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US Current Account / US TIC

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 18, 2006 6:28am Sep 18, 2006 6:28am
HI:

I think a good 20B diviation will move the USD up at the news release. otherwise i think we may see the USD LOSS GROUND.

Just guassing
  • #2
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:05am Sep 18, 2006 7:05am
Quoting Yakovzvi
HI:

I think a good 20B diviation will move the USD up at the news release. otherwise i think we may see the USD LOSS GROUND.

Just guassing
I'm looking at the USD/CAD and USD/JPY for this trade. US TIC does move but sometimes it is delayed.

At present, the USD is strengthened over both the CAD and the JPY. Always good to trade a stronger currency against a weaker one.

With the current strength, I'd continue to buy USD.
  • #3
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:10am Sep 18, 2006 7:10am
Quoting ngdaniel
I'm looking at the USD/CAD and USD/JPY for this trade. US TIC does move but sometimes it is delayed.

At present, the USD is strengthened over both the CAD and the JPY. Always good to trade a stronger currency against a weaker one.

With the current strength, I'd continue to buy USD.
None of the movements you see is becuse of the USD, JPY is becuse of the G7 CAD is becuse of there weak growth.
  • #4
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:13am Sep 18, 2006 7:13am
Quoting Yakovzvi
None of the movements you see is becuse of the USD, JPY is becuse of the G7 CAD is becuse of there weak growth.


I am sure the fact that JPY are having a day off has something to do with it too.
Trade what you see not what you think
  • #5
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:13am Sep 18, 2006 7:13am
(GMT)

1230 - U.S. Q2 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
Commerce Department releases Q2 2006 current account,
Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a median
deficit of $214.00 billion in the second quarter versus
a deficit of $208.67 billion in the first quarter.

1300 - U.S. NET CAP INFLOWS/FOREIGN TREASURY BUYS FOR JULY
Treasury Department issues net capital inflows and
foreign treasury purchases for July. Economists in
a Reuters survey expect net capital inflows were $70.0
billion versus $75.1 billion in June.

The current account data is not a big mkt mover simply because it tends not to veer too far away from consensus expectations. I'm not saying it can't happen, but the the bulk of this number is already fully known (by adding up the trade deficits over the quarter).

For the TIC data, the tendency is for more volatility relative to other data - of course, the outturn relative to expectations is important as it is with all other data releases, then its partly a question of whether the number covers the base requirement for financing the US current account deficit on a monthly basis, and then its all about the details of financing (where is the money coming from and which assets is it going in to). From experience, if you get a move of around 25 to 30 pips this can be a prime candidate for fading (trading in the opposite direction).
"Always bet on black"
  • #6
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:14am Sep 18, 2006 7:14am
This is a day to sell the USD. Looks like a downer USD week across the board to me.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #7
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:15am Sep 18, 2006 7:15am
Quoting pingpong
I am sure the fact that JPY are having a day off has something to do with it too.
Possible but then how do you explain the sudden surge in strength JPY had in the last 3 minutes?

This is a weird market.
  • #8
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:15am Sep 18, 2006 7:15am
Quoting pingpong
I am sure the fact that JPY are having a day off has something to do with it too.

Ive been thumb twiddling waiting for a break of a lower support on cable and also a resistance line on usdjpy. just bounced off both, Im hoping this TICS release will get me in a trade on the break.
Trade what you see not what you think
  • #9
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:17am Sep 18, 2006 7:17am
Quoting LizardGizzard
This is a day to sell the USD. Looks like a downer USD week across the board to me.
It seems like a bad week to trade anyway.

CAD strength is so low today. The strongest currencies right now seems to be the CHF and the AUD.
  • #10
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:20am Sep 18, 2006 7:20am
Quoting ngdaniel
It seems like a bad week to trade anyway.

CAD strength is so low today. The strongest currencies right now seems to be the CHF and the AUD.
Each and everyone with there problems, but it sounds all r going to go agains the USD.

Yankey
  • #11
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:22am Sep 18, 2006 7:22am
I'm long on USD/CAD based on currency strength. Only time will tell.

I've got a 50 pip SL
  • #12
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:29am Sep 18, 2006 7:29am
Quoting ngdaniel
I'm long on USD/CAD based on currency strength. Only time will tell.

I've got a 50 pip SL
Damn, now I have to wait to get out and minimize my loss. Not going to be too long a wait since the USD is still stronger than the CAD in the long run.
  • #13
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:39am Sep 18, 2006 7:39am
Quoting ngdaniel
Damn, now I have to wait to get out and minimize my loss. Not going to be too long a wait since the USD is still stronger than the CAD in the long run.
TIC is comming out, and the CAD International Securities Transactions was very good. so dont do any mistake.

Yankey
  • #14
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:41am Sep 18, 2006 7:41am
Quoting Yakovzvi
TIC is comming out, and the CAD International Securities Transactions was very good. so dont do any mistake.

Yankey
I'm waiting for the TIC. I'm looking for recovery from this hour.
  • #15
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:44am Sep 18, 2006 7:44am
Quoting ngdaniel
I'm waiting for the TIC. I'm looking for recovery from this hour.
Recovered at a profit. Just had to have patience and wait.
  • #16
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:45am Sep 18, 2006 7:45am
Quoting ngdaniel
I'm waiting for the TIC. I'm looking for recovery from this hour.
did it
  • #17
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:49am Sep 18, 2006 7:49am
Excuse me, I think, don't just believe what the hell saying it. US now is at support to war (against whoever he think as terrorists), dollar used to buy weapons, support black conspiracy and that other things (including iran's uranium shit, any proof?). I guess, it just a trap. To make we buy dollar, and got dissappointed by no hike in interest rate, because of strong dollar ?Please...(No offens, sorry if I offended anyone )
Hello World
  • #18
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:51am Sep 18, 2006 7:51am
Quoting Yakovzvi
did it
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A man crashed his vehicle into a security barricade at the U.S. Capitol on Monday and was arrested, authorities said.

Construction workers said the man had driven through a barricade at the Capitol, where a major visitors' center is under construction.

Police put the Capitol complex under a lockdown as the investigation of the incident progressed. The incident happened shortly before 8 a.m., witnesses said.

Sgt. Kimberly Schneider, spokesman for the Capitol Police, said police were examining the man's vehicle.
  • #19
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:53am Sep 18, 2006 7:53am
Bloomberg is announcing that someone tried to break into the White House today.

Maybe the poor guy had a bad forex trade.

Looks like it moved the USD/CAD up.
  • #20
  • Sep 18, 2006 7:54am Sep 18, 2006 7:54am
I have no idea how TIC moves; but do you think it will move the forex???
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