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  • #41
  • Aug 8, 2017 8:30pm Aug 8, 2017 8:30pm
Quoting TradeGenuis
Agree or disagree? Personally it took me several years to understand this. I Agree and will till I stop breathing, nobody believed in trend following like I did, and I can say boldly most of the times it doesn't work and I don't like spending most of my times in draw downs as most moves retrace. Trends are so rare and few these days, before one shows up you have already been so smashed and beaten up emotionally.
Shut down MT4, turn off your computer, and go get a job.
  • #42
  • Aug 8, 2017 8:54pm Aug 8, 2017 8:54pm
where do I go on the site to practice ? Cant seem to find it again
  • #43
  • Aug 8, 2017 9:20pm Aug 8, 2017 9:20pm
Quoting Samer1970
{quote} TWO OPPOSITE TRADES, ONE SMALL AND ONE LARGE, IF THE SMALL MAKES -VE PROFIT, HE IS MAKING LARGER TRADE IN OPPOSITE SIDE AFTER FEW PIPS FROM OPENING THE FIRST ONE, AND THEN HE WAITS THAT BOTH ARE TOTAL SUM OF BUY ANS ELL ARE GREATER THAN A VALUE IN HIS SYSTEM IN gbp , THEN THE EA WILL CLOSE BOTH TRADES.
All one has to do is to net down to a break even the losing trade. It could be even turned into a profitable trade as well. This is not difficult. And does not require any multipliers or insane martingale strategies.

That is precisely why hedging is the greatest trading strategy. But most, if not all here at FF, does not seem to understand that..

I am speaking too much! ha-ha-ha! Good buy or good sell from me for now!
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #44
  • Aug 8, 2017 9:21pm Aug 8, 2017 9:21pm
Quoting TradeGenuis
1.Trend following is an average strategy 2.It produces returns with a lot of draw downs 3.Comes in and out of favor. 4.Most people won't stomach it's cyclicality. Let me ask you guys, will you want a system averaging 20% a month with occasional draw-downs of 20-40%, or a system averaging 20% a month with occasional draw-downs of 5-10%. Base on this I think trend following is not an effective strategy.
Whether you trade the trend or counter-trend, in and of itself, has little bearing on your susceptibility to drawdown. The amount to which you endure drawdown is a function of risk/reward and win rate.
  • #45
  • Aug 8, 2017 10:09pm Aug 8, 2017 10:09pm
Quoting ryder
{quote} shut down mt4, turn off your computer, and go get a job.

he he he --- really it is a very good and strong reply


i wrote b4 few minutes in another post something similar :

Stop trading, go to kitchen - prepare pasta and cook meat better than trading forex/
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #46
  • Aug 8, 2017 10:45pm Aug 8, 2017 10:45pm
There are only 2 friends in the market.
Their names are bias and momentum.

If you are not able to trade WITH them, then you are always doomed.
  • #47
  • Aug 9, 2017 12:11am Aug 9, 2017 12:11am
Quoting The-Flipper
There are only 2 friends in the market. Their names are bias and momentum. If you are not able to trade WITH them, then you are always doomed.
The third is levels. You'll also be doomed if you fight battles anywhere, everywhere.
  • #48
  • Aug 9, 2017 3:43am Aug 9, 2017 3:43am
Quoting hanover
{quote}For better or worse, a retail trader lacking analysis tools capable of detecting impending bias has little choice other than to 'react'. Conversely, a professional trader with access to information and tools that potentially lead price is in a position to make genuine predictions. There's nothing inherently wrong with having a directional bias, so long as you're flexible enough to adjust your view as your info/tools dictate. Every trader must nonetheless commit to a directional position -- long or short -- and regardless of whether he chooses...
Relevant:

"Experts are worse than coin toss in predicting":

