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The trend is not your friend...

  • #61
  • Aug 9, 2017 10:22pm Aug 9, 2017 10:22pm
Quoting TradeGenuis
You need to identify a new trend before most of the market does, that means you are trying to pick turning points or (contrary to the previous prevailing trend). The moment it become apparent that we are in a new trend is when to get out. The hardest part for me is to determine what the last fool wants to pay.
Why do you think this? It makes absolutely no sense. You need to understand the underlying structure of the market before you start thinking about trends, or any other TA techniques. Spend time thinking about why the market has been doing what it has been doing, before you can begin to think about what it might do next. Especially the notion that you need to get out of the market when the new trend begins, I mean, how utterly stupid is that? Take a look at the $/CAD, 4H chart. If you noticed the down move had begun around mid-May and jumped out of the market then, you'd have missed the next 1000 pips down, along with the other 4500 pips in day trading pips. Seriously, think before you say this stuff!
  • #62
  • Aug 9, 2017 10:51pm Aug 9, 2017 10:51pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote}It is the bias which is important. If you trade the bias it is likely that you will over time overperform the market (beta) and achieve alpha.....but the question is how to discriminate between noise and momentum with enduring substance?
Another great post that I keep for future reference. That million dollar question, imagine from the perspective of the day trader, this group expresses confidence they're on the alpha trail. I'm missing a lot don't I ?
  • #63
  • Aug 9, 2017 10:55pm Aug 9, 2017 10:55pm
Quoting skyway
{quote} Another great post that I keep for future reference. That million dollar question, imagine from the perspective of the day trader, this group expresses confidence they're on the alpha trail. I'm missing a lot don't I ?
Yep mate. Like the effects of compounding interest, it is a very fine line between under-performance and over-performance. Alpha takes some time to become obvious.
  • #64
  • Aug 10, 2017 12:09am Aug 10, 2017 12:09am
" a bend is your friend"

then

" the trend is your friend"


when the bend is seen, that is a signal for new trend forming.

The problem of all traders is to catch the trend from its beginning point...

Well...... .here is the answer to this fatal point ..................... " a bend is your friend"
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #65
  • Aug 10, 2017 8:54am Aug 10, 2017 8:54am
Quoting Samer1970
" a bend is your friend" then " the trend is your friend" when the bend is seen, that is a signal for new trend forming. The problem of all traders is to catch the trend from its beginning point... Well...... .here is the answer to this fatal point ..................... " a bend is your friend"
The bend is a low risk entry point but you need to be disciplined to trade that cause most bends are corrections. If you do it right expect to be right one in 4 or 5 attempts. But gigantic profits
Special one
  • #66
  • Aug 10, 2017 9:39am Aug 10, 2017 9:39am
Quoting Darastonius
The trend is your best friend in the markets. One of the greatest edge for a retail trader. Yet almost nobody can trade a trend. At least I can't remember an occasion on this forum, when I saw somebody being able to trade with the trend properly. This is how you should trade a trend. Personally this is pretty much what I'm doing. Green is where you buy, red is your stop. {image} Yet what everybody tries to do? Wait for confirmation, and buy the breakout. {image} Not a problem, still works fine in a trend like this. {image} But the market trends...

or perhaps even..........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: or perhaps.JPG Size: 36 KB
  • #67
  • Aug 10, 2017 9:45am Aug 10, 2017 9:45am
Quoting dagoods
{quote} or perhaps even.......... {image}
That is the best way to go broke, you have to buy at the high.
Special one
  • #68
  • Aug 10, 2017 10:15am Aug 10, 2017 10:15am
Quoting TradeGenuis
{quote} That is the best way to go broke, you have to buy at the high.
To each his own.
  • #69
  • Aug 10, 2017 10:22am Aug 10, 2017 10:22am
Quoting dagoods
{quote} To each his own.
Yes but dont buy stocks like in the chart above, that's an amateur play.
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  • #70
  • Aug 10, 2017 11:47am Aug 10, 2017 11:47am
Quoting TradeGenuis
{quote} That is the best way to go broke, you have to buy at the high.
The trend is not your friend.
That is the best way to go broke.
Both amateur statements.
  • #71
  • Aug 10, 2017 12:53pm Aug 10, 2017 12:53pm
Quoting The-Flipper
{quote} LOL
I guess its like religion (as someone i respect a lot once said as an analogy).

Everybody is shouting 'mine is correct, yours is nonsense', yet the common demoninator in religion is 'love one another and love god'.

Everybody is shouting 'my method is correct, yours is nonsense', yet the common denominator is 'timing your plays with bias and momentum'.

For everything else? sticks and stones.

ps: im not religious.
  • #72
  • Aug 11, 2017 2:20pm Aug 11, 2017 2:20pm
Quoting TradeGenuis
Agree or disagree? Personally it took me several years to understand this. I Agree and will till I stop breathing, nobody believed in trend following like I did, and I can say boldly most of the times it doesn't work and I don't like spending most of my times in draw downs as most moves retrace. Trends are so rare and few these days, before one shows up you have already been so smashed and beaten up emotionally.
The trend ain't your friend because you bought when the market has reached it peaked, decreasing in momentum/volatility where instead you should buy it duriing the contraction in momentum and volatility which in the end will end up with an explosive move (trend).
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #73
  • Aug 11, 2017 3:45pm Aug 11, 2017 3:45pm
I am not against trend following, and I am not saying that it's impossible to make money trend following. What I am saying is, it's very hard to do. Markets trend 15% of the time. 85% they mean revert. That means the probability of a move fading is close to 85%, and it implies the trend is not your friend most of the times. The single biggest mistake I made in my trading career was clinging on to wins too long and seeing them fade away most times. With courage and patience you will eventually have a big profit when a trend does manifest. But Guess what, you will most likely not be around.

So my advice is to always sell too soon, remember pigs get slaughtered.
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  • #74
  • Aug 11, 2017 3:56pm Aug 11, 2017 3:56pm
So long as you're in profit, trend or no-trend doesn't matter at all.
Enter Signature
  • #75
  • Aug 12, 2017 9:14pm Aug 12, 2017 9:14pm
Some thoughts:
Apparently you find that there are enough counter-trend movements worth trading. If a trend has enough significant counter-trend movements, then it is not a very strong trend. Maybe that's partly a condition of today's Forex market. Brexit, Quantitive Easing, and the current U.S. Fed's preference for a low Dollar don't help create strong trends.
There are numerous trading systems posted on this site which intend to carefully spot when a trend is strong enough for you to enter- they avoid trading reversals.
I thought that institutional traders were mostly trend traders and that trading against the trend is often a formula for failure. The market is conformist.
If you trade the trend, your trades will be less subject to stop-loss hunting.
Occasionally a counter-trend movement may be quickly reversed by some unforeseen news.
  • #76
  • Last Post: Aug 12, 2017 9:45pm Aug 12, 2017 9:45pm
One of my favorite quotes is that of nathan rothschild. I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. Depicting that the trend is not your friend.
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