Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 2881 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,601
  • Jul 28, 2017 11:57pm Jul 28, 2017 11:57pm
Hi dbrown101

i have art of war, paper money, and the turtles rules if that is any help i will post them for you to download.

let me know what you need of these if any?

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,602
  • Jul 29, 2017 1:54am Jul 29, 2017 1:54am
Quoting phil13
Hi CookieMonsta i understand what you are saying on that MO, but from my own personal experience it just adds another layer to complicate things when they can be similarly managed in the spot market which does not have time decay and may even pay you interest on the trades. i guess you and everyone else need to explore these things yourself to find out what way works best for you at the end of the day. regards Phil.
I find I have enough on my plate without trying totally different stuff all the time - would mess me up - I don't want too hard a life. I think we need to go slow learning how to use each skill with minimal bleeding and demo what we are learning away from the book. (I know you do this)

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,603
  • Jul 29, 2017 3:07am Jul 29, 2017 3:07am
Hi Alex

as fti says ... slow and steady at your own pace, it is not a race it is a marathon.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,604
  • Jul 29, 2017 7:07am Jul 29, 2017 7:07am
Quoting dbrown101
I've started my 3rd or 4th read of this thread...Or if they are even necessary as the information is already given in the thread? Thanks
Hello DBrown,

If I may, since you have read all the Thread, you should certainly have found some files attached to posts there. Second, I would refer to FTI's post No. 37681:
Quote
Here is for people bashing now, so that they not read begining of this thread where i gave the stuff.
Also because with wrong mindset, the only thing the peeps get is themselves killed.
Peeps who can make it work already quietly reading and analysing.
This is no holi grill thread, is a self help thread.

Definitely, not relating the whole post and the citation to your individual search, I put, IMO, the most essential in bold.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,605
  • Jul 29, 2017 7:17am Jul 29, 2017 7:17am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I find I have enough on my plate without trying totally different stuff all the time - would mess me up - I don't want too hard a life. I think we need to go slow learning how to use each skill with minimal bleeding and demo what we are learning away from the book. (I know you do this) Alex
Hello Alexandria,

I agree with Phil and would like to refer to FTI's:
Quote
my friend,
simplicity is the hardest of anything.
We like tweek everything and we like the effects.

There's always the ultimate tweek to enhance. Then we find out what monsters we had created, hopefully not to late.

And again:
Quote
Even when you profitable, there's no harm learning stuff that enhances.
No one can know everything that optimises, comes with more and more experiences.

And some more:
Quote
Very easy problem to solve.
Just stop the greed, until you have mastered the skills and mindset required.
Start your trading , very very very small and practise your skills.
Make the 2 cts, 5 cts, $1, $5 and you will SLOWLY find your benchmark.
You may take like 5 to 8 year to get good at it.
So it is sucidal to try to emulate me, I am beyond pains.
Every body wants to be champion trader, but champion traders take a lomg long time to train.
Put in the wood first before you get the heat.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,606
  • Jul 29, 2017 7:51am Jul 29, 2017 7:51am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} This would be employing terrain and extemporaneous conditions. One thing is I am certainly not at Fti's level to be able to reflex like that, and that is why I have a stronger preference for using ro3k for pair rotation personally since it feels more at home with me since my dancing is not up to par to reflex like fti, so it feels more relaxed to use ro3k for me. Sometimes I get confused by pa in 1 pair after deploying scout, I have an option to work into another pair.
Hello CookieMonsta,

As I wrote, your experimenting is interesting and I'm not judging it (being myself not at that stage of internalizing). We're right as soon as we're in green.

This is just to remind us on one of FTI's Christmas gifts (my putting some in bold):
Quote
When you battle in markets, do not over burden your mind with too much arsenals. Carry only what working for you and build as experience guides, and as you journey you will improve as you master that which i had tried to unveil. Too much thoughts only burden you...Learn to FOCUS, and learn that which the market teaches daily...
So you have to find your own learning curve...Always know your limits.
Trading skills must be internalised to reflex, like in driving. Thinking is only when you are novice.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,607
  • Edited 4:01am Jul 30, 2017 2:05am | Edited 4:01am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, As I wrote, your experimenting is interesting and I'm not judging it (being myself not at that stage of internalizing). We're right as soon as we're in green. This is just to remind us on one of FTI's Christmas gifts (my putting some in bold): {quote} Best regards, Exnav
If you look at earlier posts, fti did allude that this is a valid strategy, and 3 legged animal can save the book, it's not an experiment, fti himself did hint it works.

