The Club!

Hey Sixer,

hope you had a nice weekend :-)


SP500

The movement from the 2009 low:

if my count is right, we are in the final stages of the black 5 of blue 5 of red 3. Maybe we need a touch of the magical 2500 beforehand.

Since the blue 5 is extended, it has a high chance to retrace back to the green 2 or black 2 level of blue 5. That is between roughly 2000-2100


The second Variant would be, that the price will only go back to the wave 4 levels. That is between 2400 and 2350. For me that is lower probability, but the market is a bit manic at the moment, so I will not rule it out. In this case I would bet on a longer sideways movement


Only when this red 4 has concluded, we can calculate proper targets for wave red 5

When we draw a base channel from the red 1 to the 2500 area, then possible targets for 2018 were up to roughly 2800 and to the end of 2019 roughly 2900-3000


My new SP500 main count I only discovered Saturday thanks to your question which forced me to look again and out of another angle into the matter.

When I saw the inflation adjusted chart of the DOW, it ringed the bell. that the movement from the 1930 low to the 2000 high can, with highest probability, only a 1,2-(1-2-3- movement, and that we are now in 1,2-(1-2-3-4-5

So I have to thank you

LOL

and after roughly 1000 more years and 200 presidencies there will not a single working day left

Illinois Makes "Barack Obama Day" State Holiday

Markus,

AGAIN: I hate the elliott terms "main" count and "2nd", "3rd" variants or more. All this is confusing !!
Take the outlook of the Delta cycles for the correct elliott count. You can see in my last post the different time frames (pink, black, red) which should be the basis for your elliot count.

Sixer

Hi old friend.

Is he really so stupid, is he a liar, is he a cheater?

Can not belief such statements, which are assault on intelect:

Bullard: "Hard To Find Explanation For Low Inflation; Low-Vol Doesn't Signal Anything"


May I kindly remind him what his peers already pinned down a few years ago?

Here we go:

What Does Money Velocity Tell Us about Low Inflation in ... (from the St. Louis FED)



Quick reminder:

Velocity of money

Inflation

and the connection of the two:


snipset:

Monetarists believe the most significant factor influencing inflation or deflation is how fast the money supply grows or shrinks. They consider fiscal policy, or government spending and taxation, as ineffective in controlling inflation.[53] The monetarist economist Milton Friedman famously stated, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."[54] Monetarists assert that the empirical study of monetary history shows that inflation has always been a monetary phenomenon. The quantity theory of money, simply stated, says that any change in the amount of money in a system will change the price level. This theory begins with the equation of exchange:
{\displaystyle MV=PQ}https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/me...9b446cebba722c
where
{\displaystyle M}https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/me...f0c0151758a0dd is the nominal quantity of money;
{\displaystyle V}https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/me...72098adfa52845 is the velocity of money in final expenditures;
{\displaystyle P}https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/me...916a738548d40a is the general price level;
{\displaystyle Q}https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/me...71bbca681219ed is an index of the real value of final expenditures;
In this formula, the general price level is related to the level of real economic activity (Q), the quantity of money (M) and the velocity of money (V). The formula is an identity because the velocity of money (V) is defined to be the ratio of final nominal expenditure ({\displaystyle PQ}https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/me...c33d3c713fe4ca) to the quantity of money (M).
Monetarists assume that the velocity of money is unaffected by monetary policy (at least in the long run), and the real value of output is determined in the long run by the productive capacity of the economy. Under these assumptions, the primary driver of the change in the general price level is changes in the quantity of money. With exogenous velocity (that is, velocity being determined externally and not being influenced by monetary policy), the money supply determines the value of nominal output (which equals final expenditure) in the short run. In practice, velocity is not exogenous in the short run, and so the formula does not necessarily imply a stable short-run relationship between the money supply and nominal output. However, in the long run, changes in velocity are assumed to be determined by the evolution of the payments mechanism. If velocity is relatively unaffected by monetary policy, the long-run rate of increase in prices (the inflation rate) is equal to the long-run growth rate of the money supply plus the exogenous long-run rate of velocity growth minus the long run growth rate of real output.[8]

Hi Mate,

all good in beautiful HK? The pips are green and the sky is the limit? :-)

Would you mind to release the breaks from EURUSD, regardless of direction?

Thanks in advance

Release the brakes??
you want it to go higher?? Hmmmm... i actually got no view on the eurusd.

"It Won't Be Pretty" - One Trader Wonders "What Happens When 'Analysis Be Damned' Fails?"

US "Confirms" N.Korea Has ICBM-Ready Nuclear Warheads


as had the Irak?

Dilemma for USA/Britain:

do not trust a proven liar......

Euro Futures /6E

Price at "no business zone" in volume profile

this is the bearish view at the moment

I do not like it because of shape, but it would certainly fool so many people.

Volume profiles EU (/6E)

WTF Headline Of The Day: Fed "Reluctant" To Manipulate Stocks, Bullard Says


as I already said:

they are buying stocks

PPT

EU (/6E)

equivolume candles 15min TF

Your elliott count of the EURUSD post# 23252.

You should start to search for an alternative count. The price pattern since the low of 2017 is not finished yet ! Wave "4" (red) is still unfolding.

Sixer

EW works in this way, at least for me:

counting the waves, judging probabilities.

If I can count 5 waves up, the move might be finished, especially when there is sentiment extreme.

When one has entered short positions around the top, set SL to the high.

The recent movement down can be counted as 5 waves down, but also as three waves down, where the recent low was the B-wave of an ABC (or WXY) flat


Hint: most Elliotticans have main count and alternative count. You can find a clue by what I wrote:

"I do not like it because of shape, but it would certainly fool so many people"

Tesla Cars Aren't As Carbon (And Taxpayer) Friendly As You Think

Ron Paul Institute: "Only Morons Believe What The US Government Says About North Korea"

Trump Thanks Putin For Kicking Out 755 Diplomats: "We'll Save A Lot Of Money"


LOL What an Euphimist