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-in...ng-forecasters
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #49
  • Edited 8:06am Aug 9, 2017 5:24am | Edited 8:06am
Quoting TradeGenuis
1.Trend following is an average strategy 2.It produces returns with a lot of draw downs 3.Comes in and out of favor. 4.Most people won't stomach it's cyclicality. Let me ask you guys, will you want a system averaging 20% a month with occasional draw-downs of 20-40%, or a system averaging 20% a month with occasional draw-downs of 5-10%. Base on this I think trend following is not an effective strategy.
That's purely your opinion, the fact the you refer to trend following as a strategy in its self is ridiculous and proves your naivety. Trend following is the basis on which to create a strategy not the whole strategy. What makes a strategy is combination of indicators/S+P/Money management/ Risk management/ experience... and so on. I don't understand what your talking about when it comes to drawdown, your giving no evidence just specualtion that doesnt seem to make much sense.
I think your username needs changing.
  • #50
  • Aug 9, 2017 5:48am Aug 9, 2017 5:48am
Quoting Ryder
{quote} Shut down MT4, turn off your computer, and go get a job.
Right!
A person not always can fit profession he chose.
He/she has to be honest with himself to admit it one day.
You should fall, before you stand up!
  • #51
  • Aug 9, 2017 6:08am Aug 9, 2017 6:08am
Quoting Ramadas
Relevant: "Experts are worse than coin toss in predicting": http://www.etf.com/sections/index-in...ng-forecasters
Thanks for sharing. There are some big name gurus in their list.
  • #52
  • Aug 9, 2017 6:45am Aug 9, 2017 6:45am
in my opinion no one can time 100 per right direction just follow current condition. equilibrium and non equilibrium two common definition of market condition.we cannot time the market but we can anticipate.most of us fails because we follows indicator and gurus signal but basic thing is to learn structure and psychology of crowd then we can anticipate trending or non trending market.the true fact is most money is made in trending market so trend is our friend but failure is process in every new business and success comes when we learn our mistakes, if we can anticipate trending or non trending condition 50 to 60 per of time it,s perfect not just good.
  • #53
  • Aug 9, 2017 10:35am Aug 9, 2017 10:35am
Quoting skyway
{quote} The third is levels.
LOL
  • #54
  • Aug 9, 2017 10:56am Aug 9, 2017 10:56am
Quoting Darastonius
The trend is your best friend in the markets. One of the greatest edge for a retail trader. Yet almost nobody can trade a trend. At least I can't remember an occasion on this forum, when I saw somebody being able to trade with the trend properly. This is how you should trade a trend. Personally this is pretty much what I'm doing. Green is where you buy, red is your stop. {image} Yet what everybody tries to do? Wait for confirmation, and buy the breakout. {image} Not a problem, still works fine in a trend like this. {image} But the market trends...

Problem is your stops will be ran...lby the big boys...who read the same chart and are waiting for those stop orders to be placed......big boys live on retalier meat.
  • #55
  • Aug 9, 2017 2:18pm Aug 9, 2017 2:18pm
Trends exist.
Fact. Verifiable with market charts.

Trading along with the direction of the prevalent trend alone doesn't guarantee profitability of trades.
Fact. Verifiable with losing trades, most of which are badly timed trades, even though they are made in the direction of the main trend.

Profitability of a trade depends mainly on your market timing, trade managing skills and many other factors.
Fact.

Whether the trend is a friend or not...
It's just a belief/disbelief.
I guess that is why 'pointless' threads like this can exist. People argue over beliefs, clinging to them as if they are facts.

'I trade against the trend. I am profitable. But I have difficulty getting into good trades and lose money every time I try to trade with the trend, therefore the trend is not my friend (or anyone else's friend for that matter - LOL).'

Notice how silly that is?

Traders trade their beliefs, based on what they believe about the market.
If a certain belief helps you to trade profitably, good. If it doesn't help you, dump it. Common sense.
But it's silly to attack another trader's beliefs just because they are different from yours, even if your beliefs serve you well.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #56
  • Aug 9, 2017 4:37pm Aug 9, 2017 4:37pm
Quoting dkrock
Interesting posts. In essence, a trend trade is a sample size of candles that are heading in the same overall direction. Since I prefer to use indicators, then the larger my sample size, the better I can see market behavior. I create my own trends by converting higher time frame range trades into lower time frame trend trades. A 3 candle range trade on a 1 HR chart is a 36 candle trend trade on a 5M chart. The more you see, the more you know, and the higher your probability is for success. I would not recommend trading contrarian since you can only...
hi dkrock,

many traders are confused mainly the new joining members for how to to find the trend
well
i will summarize here my points from my own exp for how to find the trend

a trend is a move for the price in one direction for "some time"
if you are opening 1 min chart, it might be for example a move for 400 points = 40 pips
if for the same pair you open for example 15 min chart the move is 700 points = 70 pips

so it depends firstly on which chart you are trading

therefore, how to draw a trend. well, i found b4 few days back a trader mentioned it by "a bend is your friend" so i would sy.. yes true... any bend in the ma producing long follow up for the price on any chart is a trend

now, how to draw the trend

well, the forex scientists and gurus and losers till today did not agree on one method to draw the trend, but the amazing thing is that, any trend line to be drawn must have moving average some where and somehow,....so