And personally I think he did use it as well, I merely discovered how he did it on my own. I had the intuition all along, but I needed the refinement to be used with my own mo.

I do not think he openly said explicitly how to use it, but did hint it.

When I confirmed with him, he did wonder if that was going to make people reread the thread again or not.

If you see earlier how leighsww did the eurusd and usdchf cross, she thought it was a hedge, it only USD hedge, your still exposed EUR and chf, it's not a lock. You still can lose money, the problem with her arguement was she assumed eurusd and usdchf would definitely go opposite to each other, in fact this assumption is wrong, and will definitely kill the account if you tried it. meaning she was right about the rotation, but wrong in her final assumptions about how the 2 pairs WILL hold, this was the fallacy in her arguement, clear that out, understand how ro3k works, and you will see the 3 legged animal. Her assumption of everything can be rescued was wrong, but the generic idea of the rotation is valid, the basis is understanding ro3k.

See how the eurchf acts from before the snb intervention till after, if you assumed that, your account would be dead, or if you are lucky you might have a windfall profit, but I would advice against that, better to use skills to overcome all odds rather than rely on luck.

When crosses tear and you assume and try rescueing by using the rigid rotation suggested, your account will be blown up, because you are taking 2x risk to balance book, and you die 2x faster.

So mandatory understanding of ro3k plus, ability to dance 3 pairs, the 2 majors and their cross is mandatory too.

You noticed how sometimes fti says, notice if for 2 majors like eurusd and usdjpy, they move up on a turn based movement, means money moving from 1 market to another, and you see eurjpy is moving up in a strong trend, probably with little retrace. That's then doing the currency rotation, I noticed the markets pulling this move.

Also notice how fti also sometimes comment that, people might try to fly under the radar and move the crosses before the major moves? Similar rotation here, sometimes they may move a major and a cross, to create a synthetic major.

One more thing, with trump on the helm, I noticed New York open feels very different from, say 1 year ago where Obama is still president, market feels like, they are more afraid that trump might pull weird shit on them, and is extremely cautious, so cautious that they may not even dare to move much. If so, what moves then? Perhaps ro3k? Maybe the crosses? So if snooked out of position, perhaps rotating the exposure helps.

Anyway read Phil's previous post on ro3k, part of the secret is in there, but that's the read of terrain and ro3k relation only, next is to figure the tactics to employ the information you got strategically.

See how professional tennis player play tennis, some are strong in volleys some are strong in power serve, some are strong in other areas, but the ones who can adapt are the ones who come out on top everyone by know when to counter the opponent with what. And sensing what are the weak points of the enemy, being able to read his weakness is key. Then next is strategising and developing counter measures.

the thing is, many times i see what fti mentioned here, after afew reads, i get the feel that, it is perhaps deeper than it seems, it may not simply allude to just the read of the markets, there definitely are more strategies possible to be crafted out and formulated from what he said, or at least my own interpretation of it.
  • #57,608
  • Jul 30, 2017 4:49am Jul 30, 2017 4:49am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} If you look at earlier posts, fti did allude that this is a valid strategy,.....
You are quite right.

When crosses tear and you assume and try rescuing by using the rigid rotation suggested .....ass u me and rigidity in 1 sentence nice

Everything (almost) FTI says is very deep...... remember Phil's cage.

