EUR/USD: 3 Reasons For A Correction Towards 1.15 - ABN AMRO | Forex Factory

  • EUR/USD: 3 Reasons For A Correction Towards 1.15 - ABN AMRO

    From efxnews.com

    ANB AMRO FX Strategy Research expects that the EUR rally will run out of steam in the near term on the back of the following 3 reasons. "1- For a start, we expect ECB President Mario Draghi to dampen expectations about early rate hikes. The ECB is concerned that tapering will trigger a tightening of financial conditions and seems focused on tapering without triggering a tantrum. 2- Moreover, recently the yield spread between the US and Germany has widened a bit again, while EUR/USD has continued to be strong. We think that the yield spreads (nominal and real yields) do not justify EUR/USD being at current ... (full story)

Comment Options
OnlineAddict
Aug 10, 2017 1:55pm
Permalink
Quoting wswi
not only 1.15 but im aiming for 1.06 for closing gap
Banks are laughing at retail gap theories.
Reply
Not-KPMG
Aug 10, 2017 1:45pm
Permalink
Here's the plan.
1.1755 now.
1.1805 soon.
1.1615 next....weeks.
Struggle....
1.20 next month.

I expect 10% of all profits and 0% of losses
Reply
mkjenna
Aug 10, 2017 2:08pm
Permalink
Quoting Not-KPMG
I expect 10% of all profits and 0% of losses
Man, you should make that your signature
Reply
wildbill2u
Aug 11, 2017 8:34am
Permalink
The top ten banks worldwide used to control 83% of all FX trades. Now that figure is down to about 60% in the latest reports. Add in the 2nd tier banks and you are back to 80% again.

Add in the fact that all these banks report significant profits from currency trading as differentiated from currency exchange trading for commercial business and you have an argument for the "possibility" of market manipulation for profit.

Is there any logical reason for a "whipsaw"in the market after a fundamental announcement by a government on policy---- other than to rip off straddlers and dumb money?

95% of retail traders blow out their account in 6 months. Over 90% of retail traders cannot string together consecutive profitable quarters for three years. If you believe that the market moves in random chaos, you will not succeed.
Reply
cliffedwards
Aug 10, 2017 1:31pm
Permalink
Quoting kbeatti
A push by the Corporate elites in need of good earnings are contributing to this USD decline. The Yen is strong at this moment my GBP/JPY trade is having fits!
"Corporate Elites" ??? get a grip..
Its 5 Trillion a day market. WTF you think is playing/driving it?
The fkucing Salvation army? Your local Credit Union? You? Me? FF? Oanda?
Reply
cliffedwards
Aug 10, 2017 2:35pm — Edited
Permalink
Quoting StrongOnStab
{quote} Don't be confused with big numbers. Politicians decide the new price level and in what time, and the bankers bring them "market" there. Very simple.
WTF? If you really think the world and this business is that simple..
Stick to tech trading becaus you will loose your ass if you trade on fundamentals.
Come on youre a smart guy.

Edit.. on reflection your point is good. Political/National actor economic policy does play a big part in the mix.
But its not simple. and remember they are all at it, so a lot cancels itself out?
Sorry was a bit distracted when I typed the above.
Reply
StrongOnStab
Aug 11, 2017 5:48am
Permalink
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} Edit.. on reflection your point is good. Political/National actor economic policy does play a big part in the mix.
This is the reason why so many traders lose money (even existence). When bankers know the new price level and in what time - they can play whatever they want in that given channel. They can take money from that price channel without any risk.
Reply
Not-KPMG
Aug 10, 2017 1:43pm
Permalink
Quoting cliffedwards
{qu....
WTF you think is playing/driving it?
The fkucing Salvation army? Your local Credit Union? You? Me? FF? Oanda?

I AM !!!

Reply
OnlineAddict
Aug 11, 2017 11:33am
Permalink
Quoting wswi
{quote} well see next year...
If the price goes down there, it won't have anything with closing a gap. Or is that some secret know how? To open a trade...be in a big drawdown(possible 10-20 margin calls on the way) for 2-3 years(still a gap above 1.20)...and then close in a 10 pip profit?
Reply
Not-KPMG
Aug 11, 2017 5:32pm
Permalink
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} Bill.. interesting article by Raul Lopez here on what your saying.. http://www.protradingnow.com/author/raul-lopez/ look for : A new way to trade fundamental (news) releases May 5 2017.... .
This is honestly the stupidest thing i read all week, after Trumpy.

Let's put rubber gloves and quote :

Now… what happened to the market? Did it react to the NFP report?
It didnt…

And that about last Wednesday… during the FOMC statement?
No reaction either…

And that’s what I’ve been noticing in the last year or so…

So I think we need to adapt again.

The new rule would be something like this:

IGNORE FUNDAMENTAL RELEASES

Do nothing… if I’m holding a trade, just keep it…
......

EndQuote. Throw gloves. Vomit.

But losers write articles. 5 cent per word....

🍻
Reply
imbonitore
Aug 10, 2017 11:30am
Permalink
Quoting wswi
not only 1.15 but im aiming for 1.06 for closing gap
min to close gap ... when eur starts to fall, only the God knows where the bottom will be... I think the euro will be the same as the dollar
Reply
hkg_paul
Aug 10, 2017 11:35am
Permalink
of course, German and Austrian election ahead. And if we are looking for save heaven ... then better CHF then JPy. Even the Yen is very strong at the Moment.
Reply
wswi
Aug 10, 2017 11:04am
Permalink
not only 1.15 but im aiming for 1.06 for closing gap
Reply
wswi
Aug 11, 2017 9:35am
Permalink
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Banks are laughing at retail gap theories.
well see next year...
Reply
StrongOnStab
Aug 10, 2017 2:45pm
Permalink
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} WTF? If you really think the world and this business is that simple.. Stick to tech trading becaus you will loose your ass if you trade on fundamentals. Come on youre a smart guy.
And you believe that the "market" decides where to go? This business is like any other under control. Think a little.
Reply
cliffedwards
Aug 11, 2017 9:29am
Permalink
Quoting wildbill2u
The top ten banks worldwide used to control 83% of all FX trades. Now that figure is down to about 60% in the latest reports. Add in the 2nd tier banks and you are back to 80% again. Add in the fact that all these banks report significant profits from currency trading as differentiated from currency exchange trading for commercial business and you have an argument for the "possibility" of market manipulation for profit. Is there any logical reason for a "whipsaw"in the market after a fundamental announcement by a government on...
Bill.. interesting article by Raul Lopez here on what your saying..
http://www.protradingnow.com/author/raul-lopez/
look for : A new way to trade fundamental (news) releases
May 5 2017.

Rings bells for me.. and prob for you..
Cheers.
Reply
arash66110
Aug 10, 2017 11:46am
Permalink
at the same time
https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=690535#post10177053
I really wonder if they let this correction happen.
bastards want weak usd!
Reply
kbeatti
Aug 10, 2017 12:14pm
Permalink
A push by the Corporate elites in need of good earnings are contributing to this USD decline. The Yen is strong at this moment my GBP/JPY trade is having fits!
Reply
StrongOnStab
Aug 10, 2017 2:18pm
Permalink
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} Its 5 Trillion a day market. WTF you think is playing/driving it? The fkucing Salvation army? Your local Credit Union? You? Me? FF? Oanda?
Don't be confused with big numbers. Politicians decide the new price level and in what time, and the bankers bring them "market" there. Very simple.
Reply
Trader#EE51
Aug 10, 2017 8:12pm
Permalink
Realistically where do you see EU heading? test the 1.14 area and continue up?
Reply
  • Story Stats