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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #4,441
  • Aug 6, 2017 4:30am Aug 6, 2017 4:30am
Quoting minosd
A trade I am in at the moment XAU USD long on a 8h SAF entry {image}
Hello minosd
Thank you for sharing this trade with us.
Could i ask that you show a top down analysis to help us see your thought process for going long Gold please?

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #4,442
  • Aug 6, 2017 4:43am Aug 6, 2017 4:43am
Hello everyone

USDCAD - a longer term trade idea

best wishes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad trade idea.PNG Size: 60 KB
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #4,443
  • Aug 6, 2017 7:28am Aug 6, 2017 7:28am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello minosd Thank you for sharing this trade with us. Could i ask that you show a top down analysis to help us see your thought process for going long Gold please? best wishes
Hello Akt,

Thx for asking, my original screen shot about this trade is not clear at all...so here is a better analysis, hope you guys agree.

Br
Minosd
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAU USD long_SAF 8h_MISSED_reviewed.png Size: 114 KB
  • #4,444
  • Aug 6, 2017 8:34am Aug 6, 2017 8:34am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello ghaziali226 Welcome to T.I.O.F Good to meet you and thank you for the kind words Glad to know you find the material useful. The webinar recordings are sent out to people who have shown interest in attending when the dates are announced. The next one will be the 2nd of September, after the summer holidays So if you are interested in attending please send me your email address in a PM or via email best wishes

Hi Michael, glad you replied it made my day lol
Can i please get your email address as i am unable to send you a private message via Forex Factory as i am only a junior member (having only joined 2 days just because of this thread). I am very much interest in attending the webinar so i'll send you my email address, name etc. ASAP.

Thanks a lot Michael, take care.
  • #4,445
  • Aug 6, 2017 11:47am Aug 6, 2017 11:47am
Hi Akt,

Thread lurker and new poster here, thank you for your work.

I would like to ask you this: Do you treat supply/demand zones created by news with any less/more confidence than those formed without such stimulus? or does this not alter your judgement at all?

Many Thanks,
Toby
  • #4,446
  • Aug 7, 2017 4:44am Aug 7, 2017 4:44am
Quoting StylesT
Hi Akt, Thread lurker and new poster here, thank you for your work. I would like to ask you this: Do you treat supply/demand zones created by news with any less/more confidence than those formed without such stimulus? or does this not alter your judgement at all? Many Thanks, Toby
Hello StylesT. Good to meet you
Thanks for coming out of the shadows finally

No, how and why zones are created are not taken into consideration in my decision making process

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #4,447
  • Aug 7, 2017 4:45am Aug 7, 2017 4:45am
Quoting vickybha
{quote} @ MazAbb I've tried to clear your doubt {image} Hope that helps
Dear Vickybha,
I have seen a mention about 1:2 rule in asessing zone's quality but could not find it in the thread. Could you be so kind to explain this rule?
Regards
  • #4,448
  • Aug 7, 2017 4:59am Aug 7, 2017 4:59am
Quoting minosd
{quote} Hello Akt, Thx for asking, my original screen shot about this trade is not clear at all...so here is a better analysis, hope you guys agree. Br Minosd {image}
Hello minosd
Thank you for posting the MTF Analysis up. Much appreciated

If i may, one thought, buying with price inside a big weekly SZ probably didn't help your long trade

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #4,449
  • Aug 7, 2017 5:43am Aug 7, 2017 5:43am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello minosd Thank you for posting the MTF Analysis up. Much appreciated If i may, one thought, buying with price inside a big weekly SZ probably didn't help your long trade best wishes
Hello Akt,

