Scalping the EUR at the European open | Page 14 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trying scalping with a 1000 bucks - Scalping is expensive! 39 replies

EUR scalping at the European Open 11 replies

1M & 5M Scalping System (Scalping Paradise) 21 replies

30 second EURJPY Tokyo Open scalping 7 replies

Scalping Thread Open mind 2 replies

Attachments: Scalping the EUR at the European open
Exit Attachments

Scalping the EUR at the European open

  • #261
  • Jul 14, 2017 2:31am Jul 14, 2017 2:31am
For an end of week review for EUR/USD on the 30 m time frame we can see it has been a week of high volatility. No surprises here if it hasn't been a very profitable week for EUR scalpers. The most important thing is that we don't get burned with losses through not following the rules. Pay particular attention to spikes against the trend and spikes up towards new highs for signals to go into reverse. Such sharp spikes can be seen on Tuesday and Wednesday when profits were potentially very good. This is all good food for thought and serious contemplation. Follow the strategic rules and stick with the self-discipline to stay out of the market when there is no synchronicity and all will be well. Have great weekend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-07-14_08-22-21.jpg Size: 665 KB
Tellboy
  • #262
  • Jul 14, 2017 2:42am Jul 14, 2017 2:42am
Quoting tellboy
For an end of week review for EUR/USD on the 30 m time frame we can see it has been a week of high volatility. No surprises here if it hasn't been a very profitable week for EUR scalpers. The most important thing is that we don't get burned with losses through not following the rules. Pay particular attention to spikes against the trend and spikes up towards new highs for signals to go into reverse. Such sharp spikes can be seen on Tuesday and Wednesday when profits were potentially very good. This is all good food for thought and serious contemplation....
Thanks for the great advice!! Find your analysis very helpfill, although still struggling with the discipline side!!!
Have a great weekend too!!!!
  • #263
  • Jul 17, 2017 2:14am Jul 17, 2017 2:14am
Monday 17th July. Conflicting signals from the 7 am candles where they indicate to go short against a rising trend on EUR/USD and EUR/NZD. JPY is just channeling sideways along that daily pivot. With no synchronicity this is not a good set up for scalping today.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-07-17_08-09-22.jpg Size: 1.0 MB
Tellboy
  • #264
  • Jul 17, 2017 2:29am Jul 17, 2017 2:29am
Quoting tellboy
Monday 17th July. Conflicting signals from the 7 am candles where they indicate to go short against a rising trend on EUR/USD and EUR/NZD. JPY is just channeling sideways along that daily pivot. With no synchronicity this is not a good set up for scalping today. {image}
GM! Thanks for the confirmation , yea the market is not very generous lately. Testing a man's nerves and patience.
Wish you a nice week!
  • #265
  • Jul 17, 2017 9:20am Jul 17, 2017 9:20am
Quoting tellboy
Monday 17th July. Conflicting signals from the 7 am candles where they indicate to go short against a rising trend on EUR/USD and EUR/NZD. JPY is just channeling sideways along that daily pivot. With no synchronicity this is not a good set up for scalping today. {image}

