Causation's Price Action Journal

Documenting some ideas

H4

One or two of these a day would be nice.

Lining up smaller time frame pockets of orders with the bigger picture in mind.

Daily


M5

EURNZD

Daily


M15

Scalping buys on AJ, see how PA reacts @ marked reaction zone ~76.47

GN short positioning. Created the idea on HTF (H4/M30). Analysing LTF to try and capture high R:R.

Price was held at 3. Frankfurt has run stops above the Asian session high. Waiting for M5 supply to print in this reaction zone. Ultimately waiting and watching H4 for if there is to be direction change for buying. For now it points down, mindful of HTF Daily demand which has not yet been engulfed.

No bueno on AJ

EURAUD Selling. Ideally looking for lower lows on the daily chart on this plan.

AUDUSD Idea. H4 buyers still in control.

This one is a little captain hindsight, it moved so quickly when I spotted it. Took profit for most of it @ 1:3 Risk:Reward.

GA scalp idea

I have been doing some reflecting over the past week and refined my goals and plans towards my trading that I believe will lead to profitability. I have also put some thinking into how I wish to document my trading online, I am motivated by good trading and consistent results.

For now I will only post the post-trade view when I have some downtime from the markets. If and when I find the capacity to post in the moment trading I will. Know that I have a 30-40% win ratio. At 3R this allows for some growth, for example if I take 10 trades in a day and only win 3 of them, I can still take 2R for the day, short of the daily goal but in the positive less broker costs of course. I have the goal to take +3R from the market each day and to improve the win ratio, but I am fine with it all the same for now.

3R seems to be the sweet spot for taking profit on trades with the style that I have developed over time. In the past I have tried to take the counter signal as an exit, but was noticing that I wasn't getting consistent results and it has taken quite a bit of reflection to accept that something had to change. One of the key things I have had to come to terms with is that I need to get out of my own way as much as possible.

Some 3R trades that I have taken so far this week.

EURJPY Short
EURJPY Long

EURAUD Shorts

GBPNZD Short

AUDCHF Short

AUDJPY Long

I'm short S&P 500, long AU and NU. Sitting & waiting is what I find can be the hardest part of trading. Waiting for price to reach a reaction area, waiting for price to hit a stop loss, waiting for price to hit a take profit, waiting for the weekend to be over so I can trade again.

In the past I have self destructed with over trading due to the whole not wanting to wait thing. It has taken a while, but I am getting better at waiting...

EURAUD Short


Even though the duration of this trade was only 11 minutes. It took time (hours) for the market to establish itself below the line, alert me on approach, the signal and setup to form and then waiting for the execution. I just had to wait and wait, until something formed that made sense and had 3R opportunity along with probability.

US500 Short

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Sometimes the market will often offer a lot more. I think as part of future iterations of my trading growth I will know when to hold on for a bit more. I imagine it will be driven by the higher time frame analysis of an H4 or Daily chart. For now I am happy to take 3R and pay for the next 3 mistakes (or the past 3).

AUDUSD Long


I was a bit lucky on this one. I would have preferred a deeper retrace past the yellow line on this one, but I took it anyway according to my plan and the M30 pinbar signalling the way. I also had reduced odds of this one working out due to the red zone I had marked acting as a cap on price.

I had a similar setup form on NZDUSD which actually looked nicer from afar, which turned into a failure.

GBPUSD Short


Took a couple of losses going for long on JPY. Will wait for further opportunities.
Thankfully taking this GU trade made up for the bad trades.