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  • #221
  • Aug 10, 2017 6:38am Aug 10, 2017 6:38am
Quoting Bsmile44
{quote} I did well when trump won the election, got smacked a little with brexit and france though. What is your expectations for the upcoming German election?
I have an idea but i need to do a lot of research first
  • #222
  • Aug 10, 2017 7:07am Aug 10, 2017 7:07am
We are all at different levels here, but to get good this you have to learn stuff

As a start, if you haven't done so watch Jarratt Davis videos. They are on you tube.
  • #223
  • Aug 10, 2017 8:31am Aug 10, 2017 8:31am
Quoting Fader123
We are all at different levels here, but to get good this you have to learn stuff As a start, if you haven't done so watch Jarratt Davis videos. They are on you tube.
Definitely at different levels. We all probably have different fundamental strategy as well. Some of us like to trade central bankers, whilst others like to trade economic data releases. But I believe we can all learn a thing or two from each other!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #224
  • Aug 10, 2017 9:15am Aug 10, 2017 9:15am
Quoting Mdm92
anyone looking at USDZAR?, given the recent #noconfidence vote I would have thought we've be heading higher but I'm not sure if this whole nuclear banter with north korea is playing a bigger impact there than the markets lack of confidence in Jacob Zuma.....
Ahhh south african rand!
I would like to chip in on this. Before that, i must warn you that whatever I say is my own opinion/understanding of the markets. I MAY BE WRONG
For pairs such as zar, you must understand the political landscape in south africa.

Simply put, Zuma is not good for the economy due to the corruption scandal and all. Ousting him will instill a sense of confidence in investors in terms of corruption.

Then we have the economy, which is basically a developing country with cheap labour. Great to set up factories and/or invest in.
Then we have the high interest rate. Great for carry trades. Especially in a risk seeking environment during 2016.

The combination of the above mentioned two makes zar a prime target of "hot money". Basically heavy money flow which are speculative. The characteristics of hot money is that money leaves as quick as they pour in. On first reports of global/national economic uncertainly, you will see huge withdrawals in zar. The good news is that when times are good and foreign investors are in risk seeking mode, the zar can rise quickly too.

My recommendation for zar only to only trade it in times of global economic and political stability. Or to buy it during global market crashes, as it will be "cheap". Now is not a good time thou. Also, you must have the guts to weather the volatility in prices. Definitely not a currency I will trade with high leverage.

In the very long term (10++ years), I view that zar as one of the currency with growth potential. But its unlikely anybody will invest in currency that long.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #225
  • Aug 11, 2017 1:10pm Aug 11, 2017 1:10pm
Even though I have missed a few trades
So far this month am up 864 pips
Most amount down was may be 30 pips
Flat going into the weekend
Next week will be a great week
Good luck
  • #226
  • Aug 11, 2017 1:33pm Aug 11, 2017 1:33pm
Quoting Fader123
Even though I have missed a few trades So far this month am up 864 pips Most amount down was may be 30 pips Flat going into the weekend Next week will be a great week Good luck

Well done man!

Keep up the good trading
  • #227
  • Aug 11, 2017 1:40pm Aug 11, 2017 1:40pm
Well done indeed. I missed the CPI this morning but it looks like there's more trades to come next week so I'm not concerned.
  • #228
  • Aug 11, 2017 2:23pm Aug 11, 2017 2:23pm
Quoting Fader123
Even though I have missed a few trades So far this month am up 864 pips Most amount down was may be 30 pips Flat going into the weekend Next week will be a great week Good luck
The 20-30 pips was on the Kiwi
But I think I got about 110 off it in the end
Even though price action moved up. I was itching to sell it.
I should have known what was going on and could have read the charts a bit better
The statement was bullish, and it was only the speech that made it drop.
The thing is going forward he and we now know that the threat of cuts are not needed anymore, just talk of "intervention"
Think I need to watch it again
At last we know where we stand now.
Think this strength in the dollar has waned a bit.
Knew it wouldn't last.
Once this NK situation line, Aus and Canada will be in line
  • #229
  • Aug 11, 2017 2:39pm Aug 11, 2017 2:39pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} The 20-30 pips was on the Kiwi But I think I got about 110 off it in the end Even though price action moved up. I was itching to sell it. I should have known what was going on and could have read the charts a bit better The statement was bullish, and it was only the speech that made it drop. The thing is going forward he and we now know that the threat of cuts are not needed anymore, just talk of "intervention" Think I need to watch it again At last we know where we stand now. Think this strength in the dollar has waned a bit. Knew it wouldn't...
Fader how did you do with today's CPI data? I use dataflash to get instant data release at the time. I would've easily nabbed 50 pips but had technical issues with my Wifi. I only ended up scalping for 5 pips in the whip lash aftermath.
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #230
  • Edited 6:04pm Aug 11, 2017 4:25pm | Edited 6:04pm
Quoting Bsmile44
{quote} Fader how did you do with today's CPI data? I use dataflash to get instant data release at the time. I would've easily nabbed 50 pips but had technical issues with my Wifi. I only ended up scalping for 5 pips in the whip lash aftermath.
Hi Bsmile44, unlucky - there should be some decent trades next week

This was one of the trades I missed. It won't happen again
The one minute would have been tough today- especially on the UJ. The others looked ok
On the euro on the 1 minute you could of have got about 30 pips on the first pullback