Can I just clear something up on pair synchronisation,
Are we saying that all four pairs when the Euro is strong Are all synchronise together,
So if one is going in the opposite direction to the other 3 we have not got synchronisation, The reason I'm asking this is your 7 o'clock candle on the 15 minute chart. 3 of the pairs are RED and the other one is the GREEN, I was just wondering whether we could just trade two pairs EUR/USD and EUR/JPY as two synchronise pairs,
Or do we need all four pairs to confirm the synchronisation,
So all four pairs are GREEN equals buy EUR
All four pairs are RED equals sell EUR,
We do not enter the market if two are red and two are green.
PS, keep the good work up. I look forward to your explanation every morning,
thank you,
  • #266
  • Jul 17, 2017 9:40am Jul 17, 2017 9:40am
Quoting redfan
{quote} Can I just clear something up on pair synchronisation, Are we saying that all four pairs when the Euro is strong Are all synchronise together, So if one is going in the opposite direction to the other 3 we have not got synchronisation, The reason I'm asking this is your 7 o'clock candle on the 15 minute chart. 3 of the pairs are RED and the other one is the GREEN, I was just wondering whether we could just trade two pairs EUR/USD and EUR/JPY as two synchronise pairs, Or do we need all four pairs to confirm the synchronisation, So all four...
Synchronisation between all four pairs is almost guaranteed that they will all move in the same direction. If two are one way and two are the other it means that there is indecision for the EUR and whichever way they move is likely to falter. Check back through the charts and see if you can find an example of where two pairs went one way and two went the other with good scalps and let me know if you find one. We will all be interested if there is one. Thanks for the question.
Tellboy
  • #267
  • Jul 17, 2017 11:06am Jul 17, 2017 11:06am
Quoting tellboy
{quote} Synchronisation between all four pairs is almost guaranteed that they will all move in the same direction. If two are one way and two are the other it means that there is indecision for the EUR and whichever way they move is likely to falter. Check back through the charts and see if you can find an example of where two pairs went one way and two went the other with good scalps and let me know if you find one. We will all be interested if there is one. Thanks for the question.
Just wondered if EURCAD is also in the equation?
  • #268
  • Jul 17, 2017 11:09am Jul 17, 2017 11:09am
Quoting jmtini
{quote} Just wondered if EURCAD is also in the equation?
It can be if it fits. Often USD, JPY and CAD are in sync when AUD and NZD are not. Does this make sense?
Tellboy
  • #269
  • Jul 18, 2017 2:22am Jul 18, 2017 2:22am
Tuesday 18th July and a bit of a messy picture this morning. Very strong AUD and NZD pushing EUR down, but EUR/USD and EUR/JPY losing their synchronicity. The 7 am candles are projected from the 30 m time frame and do carry weight for NZD and AUD, so traders who followed the direction of the 7 am candle would have scored nicely on those pairs, but lost on JPY with an agonizing wait for USD. I'll give this morning two gains, a loss and an early exit.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-07-18_08-11-38.jpg Size: 1.1 MB
Tellboy
  • #270
  • Jul 18, 2017 8:44am Jul 18, 2017 8:44am
I think these four chart proves synchronisation,
EUR/NZD Was synchronised with EUR/AUD,
eur/nzd went 18 days in a bearish direction and only 4 day in a bullish direction,
eur/aud went 14days in a bearish direction and only 3 day in a bullish direction,
EUR/USD Was synchronised with EUR/JPY,
eur/usd went 15 days in a bearish direction and only 5 day in a bullish direction
eur/jpy 11 days in a bearish direction and only 3 day in a bullish direction
and in the second half of the charts. They ALL went in the same direction,
win ratios to the days which are not synchronised is pretty good, in fact if you could predict the trend and stay in the trade for longer periods over a couple of days, you could still come out with a big win,
I took these charts from the 29th May right up to yesterday, there was no need to count the Second-period I could quite clearly see, they were all going in the same direction,
if you look at today's daily candle there is only the EUR/AUD which is not synchronised,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 821 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.jpg Size: 950 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd.jpg Size: 1.0 MB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.jpg Size: 920 KB
  • #271
  • Jul 18, 2017 10:57am Jul 18, 2017 10:57am
Quoting redfan
I think these four chart proves synchronisation, EUR/NZD Was synchronised with EUR/AUD, eur/nzd went 18 days in a bearish direction and only 4 day in a bullish direction, eur/aud went 14days in a bearish direction and only 3 day in a bullish direction, EUR/USD Was synchronised with EUR/JPY, eur/usd went 15 days in a bearish direction and only 5 day in a bullish direction eur/jpy 11 days in a bearish direction and only 3 day in a bullish direction and in the second half of the charts. They ALL went in the same direction, win ratios to the days which...
Thank you for your input.
Tellboy
  • #272
  • Jul 19, 2017 2:53am Jul 19, 2017 2:53am
Wednesday 19th July and a very weak EUR across the board with AUD and NZD at the top of the currency strength leader board. In such circumstances all we need do is respond in the right direction to a pullback against the trend. The first to pullback was EUR/JPY at 6:30 followed by EUR/USD at 7. EUR/AUD pulled back a bit later at 7:30, but EUR/NZD plunged straight through the down side without any pullback at all. A bit of a mixed bag today with non-synchronized pullbacks, despite there being synchronicity in the direction and currency strengths.

