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  • #261
  • Aug 14, 2017 5:45pm Aug 14, 2017 5:45pm
Quoting synicz
{quote} Im quite curious, how did you trade the eu elections? The spread were a real turn-off for me.
I didn't trade the event actually. I traded into it.. and couple of trades sometime after. Yeah, I traded around it.

@Fader123 I think faded the spike off the event, if I remember right.
  • #262
  • Edited 6:02pm Aug 14, 2017 5:50pm | Edited 6:02pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} I didn't trade the event actually. I traded into it.. and couple of trades sometime after. Yeah, I traded around it. @Fader123 I think faded the spike off the event, if I remember right.
Yep sold the life out of it (sell the news), shortly after Macron was announced the winner
  • #263
  • Aug 15, 2017 9:41am Aug 15, 2017 9:41am
I am trying to clarify what impact on currency will have ending of quantitative easing.

- It should raise a currency because it will be less money available.
- It should lower GDP.
- It should lower inflation (because imported goods will be cheaper).
- It lowers chances for increase of interest rates.

Is this correct?
  • #264
  • Aug 15, 2017 11:10am Aug 15, 2017 11:10am
Quoting zosoforever
I am trying to clarify what impact on currency will have ending of quantitative easing. - It should raise a currency because it will be less money available. - It should lower GDP. - It should lower inflation (because imported goods will be cheaper). - It lowers chances for increase of interest rates. Is this correct?
1. Based on my understanding, tapering of qe should cause a currency to appreciate due to a few functions. One is as you mentioned, the cb will sell back assets (usually but not always, bonds) back into the markets, albeit it will be a long slow process this way. The other fuction is investors expectations that the cb are becoming hawkish. Thus driving up the currency due to speculation.

2. If you see it as less money for people to spend, thus reducing spendings and affecting gdp as a result. You are not wrong. But the impact on gdp through this mechanism shouldnt be much as cb will take care not to taper too aggressively. The last thing they want is to shock the markets.

3. Again, theoretically, it should have deflationary effect. However, in real life, the impact should not be drastic.

4. Cbs are highly unlikely to pursue both interest rate hikes and qe together. This might cause too much of an impact on the markets. I wont say lower chances. For lack of a better word, more like delay interest rate hike decision whilst qe tapering are underway. Of course if qe tapering is all that is needed to stabilise the economy and inflation. Cbs wont hike interest rate.

What i have mentioned are more of what we expect to see in macro economic theory. However, the idea and implementation of qe especially at such a large scale is fairly new (past 1-2 decade or so). And we have limited cases to study about their impact on the finacial markets. So i would take my own words with a pinch of salt. What I said might not be what you get.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #265
  • Aug 15, 2017 11:13am Aug 15, 2017 11:13am
On a side note, how did your trades/bets with uk and us data go? Short Gbpusd would have been such a good trade today.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #266
  • Aug 15, 2017 6:34pm Aug 15, 2017 6:34pm
I took the following GBPUSD trade base on the GBP CPI trade. It was early for me and I had just driven 13 hrs nonstop. Not a good time to trade. I didn't do much prep for this one. If I had spent more time researching in advance I would have realized that even a small difference between the expected and actual number had the potential to move the GBPUSD substantially, especially to the downside. This is because such a discrepancy to the down side could cause the BOE to pause before issuing another rate hike. I thought I had ample reasons for cutting the trade short, the number one being it was only a slight discrepancy.

I could have at least moved the stop closer to break even and then let the trade run. This quick exit again is the result of poor preparation(somewhat understandable) and fear of losing the money that what was already on the table. I also didn't have the time to practice the psychology exercises (again part of preparation). Here are some simple currency trading tips: learn from my mistakes and do the preparation needed, even if you're tired.

Inserted Video
  • #267
  • Aug 15, 2017 7:10pm Aug 15, 2017 7:10pm
Quoting jchiogna1
I took the following GBPUSD trade base on the GBP CPI trade. It was early for me and I had just driven 13 hrs nonstop. Not a good time to trade. I didn't do much prep for this one. If I had spent more time researching in advance I would have realized that even a small difference between the expected and actual number had the potential to move the GBPUSD substantially, especially to the downside. This is because such a discrepancy to the down side could cause the BOE to pause before issuing another rate hike. I thought I had ample reasons for cutting...

