are some news releases more predictable than others? | Forex Factory

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are some news releases more predictable than others?

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 15, 2017 5:46am Aug 15, 2017 5:46am
Hi
Are there any news releases that are easier to trade than others? If so can anyone share some insight how to trade the easy ones? (if they usually move more than 20 pips)
I am into USD releases mostly but I am open for other currencies as well.
Thanks.
  • #2
  • Sep 1, 2017 2:49am Sep 1, 2017 2:49am
Maybe experience traders may know this! Yes I have 5 years trading experience but I do news trading only for recent 2 years! But I see, NFP news is interesting! Like, market moves in one direction during NFP (maximum time). So, I use pending order strategy here!
  • #3
  • Sep 1, 2017 3:00am Sep 1, 2017 3:00am
trading the news is not advisable in the forex market, it may be a good move in the stock market, but you will go "BROKE" doing that in the stock market.
  • #4
  • Sep 1, 2017 5:22pm Sep 1, 2017 5:22pm
trading news is the only way to make money in forex. if you think im wrong tell me why so many brokers have connection issues and widen spreads during news events? and i know for a fact its not market conditions and lack of liquidity because the brokers i use dont have any spread widening or connection issues. if someone is telling you you shouldnt do this in trading or that especially brokers ie news trading. how they say tick volume is useless. you can bet your ass its the most useful thing in trading

SG
the more you know the less you need.
  • #5
  • Sep 1, 2017 9:13pm Sep 1, 2017 9:13pm
No
  • #6
  • Sep 2, 2017 12:37am Sep 2, 2017 12:37am
The only unpredictable news for me is FOMC and NFP because they can break both support and resistance during spike ...
Other news arent that volatile and usually tend to go in one direction.
Life Is Good
  • #7
  • Sep 2, 2017 5:38am Sep 2, 2017 5:38am
The biggest problem with news trading for average lads like us, is that our orders are not given priority to the billion dollar forces that are fighting within a small amount of time. If you have an order open, and a stoploss, in a very volatile environment, that stoploss will trigger late or further away from the defined price due to the sudden lack of liquidity. Similarly, just because you have a pending order, like a buy stop ready, doesn't mean the trade will be opened at that price, due to liquidity, so indeed a pending order may trigger, but it will be like late, or at a different price that is in the unfavorable direction. Which ultimately costs you profit, and in whipsaws will cause massive losses. If my orders were given priority, then News Trading would be the way to go, but due the amount of money and technology that goes into financial institutions that make sure that trades are completed with the lowest latency, it is very unlikely that anytime soon the problem of slower latencies is going to be solved for us retail traders.
HMSR
  • #8
  • Sep 3, 2017 2:38pm Sep 3, 2017 2:38pm
Quoting SamGold
trading news is the only way to make money in forex. if you think im wrong tell me why so many brokers have connection issues and widen spreads during news events? and i know for a fact its not market conditions and lack of liquidity because the brokers i use dont have any spread widening or connection issues. if someone is telling you you shouldnt do this in trading or that especially brokers ie news trading. how they say tick volume is useless. you can bet your ass its the most useful thing in trading SG
which brokers do you use ? and care to say more about volume please
  • #9
  • Sep 5, 2017 6:39am Sep 5, 2017 6:39am
In order of predictability...
QE (anywhere), NFPs (US), interest rate announcements, interest rate votes in joint place with employment stats (other countries), the rest of them.

But this is after the dust has settled. Stops can be taken out above or below on the back of bullish or bearish news. The movement immediately following big news releases have zero correlation to fundamental impact of the news - the fundamental impact follows in the space of hours, sometimes days.

Fundamentals eventually rule the roost but in the short term, it's always about the shakedown.

As for trading news releases, it's all about volatility and execution rates; it's the same process as day to day, just speeded up. The cost you pay for that excitement is slippage, so you need to wind down the leverage.
  • #10
  • Sep 5, 2017 7:05pm Sep 5, 2017 7:05pm
Quoting waverhythm
Hi Are there any news releases that are easier to trade than others? If so can anyone share some insight how to trade the easy ones? (if they usually move more than 20 pips) I am into USD releases mostly but I am open for other currencies as well. Thanks.
no
  • #11
  • Sep 6, 2017 12:15am Sep 6, 2017 12:15am
Quoting waverhythm
Hi Are there any news releases that are easier to trade than others? If so can anyone share some insight how to trade the easy ones? (if they usually move more than 20 pips) I am into USD releases mostly but I am open for other currencies as well. Thanks.

