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US Current Account / US TIC

  • #21
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:54am Sep 18, 2006 7:54am
Quoting ngdaniel
Bloomberg is announcing that someone tried to break into the White House today.

Maybe the poor guy had a bad forex trade.

Guys...I might be missing for a while.....
  • #22
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:57am Sep 18, 2006 7:57am
Quoting BurgerKing
I have no idea how TIC moves; but do you think it will move the forex???
Historically, the US TIC does move the prices by about 20-30 pips. Over the years this report has been less looked at. I feel it is a mistake to overlook this report.
  • #23
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:00am Sep 18, 2006 8:00am
I was late to enter the market. No information on this news so i was totally clueless what to do...

Will take a note on this for later.
  • #24
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:02am Sep 18, 2006 8:02am
Quoting ngdaniel
Historically, the US TIC does move the prices by about 20-30 pips. Over the years this report has been less looked at. I feel it is a mistake to overlook this report.
See what I mean, BK. On the USD/CAD, 20 pips within 30 seconds. This time I had the right direction, not like the CAD report.

The CAD report recovered and I made a 4 pip profit but I wasn't going to miss the US TIC.
  • #25
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:08am Sep 18, 2006 8:08am
Quoting ngdaniel
Historically, the US TIC does move the prices by about 20-30 pips. Over the years this report has been less looked at. I feel it is a mistake to overlook this report.
yeah we should have had an orange factory on the TIC report (instead of yellow), but that jump was not expected. the actual was WAY off the forecast and thats probably why there was such a spike.
Relax and be happy.
  • #26
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:16am Sep 18, 2006 8:16am
Quoting merlin
yeah we should have had an orange factory on the TIC report (instead of yellow), but that jump was not expected. the actual was WAY off the forecast and thats probably why there was such a spike.
Merlin, Thought you weren't going to show this morning. Then again, a lot of error problems this morning on the forum and you seem to live on FF.

I agree. The US TIC should be orange. I have trade history since 2004 to show the TIC has moved prices.
  • #27
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:18am Sep 18, 2006 8:18am
yeah the site is crashing when the reports are released, because there are hundreds of people refreshing the site to get the actual. that is crashing the site we need to figure out a solution here....
Relax and be happy.
  • #28
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:22am Sep 18, 2006 8:22am
Quote
From experience, if you get a move of around 25 to 30 pips this can be a prime candidate for fading (trading in the opposite direction).
Hah, exactly as I expected. Now, who followed these words of wisdom?

Answer: Not me!
"Always bet on black"
  • #29
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:28am Sep 18, 2006 8:28am
Who are these crazies flooding the site just for the headline number...maybe they can get together and buy a Bloomberg machine?
"Always bet on black"
  • #30
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:37am Sep 18, 2006 8:37am
Quoting merlin
yeah the site is crashing when the reports are released, because there are hundreds of people refreshing the site to get the actual. that is crashing the site we need to figure out a solution here....

From now on I'll be the only one getting the update and I'll pass it along to the rest as soon as I've finished placing my trade....

Other sites have had to stop updating their calenders anywhere timely so that their members know that clicking refresh 300 times in one minute isn't going to get them that data.
  • #31
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:44am Sep 18, 2006 8:44am
In the past few months the TIC report was WAY off concensus. This month is no exception (i think last month the TIC numbers were good, but the dollar went down). TIC is hard to predict, why cant the analysist get this one right?

Also merlin, you should have a donation option so that peeps who want to contribute for updates of servers (and internet/ computer stuff i dont know about) can help the site out. Just a thought to help with the hundreds of peeps who come here all at the same time.
  • #32
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:50am Sep 18, 2006 8:50am
Quoting hunter101
In the past few months the TIC report was WAY off concensus. This month is no exception (i think last month the TIC numbers were good, but the dollar went down). TIC is hard to predict, why cant the analysist get this one right?

Also merlin, you should have a donation option so that peeps who want to contribute for updates of servers (and internet/ computer stuff i dont know about) can help the site out. Just a thought to help with the hundreds of peeps who come here all at the same time.
Hi:

You have to take in consideration the the whole market to trade the TIC last month the was realy good you r right but it was interest rate season. so when the TIC is very good it makes the trade balance lass affective. so it came out very good so it made the interest rate hike in regards to the trade balance a smaller chance.