IMO, nothing wrong with banking in those pips. Moving SL to BE is a matter of personal risk tolerance. Personally, I will only move my stop to BE after a substantial move in my direction (>150-200pips?).
Letting your trade run however, is a much more grey area. We will never know for exactly (or even an approximation) how far prices will go.
There are various ways to determine when to exit a trade, each with their own pros and cons. You just got to trust your strategy man.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #268
  • Aug 15, 2017 9:22pm Aug 15, 2017 9:22pm
Thanks
  • #269
  • Aug 15, 2017 9:44pm Aug 15, 2017 9:44pm
Quoting Mdm92
Not a very good day today. I think I focused a bit too much on the sentimental analysis and got distracted. Bought the USDJPY on the back on Risk On sentiment and reduced tensions in N.Korea but there was very little movement today and took a big loss. Made some profit USDCAD on Risk on sentiment and retracement in crude made some money but again no real momentum on the pair. Been looking at the EUR lately and looks like traders are increasing longs on the currency (COT report) Hope everyone had a pipfilled day today.
Not easy for sure.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #270
  • Aug 16, 2017 1:06am Aug 16, 2017 1:06am
I am anticipating the Fed Minutes release tomorrow will be more hawkish than expected. Investors have been worried about the recent downturn in inflation, but it is important to remember that the Fed conducts policy based on the long and medium terms, and will not change its course of policy because of short term weakness. Recent FOMC speeches and previous Minutes releases show that the Fed is still expecting inflation to reach its 2% goal in the medium term. The June CPI report showed that there was a decline in wireless phone plans and airline fares, and the Fed will likely use that as an excuse for recent downturn in inflation. More so, the Fed will likely cite that the low rate of unemployment will likely lead to inflation in the near term.
  • #271
  • Aug 16, 2017 1:11am Aug 16, 2017 1:11am
Quoting jchiogna1
I took the following GBPUSD trade base on the GBP CPI trade. It was early for me and I had just driven 13 hrs nonstop. Not a good time to trade. I didn't do much prep for this one. If I had spent more time researching in advance I would have realized that even a small difference between the expected and actual number had the potential to move the GBPUSD substantially, especially to the downside. This is because such a discrepancy to the down side could cause the BOE to pause before issuing another rate hike. I thought I had ample reasons for cutting...
You can always use some trailing stop. I usually let the trade run, and don't use TP levels. Sometimes you make very nice trades. But there is two problem (at least I see two problems).
1. GBP pairs like to begin with large slippage, then in the next tick jump back before continue in the original direction, so the first SL have to be far enough from the entry price.
2. After the "afterslippage" backjump you can use a closer trailing SL, but if that is too close your trade will stopped to early, if to large you will lose most part of your profit if the price turnes.
To estimate this SL levels you have to examine the earlier news behaviours, and you have to forget the candle charts for this, because the candles hide the frequency of the movement. But on tickchars you will see how the price fluctuates during the move.
Only my scepticism keep me from being an atheist. Be sceptic ever.
  • #272
  • Aug 16, 2017 7:36am Aug 16, 2017 7:36am
I see we did not have bad wage data today on the GBP and AUD.

AUD wage figure came in as expected I didn't see any reason for the market to interpret that as bullish. Except that last quarter's figure was revised up .1 percent (is that enough reason for the rally??).

GBP on the other hand was a different case. Great jobs data all round. And wage figure beat expectation. I thought a miss would be good for trading... but let's see how it goes.

Maybe a really dovish FOMC minutes might see cable break above 1.29
  • #273
  • Aug 16, 2017 7:44am Aug 16, 2017 7:44am
Well for gbp, one set of data does not make a trend. But it is definitely what boe wants. We should probably wait for another 1-2months worth of earnings data.

I see a mini rally after disappointing housing data. I must say, based on the broader economic data (gdp, inflation, earnings), I really cant see how usd can rally.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #274
  • Edited 9:31am Aug 16, 2017 8:21am | Edited 9:31am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
I see we did not have bad wage data today on the GBP and AUD. AUD wage figure came in as expected I didn't see any reason for the market to interpret that as bullish. Except that last quarter's figure was revised up .1 percent (is that enough reason for the rally??). GBP on the other hand was a different case. Great jobs data all round. And wage figure beat expectation. I thought a miss would be good for trading... but let's see how it goes. Maybe a really dovish FOMC minutes might see cable break above 1.29

Think it's a case of reviewing what Carney is looking at.

If memory serves me;

Wage inflation. At the moment in real terms (inflation adjusted) it has dropped by .5%. But moved up from last month. Nonetheless, this is a move in the right direction.

Investment: A lot of this is really due to issues with Brexit

I will have a read again on Carneys recent statements
The main issue as I recall is over the state of the UK economy and in particular Brexit. Recent rhetoric from the EU has not been that promising

We have GDP, CPI and more wage inflation figures due before the next MPC meeting, so this will help

The Fed are really ahead of the curve, the BOE less so.
  • #275
  • Aug 16, 2017 9:16am Aug 16, 2017 9:16am
I have to admit though for such an important indicator (wage inflation) Carney mentioned it enough - it does not really move enough in my opinion, especially when you bear in mind how the market treats wage numbers when the NFP comes out
  • #276
  • Aug 16, 2017 10:01am Aug 16, 2017 10:01am
Quoting Fader123
I have to admit though for such an important indicator (wage inflation) Carney mentioned it enough - it does not really move enough in my opinion, especially when you bear in mind how the market treats wage numbers when the NFP comes out
My thoughts exactly!

Just as you and @Synicz have said, maybe we need to see a trend here first.

I should be alert to Brexit news as well.

Thanks guys
  • #277
  • Aug 16, 2017 10:07am Aug 16, 2017 10:07am
Talking about brexit, what are your views on the impact it has on the uk economy and gbp? Past, present and future.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #278
  • Aug 16, 2017 12:39pm Aug 16, 2017 12:39pm
What is about FOMC??
  • #279
  • Edited 1:29pm Aug 16, 2017 1:14pm | Edited 1:29pm
Broadly the market expecting a more dovish FOMC due to inflation.
You can trade into the event
To be honest I prefer to trade larger events - as there are more pips to be made
But it is definitely a way to get some pips
Looking ahead inflation has picked up (slightly) although core inflation has remained static
I think the US economy is doing well. As the dollar has been under pressure for so long I would expect to see a rise in inflation
It takes around 6-9 months for the impact on a lower dollar to filter through to inflation
  • #280
  • Aug 17, 2017 4:57am Aug 17, 2017 4:57am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Mdm92 I hope that you are demo trading at the moment.
I'm on a very small live account. The market has really been bashing me. The central bank statements are not always very easy to deipher and I want to learn to understand it for myself also.

It's a learning process and I understand there's some pain in the learning, but so GLAD this thread is alive.
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