I looked at news trading for a long time, never found a way to trade it, can't say it is impossible of course.

Unless you have some inside knowledge of what the particular news event is going to be, I cannot see how you can trade it in the short term, if an event is big enough to start a significant new market direction then maybe you can ride the wave, but that is not really trading the news, more the technical result of the news.
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #12
  • Sep 6, 2017 12:21am Sep 6, 2017 12:21am
Quoting SamGold
trading news is the only way to make money in forex. if you think im wrong tell me why so many brokers have connection issues and widen spreads during news events? and i know for a fact its not market conditions and lack of liquidity because the brokers i use dont have any spread widening or connection issues. if someone is telling you you shouldnt do this in trading or that especially brokers ie news trading. how they say tick volume is useless. you can bet your ass its the most useful thing in trading SG
Sorry Sam just don't agree. Spreads widen because of lack of liquidity, there is lack of liquidity around significant news events because market participants are sitting on their hands, some brokers have access to more liquidity than others that is probably all you are seeing, and even if some brokers widen spreads to protect themselves that does not imply you can profit from brokers who do not do the same.
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #13
  • Sep 6, 2017 3:08am Sep 6, 2017 3:08am
Quoting GuyBaker
{quote} Sorry Sam just don't agree. Spreads widen because of lack of liquidity, there is lack of liquidity around significant news events because market participants are sitting on their hands, some brokers have access to more liquidity than others that is probably all you are seeing, and even if some brokers widen spreads to protect themselves that does not imply you can profit from brokers who do not do the same.
is that what they tell you

SG
the more you know the less you need.
  • #14
  • Sep 6, 2017 3:09am Sep 6, 2017 3:09am
Quoting SamGold
{quote} is that what they tell you SG
No it is what i realised after ten years in the game
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #15
  • Sep 6, 2017 3:11am Sep 6, 2017 3:11am
why would people be sitting on there hands when they know the market is about to make a huge move. you have it all backwards.

SG
the more you know the less you need.
  • #16
  • Sep 6, 2017 3:16am Sep 6, 2017 3:16am
Quoting cowcool
The only unpredictable news for me is FOMC and NFP because they can break both support and resistance during spike ... Other news arent that volatile and usually tend to go in one direction.
Yes, most of the time markets moves in one specific direction (During FPMC & NFP)! By the way, have any especial strategy for trading FOMC & NFP?
  • #17
  • Sep 7, 2017 1:46am Sep 7, 2017 1:46am
Quoting SamGold
why would people be sitting on there hands when they know the market is about to make a huge move. you have it all backwards. SG

Because the direction it will move in the short term is random, a coin toss, unless you have inside information, which I am guessing you do not.
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #18
  • Edited 8:10am Sep 7, 2017 7:53am | Edited 8:10am
Thanks for all your replies guys.

SamGold, if it's true, how do you know it works that way?

The way I see it is like this: there are the biggest players (central banks), middle players (smaller banks and rich people), and retail traders. let's not forget companies and turists.
anyway. i read somewhere that those who moves the market are the biggest players. when they make a transaction they dont care about making profits. the reason they make a transaction is to stabilize the country's economy. before they make a transaction there is not much liquidity and also for that reason the middle players are waiting for the release (meaning the middle players have not put any money in the market either). the retail traders cant move it much maybe not even one pip because as you all know they have too little money compared to the bigger players.
That's only my understanding. If I am wrong correct me.
  • #19
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:07am Sep 7, 2017 8:07am
Quoting GuyBaker
{quote} Sorry Sam just don't agree. Spreads widen because of lack of liquidity, there is lack of liquidity around significant news events because market participants are sitting on their hands, some brokers have access to more liquidity than others that is probably all you are seeing, and even if some brokers widen spreads to protect themselves that does not imply you can profit from brokers who do not do the same.

i dont agree with your statement.

and i agree what Samgold said ..


Quoting SamGold
{quote} is that what they tell you SG
dont u know what the "dark side" of this enviroment...

wolf eating the sheep

widen spread and liquidity is a part of strategies from "that" side to protect their RISK...
Made in Malaysia <3
  • #20
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:14am Sep 7, 2017 8:14am
I firmly believe that news trading is predictable only if you have some inside information. In a standard scenario, it is just pure gambling. That is why I always try to place my positions in a such way so they won’t be affected by news releases.
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