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  • #281
  • Aug 17, 2017 6:20am Aug 17, 2017 6:20am
It is that exact pain which will etch the lessons into your memory for a long time.

I remember my first ever major loss. 60% capital gone in one trade. The important thing is not how much you lose. But how you learn from your mistakes and improve yourself. Money can always be earned back. It may take months or years but you will eventually earn it back. The lessons however are indefinitely invaluable. It teaches you not to make the same mistakes. It serves as a reality check. It points out your flaw in your strategy.

That being said Im glad that you are active on this forum. I believe that you (and everyone else) will develop some amazing ideas eventually. And I want to read about it on this forum.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #282
  • Aug 17, 2017 7:04am Aug 17, 2017 7:04am
Quoting Mdm92
{quote} I'm on a very small live account. The market has really been bashing me. The central bank statements are not always very easy to deipher and I want to learn to understand it for myself also. It's a learning process and I understand there's some pain in the learning, but so GLAD this thread is alive.
Welcome
Have a good read through my posts.
Seriously consider demo trading until you are making profits

Good luck
Fader123
  • #283
  • Aug 17, 2017 12:37pm Aug 17, 2017 12:37pm
@Fader123, have you ever in the past made a bad trade(s) due to over analyzing, and how did you overcome this behavior? To give you an example of what I mean by over analyzing: the other night I was reading through previous FOMC minutes releases in order to get clues about the stance the Fed will take in the most recent minutes release, and after reading through June release and identifying language that showed that the Fed was concerned about the recent downturn in inflation, I decided that the stance of the next release would be dovish which agreed with what investors were expecting and the fact that the Fed doesn't like to surprise the market, but then I psyched myself out and decided that the Fed would be more hawkish than anticipated which was not in agreement with trader sentiment and naturally an unlikely scenario.

Hmm, I need to establish a set way of making decisions on data in order to prevent overthinking things and psyching myself out. Yeah I can definitely do that. Well I just answered my own question, but I'm going to post this anyways because it might help someone else.

Thank you
-Yusuf
  • #284
  • Edited 4:15pm Aug 17, 2017 2:41pm | Edited 4:15pm
A trade has got to feel right.
I remember there was an Aussie trade (think its on here), it did not feel right, I did not lose that much one it- I think I was looking at price action too much
and I was hoping it would move, because if it did it could have been a decent trade

Whereas I should have just looked at the evidence and created a time line - and let the facts speak for themselves.

Obviously, do all the research, break down the key components and see how confident you feel about the trade
Jarratt Davis talks about confidence a lot- and it is critical
If it does not feel right - pass on it
As Gordon Gekko says "only bet on sure things"
Steve Ward has some (psychological) books that are very useful for traders

One other thing, the check should be the FOMC minutes released yesterday against July's FOMC statement

Cheers
F
  • #285
  • Aug 21, 2017 7:12pm Aug 21, 2017 7:12pm
So here's my Tidbits for the week. We have CAD retail coming out on Tuesday that might send a shock. CAD has been strong as of late so the highest potential is a far off negative reading to have the most impact. A slightly or even great number to the positive won't do much IMO because everyone is already high on the CAD. As well if the reading is only slightly worse the sentiment will be that CAD can absorb the difference and prod along. Draghi speaks on Wednesday, he always has potential to say something that will move the Euro but I doubt it with his scheduled speech at Jackson Hole for Friday 2 days away. I don't see him saying anything meaningful. Crude inventories also comes out and again unless the number is crazy off as well or Oil making a run along with the number. I don't see much of an impact coming from it either. The focus of the week for me fundamentally will be on the verbiage that comes out of the Jackson Hole meeting and the back and forth expected from Trump and Kim with the ten day joint military exercise starting today. If Kim and Trump mix words and tensions rise, expect a good drop in UJ, rise in EU and USDCHF. I believe the EURO will be the strongest currency this week. We'll see, I try to adjust my views as the days and information changes. As the market continually evolves fluctuating supply/demand and information so must we as traders. Unless you plan to trade like Warren Buffet and hold for more than a Decade....

