Market View; World Stock Indexes; Trading Journal

Oil has prolonged its recent rise, even in the face of the release of energy reserves by the Department of Energy. Oil stocks increased by 118,000 barrels last week, compared to forecasts of a drop of 2.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 894 thousand barrels, compared to an expected decrease of about 288 thousand barrels. From a technical point of view, Brent is faced with a zone of resistance formed by the 48.33 / 49.15 levels.

Yesterday, the DAX broke the support formed by the area of 12490/12500, which constituted a relevant short / medium technical barrier. It is important to emphasize that in the last 12 months, the stock markets have not suffered any corrections worth noting. The only falls that deserve mention were the ones that followed Brexit and the election of Donald Trump but lasted only a few hours. So if S & P, which we consider to be the leading index of world markets, start trading below 2419 then the likelihood of a larger correction than witnessed in recent months will begin to be significant.

Asian markets closed with contained variance, despite the positive news coming from the Chinese economy. In June, the Caixin PMI index reached 50.4, above the estimated 49.4 and 50.0, which separates a cycle of expansion from a contraction cycle. Unlike the official PMI index prepared by the state authorities, the Caixin PMI index, calculated by a private institution, is compiled through surveys of small and medium private enterprises. These companies are more representative of the more dynamic areas of the Chinese economy than the large state-owned enterprises, which are at the heart of the official PMI index.

Gold is at a critical level and is about to test the 200 week moving average, the last stand of the bulls, plus it is also aligned with the upward trend line.

During the past month, car sales in the US fell 3%, being the 6th consecutive monthly decline. Sales of Fiat Chrysler fell 7.40%, Ford’s 5%, General Motors 4.70% and those of Korea’s Hyundai-Kia decreased 15%. On the contrary, sales of Nissan, Toyota and Honda showed slight increases in sales, although these were not enough to offset the falls in Detroit (which remains the heart of the American automotive industry). Volkswagen sales grew 11% year-on-year, when the level of sales was very low, although this increase fell short of estimates.

Asian markets closed mostly with modest losses. The fall of oil and the rise of yields in most of the countries of this region. In Japan, 30-year yields peaked in the last 4 months (0.883%). However, the political situation on the Korean peninsula continues to generate some concern. Following the launch of a supposedly intercontinental missile by North Korea, the US and South Korea carried out several exercises that involved the launching of missiles, and the US ambassador to the UN admitted using force to stop North Korea’s nuclear program.

Asian markets closed with contained losses, with the exception of the Shanghai stock exchange which ended in a slight rise. The fall of oil and the rise in yields were the themes of the session. In Japan, news circulated that the Central Bank intervened in the debt market, acquiring bonds, in order to halt the sharp rise in yields.

Positive signs given by the US employment report boosted Asian indices. The US and US consumers are important customers of the Asian economies' exports, so the employment report has a direct and relevant impact on the respective exchanges.

The debt market has been driven by a rise in state yields, caused by the words of the Fed and ECB members. Interestingly, at this stage of the market, European yields seem to be influencing American ones, not the other way round, as is usually the case.

In the pre-opening, the European indices traded with contained variations. Although the sentiment is relatively neutral, signals from the debt market are somewhat worrisome. German bond yields were trading above 0.60%, prolonging the rise initiated after the break of the 0.50% technical barrier. Now, institutional investors are carefully monitoring Italian 10-year yields, which trade today at 2.29%.

In the pre-opening, the indices of the Old Continent did not show a definite trend. Today's session should be divided into two parts. The first, in the morning, should be characterized by some tranquility with investors following the trend of state yields. The second part of the session will begin with the publication of the results of US banks and the spread of inflation in the US. The latter figure is expected to have an impact on European yields and consequently on the stocks of the Old Continent. Debt markets are highly interdependent, so an increase in yields in the US (if the consumer price index indicates higher inflation) will have an impact on European debt interest rates, which in turn will have an impact stocks in this region. The evolution of yields, more precisely, the differential between US and European interest rates, has been one of the variables that has conditioned the Euro / Dollar exchange rate. In recent weeks, the Euro has appreciated not only against the Dollar, which began to weigh on the European export sector. Today, it was reported that sales in Europe grew only 2.10% in June (compared to June 2016). The country with the highest growth was Italy, which contrasts with the falls in Germany and the United Kingdom. In the latter country, uncertainty over Brexit and the devaluation of Libra (which makes imported vehicles more expensive) has inhibited buyers. The strongest brands were Toyota (+ 13% of sales) and Fiat (+ 7.90%).