Focus on the validity of the 7 am candle as an indicator of direction seems to be shifting. Let us focus our attention more on the timing of spiked pullbacks as in this example. It could be more profitable as market dynamics change.

I'll score today with

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-07-19_08-38-01.jpg Size: 1.0 MB
Tellboy
  • #273
  • Jul 19, 2017 3:22am Jul 19, 2017 3:22am
Quoting redfan
I think these four chart proves synchronisation, EUR/NZD Was synchronised with EUR/AUD, eur/nzd went 18 days in a bearish direction and only 4 day in a bullish direction, eur/aud went 14days in a bearish direction and only 3 day in a bullish direction, EUR/USD Was synchronised with EUR/JPY, eur/usd went 15 days in a bearish direction and only 5 day in a bullish direction eur/jpy 11 days in a bearish direction and only 3 day in a bullish direction and in the second half of the charts. They ALL went in the same direction, win ratios to the days which...
maybe this method should be called, "I'm staying out of the market today"
  • #274
  • Jul 19, 2017 8:42am Jul 19, 2017 8:42am
Quoting tellboy
Wednesday 19th July and a very weak EUR across the board with AUD and NZD at the top of the currency strength leader board. In such circumstances all we need do is respond in the right direction to a pullback against the trend. The first to pullback was EUR/JPY at 6:30 followed by EUR/USD at 7. EUR/AUD pulled back a bit later at 7:30, but EUR/NZD plunged straight through the down side without any pullback at all. A bit of a mixed bag today with non-synchronized pullbacks, despite there being synchronicity in the direction and currency strengths....

You probably have a good reason why the arrows you have marked are all different time candles on the 15 minute charts.
I see
EUR/USD 7.00
EUR/JPY 6.30
EUR/AUD 7.30
EUR.NZD 6.00
so everyone can follow the system, we need rules. If we are saying to get our indication to trade is all different time candles, I see this as a bit of hit or miss, can we not wait till all are synchronised, Anything can happen between 6 o'clock and 7.30 it's a long time when you are planning to scalp, plus we must have a defining rule went to stay out of the market,
I personally have been trading at 8:05 in the morning. I've been using my currency strength meter my over sold and over bought indicator, If the US and Japanese are below the euro in the strength meter, I've also watching what happens For the first five minutes of the London open with this information. If both candles are Green I buy euro, I stay in the trade from no more than 30 minutes,
for a sell everything is reversed,
  • #275
  • Jul 19, 2017 8:51am Jul 19, 2017 8:51am
Quoting redfan
{quote} You probably have a good reason why the arrows you have marked are all different time candles on the 15 minute charts. I see EUR/USD 7.00 EUR/JPY 6.30 EUR/AUD 7.30 EUR.NZD 6.00 so everyone can follow the system, we need rules. If we are saying to get our indication to trade is all different time candles, I see this as a bit of hit or miss, can we not wait till all are synchronised, Anything can happen between 6 o'clock and 7.30 it's a long time when you are planning to scalp, plus we must have a defining rule went to stay...

Hi Redfan.
The rules are already written on page one.
This thread is in the trading system section...
The Thread introducer just tweaks a bit twith the rules and so it looks more like a trading journal.(sry tellboy.. really a golden first page .. )
I´m observing this system for around 6 weeks, day by day and my personal meaning is :
It´s a wonderful system, very reliable as long as we follow 100% the rules.
I don t see many valid entries, but the rare entries play out..