Just my thoughts. Take what you can and give nothing back
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #286
  • Aug 21, 2017 8:15pm Aug 21, 2017 8:15pm
I have quite the same view regarding the military exercise. There is definite potential for things to escalate. Its a high probability trade. I view it as a short term event thou.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #287
  • Aug 22, 2017 6:46am Aug 22, 2017 6:46am
Greetings chaps.
We just have to wait for the right opportunities to come along
If we are going to trade news it's got to be substantial e.g. makes headlines.
Keep the news on just in case there is some breaking news that dilutes or reverses the trade

At the moment I am out and about but will be listening to what Draghi has to say and will he preparing for September's cash rate statements
  • #288
  • Aug 22, 2017 2:19pm Aug 22, 2017 2:19pm
Having a think, in hindsight should really have thought about shorting the pound after yesterday's rally.
The banks were looking at the likely response from the EU.
Sentiment on the pound is still poorish
GDP figures on Thursday. These will be important. But the estimate seems ok
I think that there is another round of Brexit talks next week.
  • #289
  • Aug 25, 2017 5:51am Aug 25, 2017 5:51am
Quoting Fader123
Greetings chaps. We just have to wait for the right opportunities to come along If we are going to trade news it's got to be substantial e.g. makes headlines. Keep the news on just in case there is some breaking news that dilutes or reverses the trade At the moment I am out and about but will be listening to what Draghi has to say and will he preparing for September's cash rate statements
I am not a fundamentals person but its useful all the same knowing this stuff....and I am hopeless as a fundamentals person. Am thus following....usually tend to keep an eye out for your daily overview. Thanks.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #290
  • Aug 25, 2017 6:14am Aug 25, 2017 6:14am
Hey everyone the big dogs are speaking today at Jackson Hole. Draghi and Yellen aren't scheduled to say anything important. So look to the verbiage for anything surprising make a bigger impact than normal. The EURO is still trading strong ahead of Draghi's speech. I can't see him saying anything that would weaken the EURO but rather give it another boost.
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #291
  • Aug 25, 2017 6:19am Aug 25, 2017 6:19am
Quoting traider
{quote} I am not a fundamentals person but its useful all the same knowing this stuff....and I am hopeless as a fundamentals person. Am thus following....usually tend to keep an eye out for your daily overview. Thanks.
Hey traider, welcome to the thread. If you're absolutely new to the fundamentals, I would suggest not trying to follow and learn from everything and every central bank. Rather start with one central bank like the JPY, EURO, CAD or USD. Follow it solely and see how it reacts to certain news. How its central bank operates and uses QE, Rate changes to try to influence its currency. They're all similar in the way they handle their countries currency. Get one down and the rest will be but a short learning curve to get under your belt.
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #292
  • Aug 25, 2017 6:49am Aug 25, 2017 6:49am
Glad you like th thread
Anyway currently basking in some nice weather
  • #293
  • Aug 25, 2017 2:23pm Aug 25, 2017 2:23pm
Quoting Bsmile44
Hey everyone the big dogs are speaking today at Jackson Hole. Draghi and Yellen aren't scheduled to say anything important. So look to the verbiage for anything surprising make a bigger impact than normal. The EURO is still trading strong ahead of Draghi's speech. I can't see him saying anything that would weaken the EURO but rather give it another boost.
Nice post Bsmile44.
Hope you got some pips off it
What made you take that view on the Euro
  • #294
  • Aug 25, 2017 4:46pm Aug 25, 2017 4:46pm
Random thought: Did Gary Cohn just solidify his case for the Fed Chair today? This has become a more likely scenario given the fact that Yellen defended the current financial regulations in place that Trump has stated that he would repeal. There have been rumours that Cohn had apparently came pretty close to resigning from his position with Trump but decided not to possibly because Trump might have offered him the Fed chair. Cohn's plan to resign from the Trump administration could just be his way of leveraging his candidacy for the Fed chair that will be up for grabs soon. Would be a perfect timing for Cohn given the austerity surrounding the Trump administration, and Yellen's comments today probably just strengthen his chances further.
  • #295
  • Aug 25, 2017 5:02pm Aug 25, 2017 5:02pm
Thinking about it.
Hurricane Harvey made the Euro a safe haven.
The market was expecting more from Yellen and sold off.
(Sell the news)
Draghi was expected to try and rein in the Euro, following 'over shooting' comments last wek
Perhaps he felt by that this was not the forum to make those comments bearing in mind the subject matter
Either that or he feels that the Euro can now handle a higher Euro.
Personally I think it's the former. One to note for September
It makes me think why were those comments made last week?
Really its game over for a while on the dollar. And who knows when this rally will end following Draghi speech.
Only thing is some of the banks are starting to get cold feet over this move.
To be honest I haven't treat gone through all of the ECB speeches recently.
Still sort of on holiday mode.
  • #296
  • Aug 25, 2017 7:27pm Aug 25, 2017 7:27pm
On Aug 18th 2017 I shorted the USDCAD based on US dollar weakness and Canadian dollar strength. The USD was weak because the uncertainty brought about by the US North Korea conflict.This has continued although weakened somewhat by Friday, the day I took the trade.

