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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #4,481
  • Aug 12, 2017 5:54am Aug 12, 2017 5:54am
Quoting Yunvic
{quote} Dear Toby, Thank you for reply. But I do not understand. I see that DZ 2 removed SZ 1, SZ 3 removed DZ 2 and broke the TL. After breaking TL the price fell significantly. Why do you assess this daily SZ as weak one? {image}
My concerns with the trade are :-

  1. There's too much activity before the Monthly supply zone that you've drawn.. i.e its too messy.
  2. The time it spent(6 days) just beneath the Daily SZ. This will prove to be a hindrance for price to fall.

Also, in your first post of this trade.. the momentum trendline was incorrectly drawn(Daily TF).

In the second chart it was correct & the Daily SZ that is standing is correctly placed/drawn.
I digged lower into the H4 & got this

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FXCM MetaTrader 4.png Size: 88 KB


That minor demand has taken out a minor supply area above (thus proving to be a hindrance)
Plus the you dont even have a 2:1 to play with. So I'd recommend to take a retracement trade once the 'minor demand' has been taken out.
  • #4,482
  • Aug 12, 2017 6:53am Aug 12, 2017 6:53am
Quoting vickybha
{quote} My concerns with the trade are :- There's too much activity before the Monthly supply zone that you've drawn.. i.e its too messy. The time it spent(6 days) just beneath the Daily SZ. This will prove to be a hindrance for price to fall. Also, in your first post of this trade.. the momentum trendline was incorrectly drawn(Daily TF). In the second chart it was correct & the Daily SZ that is standing is correctly placed/drawn. I digged lower into the H4 & got this {image} That minor demand has taken out a minor supply area above (thus proving...
Hi Vicky
Could you please share the indicator that plot the risk reward in your chart please.
Thanks
  • #4,483
  • Aug 12, 2017 8:14am Aug 12, 2017 8:14am
Quoting ghaziali226
Hi veteran thread members and also Michael if you're reading this. I will keep this quick. Question: I am a day trader using the Supply and Demand method. I use the following Time frames - Daily [Bigger Pic'], 1 Hour [Momen'] and 15 Min [Entry]. I would like to ask, that for a day trader are these time frames suitable or would you like to give me some more recommendations regarding the time frames? I don't like to go lower than the 15M as that (for me) seems like scalping territory. I look forward to your reply. Thanks, Ghazi
Hello ghaziali226.

When choosing timeframes for you sequence, like you rightly noted, the first step is to decide what type of trading you wish to do.

For someone taking short term trades, the daily chart is always a good place to start. Some traders also use the 4hr. The purpose of the trade determines the scaling.

Please remember though, that the smaller in timeframe one goes the more experience and skill will be required in trading because the smaller timeframes are more volatile and so can be challengin. One need not be worried about that though, all that is required is to become more strict in the zones used to trade.

So using a daily, 1hr and 15min is fine only if you understand the above. Most would use the Daily, 4hr and 1hr though.
I generally try not to go below entries on the hourly chart when trading forex because of the unregulated nature of the market environment that forex is.

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #4,484
  • Aug 12, 2017 8:56am Aug 12, 2017 8:56am
Hello Akt,

I have stumbled upon your thread and really like it. I have read through about 50 pages and i am grateful to you for sharing you trading system with us and being here active for such a long time. May i ask why don't you create Trade Explorer? I think it would be of a big help for new traders to get the grasp of the trades we are taking.

Cheers!
  • #4,485
  • Aug 12, 2017 9:25am Aug 12, 2017 9:25am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Hi Vicky Could you please share the indicator that plot the risk reward in your chart please. Thanks
@Merka

I found that thing thru youtube.
Even @Denden2012 had posted about that in the thread.

Here's how its done.
Plot Fibonacci>Rightclick>Fibo Properties> Fibo Levels> make changes to the (level & description) as i have done & you're through.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fibo.jpg Size: 120 KB

Level 0 will be Stop
  • #4,486
  • Aug 12, 2017 10:55am Aug 12, 2017 10:55am
Quoting vickybha
{quote} @Merka I found that thing thru youtube. Even @Denden2012 had posted about that in the thread. Here's how its done. Plot Fibonacci>Rightclick>Fibo Properties> Fibo Levels> make changes to the (level & description) as i have done & you're through. {image} Level 0 will be Stop
Understood.
Thanks
  • #4,487
  • Aug 12, 2017 11:12am Aug 12, 2017 11:12am
Quoting vickybha
{quote} My concerns with the trade are :- There's too much activity before the Monthly supply zone that you've drawn.. i.e its too messy. The time it spent(6 days) just beneath the Daily SZ. This will prove to be a hindrance for price to fall. Also, in your first post of this trade.. the momentum trendline was incorrectly drawn(Daily TF). In the second chart it was correct & the Daily SZ that is standing is correctly placed/drawn. I digged lower into the H4 & got this {image} That minor demand has taken out a minor supply area above (thus proving...
Dear Vickybha,
Thank you very much, your post is precious for me. I still have to learn a lot. But what's wrong with momentum TL on daily chart? Note that it is monthly TL.
Regards
  • #4,488
  • Aug 12, 2017 4:48pm Aug 12, 2017 4:48pm
Quoting Yunvic
{quote} Dear Toby, Now I see your doubts regarding the trade and I agree. But Friday morning we could not consider the daily TL be broken, hence the DZ was not formed, it appeared to be when the day ended. That's why I placed short order little bit above the proximal line. It seemed to me I had enough reasons to expect te price to react to SZ and come back below the TL. This trade I put in SAF style assuming that valid DZ was far below. Anyway thanks again. Now I will be more cautious and analyse more thoroughly. Can I ask, what is your time frame...
Yes, hindsight is 20/20! I agree that the break of the momentum could not have been known at the time of your posting but the poor lead up remains.