Yankey
  • #33
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:52am Sep 18, 2006 8:52am
Quoting Yakovzvi
Hi:

You have to take in consideration the the whole market to trade the TIC last month the was realy good you r right but it was interest rate season. so when the TIC is very good it makes the trade balance lass affective. so it came out very good so it made the interest rate hike in regards to the trade balance a smaller chance.

Yankey
Trade Balance : Money going out frome the USA
TIC : Money comming in to the USA
  • #34
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:57am Sep 18, 2006 8:57am
Hi hunter, Compared to a lot of economic series, TIC forecasts are generally more difficult to model. You also have to be very cautious with the consensus number, as the Bloomberg headline forecast number can be a little is misleading. I say this because if you drill down beyond the headline you will see that only a handful of analysts tend to provide the forecasts for TIC data (last time I looked), and their forecasts are very wide-ranging. The headline average is therefore far less meaningful than for other consensus number.

If you look at the details, one big thing that stands out is severly reduced demand for treasuries from abroad. This is a bad signal for the bond market, and has prompted a bit of selling. So, while you have a bad number in terms of financing the US deficit (USD -ive), the impact of less demand for treasuries has pushed rates higher (a little), which in turn can be thought of as dollar positive. That may help to explain the retrace after the event. It certainly highlights the value of looking beyond the headline data, and thinking through the possible FX reactions from the different scenarios in the data.
"Always bet on black"
  • #35
  • Sep 18, 2006 9:04am Sep 18, 2006 9:04am
Quoting hunter101
In the past few months the TIC report was WAY off concensus. This month is no exception (i think last month the TIC numbers were good, but the dollar went down). TIC is hard to predict, why cant the analysist get this one right?

Also merlin, you should have a donation option so that peeps who want to contribute for updates of servers (and internet/ computer stuff i dont know about) can help the site out. Just a thought to help with the hundreds of peeps who come here all at the same time.
LOL well i appriciate your donation idea but i think we have it covered our servers are very robust right now, but having hundreds of people super-refreshing all at once is something that needs to be handled with a design change. not sure how to solve this, but im sure the guys will figure it out. sorry for the inconvenience!
Relax and be happy.
  • #36
  • Sep 18, 2006 9:07am Sep 18, 2006 9:07am
Quoting Yakovzvi
Trade Balance : Money going out frome the USA
TIC : Money comming in to the USA
not necessarily...trade balance has to do with the trade of goods and services, the TIC is about how much stocks, bonds etc that other countries bought. a low TIC, as we saw today, means that few people are buying US securities, that is a bad sign because it hints that the US is not a great investment at the moment.
Relax and be happy.
  • #37
  • Sep 18, 2006 9:08am Sep 18, 2006 9:08am
Quoting abobtrader
If you look at the details, one big thing that stands out is severly reduced demand for treasuries from abroad. This is a bad signal for the bond market, and has prompted a bit of selling. So, while you have a bad number in terms of financing the US deficit (USD -ive), the impact of less demand for treasuries has pushed rates higher (a little), which in turn can be thought of as dollar positive. That may help to explain the retrace after the event. It certainly highlights the value of looking beyond the headline data, and thinking through the possible FX reactions from the different scenarios in the data.
i love this guy!!
Relax and be happy.
  • #38
  • Sep 18, 2006 9:10am Sep 18, 2006 9:10am
Hah, thanks Merlin!

---

If the balance of trade 'balances' (and by definition it does), what does the fx mkt care what the number is?

The game is not as obvious as it seems.

I am going to my cave to ponder the above.

"Always bet on black"
  • #39
  • Sep 18, 2006 9:13am Sep 18, 2006 9:13am
well, the higher the exports, the more dollars are needed to buy the exports. this created dollar demand, which is bullish. so even if the trade balance is at zero, it is still bullish if it goes negative, because that means greater exports and greater demand for dollars.
Relax and be happy.
  • #40
  • Sep 18, 2006 9:33am Sep 18, 2006 9:33am
Quoting merlin
LOL well i appriciate your donation idea but i think we have it covered our servers are very robust right now, but having hundreds of people super-refreshing all at once is something that needs to be handled with a design change. not sure how to solve this, but im sure the guys will figure it out. sorry for the inconvenience!
Coupla ideas: ajax, not for cleaning, but a technology to load page elements without loading the whole page.

Another technology is comet, which actually pushes the data from your server, so people can just wait and don't need to refresh. This one is cutting edge, may be a few years before you find someone who knows how to program it though.

I'm sure your technicians can tell you why they will or won't work.
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