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  • #801
  • Aug 16, 2017 2:16am Aug 16, 2017 2:16am
Quoting zentrader8
Today trade - 5 pips.
Good morning,

I am following this thread from the very beginning. Last week I came back to see what was happening here since I was away from may. Hence I have question to all who are still here. Are you keeping up with this method (original or modified)? Are you getting profits? Can you present some past performance since march 2017 (starting of the thread)?

Thanks! Hope to hear from ya' all.
  • #802
  • Aug 16, 2017 4:11pm Aug 16, 2017 4:11pm
Quoting Plainview
{quote} Good morning, I am following this thread from the very beginning. Last week I came back to see what was happening here since I was away from may. Hence I have question to all who are still here. Are you keeping up with this method (original or modified)? Are you getting profits? Can you present some past performance since march 2017 (starting of the thread)? Thanks! Hope to hear from ya' all.
hi
im still here.now im trading.with modified method.
these few weeks is not a good day with these method but if you trade from the beginning of.year i.think.it would be profit after all..maybe you can run a bit backtest with these modified method(5 tp and 12 tp) with 10 pips stop loss..im still trading the same.method.i think consistency is one of factor to be succeed.
  • #803
  • Aug 17, 2017 5:39am Aug 17, 2017 5:39am
today trade both ended with profits , gain 17 pips today.
  • #804
  • Aug 17, 2017 5:47am Aug 17, 2017 5:47am
Read and re-read this thread for the past 2 days. Tried the original Zen method yesterday. I traded A/J yesterday (+19.8) at the Tokyo Open and E/U this morning (+25) on the London Open for a total of 44.8 pips. Waking up this morning, I see that I could've gotten more, but I set my SL/TP and went with it, so I am very satisfied. Thanks Zen & Grim for your contributions. I hope to follow these with more winning trades.
  • #805
  • Aug 22, 2017 1:17pm Aug 22, 2017 1:17pm
Good evening,

I am still interested in this method and I am doing now automatic backtests based on first post.

I use six month periods blocks due to daylight saving time and clock changes march/october. I will not elaborate on details but to my best calculation this strategy give 62% positive trades in 2016. I hope my small contribution to this thread will profit you all.

Best!
  • #806
  • Aug 22, 2017 8:34pm Aug 22, 2017 8:34pm
Quoting Plainview
Good evening, I am still interested in this method and I am doing now automatic backtests based on first post. I use six month periods blocks due to daylight saving time and clock changes march/october. I will not elaborate on details but to my best calculation this strategy give 62% positive trades in 2016. I hope my small contribution to this thread will profit you all. Best!
this backtest use 15 pips sl and 10 pips tp?without any martiangle?

Could you please help me to check the second method, which use two trade 5 and 12 pips tp with 10 pips sl.because right now i currently use this method.
thankyou very much.
  • #807
  • Edited 3:21am Aug 23, 2017 3:01am | Edited 3:21am
Quoting zentrader8
{quote} this backtest use 15 pips sl and 10 pips tp?without any martiangle?
Yes. Those are my variables and there was no martiangle. Second trade on the same day is on average 60% positive but it will not change profits to your favor.

You must be aware that although 62% trades were positive, Stop Loss to Take Profit ratio in unfavorable. Profit Factor for this strategy is 0.79. And only above 1.20 we can talk about profitable strategy. This setup will, unfortunately, loose money.
  • #808
  • Aug 23, 2017 10:30pm Aug 23, 2017 10:30pm
Quoting Plainview
{quote} Yes. Those are my variables and there was no martiangle. Second trade on the same day is on average 60% positive but it will not change profits to your favor. You must be aware that although 62% trades were positive, Stop Loss to Take Profit ratio in unfavorable. Profit Factor for this strategy is 0.79. And only above 1.20 we can talk about profitable strategy. This setup will, unfortunately, loose money.
okay thanks.
thats why i use two trade,.remember if we use two tradethen it will reduce the risk and also there are some intersecting on the risk.example:
if first trade win we gain 5 pips.
and the second trade we lose then we only lost 5 pips.
but if we both take profit we gain 17 pips.
so i think the profit factor hasnt calculated it.
  • #809
  • Aug 24, 2017 6:22am Aug 24, 2017 6:22am
today both trade ended with profits,earn 17 pips today
  • #810
  • Aug 25, 2017 9:20am Aug 25, 2017 9:20am
today both trade ended with profits .17 pips today
  • #811
  • Aug 26, 2017 6:58am Aug 26, 2017 6:58am
Quoting zentrader8
today both trade ended with profits .17 pips today
That would be great if you could post some weekly or monthly win/loss numbers. How many wins etc.