My current timeframe is 4H-1H-15M as I have just left university and have alot of time on my hands. I plan to move to M-W-D or W-D-1H when I get a full time job.
I am still relatively new to this method of trading but I am determined to master it as it resonates with my preferred style of trading.

Love this dialogue! Hope we can keep improving!

Regards,
Toby
  • #4,489
  • Aug 12, 2017 10:38pm Aug 12, 2017 10:38pm
Quoting StylesT
{quote} Yes, hindsight is 20/20! I agree that the break of the momentum could not have been known at the time of your posting but the poor lead up remains. My current timeframe is 4H-1H-15M as I have just left university and have alot of time on my hands. I plan to move to M-W-D or W-D-1H when I get a full time job. I am still relatively new to this method of trading but I am determined to master it as it resonates with my preferred style of trading. Love this dialogue! Hope we can keep improving! Regards, Toby
Dear Toby,
I am, vice versa, just retired. I work alittle still but this is mostly supervising job, so I have plenty of time. When I am in office or at home I always try to start with H4-H1-M15 but almost each time eventually come to D-H4-H1 or even higher. Reasons: volatility, rarity of decent RR ratio, high spreads. Anyway I try low TFs and sometimes successfully. I study Forex almost two years and lost 3 or 4 deposits. I was almost disappointed but three month ago found this thread. I liked philosophy of S&D - simplicity of explanation of market behavior, no indicators. I am happy that first time I have two moths a row with zero or slight positive result. In this two months I made more than 100 trades which is obviously stupid. The biggest problem is patience. The finger is constantly trying to pull trigger so I am fighting not the market but myself. I believe this is the main problem of each and every retail trader. Do you agree? If you experience the same, how do you cope with this?
Regards
  • #4,490
  • Aug 13, 2017 12:46am Aug 13, 2017 12:46am
Quoting Yunvic
{quote} Dear Toby, I am, vice versa, just retired. I work alittle still but this is mostly supervising job, so I have plenty of time. When I am in office or at home I always try to start with H4-H1-M15 but almost each time eventually come to D-H4-H1 or even higher. Reasons: volatility, rarity of decent RR ratio, high spreads. Anyway I try low TFs and sometimes successfully. I study Forex almost two years and lost 3 or 4 deposits. I was almost disappointed but three month ago found this thread. I liked philosophy of S&D - simplicity of explanation...
Hi Yunvic,

I believe that I have been drawn to this method for similar reasons to yourself. Simply, it revolves around the underlying stimulus for price movement which can be identified on a chart (Not too easily though, as to maintain our edge in the market). I trust that the identification of these zones using our top-down analysis and using confirmation trades when the opportunity arises, and only then, gives us our edge in the market.

I have come across the same hurdles when trading at these lower timeframes. I often have to widen my entries and be wary of news releases because of the volatility.
I too have struggled with overtrading and taking trades that may not be optimal because I had not definitively defined my decision matrix as Michael refers to in his videos- this along with strict risk management has made a world of difference. I actually believe my trading will improve once I up the timeframe and spend a little less time at the charts, but we will see.

Regards,
Toby
  • #4,491
  • Aug 13, 2017 1:26am Aug 13, 2017 1:26am
Quoting ghostman10
Hello Akt, I have stumbled upon your thread and really like it. I have read through about 50 pages and i am grateful to you for sharing you trading system with us and being here active for such a long time. May i ask why don't you create Trade Explorer? I think it would be of a big help for new traders to get the grasp of the trades we are taking. Cheers!
Hello ghostman10
Good to meet you and thank you for the kind words

Welcome Welcome to T.I.O.F

I have to say i don't really know what a trade explorer is
I post here as much as i can, when i see opportunity, with some lessons incorporated in the posts

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #4,492
  • Aug 13, 2017 4:41am Aug 13, 2017 4:41am
Quoting StylesT
{quote} Hi Yunvic, I believe that I have been drawn to this method for similar reasons to yourself. Simply, it revolves around the underlying stimulus for price movement which can be identified on a chart (Not too easily though, as to maintain our edge in the market). I trust that the identification of these zones using our top-down analysis and using confirmation trades when the opportunity arises, and only then, gives us our edge in the market. I have come across the same hurdles when trading at these lower timeframes. I often have to widen my...
Dear Toby,
How many trades do you have per day on H4-H1-M15? And if you think that you'll have better results in upper TFs why don't you go there?
  • #4,493
  • Aug 13, 2017 6:13pm Aug 13, 2017 6:13pm
Quoting Yunvic
{quote} Dear Toby, How many trades do you have per day on H4-H1-M15? And if you think that you'll have better results in upper TFs why don't you go there?
So far it has been ranging from between 3-8 per week. At the beginning it was much more and as you would expect my win rate was much lower.

