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the big indicator lie

  • #61
  • Jun 29, 2017 4:08pm Jun 29, 2017 4:08pm
I just created a thread to break this tabu.

The understanding of indicators in general totally wrong.

There are pretty pretty much advanced and leading indicators if you know how to look at them.

I can say , Every price action method that you trade out of gamble can calculated to give you approximation.

Finding correct way is hardester. I had a mentor(s) and some skilled people to learn how they do it to replicate the process...

One day when i work at hotel receptionist i met with one man that came to the hotel with his group of students.
He did explained me what kind of indicators they created for Banks with group of people on HFT tech.

Some of them can go complex
but simple ones efficient as complex ones.

The problem begins where you should realize its not about the indicator. However RSI , Moving averages and even Pivots are very strong indicators..
The way you use it is the main question mark.. It did take 3 years day & night to get my AHA point..

No matter how many tools or indicators you have if you don't know how to use them they will not help you.
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Take it easy.
  • #62
  • Edited 12:32am Jun 30, 2017 12:19am | Edited 12:32am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Good point but are you going to share the "HOW" or just state the obvious?
I wont say publicly how to 10000 people.
But there is one guy did speak about "How they did it"
Actually James simons did point how they did it aswell.. Indicators ? yeah.

"Never Override computer"
And people discussing about Indicators are lie..

What type indicators that is the question..
Indicator is just what you want to see from market..
Even time frames are indicators.. Which you create OHLC from Tick price...
If you break out the subjectivity you will left with tick price only.. That is mother of all Data..

20HR Moving average Time factor added indicator. (Still subjective because of the MA Period)
20TicK Moving Average Time factor removed indicator. (Still subjective because of the MA Period)

Any other , Renkos , candlesticks , time frames , Fibo , drawn trendline are indicator..
How this indicators are generated ? They are generated with averaging the Tick price.
So you creating your own universe with price.


Inserted Video

Inserted Video
Take it easy.
  • #63
  • Jun 30, 2017 5:42am Jun 30, 2017 5:42am
Quoting highway
{quote} I have a gun and bullets made by robots. Would you like to confront me with your hand made stone axe? Quick to prove if robots are better. PS - All depends which idiot is using the indicators
Agree
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
  • #64
  • Jun 30, 2017 11:18am Jun 30, 2017 11:18am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Near miss. 1 starts where 2 is now. If the rate was about to go up, there would have been 18 ziggis, but it fell down and turn around. That is why the ziggis are 19. These ziggis serve at least two purposes: 1. Kill all grids. 2. Delude trend devotees. 3. Wait for more money to gather in the market's gigantic basket. There might be more good reasons, but my iq is 75 only and i am not interested in thinking them over...
"There might be more good reasons, but my iq is 75 only and i am not interested in thinking them over..."

And the earth is Flat...

You are always underplaying your self...

PS: Really looking forward to your reply on guidlines on how to properly count the ZZ...

Thanks
  • #65
  • Jun 30, 2017 2:28pm Jun 30, 2017 2:28pm
Quoting Quants
{quote} I wont say publicly how to 10000 people. But there is one guy did speak about "How they did it" Actually James simons did point how they did it aswell.. Indicators ? yeah. "Never Override computer" And people discussing about Indicators are lie.. What type indicators that is the question.. Indicator is just what you want to see from market.. Even time frames are indicators.. Which you create OHLC from Tick price... If you break out the subjectivity you will left with tick price only.. That is mother of all Data.. 20HR Moving average Time...
Thanks for the videos. All this is again stating the obvious (to me). Perhaps I have read and ruled out most of the junk out there associated with 'systemic' indicator-based strategies. I will hold on to this theory of mine unless I find someone who can prove me wrong...

"THERE IS NO CONSISTENT (minimum 3yrs) EDGE ON A SINGLE CHART WITH PRICE OVER TIME"... prove me wrong and I will quit trading and donate my entire account balance to charity !

