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The trend is not your friend...

  • #21
  • Aug 8, 2017 8:09am Aug 8, 2017 8:09am
There are two types of periods. (it´s basic)
Trends and Sideways.

Regardless of whether a trader trades one or the other period or even both ... you are your own friend or enemy.

Dont blame the trend ... or the sideways periods.
The funniest, is that nobody takes me seriously.
  • #22
  • Aug 8, 2017 8:16am Aug 8, 2017 8:16am
wish profit is our friend
  • #23
  • Aug 8, 2017 8:19am Aug 8, 2017 8:19am
Quoting Bsmile44
{quote} You can make money trading against or with. It doesn't matter either the market is trending down or up. Unless you limit the pairs you trade to only 1 or 2 there will always a pair in FX that is trending either up or down. Jesse Livermore was the king at catching the switch in the trend being contrarian when needed and trend following when needed. Its beyond stupid to try to fit every or any one market under one set of circumstances. If you can't see the trend, go up in your TF until you do.
That's the point, the minute the trend becomes evident, the chart is eventually telling you that you are late.
Special one
  • #24
  • Aug 8, 2017 8:20am Aug 8, 2017 8:20am
You make money by forecasting the unseen, not the seen. The obvious is obviously wrong. Off course I am well aware that trend followers make money, but their fortune depends on overdone and extended trends. The market overstretches about 15% of the time, That means the rest of the times you are either breaking even or loosing. So we have to profit from the trend not profit with the trend.The wise traders know what I am talking about.
Special one
  • #25
  • Aug 8, 2017 8:56am Aug 8, 2017 8:56am
Well you don't get rich by investing in the apparent
Special one
  • #26
  • Aug 8, 2017 10:11am Aug 8, 2017 10:11am
I don’t know what other feels or know, but for me. I feel that trend is my friend as if I am not following the trend then I will have obvious issues and problems. So, we need to trust following trend, as that’s the only thing we can really depend and feel worthy enough to follow. If we are not careful with how we go about following trend then we will have a lot of issues!
  • #27
  • Aug 8, 2017 10:21am Aug 8, 2017 10:21am
Tame the trend

DON"T FIGHT THE TAPE
Frank Fadi
  • #28
  • Aug 8, 2017 10:41am Aug 8, 2017 10:41am
Talking losers, 90%+ of mine are from times I tried to call a top or bottom too soon attempting to trade contrarian to what I believed to be the trend.

"Trend" is kind of a loaded concept though... if you take a dozen traders they may all disagree as to when a trend is established. To some it may be a moving average, to others it may be a break of momentum, to some a violation of a supply or demand zones, others simply follow Dow theory or Elliot Waves...

I think "trend" has become so ambiguous it is a misnomer at this point. We can blame all of our losses or all of our wins on the trend because hindsight is always 20/20 but the trend is rarely obvious.
  • #29
  • Aug 8, 2017 11:02am Aug 8, 2017 11:02am
Quoting KeenPips
Imho, the bend is your friend when it continues to trend. Trade safe and prosper. KP
true
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #30
  • Aug 8, 2017 11:29am Aug 8, 2017 11:29am
Trend traders decision-making doesnt implicate discretion, presumptions, gut feelings, or intuitions. Its not day trading or buy and hope. It doesnt involve passive indexing, in and out trading, or fundamental analysis. No 24-hour news cycles, daily turbulence, or sensational hype. Market trends are always happening, trending up and down. The trend trader reacts to the trend but certainly not anticipates the beginning or end of a trend, only acting when the trend changes.

Trend traders try to compound absolute returns. Trend traders always have distinct exit protocols to regulate management of trades executed. Stop losses and proper leverage usage are standard practice. They take advantage of other traders panicky mob behavior. Strict discipline minimizes behavioral biases. It solves the eagerness to realize gains and reluctance to crystallize losses. Theres a presence of following strict scientific principles. They follow a process, not an outcome, because of rigid rules based around numbers. Trends aid to be adaptable to differing climates and environments performing best during periods of rising volatility and uncertainty.

Trend Trading or the Trend itself may be worth befriending, But it's just not my friend.
  • #31
  • Aug 8, 2017 12:16pm Aug 8, 2017 12:16pm
what's wrong with you lol, if you trade against the trand you're trading against the "fat tails", hence you're likely to lose in the long term, as simple as that.

You remind me of myself when I was a noob 7 years ago, here's my first FF account, my nickname was "smartone", well I wasn't really smart... just a noob pretending to be smart.

p.s. to the FF staff: I had to register a new one because I lost my password
  • #32
  • Aug 8, 2017 12:44pm Aug 8, 2017 12:44pm
Quoting TradeGenuis
You make money by forecasting the unseen, not the seen. The obvious is obviously wrong. Off course I am well aware that trend followers make money, but their fortune depends on overdone and extended trends. The market overstretches about 15% of the time, That means the rest of the times you are either breaking even or loosing. So we have to profit from the trend not profit with the trend.The wise traders know what I am talking about.

I strongly disagree with you. I trade sideways action as well as long term trends. During sideways action, Price is just trending in the short term between two areas. whether thats just a few days or a few hours it doesn't matter. Patience is your best friend either way. As well if you're identifying a trend change by indicators I'd say you definitely don't use the best analysis in spotting a trend or spotting when it changes. I'm done beating a dead drum. Good luck with your trading journey. To everyone else, learn how to read PA, indicators should only be used to confirm what PRICE MOVEMENT is telling you.
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #33
  • Aug 8, 2017 12:57pm Aug 8, 2017 12:57pm
There is a quite rich German trader here at FF. Can't share his nickname. But if you can trust me? He explained me once he is taking double profits. Double in a meaning of taking TPs in both directions. Unfortunately, he did not share how exactly he is doing the double profits thing...