I have been using the lower TF as it allows me to gain more experience using this method whilst I have the free time. Im sure there will also be a number of nuances to higher TF SAD trading which I will have to become accustom too.
  • #4,494
  • Aug 13, 2017 11:39pm Aug 13, 2017 11:39pm
Dear all,
Take a look, please. Is this OK?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 189 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 185 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 186 KB
  • #4,495
  • Aug 14, 2017 3:22pm Aug 14, 2017 3:22pm
A trade opportunity I like on the BUND today, short on Daily or 8H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BUND short_8h_conf.png Size: 95 KB
  • #4,496
  • Aug 15, 2017 5:51am Aug 15, 2017 5:51am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello ghaziali226. When choosing timeframes for you sequence, like you rightly noted, the first step is to decide what type of trading you wish to do. For someone taking short term trades, the daily chart is always a good place to start. Some traders also use the 4hr. The purpose of the trade determines the scaling. Please remember though, that the smaller in timeframe one goes the more experience and skill will be required in trading because the smaller timeframes are more volatile and so can be challengin. One need not be worried about...

Hello Michael, thanks for the reply. You are indeed correct. After back testing heavily over the weekend i was shown that not going below the 1 hour produced better results for me. The 1 H seems more ''cleaner'' so to speak and i make better entry decisions on the 1 hour and yesterday i took a significant hit to my live account as i went against my own rules and entered on the 15M (got greedy) when i knew not to do that, but we live and we learn. Your reply went hand in hand with what my back testing showed thank you very much.
  • #4,497
  • Aug 15, 2017 6:00am Aug 15, 2017 6:00am
Quoting Yunvic
Dear all, Take a look, please. Is this OK? {image} {image} {image}

Hi,
Please keep this mind when analyzing CAD pairs. This is just my opinion but always look at US-OIL before your get into a CAD pair. Just like Michael always analyses the DXY before going further with USD pairs. US-OIL has (i think) has an 80% negative correlation with CAD pairs so in your analysis you were going short CADJPY but US-OIL is currently on its way down (getting weaker, therefore making CAD pairs stronger) to the next Daily demand zone. I would not look for shorts on the CAD pairs until US-OIL hits that Daily demand. That's just my basic opinion, i maybe wrong. Take care.
  • #4,498
  • Aug 15, 2017 10:32am Aug 15, 2017 10:32am
Quoting Yunvic
{quote} The biggest problem is patience. The finger is constantly trying to pull trigger so I am fighting not the market but myself. I believe this is the main problem of each and every retail trader. Do you agree? If you experience the same, how do you cope with this? Regards
you got it, spot on to the pip

How I cope with a lack of patience? thats the subject for a whole new thread.
  • #4,499
  • Aug 15, 2017 10:35am Aug 15, 2017 10:35am
Quoting ghaziali226
{quote} Hi, Please keep this mind when analyzing CAD pairs. This is just my opinion but always look at US-OIL before your get into a CAD pair. Just like Michael always analyses the DXY before going further with USD pairs. US-OIL has (i think) has an 80% negative correlation with CAD pairs so in your analysis you were going short CADJPY but US-OIL is currently on its way down (getting weaker, therefore making CAD pairs stronger) to the next Daily demand zone. I would not look for shorts on the CAD pairs until US-OIL hits that Daily demand. That's...
you are correct! oil is very correlated to the CAD. SO it is always best to check oil, before getting too many CAD trades on. much like usdx often can tell you what many usd pairs are going to do in advance, but even better yet is pairing the sessions weakest currency against the sessions strongest currency, of course with your eyes (and pending orders) never losing sight of the LT S/D extreme (reversal) value zones.
  • #4,500
  • Aug 15, 2017 10:59am Aug 15, 2017 10:59am
Quoting ghaziali226
{quote} Hello Michael, thanks for the reply. You are indeed correct. After back testing heavily over the weekend i was shown that not going below the 1 hour produced better results for me. The 1 H seems more ''cleaner'' so to speak and i make better entry decisions on the 1 hour and yesterday i took a significant hit to my live account as i went against my own rules and entered on the 15M (got greedy) when i knew not to do that, but we live and we learn. Your reply went hand in hand with what my back testing showed thank you very much.
Hello ghaziali.

You are most welcome

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
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