As this is such an important figure, you could look at the larger time-frames 10 minute
Work out where the orders are - typically they are stuck at pivot levels or 00 levels or major support/resistance levels
Looking at the EURUSD price rallied to R2.
There are loads of orders here- you could possibly fade this
Price falls back to the high of Asian session- unable to breakdown further
Possible place to go long- as price was probably going to re-test R2 (more orders)
This would have given about 70 pips doing it this way
Obviously you have to do a lot of chart reading
Know where the orders are, what the sentiment is (at the time)- this will tell you where price is likely to go
Long wicks will certainly confirm a change in direction
If you are new to all this demo trade it until you have cracked it
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  • #231
  • Aug 11, 2017 5:33pm Aug 11, 2017 5:33pm
Nice one Fader123!
IMO, the markets are still weary of N.K and risk of war. Friday's move could be profit taking. I could be wrong and I wish i am wrong. Coz I hold positions in exact opposite to my views. (I should probably hedge with gold)

Moving on, this is for everyone:
What are your views on currencies next week?

Who will be the biggest winners/losers? Share your thoughts with us.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #232
  • Aug 12, 2017 6:28am Aug 12, 2017 6:28am
Possibly the most useful thread in FF. Thanks.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #233
  • Aug 12, 2017 6:54am Aug 12, 2017 6:54am
Thanks a lot,
Im new at Forex, just started few days ago studying, and im preparing for a couple mounths of demo trade to achive expierence. Right Know im absorving every information that i can get from foruns ebooks, etc. I risk to say that this thread is a divinal inspiration and a key-piece to everyone who are just getting started on this new adventure.
Thanks a lot Guys,
  • #234
  • Edited 4:44pm Aug 13, 2017 12:06pm | Edited 4:44pm
Quoting synicz
Nice one Fader123! IMO, the markets are still weary of N.K and risk of war. Friday's move could be profit taking. I could be wrong and I wish i am wrong. Coz I hold positions in exact opposite to my views. (I should probably hedge with gold) Moving on, this is for everyone: What are your views on currencies next week? Who will be the biggest winners/losers? Share your thoughts with us.
Looking at the pound the main one is CPI on Tuesday
Earnings are going to be really important on Weds
Carney has referred to wage inflation a lot in his latest speeches/MPC meeting
Also retail sales will be looked at
Geopolitically the UK government really needs to get its act together over Brexit
I am not holding out too much hope I'm afraid, although there were some reports on Bloomberg and Reuters today
Last week the market has turned negative on the pound following the BOE statement

Let's see what the estimates are. Employment figures are looking going good. Just need to see if this has fed through into wages.
  • #235
  • Aug 13, 2017 12:53pm Aug 13, 2017 12:53pm
Hi Fader, I am very glad that you keep posting here. I was on vacation and couldn't have participated to the thread recently.

BTW do you know where can we find info about yield spreads, like Eur Bund, US 10 yr etc.? Not rates itself, but relationship and changes between them. Analysts very often point to differences in yield spreads as the reason for markets move.

Regards,
  • #236
  • Aug 13, 2017 4:20pm Aug 13, 2017 4:20pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Looking at the pound the main one is CPI on Tuesday Earnings are going to be really important on Weds Carney has referred to earnings this a lot Also retail sales will be looked at Geopolitically the UK government really needs to get its act together over Brexit I am not holding out too much hope I'm afraid, although there were some reports on Bloomberg and Reuters today Last week the market has turned negative on the pound following the BOE statement Let's see what the estimates are. Employment figures are looking going good. Just need...
Dont forget any war like talk that goes on between Trump and North Korea will lend the yen great strength for a few days like lasts weeks comments
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #237
  • Aug 13, 2017 4:20pm Aug 13, 2017 4:20pm
Quoting zosoforever
Hi Fader, I am very glad that you keep posting here. I was on vacation and couldn't have participated to the thread recently. BTW do you know where can we find info about yield spreads, like Eur Bund, US 10 yr etc.? Not rates itself, but relationship and changes between them. Analysts very often point to differences in yield spreads as the reason for markets move. Regards,
Hi - try interactive brokers or perhaps saxo bank
  • #238
  • Aug 13, 2017 4:36pm Aug 13, 2017 4:36pm
Quoting Bsmile44
{quote} Dont forget any war like talk that goes on between Trump and North Korea will lend the yen great strength for a few days like lasts weeks comments
Yep that is true Bsmile44

Feel that the USDCHF would be the better trade.
In any event we have not heard too much from NK since Trumps latest rant.
Having a decent news feed on will help

Obviously the views of Dudley last week, poor CPI and very poor PPI figures have given the dollar a bit of a kicking
  • #239
  • Aug 13, 2017 4:56pm Aug 13, 2017 4:56pm
Some questions;

Who here

  1. Reads central bank statements & member speeches
  2. Knows which CB members are doves/neutral/hawks
  3. Knows what figures central banks are most concerned with
  4. Knows the position of each major country in relation to the economic cycle

  • #240
  • Aug 13, 2017 5:48pm Aug 13, 2017 5:48pm
Quoting Fader123
Some questions; Who here Reads central bank statements & member speeches Knows which CB members are doves/neutral/hawks Knows what figures central banks are most concerned with Knows the position of each major country in relation to the economic cycle
I do some. I will make sure I do the rest asap. Thanks for the directions.
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