EDIT: This applies only to Spot FX PAIRS..... a combination of two country's currency competing against each other for dominance. Trading on single pair on a single timeframe for long term profitability is just NOT possible !
Staying in my lane...
  • #66
  • Jun 30, 2017 3:50pm Jun 30, 2017 3:50pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks for the videos. All this is again stating the obvious (to me). Perhaps I have read and ruled out most of the junk out there associated with 'systemic' indicator-based strategies. I will hold on to this theory of mine unless I find someone who can prove me wrong... "THERE IS NO CONSISTENT (minimum 3yrs) EDGE ON A SINGLE CHART WITH PRICE OVER TIME"... prove me wrong and I will quit trading and donate my entire account balance to charity ! EDIT: This applies only to Spot FX PAIRS..... a combination of two country's currency competing...
i trade since 6 years 11 strategies and 3 since 5 years, 8 per 3 years that i never changed. so its not that difficult to have consistent wins in 1 currency. many ideas dont work you will develop by trading same time, but some are really good and will work. simple you need to write down each idea and proper paper test it, then program if possible to do,. when then you get 10:1 win to drawdown it shouzld be worth to trade it, because has enough potential for some bad trading times or some wrong price movements. of course you need many loser in your stratgey to calculate all correctly, if you have only some losses, all would be to risky for me.
  • #67
  • Jun 30, 2017 3:52pm Jun 30, 2017 3:52pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks for the videos. All this is again stating the obvious (to me). Perhaps I have read and ruled out most of the junk out there associated with 'systemic' indicator-based strategies. I will hold on to this theory of mine unless I find someone who can prove me wrong... "THERE IS NO CONSISTENT (minimum 3yrs) EDGE ON A SINGLE CHART WITH PRICE OVER TIME"... prove me wrong and I will quit trading and donate my entire account balance to charity ! EDIT: This applies only to Spot FX PAIRS..... a combination of two country's currency competing...
That is the thing you say, Markets change one rule wont work forever but it can work for a while.

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Guess why..

Few weeks ago i did made one thread. No responses , No surprises for me.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=663538
Take it easy.
  • #68
  • Jun 30, 2017 4:02pm Jun 30, 2017 4:02pm
This is price
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This is an (x,y) indicator of the (time,price)
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Everything else is an argument over the varying degrees of indicators based on an indicator.
  • #69
  • Jun 30, 2017 4:06pm Jun 30, 2017 4:06pm
I only use my own algos, a few of them are actually profitable. In fact, most of them can be with optimization. Manual trading is irrelevant due to emotional garbage.
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  • #70
  • Jun 30, 2017 6:48pm Jun 30, 2017 6:48pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} (i forgot to change the data range from 5/31 to 6/30 but here it is just to give a sneak on what I do) Once this generation is complete, I filer out (in excel) only the quality signals and then apply (hardcode) it to my EA to only trade quality (and proven) signals for July. This is my way of MACHINE LEARNING given the constraints of storing petabytes of data. {image}
You may like to check www.wholesaleinternet.com for dedicated servers as you need strong one for this processing they have it for pretty good prices..

Yes I do understand what you do.

Its not only "we" realized it as " individual traders".

There is another guy with 0 Response from 2009

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=207617

Guess why.

Having something right is very challenging..
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Take it easy.
  • #71
  • Edited 12:31am Jul 1, 2017 12:05am | Edited 12:31am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks for the link. I have used some of 7bit's work in my own research. I am a technology executive with 25+ yrs in IT but never had the inclination to go HFT or automation route until 2 yrs (after being compelled to learn how to code) Frankly, I haven't come around anyone who incorporates my approach. I have never run my EA in strategy tester because it cannot be tested because it is multipair, multi-TF and trades only 85+% winning signals from past 3 yrs with a universal approach towards entries, exits, RM, MM etc In your opinion, is...
Yes , Over-fitting..
Quote
have never run my EA in strategy tester because it cannot be tested because it is multi-pair, multi-TF and trades only
that's why i wanted to find trading platform where you can use MTF , multi pair backt-ester.. However the speed have been issue.. Finding right people to do it was even more challenging over weeks.. Multicharts.Net , Ninjatrader , jtrader , protrader, Stocksharp , modulus , quant-connect.. The ones that i found out of MT4..
But each of them either slow , inaccurate or buggy.. Finally some talented coders came up with a solution doing everything in our own back-tester..