Stay tuned
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #276
  • Jul 19, 2017 9:51am Jul 19, 2017 9:51am
Quoting Sesamstrasse
{quote} Hi Redfan. The rules are already written on page one. This thread is in the trading system section... The Thread introducer just tweaks a bit twith the rules and so it looks more like a trading journal.(sry tellboy.. really a golden first page .. ) Im observing this system for around 6 weeks, day by day and my personal meaning is : Its a wonderful system, very reliable as long as we follow 100% the rules. I don t see many valid entries, but the rare entries play out.. Stay tuned Guido
I have read all the rules,
There are three essential criteria that need to be synchronised for the best possible outcome. They are:
EUR is strong against all other currencies for long trades. (Weakest for short trades).
All chosen EUR pairs are trending in the same direction.
The 7 am candle for each selected pair on a 5, 10 or 15 M time frame are all pointing in the same direction (up for longs and down for shorts).
Everything else that is written is immaterial because rule 3 as already told you to go long short, there is no mention of checking the 6 o'clock candle the 6.30 candle,
the only time 6,30 is mentioned is to check the currency strength
there is only one important note and that is Note 1
If price has reached a new high or a sigificant resistance level there is a very high probability that price will retrace. Watch the 7 am candle for the signal to go short.
What I am questioning is why the arrows have been marked are all different time candles on the 15 minute charts.
I see
EUR/USD 7.00
EUR/JPY 6.30
EUR/AUD 7.30
EUR.NZD 6.00?????
Also, we are supposed to be scalping, how does checking the 6 o'clock candle help us make a trade at 7 o'clock,
  • #277
  • Jul 19, 2017 10:02am Jul 19, 2017 10:02am
Quoting Sesamstrasse
{quote} Hi Redfan. The rules are already written on page one. This thread is in the trading system section... The Thread introducer just tweaks a bit twith the rules and so it looks more like a trading journal.(sry tellboy.. really a golden first page .. ) Im observing this system for around 6 weeks, day by day and my personal meaning is : Its a wonderful system, very reliable as long as we follow 100% the rules. I don t see many valid entries, but the rare entries play out.. Stay tuned Guido
You are right, and the rules are clearly stated on the first page. When synchronicity is present with (a) the strength of the pair, (b) shape of the major trend, and (c) the 7a am candles all in the same direction then we can be assured of the best result possible. However, these are ideal conditions and do not occur every day. If they did then we would all be millionaires. The reality of the markets is that conditions do vary, and each day we can see how varied they are and to what extent how productive they are. It is hoped that followers of this system will learn when to stay out of the market and when to take positions that are profitable. Thanks for the discussion its all valid.
Tellboy
  • #278
  • Jul 19, 2017 10:36am Jul 19, 2017 10:36am
Quoting tellboy
{quote} You are right, and the rules are clearly stated on the first page. When synchronicity is present with (a) the strength of the pair, (b) shape of the major trend, and (c) the 7a am candles all in the same direction then we can be assured of the best result possible. However, these are ideal conditions and do not occur every day. If they did then we would all be millionaires. The reality of the markets is that conditions do vary, and each day we can see how varied they are and to what extent how productive they are. It is hoped that followers...

Chapeau!

Wise words.
Thanks a lot
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #279
  • Jul 19, 2017 10:55am Jul 19, 2017 10:55am
Quoting Sesamstrasse
{quote} Chapeau! Wise words. Thanks a lot Guido
Tellboy, where can i find the currency meter that you use, the one i have downloaded is difficult to read!! It might have been mentioned in the thread before, but i somehow missed it. Much appreciated,,
  • #280
  • Jul 19, 2017 12:44pm Jul 19, 2017 12:44pm
Quoting Goyatrade
{quote} Tellboy, where can i find the currency meter that you use, the one i have downloaded is difficult to read!! It might have been mentioned in the thread before, but i somehow missed it. Much appreciated,,
My currency strength table is part of the platform I use with the broker IG Index. It is built into their Pro Real Time software.
Tellboy
1 trader viewing now