if you draw any moving average on any chart time frame any - then you will get an indication about the trend

ok ok

not any period... yes true.... 5 period is not good 10 to 300 peiord will not show the real trend... yes sir, try 500 period, try 900 period.. on price close and simple ( not exp. not lw, not smooth)


see the chart here under

ma 900 on 5 min chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 66 KB
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #57
  • Aug 9, 2017 4:51pm Aug 9, 2017 4:51pm
the au trend since few days --- it is down side trend on 5 min chart, the bend is clear and the change in direction is clear

therefore , all trades in sell are stronger in trades in buy

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 66 KB
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #58
  • Aug 9, 2017 5:03pm Aug 9, 2017 5:03pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Sure. If you are looking for it, but don't know what it is, you might feel stress. It is simply a bunch of candles moving in the same overall direction. I use semaphores to help me readily see the market highs/lows. If you do not, then look for previous highs/lows and draw a line to connect them. When the line was heading up, the trend was up. If price turned and started heading down, now the trend is down. Vice versa. The trend direction is the opposite direction of the last "dominant" high/low in your trading view. The smaller high/lows...
true but drawing lines between tops is still moving average

here is another example for my friends
az

it is up trend regardless the correction to down done

i made buy for now

i will wait few hours to begin collecting profits

there are few sell wrong trades i make them b4 few days back, np. we can stand up the heat
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 114 KB
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #59
  • Aug 9, 2017 5:31pm Aug 9, 2017 5:31pm
You need to identify a new trend before most of the market does, that means you are trying to pick turning points or (contrary to the previous prevailing trend). The moment it become apparent that we are in a new trend is when to get out. The hardest part for me is to determine what the last fool wants to pay.
Special one
  • #60
  • Edited Aug 10, 2017 12:21am Aug 9, 2017 9:56pm | Edited Aug 10, 2017 12:21am
Quoting TradeGenuis
You need to identify a new trend before most of the market does, that means you are trying to pick turning points or (contrary to the previous prevailing trend). The moment it become apparent that we are in a new trend is when to get out. The hardest part for me is to determine what the last fool wants to pay.
Here is a random price series.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture1.JPG Size: 28 KB


Can you see trends? Are they fake trends arising from the plot of random price or does the price series display directional momentum with autocorrelation?

If you trade every pattern that looks like this then it is likely that you will over time underperform attributed to the frictional costs of trading. You may be lucky for a few years and post great performance results...but in the end the Law of Large numbers will get you.

Here is a biased random price series

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture2.JPG Size: 31 KB


Can you see trends? Are they fake trends arising from the plot of random price or does the price series display directional momentum with autocorrelation?

Here are the two compared side by side.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture3.JPG Size: 36 KB


Can you see trends? Are they fake trends arising from the plot of random price or does the price series display directional momentum with autocorrelation?

You might find when you mull this over that the 'true trend' with autocorrelation is the variance between the random series and the random price series with drift. It is the bias which is important.

If you trade the bias it is likely that you will over time overperform the market (beta) and achieve alpha.....but the question is how to discriminate between noise and momentum with enduring substance?

I think that most folk who trade trends think they are trading a trend of enduring substance when in fact they are most likely trading noise. To avoid the heartache with trend following you need a way to at least attempt to discern between what is noise of an efficient market and a trend of enduring substance driven by autocorrelation (or repetitive correlated participant behaviour)....and yes the markets are becoming more and more efficient with the rise and rise of algo's....so the game of trend following is getting tougher. There are some new and emerging markets where trend following shines such as the cryptocurrencies but in general the game is getting harder on the short term.....and we are becoming more prone to over-trading symptoms (trading fake signals)

Step out to the longer term if you want a better chance of long term survival or start diversifying like a Boss. There have been some great recent trends such as the recent USDCAD move and of course the DJI or S&P500 which is still going strong. You would not want to be cherry picking the tops and bottoms of these great moves as you would be eating humble pie stepping in front of these momentum moves of substance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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By stepping out to where the fat tails lie you need to avoid the daily churn of volatility like the plague otherwise you will become just another market victim. Diversify to increase your trade frequency and place your pending order entries well outside normal volatility limits to force price to come to you. A single instrument may only have 0-3 good trends of substance a year. You must diversify to increase your trade frequency otherwise it is a very long wait between drinks.

Stop trying to pick bottoms and tops of noise and start catching the meat of the trend with real momentum.
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