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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #23,201
  • Edited 8:39am Aug 4, 2017 8:10am | Edited 8:39am
Markus,

thanks for your reply.
I know that a discussion will not bring any "result" for both of us. So, please have a look at the following charts to understand my point of view with regard to the count of daneric.

The stock crash indicator shows that a top in the stock market will not come this year - the spread of the T-Notes must be negative as in all crashes since 1975.
Yesterdays value was (plus) +0,9.

The actual pattern of the S&P 500 is a irregular flat as in 2009 and 2013.

Sixer
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  • #23,202
  • Aug 4, 2017 8:10am Aug 4, 2017 8:10am
Critical point now for EU

look at channel - do not worry too much about the count displayed on it
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  • #23,203
  • Aug 4, 2017 3:44pm Aug 4, 2017 3:44pm
Quoting Sixer
Markus, thanks for your reply. I know that a discussion will not bring any "result" for both of us. So, please have a look at the following charts to understand my point of view with regard to the count of daneric. The stock crash indicator shows that a top in the stock market will not come this year - the spread of the T-Notes must be negative as in all crashes since 1975. Yesterdays value was (plus) +0,9. The actual pattern of the S&P 500 is a irregular flat as in 2009 and 2013. Sixer {image} {image}


will come back to this on the weekend


maybe read this in the meantime

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning...ng_of_the_end/
  • #23,204
  • Aug 4, 2017 3:49pm Aug 4, 2017 3:49pm
on 14.April 2014 he wrote this

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning..._stock_market/


but the market kept on climbing for another year
  • #23,205
  • Aug 4, 2017 3:53pm Aug 4, 2017 3:53pm
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning...seasonal_peak/

DJIA Arriving at the Real Seasonal Peak
  • #23,206
  • Aug 4, 2017 4:01pm Aug 4, 2017 4:01pm
Why Are Bond Yields Staying Low?
  • #23,207
  • Aug 4, 2017 4:40pm Aug 4, 2017 4:40pm
Quoting Sixer
Markus, thanks for your reply. I know that a discussion will not bring any "result" for both of us. So, please have a look at the following charts to understand my point of view with regard to the count of daneric. The stock crash indicator shows that a top in the stock market will not come this year - the spread of the T-Notes must be negative as in all crashes since 1975. Yesterdays value was (plus) +0,9. The actual pattern of the S&P 500 is a irregular flat as in 2009 and 2013. Sixer {image} {image}

Hi Sixer,

as always thank you very much to share with us some other sights.

Since a few weeks I am also looking for some "indicators", or call them surrogate parameters which foreshadow crashes or rallies.


Many of this "indicators" are based only on very few occasions, so from a statistical point of view they will not stand a test for significance.


Many of correlations may be simply coincidence.

Maybe you remember that many say, that correlations work until they do not.


As is with your shown crash indicator, it had only the chance to proof right three times since 1975, when I define a crash as a loss of more or equal 30%.

Since the yield curves are now somewhat "disturbed" through the ever printing money agenda, no one can answer the question, if it needs this time the same value in spreads than the last two times.

Maybe, maybe not.


Back to EW:

what do you mean by saying:

The actual pattern of the S&P 500 is a irregular flat as in 2009 and 2013

In no way I can count 2009 to 2013 as irregular flat


My best guess is, that we are in a wave 5 (maybe final wave 5) up since 2009.

We could have get a multiple 1-2 starting sequence. When I were you, expecting more sideways and upways to conclude the cycle target, I would try to find such a fitting count with multiple 1-2's at the starting in 2009.

Keep in mind: it is highly unlikely that one sees more than 3, let alone 4 1-2's in a sequence. Most counts I saw which showed such things ended wrong

In the SP500 I can count 3 1-2's at the weekly TF before a wave 3 seems to kick in


maybe later more
  • #23,208
  • Aug 4, 2017 9:12pm Aug 4, 2017 9:12pm
Here is the Crash indicator since 1975 - notice, that the indicator turned before the stock market topped.

I consider all price patterns based on the Delta cycles of different time frames - this is far more better than try to find a elliott count plus 1-3 alternatives.
I always have one count only.

Sixer
Attached Image
  • #23,209
  • Aug 5, 2017 2:30am Aug 5, 2017 2:30am
Quoting Sixer
Here is the Crash indicator since 1975 - notice, that the indicator turned before the stock market topped. I consider all price patterns based on the Delta cycles of different time frames - this is far more better than try to find a elliott count plus 1-3 alternatives. I always have one count only. Sixer {image}
Hi Sixer,

I would like to give perspective to the marked recessions:

1980 - around 10% plus in DOW
1982 - around 20% minus in Dow

1990 - around 15% minus in Dow

2000-2002 - around minus 30% (that is a Crash)

2007-2009 - around nearly 50% (that is a Crash)

but there was also the Aug 1987 Crash, which was minus 30% (this one the indicator missed)

so by my understandig of Crash (a drop equal or more than 30%) the indicator worked 2 times out of 3

by judging with looking at all data presented above, the Crash indicator worked 4 times out of 6, one failed signal, and one complete miss out of a 30% drop.


