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  • #241
  • Aug 13, 2017 6:47pm Aug 13, 2017 6:47pm
Quoting Fader123
Some questions; Who here Reads central bank statements & member speeches Knows which CB members are doves/neutral/hawks Knows what figures central banks are most concerned with Knows the position of each major country in relation to the economic cycle
Yea our CB isn't too worried about the recently week Inflation data as it hasn't really budged the year over year figure much. As I am not a full Fundamental trade, I use them to compliment my technical's. I don't keep tabs on all the CB members stances. Just the big wigs and main members of their respective CB. I try to catch and be online for any big statements or meetings though of the CB's and I keep tabs on where each country is.

What do you do?

Also if you have a good online source better than http://www.centralbanknews.info/
I'd be grateful if you would share it. That site is informative but a tedious read at times.
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #242
  • Aug 13, 2017 7:29pm Aug 13, 2017 7:29pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Looking at the pound the main one is CPI on Tuesday Earnings are going to be really important on Weds Carney has referred to wage inflation a lot in his latest speeches/MPC meeting Also retail sales will be looked at Geopolitically the UK government really needs to get its act together over Brexit I am not holding out too much hope I'm afraid, although there were some reports on Bloomberg and Reuters today Last week the market has turned negative on the pound following the BOE statement Let's see what the estimates are. Employment figures...
Brexit was inevitable. The global liquidity circuit is still British imperial with Sterling and the Greenback of any consequence. We could not have this global centre attached to Mainland Europe. Not yet anyway.

Otherwise...keep up this sterling effort on fundamentals. I trade price exclusively but I love it!!
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #243
  • Edited 3:33am Aug 14, 2017 3:02am | Edited 3:33am
Quoting traider
{quote} Brexit was inevitable. The global liquidity circuit is still British imperial with Sterling and the Greenback of any consequence. We could not have this global centre attached to Mainland Europe. Not yet anyway. Otherwise...keep up this sterling effort on fundamentals. I trade price exclusively but I love it!!
Thanks traider

having a good grip on fundamentals is great, because you will know when price hits support or resistance if it is likely to go through it or is price just going there to get some orders

Only problem is that it requires a bit of work, and you have to compare it against other currencies
Ideally you are looking for an overbought pair - then a weakening of figures/sentiment for the first currency and a strengthening in figures/sentiment on the second.

Meant to be on holiday -wife moaning at me.
Later chaps
  • #244
  • Edited 3:49am Aug 14, 2017 3:30am | Edited 3:49am
Quoting Bsmile44
{quote} Yea our CB isn't too worried about the recently week Inflation data as it hasn't really budged the year over year figure much. As I am not a full Fundamental trade, I use them to compliment my technical's. I don't keep tabs on all the CB members stances. Just the big wigs and main members of their respective CB. I try to catch and be online for any big statements or meetings though of the CB's and I keep tabs on where each country is. What do you do? Also if you have a good online source better than http://www.centralbanknews.info/...
Bsmille

I realise that this might be a bit heavy.

Below is pretty much everything I do;

What is the view of the banks (go to EXFnews) - try to get a consensus
Read all of the central bank speeches/statements- what are they looking at, and what are their forecasts, and views on interest rates over the short and medium term
On the FF calendar, filter over the last 6 weeks on each major currency - red/orange impact only (this is what I use)
look for trends over the last few months - and current values
how is CPI doing, employment and especially note what figures each central bank views as important
what are the leading indicators stating (job adverts
what else affects currencies (iron ore, crude oil, china, other countries etc..)
this will give you a good idea on the strength of each currency - then monitor it and update your notes, every time we have a new event (eg (CPI figures)
what risk events (CPI ...) are coming up- have traders under/overestimated figures
What central bankers are due to speak - what are traders expecting, what are they likely to say - what will be the impact, are the dovish or hawish- In light of recent figures are they likely to change their view
Are there any major geopolitical events coming up- what are politicians likely to say (heads of state)- what will be the impact
Where are the major support and resistance and pivot levels