If trading strategies are gold , back-testing is diamond.




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Take it easy.
  • #72
  • Jul 1, 2017 3:02am Jul 1, 2017 3:02am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} That is truly a challenge. It took me over 2 yrs to develop a comprehensive strategy with running several versions in parallel, generating stats and heaps of backtesting stats to where I am now. Doing this manual form of machine learning is really restrictive and time consuming. Any thoughts on how to avoid over-fitting in machine learning algos (it's too early to come to that conclusion for me) ? It seems, the end result will determine that but I don't want to wait for another 2-3 years to prove to myself. Jan-May was consistent but June...
Over-fitting can be avoided by increasing data range and decreasing data inputs..
Or Some regularization techniques

Yeah according to theory neural network can be build to learn from the behavior of machine learning algo..
There might be some commonalities identified..
But again this time you need even more data of whole process
such a characteristics of found strategies...

algorithm can learn 2 different strategy but they may have two different characteristic trading style while they are at same % win ratio.
One advanced chain can developed to learn from it..

Not reached or tested that stage yet.
But probably that is the way to improve results
Take it easy.
  • #73
  • Jul 1, 2017 3:51am Jul 1, 2017 3:51am
Not all coders believe in new fashion techniques. Maybe that is the reason this kind of petitions are not answered. If OOP goal is divide task in smaller ( divide and conquer) maybe auto trading philosophy should be same. About HTF big boys are using what is the magic? Make thousands of small trades faster than other systems? That looks more lottery than serious system
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #74
  • Aug 12, 2017 10:12am Aug 12, 2017 10:12am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} I have to pick up my kid from the kinder-garden. Will reply in more details. But i STRONGLY suggest you to examine the ziggy's flips. Using ZigZag indi might be really tricky, but i do not see any other meaningful (public) indicator that could possible be in any help, unfortunately. The ziggys are always coming before the movement. If you know their average number, you are getting closer to the movement. Ziggys + trend lines will give you some 30 to max 90 pips. I could not find more (for now). More is possible, if you enter every 60-90...
Hi Moneyzilla,
Can you please share your findings so far on no drawdown trading techniques? Is it via multi pairs basket? Or marking on each day the day of a particular pair? Pair behaviour on a daily basis : can it be predicted?

Thanks a lot.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #75
  • Aug 12, 2017 2:48pm Aug 12, 2017 2:48pm
Quoting simnz
{quote} Hi Moneyzilla, Can you please share your findings so far on no drawdown trading techniques? Is it via multi pairs basket? Or marking on each day the day of a particular pair? Pair behaviour on a daily basis : can it be predicted? Thanks a lot.
I have multiple set ups I barely keep track of them, but the best I have ever come so far is trading 29 pairs (28 majors + gold). On a 10k account, the biggest DD I have witness was around -$150 USD. Most of the time, before that huge DD fall, it stood in between -$30 and -$50 (for about a week or 8-9 days?!?). The night it went down to -$150, the next morning it was at +$850 and then the same day at +$1,100. That was the moment of the GBP rally, two weeks before or so.

Most of the 29 pairs were negative, but all the GBPs were hugely outperforming most of the other currencies, which had negative balance at this very moment.

On a single pair, no DD approach seems slippery, as of now. Struggling with that at the moment. Not very successful, unfortunately.

I know for sure day trading is the most difficult kind of trading, among all other ways of trading. This is dangerous as hell. And maybe even as twice as hard. Weekly or monthly trading is far more simple and easy. Incomparably simple and easy. -10% DD, +20% profit. Do it once or twice a month. It is boring as hell...