As I do like this strategy I can not find it profitable. Testing it I can see clearly it do not have chance in the long run:

1. TP/SL is unfavorable,

2. There is no chance to make a strategy out of 62% wins because to work it needs -15 SL factor. If you change SL the strategy is less than 50% accurate,

3. The only period it was successful is year 2016. All other years tested from 2008 to 2017 are negative. All of them.


There is no way around it. Adding second trade make you bleed slower. But still you are not earning.

If you have any cont-arguments with my findings I would be more than greateful to see it.
  • #812
  • Aug 26, 2017 8:12pm Aug 26, 2017 8:12pm
Here is the excel document from may this year until today.For the parameter, I use 10 pips SL for both trades, and for TAKE PROFIT, i use 5 pips for first trade, and 12 pips for second trade. and it still not count the commision and slippage.(I only count the pips).
Thanks, hope it can helps .
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx DATA FROM MAY-AUGUST.xlsx   15 KB | 278 downloads
  • #813
  • Aug 26, 2017 8:13pm Aug 26, 2017 8:13pm
Quoting Plainview
{quote} That would be great if you could post some weekly or monthly win/loss numbers. How many wins etc. As I do like this strategy I can not find it profitable. Testing it I can see clearly it do not have chance in the long run: 1. TP/SL is unfavorable, 2. There is no chance to make a strategy out of 62% wins because to work it needs -15 SL factor. If you change SL the strategy is less than 50% accurate, 3. The only period it was successful is year 2016. All other years tested from 2008 to 2017 are negative. All of them. There is no way around...

What kind of method did you use to backtest?
The data i get is from forward testing from may.
Notice from the end of july- early August,there is a lot of minus. The other month i think the method is doing fine.
  • #814
  • Aug 27, 2017 3:21am Aug 27, 2017 3:21am
Quoting zentrader8
{quote} What kind of method did you use to backtest? The data i get is from forward testing from may. Notice from the end of july- early August,there is a lot of minus. The other month i think the method is doing fine.
Hey,

Regarding your excel: you took 85 trades and and won 38. That alone give you 44,7% accuracy. This is not enough with SL and TP that you are using. Statistical odds are not in your favor. Also you have 2 winning months and 2 loosing ones. So you have 50% monthly period success. If may wouldn't be so good you would be loosing.

I have tested this system for last 9 years using Historical Backtested. Tick for tick every opening 5 days a week. Excluding holidays and bank holidays. I have also tried to optimize it but best results are with TP=10 and SL=15. Other decent results are with TP=15 and SL=15. But as you can see it looks like 50% accuracy system with risk-to-reward 1:1. And this is at best! I was getting 35% equity loss in about 5 months of trading. Every year.

Sorry to say, but I move along. This is waste of time.
  • #815
  • Last Post: Aug 30, 2017 7:15am Aug 30, 2017 7:15am
Quoting Plainview
{quote} Hey, Regarding your excel: you took 85 trades and and won 38. That alone give you 44,7% accuracy. This is not enough with SL and TP that you are using. Statistical odds are not in your favor. Also you have 2 winning months and 2 loosing ones. So you have 50% monthly period success. If may wouldn't be so good you would be loosing. I have tested this system for last 9 years using Historical Backtested. Tick for tick every opening 5 days a week. Excluding holidays and bank holidays. I have also tried to optimize it but best results are with...
Yesterday i run a backtest with this EA on MT4, and i try to match it with my results from May.and the results is unmatch, i think the backtest results is wrong! you can try to match the backtest result with the data i took from may.
I saw on the details and try to match it, some of the data, in my data is winning, then on the backtest result is losing, and also some of the data i lose, and it win. I think its very strange, and i think it doesnt show the real perfomance of the method.
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