And have a news feed on!
  • #245
  • Aug 14, 2017 3:54am Aug 14, 2017 3:54am
I highly agree with the support and resistence phrase. Often times, understanding fundamentals will allow me to trade a breakout/fade a support/resistence level with higher probability. Its almost as though you know which way prices are going to break!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #246
  • Edited 5:19am Aug 14, 2017 5:00am | Edited 5:19am
By the sea at moment and it really makes me realise that there is more to life than starting at a screen
  • #247
  • Aug 14, 2017 5:55am Aug 14, 2017 5:55am
Hi FADER123, i enjoy a lot Reading your posts and to me it makes a lot of sense the way you approach the markets... Do you also take in consideration markets relationships btw commodities, stocks, bonds, and currencies ?
Thanks for keeping this threath alive...
  • #248
  • Aug 14, 2017 9:34am Aug 14, 2017 9:34am
Quoting Fader123
Some questions; Who here Reads central bank statements & member speeches Knows which CB members are doves/neutral/hawks Knows what figures central banks are most concerned with Knows the position of each major country in relation to the economic cycle

Thanks fader, can you get us some of the links to best observing sites for those themes???
  • #249
  • Aug 14, 2017 2:03pm Aug 14, 2017 2:03pm
Hello all traders.. i want to learn basics of news trading plz seniours guide me..
  • #250
  • Aug 14, 2017 2:51pm Aug 14, 2017 2:51pm
Not a very good day today. I think I focused a bit too much on the sentimental analysis and got distracted.

Bought the USDJPY on the back on Risk On sentiment and reduced tensions in N.Korea but there was very little movement today and took a big loss.

Made some profit USDCAD on Risk on sentiment and retracement in crude made some money but again no real momentum on the pair.

Been looking at the EUR lately and looks like traders are increasing longs on the currency (COT report)

Hope everyone had a pipfilled day today.
  • #251
  • Aug 14, 2017 3:30pm Aug 14, 2017 3:30pm
Quoting synicz
...Share your thoughts with us.
My very simple short-medium term snapshot of the USD


Central bank
1. In the middle of a tightening cycle
2. Expected to announce reduction of balance sheet in September and hike in December.
3. Market pricing for number and duration of hikes reduced even further in the past week due to bad data majorly.
4. Dovish/less hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers the past week.

Data
1. Rebound in employment figures and decent uptick in wage inflation last month
2. Underwhelming CPI prints for last month add to reduction in market pricing of amount and duration of hikes.

Geopolitical
1. Still no reason to be confident in Trump's ability to push through policy reforms. Unwinding of the early year Trump trade continues,
2. Trump - N. Korea war rhetoric weighed heavily on sentiment the past week.

Summary
I am largely bearish the USD short-medium term until there is a decent rebound in Inflation figures and/or if the ECB disappoints greatly. I could be looking at retail sales and any geopolitical headlines or surprises from the FOMC minutes for trade catalyst.
  • #252
  • Aug 14, 2017 3:32pm Aug 14, 2017 3:32pm
Quoting Mdm92
Not a very good day today. I think I focused a bit too much on the sentimental analysis and got distracted. Bought the USDJPY on the back on Risk On sentiment and reduced tensions in N.Korea but there was very little movement today and took a big loss. Made some profit USDCAD on Risk on sentiment and retracement in crude made some money but again no real momentum on the pair. Been looking at the EUR lately and looks like traders are increasing longs on the currency (COT report) Hope everyone had a pipfilled day today.
Mdm92 I hope that you are demo trading at the moment.
  • #253
  • Aug 14, 2017 3:58pm Aug 14, 2017 3:58pm
Quoting Fader123
Some questions; Who here Reads central bank statements & member speeches Knows which CB members are doves/neutral/hawks Knows what figures central banks are most concerned with Knows the position of each major country in relation to the economic cycle
First, I must admit that I'm a much more lazy researcher and a huge work in progress. But I try to incorporate some of this steps you outlined for the simple fact that I've seen that they are very important.

Majorly, I rely on the central bank sections of a few sites (Forexlive, Reuters, CNBC and Econotimes) to provide me with event by event breakdown of statements and speeches. I still find it hard to read through entirely and analyze each individual statement and speech.

Doves and Hawks? Reuters' page -http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx...4EG/index.html- on the FOMC members helps me with that.

Huge work in progress!!
  • #254
  • Aug 14, 2017 4:10pm Aug 14, 2017 4:10pm
I'm looking at the RBA and FOMC minutes and I'm thinking.. how much effect can we expect them to have in light of CB rhetoric the past week.