CAD has followed an ongoing downtrend based on the hawkish comments made the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz during the last rate hike. Also, the Canadian CPI came out on Friday morning as expected. This inferred more rate hikes and one possibly as early as October.

I was in and out quickly as I'm "on holiday". Again, I could have let the trade go for at least another 2 hours. This would have resulted in another 40 pips in the USDCAD.


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  • #297
  • Aug 25, 2017 8:49pm Aug 25, 2017 8:49pm
N.K Fires missiles again
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08...sea-japan.html

"Isolated attack" But at a time of security concern
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-be...source=twitter

Not really global news but i feel it has it's concequence
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/25/u...ne-harvey.html

Bad for the usd, but globally?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...itter-politics


Looks like these headlines are pointing to risk-averse trading come monday!
Overall, I feel that a good short-term bet next week is to long gold, jpy and chf. And possibly short the usd.

One thing i noticed recently is that the impact of geo-political events tend to be short-lived. And quickly reversed after a few days. Does this mean that it is wise for a long-term trader to buy the dips? Idk. But I am certainly getting in quick trades in there!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #298
  • Aug 25, 2017 11:22pm Aug 25, 2017 11:22pm
Draghi announcing plans for tapering, Emmanuel winning the French election, and GDP + strong business data in the Eurozone. And then you have an equal and opposite reaction happening in the US with a dovish Fed, surprisingly consistent political turmoil coming from the Trump administration, and a slow down in inflation that has contributed to Euro appreciating 15% against the dollar this year with no signs of letting off.

So the Euro should continue to accelerate...and here lies the problem. The ECB has a goal of near 2% inflation which it is no where near. And now you have the Euro's rapid appreciation adding more deflationary pressure on already depressed prices. This is a conflict of interest for the ECB. If things continue their current trends in the US and Europe, I could definitely see Draghi taking more a dovish stance at his next press release in early September.

I personally think its kind of funny, at the beginning of the year Draghi was complaining that the dollar was overvalued and now look whats happening. Perfect example of "be careful what you wish for because you might just get it!"
  • #299
  • Aug 26, 2017 2:56am Aug 26, 2017 2:56am
Quoting synicz
N.K Fires missiles again http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08...sea-japan.html "Isolated attack" But at a time of security concern http://www.reuters.com/article/us-be...source=twitter Not really global news but i feel it has it's concequence https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/25/u...ne-harvey.html Bad for the usd, but globally? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...itter-politics...
Depends what the impact is
I try to focus on the headlines on Bloomberg and Reuters as this is typically what traders will be looking at
A news story say 1-2 sessions.
Major new news by a head of state could be 5 days could be a few months

At the moment I would not be buying the dips on UJ mainly due to what Trump might say or do.
Big week next week. Traders will be focussing on these figures
Not sure if you read about the Phillips curve being a completely unreliable method of raising inflation
  • #300
  • Aug 26, 2017 2:58am Aug 26, 2017 2:58am
Quoting jchiogna1
On Aug 18th 2017 I shorted the USDCAD based on US dollar weakness and Canadian dollar strength. The USD was weak because the uncertainty brought about by the US North Korea conflict.This has continued although weakened somewhat by Friday, the day I took the trade. CAD has followed an ongoing downtrend based on the hawkish comments made the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz during the last rate hike. Also, the Canadian CPI came out on Friday morning as expected....
Well done you are getting there.
Cad GDP figures due next week plus NFP etc..
One for next week
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