In the pre-opening, the European indices traded with some gains. In an early stage, the good performance of Wall Street should boost European markets. However, this momentum should be limited by the strength of the Euro. At a time when the Euro appreciates sharply against the US dollar, European markets tend to underperformance with their US counterparts. Despite the dynamism of domestic consumption and investment, European companies continue to have high exposure to external markets. In these economies, many of them going through a less dynamic phase (such as China and on a larger scale to Brazil), the companies of the Old Continent face strong competition from American and Asian companies. The strength of the Euro exacerbates the competitiveness of these companies and also decreases the value of revenues and profits generated there.

European markets closed lower due to the behavior of the Euro against the Dollar and some business results. In fact, the Euro reached the maximum since May 2016 against the US Dollar, which harmed the European export sector, such as industrial companies and car manufacturers.

In the pre-opening, the European indices traded with modest gains. Under normal conditions, the good performance of the Nasdaq would be enough to drive European markets more decisively, but at the present stage the strength of the Euro represents a permanent obstacle to the Stocks of the Old Continent. Yesterday, the common currency approached 1.16, penalizing European markets and especially German, which historically has a greater correlation with the European currency due to the weight of the export sector in the index. Investors will now monitor the ECB's meeting tomorrow and the long-term resistance of the Euro / Dollar exchange formed by the 1.16 / 1.1616 zone.

In the pre-opening, the European indices traded with modest gains. The morning will be based on expectations of the ECB. At today's meeting of this institution, investors will try to find clues as to when this institution will start the process of normalizing its monetary policy. This standardization should be based on the progressive reduction of the asset purchase program and the gradual rise in interest rates.

European markets ended on a downward trajectory, due to the continued appreciation of the Euro and some business results that disappointed the market. The Euro appreciated about 0.20% against the Dollar, a day after Mario Draghi alluded to expectations regarding inflation and the potential end of the asset program. In fact, Mario Draghi pointed to the existence of plans to begin the discussion regarding the gradual reduction of the program of quantitative easing already next autumn. In terms of business, the car sector was among the worst performers, given some published results. On a counter-cycle was Vodafone which advanced 0.85%. The British operator reported quarterly revenues of € 10300 M. (2.20% over the same quarter of 2016), which exceeded analysts’ estimates.

Last friday US indices closed without major swings. American investors have shown little permeability to the strong devaluations observed in Europe. The reason for such resilience is that the strength of the Euro (dollar weakness) detracts from European companies' competitiveness but adds to American companies. Perhaps the American indices would have been able to prolong this week's rally if General Electric's results had not been badly received by the market. Given the relevance of GE in the American industry and in the global economy, the devaluation of its stock had a direct impact on many stocks and on the general sentiment of investors. Despite all the symbolism that GE assumes, its disappointing results do not shake the positive signs given by the earnings season as a whole.

In the pre-opening, the European indices traded without great variations. The Euro was trading at a slight rise, which should exert pressure on European markets. Yesterday, it should be noted that 10-year German yields were trading again at levels below 0.50%. Now, if German yields remain below 0.50%, the odds, from a technical point of view, of a yield decline are higher than a rise. With regard to the Euro, the most relevant is not so much the German interest rates, but its comparison with the American ones. While the decline in US yields is more pronounced than that of the German bunds, the trend will be for the Euro to appreciate, with all other factors remaining constant. In sectoral terms, the car should deserve a particular highlight. Having been one of the driving forces behind European (and especially German) markets in recent years, in recent months this sector has been under sales pressure as a result of the scandals of pollutant gas emissions, the strength of the Euro and the drop in sales in Europe, After 6 years of expansion.

Asian markets closed without a common trend, though prudence over today’s Fed meeting has dominated investor sentiment. The Nikkei closed with gains near 0.50%, favored by the devaluation of the Yen against the Dollar.

After giving some signs of correction yesterday, the Fed's statement, which fits sharply in investors' expectations, boosted the common currency. Generally, when a given event fits investors' expectations, there is a tendency for financial markets to continue, at least in the short term, the underlying trend. This pattern is different from that in which the market expects a favorable factor or event and reacts in advance, so-called buy on rumors sell on facts.