RoK is sth we must gain skills in to use wisely... it can all kill.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,609
  • Edited 6:09am Jul 30, 2017 5:27am | Edited 6:09am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} You are quite right. When crosses tear and you assume and try rescuing by using the rigid rotation suggested .....ass u me and rigidity in 1 sentence nice Everything (almost) FTI says is very deep...... remember Phil's cage. RoK is sth we must gain skills in to use wisely... it can all kill. Alex
yes, anyway my believe is, leighsww when she showed the post regarding the hedging, was when she was still inexperienced in ro3k, also she did not know how crosses are quoted, eurusd and usdjpy = eurusd / usdjpy or some formulae, this you need find out, its 1 divide by the other, the fundamentals is because of the no arbitrage policy. hence long eurusd and long usdjpy must be consistent with short eurjpy, otherwise broker will be arbitraged out. i believe that was the reason why she made that mistake. but mistakes are part and parcel of learning so, as long as the lesson is learnt its good enough, and not make the same mistake more times.

also, i believe she has also read about the statistical correlation of pairs, this does not help matters, because those statistical correlation to produce hedging pairs does not go understand the fundamentals of ro3k, because it does not understand the fundamentals of ro3k to tell it how to spread, it actually reverts back to the title of this thread, technical analysis fallacy, or in this case statistical analysis fallacy. the key was, if anything was done rigidly without proper analysis and grounding, it would lead to problems similar to indicator based rigid mo.

In fact what will be seen on these statistical table is that the numbers will keep oscillating in and out up and down. Depending on what the fundamental drivers are for that week or that day, the correlation numbers will tear, go out of sync then go in sync again, when other events take over. It's not nearly as simple as it seems to simply use those table, similar to indicators, it requires an understanding of ro3k and terrain to decipher what those numbers and the way it shifts means and how to use it properly.

its still back to the basics of ro3k, when crosses tear it indicates the fundamental relationship of the currencies is changing, then statistics which are meant to track the relationship, is lagging and will only show that the correlation is changing much slow and is a lagger. so analysis is needed to understand when it does not apply and mo is required to figure how to handle and mitigate such scenarios.

those statistical tables for pairs correlation is in fact indicators simply to track and see how to currencies are currently moving, the feel the trend aspect for ro3k is still needed.

however, the no arbitrage policy will work in our favour since it keeps the relationship of all 3 pairs in line, and offer us a chance to rotate the one that is causing problems to a more favourable one.
  • #57,610
  • Jul 30, 2017 10:56pm Jul 30, 2017 10:56pm
Hi Exnav

you bring up some good posts and reminders there on the reality about the time frame of learning needed in this game, i think most (including myself at first) try to ignore the vast amount amount of time it will take to be able to do this with a consistent level of success.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,611
  • Jul 31, 2017 1:58am Jul 31, 2017 1:58am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} leighsww when she showed the post regarding the hedging, was when she was still inexperienced in ro3k, also she did not know how crosses are quoted,
Hello CookieMonsta,

Thank you for sharing your observation and reflection. Much appreciate your view within your last two posts. BTW, I also beared in mind the Leighsww attempts and search to make it very simple and working. Although, I presume, failed ones in the end.

Here is just some of my reflection points. Not discussing "hints" and your assumptions or internalising conclusions, I clearly understand the necessity of engaging with more capital, perhaps thereby increasing your risk or stakes. Presumably, we know that the Market may behave as it happens sometimes. I mean whatever pair or crosses could once make all unexpected. Then, issue of your positioning is of vital importance. Watch size and know your limit. Leverage and overtrading. When you are in, e.g., 3 pairs battle simultaneously and having multiple positions, that would not be easy to focus and manage properly in swift chaotic moves. Will we then be able to keep focus, cool and respond in healthy mind? Would it not lead us to a protracted battle in certain circumstances?

I also understand that one could not evolve without raising capital in trade. Either a mere attack, or rescue would be about the same. Myself, must admit that I'm also operating with respect to RoK but have never tried more than 2 pairs simultaneously due to mentioned in the above indent. I did so not to "hedge" or rescue but to use strike opportunity with a different pair having already secured the former. It is: first pair position is in green but stalled, another pair has been bucked up and triggerred.

At the moment, I'm of opinion that I would not force my way and should come to your MO ideas naturally in time.

Although, it's of high value that you are on development and inovative path as well as sharing your ideas with other FTI-TAF followers.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,612
  • Jul 31, 2017 2:03am Jul 31, 2017 2:03am
Quoting phil13
Hi Exnav you bring up some good posts and reminders there on the reality about the time frame of learning needed in this game, i think most (including myself at first) try to ignore the vast amount amount of time it will take to be able to do this with a consistent level of success. regards Phil.
Hello Phil,

Thank you so much. As far as I'm concerned, feeling myself a sort of addicted to FX but eager to evolve, therefore ready for the years long marathon. If survive and FX retail remains available.

Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,613
  • Jul 31, 2017 2:52am Jul 31, 2017 2:52am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, Thank you for sharing your observation and reflection. Much appreciate your view within your last two posts. BTW, I also beared in mind the Leighsww attempts and search to make it very simple and working. Although, I presume, failed ones in the end. Here is just some of my reflection points. Not discussing "hints" and your assumptions or internalising conclusions, I clearly understand the necessity of engaging with more capital, perhaps thereby increasing your risk or stakes. Presumably, we know that the Market may behave...
Takes practise, my friend, specialized practise just to employ the 3pairs.
  • #57,614
  • Jul 31, 2017 3:27am Jul 31, 2017 3:27am
There are many skills to be had here:

I thought of rescue as cool and most important thing - but in a rigid way. Now I think attack skills can take care of losses - what use is army that cannot attack well. Yet attack is not often discussed on thread in any detail.

Price trend and momentum - I have only just appreciated what 4 legged animal is like......higher time frames ... there is loads

Money management... scouts sizes this is whole other area of skill and implication

RoK is another animal that is very deep and needs skills.

There are many many skills to help us make a few simple decisions ... simple but hard.

FTI words and videos take much study.

Thanks for all the contributions to thread.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,615
  • Jul 31, 2017 8:31pm Jul 31, 2017 8:31pm
Quoting phil13
Hi dbrown101 i have art of war, paper money, and the turtles rules if that is any help i will post them for you to download. let me know what you need of these if any? regards Phil.
Hi phil,

I have those and have read them! I was referring to a post (although now i cant seem to find which post it was) i read at the beginning about a file named ky that FTI posted then redacted. just curious what it was in it and if there were others i missed out on... but no biggie. This thread has already given more than enough.
  • #57,616
  • Jul 31, 2017 8:48pm Jul 31, 2017 8:48pm
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} Hi phil, I have those and have read them! I was referring to a post (although now i cant seem to find which post it was) i read at the beginning about a file named ky that FTI posted then redacted. just curious what it was in it and if there were others i missed out on... but no biggie. This thread has already given more than enough.
Hi, ky, aka vibration, as above so below, I don't have the file as well, but it's got to do with this. As well as the law of motion mentioned here.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Kybalion

But you may not need this, as the thread itself has narrowed down to what is needed.
  • #57,617
  • Edited 2:01am Aug 1, 2017 1:11am | Edited 2:01am
Yesterday eurusd and news events ----great learning for newbies here - can go back and find past Jupiter chart in June re trend.

eurusd - was long

m5 - sign of big buying at the bottom of pullback before pre news play. So price went down for some ducks.

1st news good for eurusd as expected recently.

So reaction - let's send it down to shake out any buyers and trap those bears - trap set.

But wait the bear not so strong now - what going on in all those candles?

Ok now let's go long where we want to go suckers - thanks next news too.

Pretty much standard playing around news in various guises - pre news set up/reaction/weakness/trap/whack.

How I saw it any way.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,618
  • Edited 4:47am Aug 1, 2017 4:21am | Edited 4:47am
An exercise I am doing for 3 legged animal mo practise, long eurusd short gbpusd short eurgbp, wait for awhile, for 1 hr, dance out of it.

But this is just demo dancing to practise against all scenarios.

Best practise if live capital is to only use the rotation when required, if not needed for rescue, it can be transferred for attack.
  • #57,619
  • Edited 6:05am Aug 1, 2017 4:23am | Edited 6:05am
Just read that facebook bots that were trading stuff with each other invented their own language to do so......think they killed em then.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,620
  • Aug 1, 2017 5:35am Aug 1, 2017 5:35am
Quoting CookieMonsta
An exercise I am doing for 3 legged animal mo practise, long eurusd short gbpusd short eurgbp, wait for awhile, for 1 hr, dance out of it. But this is just demo dancing to practise against all scenarios. Best practise if live capital is to only use the rotation when required, if not needed for rescue, it can be transferred for attack.

Hi Cookiemonsta

this what i have found...

every tool has its uses and is good at that job it was made/intended for but trying to use a hammer to undo a nut will make a mess and only take longer.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
12 traders viewing now