My observations are the trend TPs are about 3 times bigger (as a ratio), when compared to the counter trend TPs. Still, a very nice approach the double profit it is... If you know how to save the ass of a losing trade?
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #34
  • Aug 8, 2017 1:33pm Aug 8, 2017 1:33pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 111 KB

The trend in a chart is from beginning to the end: in this case is uptrend.
Trend can be fiend, and can be enemy. Sometimes is to late to enter into trend.
I have read somewhere the first candle and the seventh candle is the most expensive one
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #35
  • Aug 8, 2017 1:55pm Aug 8, 2017 1:55pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
There is a quite rich German trader here at FF. Can't share his nickname. But if you can trust me? He explained me once he is taking double profits. Double in a meaning of taking TPs in both directions. Unfortunately, he did not share how exactly he is doing the double profits thing... My observations are the trend TPs are about 3 times bigger (as a ratio), when compared to the counter trend TPs. Still, a very nice approach the double profit it is... If you know how to save the ass of a losing trade?

THERE IS A MECHANICAL TRADER HERE IN FF, AT WHICH I FORGET HIS NAME AND I DO NOT KNOW HIS NEW NAME , HE CAN MAKE TRADES WITHOUT CHARTS

I WILL GIVE AN EXAMPLE

AND HE DOESNOT USE TREND AS PER OUR UNDERSTANDINGS, BUT AS PER HIS METHOD, TWO OPPOSITE TRADES, ONE SMALL AND ONE LARGE, IF THE SMALL MAKES -VE PROFIT, HE IS MAKING LARGER TRADE IN OPPOSITE SIDE AFTER FEW PIPS FROM OPENING THE FIRST ONE, AND THEN HE WAITS THAT BOTH ARE TOTAL SUM OF BUY ANS ELL ARE GREATER THAN A VALUE IN HIS SYSTEM IN gbp , THEN THE EA WILL CLOSE BOTH TRADES.


I HAVE TRIED THIS METHOD, IT DOES NOT NEED TREND AT ALL, BUT ACTUALLY IT IS A TREND SYSTEM, BCZ THE +VE TRADE IS FOLLOWIG THE TREND AFTER THE -VE ONE FAILD ....

And i think we are speaking about the same trader
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #36
  • Aug 8, 2017 2:14pm Aug 8, 2017 2:14pm
Quoting TradeGenuis
You make money by forecasting the unseen
I know I'm going to come off as a know-it-all by saying this so emphatically, but that statement couldn't be any further from the truth. It is 100% dead wrong and the reason why so many traders never turn the corner. Talk to any successful trader (in any market) and they will tell you that they do not try to predict what is coming next. They react to what is happening in the now.

The problem with predicting is that it generates an expectation which leads to emotional pain when you are wrong. Too much of that can damage your trading psyche beyond repair. Winning traders do not have expectations of what the market is going to do.
  • #37
  • Aug 8, 2017 3:29pm Aug 8, 2017 3:29pm
price goes up or down, trend goes up or or down, range goes up or down, it doesnt matter what you trade, trend or range differents side of the same coin, as someone here here said, only the profit is your friend.
  • #38
  • Aug 8, 2017 3:56pm Aug 8, 2017 3:56pm
Quoting Nico1359
I know I'm going to come off as a know-it-all by saying this so emphatically, but that statement couldn't be any further from the truth.......
The problem with predicting is that it generates an expectation which leads to emotional pain when you are wrong. Too much of that can damage your trading psyche beyond repair. Winning traders do not have expectations of what the market is going to do.
For better or worse, a retail trader lacking analysis tools capable of detecting impending bias has little choice other than to 'react'. Conversely, a professional trader with access to information and tools that potentially lead price is in a position to make genuine predictions. There's nothing inherently wrong with having a directional bias, so long as you're flexible enough to adjust your view as your info/tools dictate.

Every trader must nonetheless commit to a directional position -- long or short -- and regardless of whether he chooses to see it as a 'prediction' or not, must expose himself to possible loss, and any resulting emotional pain. Successful traders accept responsibility for the decisions they make, and are willing to embrace whatever pain that might cause.
  • #39
  • Aug 8, 2017 6:18pm Aug 8, 2017 6:18pm
Quoting hanover
{quote}For better or worse, a retail trader lacking analysis tools capable of detecting impending bias has little choice other than to 'react'. Conversely, a professional trader with access to information and tools that potentially lead price is in a position to make genuine predictions. There's nothing inherently wrong with having a directional bias, so long as you're flexible enough to adjust your view as your info/tools dictate. Every trader must nonetheless commit to a directional position -- long or short -- and regardless of whether he chooses...
I agree with all that.

Directional bias (in my opinion) is a different thing than a predictive mindset with the key difference being, as you pointed out, flexibility. Every trend trader has to have directional bias. I just think that those (and speaking solely of retail traders) who are wrapped up in trying to predict the next big move tend to not be as flexible -- particularly when their prediction turns out to be right initially, and then moves fast against them. At the point, the predictor has two areas of distress: the lost capital and the sting of being wrong. Predictors are more likely to over-commit to their directional position.
  • #40
  • Aug 8, 2017 6:29pm Aug 8, 2017 6:29pm
1.Trend following is an average strategy
2.It produces returns with a lot of draw downs
3.Comes in and out of favor.
4.Most people won't stomach it's cyclicality.

Let me ask you guys, will you want a system averaging 20% a month with occasional draw-downs of 20-40%, or a system averaging 20% a month with occasional draw-downs of 5-10%. Base on this I think trend following is not an effective strategy.
Special one
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