OK, from probability perspective one can use it :-)


BTW, found great site with many historical charts

http://www.macrotrends.net/
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  • #23,210
  • Aug 5, 2017 2:52am Aug 5, 2017 2:52am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Sixer, I would like to give perspective to the marked recessions: 1980 - around 10% plus in DOW 1982 - around 20% minus in Dow 1990 - around 15% minus in Dow 2000-2002 - around minus 30% (that is a Crash) 2007-2009 - around nearly 50% (that is a Crash) but there was also the Aug 1987 Crash, which was minus 30% (this one the indicator missed) so by my understandig of Crash (a drop equal or more than 30%) the indicator worked 2 times out of 3 by judging with looking at all data presented above, the Crash indicator worked 4 times out of...

inflation adjusted count on Dow

this may bet in the end on hyperinflation - may seriously consider Gold in the next move down

as marked on the chart: Sixer may get his time and more upwards action, when the sequence since 2009 low started as a 1,2,1,2 sequence instead of the overall promoted 1-2 sequence, with the 2 as big irregular flat
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #23,211
  • Aug 5, 2017 3:15am Aug 5, 2017 3:15am
in light of the above presented chart:

this was the trap for nearly all Elliotticans in 2000
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #23,212
  • Aug 5, 2017 3:22am Aug 5, 2017 3:22am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} inflation adjusted count on Dow this may bet in the end on hyperinflation - may seriously consider Gold in the next move down as marked on the chart: Sixer may get his time and more upwards action, when the sequence since 2009 low started as a 1,2,1,2 sequence instead of the overall promoted 1-2 sequence, with the 2 as big irregular flat {image}

and this count is analogous to the inflation adjusted counts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #23,213
  • Aug 5, 2017 3:35am Aug 5, 2017 3:35am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} and this count is analogous to the inflation adjusted counts {image}

clarification to the points of recognition

A point of recognition can be seen in literally every wave 3.

But on above chart I mean:

the first circled one is not a really point of recognition in form of a 3 of 3 of 3 or that kind, because look to the left on the chart: it had not discovered "terra incognita".

the second cycled one has discovered "terra incognita", therefore it deserves to be the real 3


What do you think, guys and gals?
  • #23,214
  • Aug 5, 2017 4:09am Aug 5, 2017 4:09am
I think there should be clear rules to validate or invalidate .
Because in this example in the first wave3, after all, it was not the point of recognition ok.

So how can I avoid this mistake?
Before fooling me!
  • #23,215
  • Aug 5, 2017 4:13am Aug 5, 2017 4:13am
But I am also very adept at stop loss because I can not imagine using a strategy that is wrong 300 pips
  • #23,216
  • Aug 5, 2017 4:28am Aug 5, 2017 4:28am
Quoting chess king
But I am also very adept at stop loss because I can not imagine using a strategy that is wrong 300 pips

That depends upon if you are a trader or more kind of an investor. For long term strategies 300 pips is nothing


But SL is a fine thing :-)
  • #23,217
  • Aug 5, 2017 4:52am Aug 5, 2017 4:52am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} That depends upon if you are a trader or more kind of an investor. For long term strategies 300 pips is nothing But SL is a fine thing :-)
I agree.
A Long Term Strategy breathe in another way.


But you know very well that many people for one reason or another lose everything. Even if you have been using a winning strategy until then.
For this reason I always try to protect myself.

note:I'm not focusing on the mini retail trader I'm talking about other values.
  • #23,218
  • Aug 5, 2017 4:57am Aug 5, 2017 4:57am
But I did not want to get into the hormone chapter and its effect on trading
When you take a risk
  • #23,219
  • Aug 5, 2017 5:06am Aug 5, 2017 5:06am
Quoting chess king
I think there should be clear rules to validate or invalidate . Because in this example in the first wave3, after all, it was not the point of recognition ok. So how can I avoid this mistake? Before fooling me!

EW has some rules and many guidelines, but often times one has room for interpretation :-(

I am a bit annoyed about myself having only seen today, that the supposed to be wave 3 in the Dow is, with high probability, only another wave 1. That sucks, really.

Prechter may now be totally wrong with his deflationary scenario as the big endgame for the next years. Yes, we may see deflation (and we do see it already). But it may only be the prelude for a much more toxic hyperinflation thereafter. Prechter thinks, that the recent building deflation will reset the market to values not seen since the 1929 crash.

Now this seems to be totally wrong. If my thesis now is right, the deflationary phase will drag us only down to the 2009 levels. And we have learned what the CB's will be doing in this case: they will print like mad, eventually releasing the helicopter money. Then the wave 5 will give tribute to its Eliott Wave name: sucker-rally

All goes up, but no one will really gain because of the hyperinflationary scenario.

It seems now, at least for me, that the "Crack-up-boom" theorists have won.


Back to your question:

Above mentioned fault with the wave 3 point of recognition: simply look to the left side on the chart: if the proposed to be wave 3 has not filled area, which was not covered before, it may not be the the major wave 3. This is especially true for stock markets or things that naturally develop in the long scheme to ever higher levels.

If a point of recognition in a major 3 in stock markets does not enter new territory, it may only be a further wave 1, or an diagonal.

OK, this can be discussed, certainly: Because it is my thesis. But since EW is about market psychology, it makes only sense in this way.


And again back to your question:

since EW is a play with probability, we sometimes can not avoid all faults but only can see them afterwards.
  • #23,220
  • Aug 5, 2017 5:09am Aug 5, 2017 5:09am
S&P 500 Earnings History


has someone a link to such a chart where it is inflation adjusted?


That would be interesting to count, what do you think?
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