For e.g
The RBA speeches where dovish (not hawkish) last week. So what if the minutes comes out inline with that tone? No surprise.
But what if there is a divergence in the minutes? What then?
  • #255
  • Aug 14, 2017 4:10pm Aug 14, 2017 4:10pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} First, I must admit that I'm a much more lazy researcher and a huge work in progress. But I try to incorporate some of this steps you outlined for the simple fact that I've seen that they are very important. Majorly, I rely on the central bank sections of a few sites (Forexlive, Reuters, CNBC and Econotimes) to provide me with event by event breakdown of statements and speeches. I still find it hard to read through entirely and analyze each individual statement and speech. Doves and Hawks? Reuters' page -http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx...4EG/index.html-...
You are really making it 4rXal-ghul
I know that you did well on the EU elections
How are things going now
  • #256
  • Aug 14, 2017 4:34pm Aug 14, 2017 4:34pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} You are really making it 4rXal-ghul I know that you did well on the EU elections How are things going now
Oh, I wish we can have major elections coming up every other month! Great for trading I tell ya!

Thanks Fader. I've seen huge improvements in my approach to trading since joining this community. It has certainly helped my confidence and provided a compass/blueprint for me to work with. I know there are lot of things which I'm not doing now which I need to start doing. But my ultimate aim is to make things more simpler and effective for my self.

Still got a bit of time.

Big big things ahead!! I'm sure of that.

I see you are enjoying your holidays!.. beautiful beaches and all. I'm a bit envious now.
  • #257
  • Edited 5:23pm Aug 14, 2017 4:59pm | Edited 5:23pm
Quoting Mdm92
Not a very good day today. I think I focused a bit too much on the sentimental analysis and got distracted. Bought the USDJPY on the back on Risk On sentiment and reduced tensions in N.Korea but there was very little movement today and took a big loss. Made some profit USDCAD on Risk on sentiment and retracement in crude made some money but again no real momentum on the pair. Been looking at the EUR lately and looks like traders are increasing longs on the currency (COT report) Hope everyone had a pipfilled day today.
Hi

A couple of pointers;

a) Demo trade until you make profits for 3 consecutive months
b) You should not be having a big loss on a trade- at the most 1-2% on your account
c) Have a r/r of at least 3:1
d) Identify those trades that will give you a decent return ie: 100 + pip move
c) Never ever buy at R1, R2 or R3 and or sell at S1, S2, S3
d) Know what the ADR is. So if price has already moved up 60 pips - there is no point really in buying if the ADR is 80 pips
e) Mark up your charts - see attached. Price often moves best when London opens (GMT)
f) See how price makes a pin bar on London open - rallies to S2, orders get filled drops back, NY opens to test trendline, fails to re-test R2, retests London open and re-test trendline
h) Research what price has done in a similar situation, how long price moved for, how many session. This means you are not going in have a punt- but have everything stacked in your favour

Anyway I am meant to be on holiday
Good luck and and hope that this helps

Fader123
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  • #258
  • Aug 14, 2017 5:06pm Aug 14, 2017 5:06pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} Oh, I wish we can have major elections coming up every other month
Im quite curious, how did you trade the eu elections? The spread were a real turn-off for me.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #259
  • Aug 14, 2017 5:37pm Aug 14, 2017 5:37pm
Wage inflation is the single most important indicator that all major CBs are watching right now. Is that true?

If yes, Wednesday could be huge for both the AUD and GBP if we see strong deviations on wage figures.

RBA
1. Have been neutral with monetary policy.
2. Expectation is more likely to hike than cut. But will stay neutral for a long time.
3. CB is very concerned about the exchange rate of the AUD.

Summary
Especially if we see the minutes emphasize concerns over AUD exchange rate -a miss on wage price index could be the catalyst for a sustained selloff.

As for the GBP
Avg. Earnings index... I'd like to see large deviation to either side. But a good beat is preferable. CPI is likely to remain above 2 percent still.
  • #260
  • Aug 14, 2017 5:41pm Aug 14, 2017 5:41pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
I'm looking at the RBA and FOMC minutes and I'm thinking.. how much effect can we expect them to have in light of CB rhetoric the past week. For e.g The RBA speeches where dovish (not hawkish) last week. So what if the minutes comes out inline with that tone? No surprise. But what if there is a divergence in the minutes? What then?
Perhaps research how much the minutes has caused price to move in the past?
If memory serves me, sometimes there is something unexpected that turns up
Naturally, it depends on what it is
If either minutes were to be hawkish- obviously that currency would rally a lot
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