I agree :-) and did not see that, although it was clear that price is an a LT downtrend at the moment.
Price hit my BE stop on Friday afternoon after NFP news.
My thoughts about news: I have been into fx for 7 years now and have been watching news events many many times. In my experience it's difficult to forecast the markets reaction to news. Most of times when you try to trade news it will cost you money, so the best thing you can do is just ignore it. News is good for 1 thing: it creates volatility!
  • #4,450
  • Aug 7, 2017 12:14pm Aug 7, 2017 12:14pm
Hello guys,
Just to clarify, is the zone I'm pointing being removed as the price has moved above it without an problem?
But it came back down, so I was wondering, what if the price closes below or in the zone?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sean USDCAD 8August W (1).png Size: 128 KB
  • #4,451
  • Aug 7, 2017 1:40pm Aug 7, 2017 1:40pm
Hi tseann
I think, the zone you highlighted has been removed (i.e. in S.A.D methodology we assume all sell orders at that level have been used up once price overshoots the zone). From its current position price may go lower ( and form a new supply zone) or it may continue up (and form a new demand zone). Let's wait and see...BTW the move away from the zone highlighted was not great indicating any supply there after the move away wasnt great. Hope this helps.
  • #4,452
  • Aug 7, 2017 6:08pm Aug 7, 2017 6:08pm
Quoting Akt
Hello everyone USDCAD - a longer term trade idea best wishes{image}
I don't get it, why selling? You are shearing M,W & daily analysis, as I know and you explain the. Your M chart would be your curve right? So why look for selling opportunities
and why you say downtrend in the M chart? It just has create one SZ, i would understand if it was on the weekly but I don't get why on M
for me as I see, and top analysis process, I will looking for buys as it's low in the curve
  • #4,453
  • Aug 8, 2017 4:11am Aug 8, 2017 4:11am
Quoting devt
Hi tseann I think, the zone you highlighted has been removed (i.e. in S.A.D methodology we assume all sell orders at that level have been used up once price overshoots the zone). From its current position price may go lower ( and form a new supply zone) or it may continue up (and form a new demand zone). Let's wait and see...BTW the move away from the zone highlighted was not great indicating any supply there after the move away wasnt great. Hope this helps.
Hello devt,
Thank you for that.
So the move away from the highlighted zone indicates any possible supply zone formed after that wouldn't be great means that if any chance the supply zone is formed, it wouldn't be that strong?
  • #4,454
  • Aug 8, 2017 5:27am Aug 8, 2017 5:27am
Hello all,
Just random analysing a pair, looking into GBPAUD here.
I do analysis on Monthly, Weekly and Daily, but I'll share and question about Monthly and Weekly here.
So in my Monthly chart, I've noted that there's a zone with question. Can I actually say that it is a SZ there, as the price dropped rapidly and taken out the DZ (which is formed by Rally-Base-Rally)? But The SZ I'm considering there has a long wick there, can I still draw the zone as so?
Next move on to the Weekly chart, we look from the top to the bottom, we can first see the reversal doji like candlestick there, can I consider that as a SZ (The Drop-Base-Drop) as it takes out the DZ at the next candlestick? Then the yellow area I drew, the yellow area contains all bearish candlesticks, I can consider that as a rapid drop and that SZ I've drawn as valid right?

Best regards,
Sean
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sean GBPAUD 8August M.png Size: 135 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sean GBPAUD 8August W.png Size: 169 KB
  • #4,455
  • Aug 8, 2017 6:33am Aug 8, 2017 6:33am
Quoting Yunvic
{quote} Dear Vickybha, I have seen a mention about 1:2 rule in asessing zone's quality but could not find it in the thread. Could you be so kind to explain this rule? Regards

@Yunvic
The 1:2 is not a rule per se.
It denotes the magnitude of movement in price caused by the imbalance in the zone being considered, or as i'd like to call 'moveaway'

The larger the imbalance .. the larger the moveaway.. the more the profit margin.

In technical term... if 1 is the height of the zone being considered... 2 is the distance it travels.
  • #4,456
  • Aug 8, 2017 7:04am Aug 8, 2017 7:04am
Quoting chino
{quote} I don't get it, why selling? You are shearing M,W & daily analysis, as I know and you explain the. Your M chart would be your curve right? So why look for selling opportunities and why you say downtrend in the M chart? It just has create one SZ, i would understand if it was on the weekly but I don't get why on M for me as I see, and top analysis process, I will looking for buys as it's low in the curve
Hello chino.
Good to hear your thoughts on the USDCAD.
What can i say, that is the beauty of trading, different traders look at the same chart and have different interpretations.
Like i said on the chart i posted, taking long positions are possible in the short term.
I am more interested in the longer term trade in this market.

One question if i may though, remember the definitions of a downtrend within the methodology? - one demand zone removed plus the ability to identify downside momentum.

best wishes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad chino.PNG Size: 84 KB
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #4,457
  • Aug 8, 2017 8:51am Aug 8, 2017 8:51am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello chino. Good to hear your thoughts on the USDCAD. best wishes{image}
Yes I notice that low later after my post, thanks again
  • #4,458
  • Aug 8, 2017 5:12pm Aug 8, 2017 5:12pm
Quoting tseannn
{quote} Hello devt, Thank you for that. So the move away from the highlighted zone indicates any possible supply zone formed after that wouldn't be great means that if any chance the supply zone is formed, it wouldn't be that strong?
Hi tseannn, Move away from a zone "indicates" how strong the supply or demand that's left behind in a zone is. In S.A.D, the stronger the move away the more unfilled seller/buy orders are assumed to be left behind (i.e. move-away "indicates" (no guarantee) unfilled institutional orders left in the zone or price levels/zone where institutions in the past liked the price so much that price had to move to accommodate some of their orders (the institutions maybe interested again at that level. Remember the name of the forum :-) )... hope this helps..
  • #4,459
  • Aug 9, 2017 4:13am Aug 9, 2017 4:13am
Quoting devt
{quote} Hi tseannn, Move away from a zone "indicates" how strong the supply or demand that's left behind in a zone is. In S.A.D, the stronger the move away the more unfilled seller/buy orders are assumed to be left behind (i.e. move-away "indicates" (no guarantee) unfilled institutional orders left in the zone or price levels/zone where institutions in the past liked the price so much that price had to move to accommodate some of their orders (the institutions maybe interested again at that level. Remember the name of the forum :-) )... hope this...
Hello devt,
Very much thank you to your explanation, now I understand better.
Could you take a look on my GBPAUD analysis if you've time? Thank you.

Best regards,
Sean
  • #4,460
  • Aug 9, 2017 5:32am Aug 9, 2017 5:32am
It's really calm in the markets at the moment, but that can change :-)

There was a really nice Sell opp in GBP AUD last week
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