on">Building</st1lacetype></st1lace> Permits <table class="tborder" style="margin-top: 12px;" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <thead><tr><td class="alt1" align="center">1.72M</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">1.76M</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">1.76M</td></tr></thead> </table>
The housing market slowdown continued into August, with housing starts lower than anticipated at 1.722 mln units - worse than 1.75-mln forecasted and down from 1.763 previously. Building permits also fell short of expectations, at just 1.665-mln units, versus calls for a drop to 1.75-mln and down from 1.763 mln units. Furthermore, the producer price index posted a 0.4% decline when economists were looking for a 0.2% increase.
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Previous trade signal:<!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1028" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="" style='width:15pt;height:12pt'> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\default\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image002.gif" o:href="http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/images/misc/mi_low.gif"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]-->

Tuesday September 19 at 5:15 ET

GBP/USD did not quite rise to meet our entry price at 1.8832. It stopped rising at 1.8827, exactly in the middle of the range that our system predicted for a top of the trend (predicted turnaround point was between 1.8823 and 1.8832). It then fell 55 pips to 1.8772, then bounced up 41 pips to 1.8813, which is a re-entry opportunity.

Trade Signal #178A Sell GBP/USD at 1.8812
Stop is 1.8843
Target #1 is 1.8700

For research purposes only.

Wednesday September 20 at 3:00 ET

Exit Trade Signal #168 Buy AUD/USD at market price (which is approx. .7525)

Further study and contemplation of AUD/USD has lead us to conclude that the most likely Elliott Wave interpretation is different than the one that underlay our Trade Signal #168 Buy AUD/USD at .7514.

We had thought at the time that we were entering a buy position at the start of Wave 3 of a 5 wave upwards wave pattern. However, we now believe we entered the buy trade at the bottom of "Wave 4" and the start of "Wave 5" of an "a" upwards corrective wave. What followed was a rise of 53 pips up to the top of the "a" at .7567, then a decline to the bottom of "b" at a price of .7503, then a rise to .7573 which was the top of "c" , slightly higher than wave "a", and then a decline back down to .7504.

The price is generally expected now to decline further, so we advise exit of this trade at the market price of approximately .7525.

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Previous comment and trade signal:

AUD/USD update for Friday September 15 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">Friday September 15 at 5:45 ET

Since the long AUD/USD trade was entered yesterday at .7514 this pair went directly up to .7568 which was the top of Wave 1 of a five wave set, then descended in a complex corrective Wave 2 pattern to the current price of .7514 - a round trip from the bottom of a component Wave 4 to the top of a component Wave 5, then down to the bottom of the larger second corrective wave. This is another excellent entry point for what should be a strong Wave 3 upwards towards the first major bounce point at .7600 on the way up to .7700 and higher.
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Thursday September 14 1:45 ET

Between September 5 and September 13 AUD/USD fell 3.1% or 238 pips from .7721 to .7483. It then rose 61 pips in a first upwards wave, then retraced 34 pips in a corrective wave. It should now proceed up towards its target of .7723 or higher, to complete the upwards trend which commenced June 28, 2006.
Trade Signal #168 buy AUD/USD at .7514
Stop is .7489
Target is .7723
Risk is 29 pips
Reward is 204 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 7.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

Wednesday September 20 at 3:15 ET

Delayed signal:

Exit Trade Signal #181 Sell EUR/CAD at a market price of 1.4260

One hour ago we recognised that both USD/CAD and EUR/CAD would probably be going up one more time, and that it was therefore best to exit our short positions on both these currency pairs and to take small profits.

Because we were busy with other matters, we couldn't post the signal, yet our trading system clearly indicates that we should be exiting EUR/CAD at 1.4260 , the bottom of an "abc" corrective wave, and thus take a small profit of about 14 pips. We should be looking at shorting this pair at about 1.4350 or higher.

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Previous trade signal:

Tuesday September 19 at 13:30 ET
Trade Signal #181 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4284
Stop is 1.4315
Target #1 is 1.4100
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 174 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

Wednesday September 20 at 4:30 ET

To be ultra-safe, we recommend adjusting the target (limit) of Trade Signal #179 Sell EUR/JPY at 150.22 from 148.10 to 148.17. We should reach there tonight. The most recent low is 148.25
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Previous trade signal:

Monday September 18 at 19:00 ET

Our system predicts a reversal of EUR/JPY at between 150.07 and 150.29 . As a conservative strategy, we will advise entry at 150.22, and place the stop at 150.52 and our first target is 148.10
Trade Signal #179 Sell EUR/JPY at 150.22
Stop is 150.52
Target is 148.10
Risk is 35 pips
Reward is 209 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 6.0 to 1

For research purposes only.