Day trading is what really interests me, cause I am an impatient kind of guy. Do not have the patience. I need rich and I need it RIGHT NOW. Do not want to wait some stupid 15 years!!! This weekly/monthly way of trading is too slow... It takes forever.

Day trading is something else. But so far, cant make it work (as I like it). For a day or two I make 40-45% of the account (with just -1.44% of a DD) and on the next day I lose the WHOLE profit. Dont know when to stop. I am so greedy. But I will make it. I am sure I will. It is just a matter of more tries.

If day trading does not happen the way I want it, I will have to live with the weekly/monthly trading and that is it, will not get rich, but I will not be a poor guy either...

About the next day prediction. It is possible. It is very precise when the rate is in below 150 pips range. One day is a buy, the next will be a sell. This might repeat from 2 to 10 times (sometimes). The problem pops out from the fact I could not find a way to detect when the range is no more and then the next day prediction at that moment of leaving the range does not seem possible... unless one bets on a trend direction.

The bet part I am not like. "Knowing is better than betting." (MoneyZilla) hahahahahahah!:-))))
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #76
  • Aug 14, 2017 7:35am Aug 14, 2017 7:35am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} I have multiple set ups I barely keep track of them, but the best I have ever come so far is trading 29 pairs (28 majors + gold). On a 10k account, the biggest DD I have witness was around -$150 USD. Most of the time, before that huge DD fall, it stood in between -$30 and -$50 (for about a week or 8-9 days?!?). The night it went down to -$150, the next morning it was at +$850 and then the same day at +$1,100. That was the moment of the GBP rally, two weeks before or so. Most of the 29 pairs were negative, but all the GBPs were hugely outperforming...
Thank you for sharing your experience. I gave up after making 40% in a month after suffering 60% drawdown in day trading . It was just not worth riding a psychological roller coaster for almost 2 months.

I am now trying for similar performance by trading GBPJPY for around 45 days with 1 risk and 2 reward by trading only at extreme price lines. This is the only pair I am experienced in day trading earlier. So far it is working.

I feel if on a 14 session basis we can identify a day when particular major currency group (one or two maximum) will take a turn rise or fall like a dance show showing movements of each dancer by turn, day trading can then be done as a calculated move. Pairs seem to behave in this pattern and economic events are used to trigger the shows.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #77
  • Aug 26, 2017 1:17am Aug 26, 2017 1:17am
Is there any EA for zigzag indicator. With good money management.

Need to know how the DD will be calculate. Which chart is best for zigzag indicator for low deposit account for 500$ with margin call of 50%. Will this strategy will work or i need more deposit
  • #78
  • Aug 26, 2017 1:19am Aug 26, 2017 1:19am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} I have multiple set ups I barely keep track of them, but the best I have ever come so far is trading 29 pairs (28 majors + gold). On a 10k account, the biggest DD I have witness was around -$150 USD. Most of the time, before that huge DD fall, it stood in between -$30 and -$50 (for about a week or 8-9 days?!?). The night it went down to -$150, the next morning it was at +$850 and then the same day at +$1,100. That was the moment of the GBP rally, two weeks before or so. Most of the 29 pairs were negative, but all the GBPs were hugely outperforming...

how you able to manage only 150$ DD MAX by using 29 pair r you using micro lot or 100% hedging
  • #79
  • Aug 26, 2017 1:37am Aug 26, 2017 1:37am
I agree, indicators tend to be 'oversold'. We rely on them far too much and too often.

I use a tweaked one. And along with a feel for the indexes themselves -because I've been trading them for years, it all works out ok.

I really do like the 'price action only' trading method, although I haven't yet attempted it. Seems really balsy! Anything that cleans up your windows is probably a good thing as well. You just have to find what works for you and your style. And when you think you have that, then get your 'Account Management' in order, and it'll all be more than fine.

Small draw downs, overall consistency, along with measured risks are the gold standards toward trading success.
Index Planets
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