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Theory of "8-Currencies - Overbought/oversold"

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Mar 6, 2018 11:50am Jul 15, 2017 3:00pm | Edited Mar 6, 2018 11:50am
Ladies & Gentlemen
Hi all
--https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=739623
Assume the folllowing 8 reasons:
1) EUR is under oversold
2) GBP is under overbought
3) AUD is under overbought
4) NZD is under overbought
5) USD is under oversold
6) CAD is under overbought
7) CHF is under oversold
8) JPY is under oversold

4 currencies were plunging up last period, while other r were plummeting down.

Theory of "8-Currencies "Overbought/oversold" will be named from now ans on "Octagon-Theory"

Look at pic:
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 11_Elixir_Relative_Currency_Strength.ex4   111 KB | 1,232 downloads | Uploaded Jul 16, 2017 11:57pm
Forex Philosopher
  • #2
  • Jul 15, 2017 3:04pm Jul 15, 2017 3:04pm
almost it i impossible for all currencies to continue its previous direction.
at some point of time, some of not all will reflect either:
1) as retracement
2) or as a new long opposite trend.

so there will be a 4 compination between bought-currrencies against sold cureenceis.

example: USDCAD - GBPJPY - EURGBP - CADCHF
AS U SEE: no repetition of any currency.
Forex Philosopher
  • #3
  • Jul 15, 2017 3:09pm Jul 15, 2017 3:09pm
USDCAD - BUY
AUDJPY - SELL
EURGBP - BUY
CADCHF - SELL
-
or
---
AUDUSD- SELL
GBPJPY - SELL
EURCAD - BUY
GBPCHF - SELL
Forex Philosopher
  • #4
  • Jul 15, 2017 3:10pm Jul 15, 2017 3:10pm
in this thread:

we will follow market according to this theory.

follow up.
ADVANTAGES:
1) Balancing risks (diffusion of the risk)
2) when combined with "Muddaraj theory" - it is expected to give P/E, MORE THAN EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL RISK.\
Forex Philosopher
  • #5
  • Jul 15, 2017 8:11pm Jul 15, 2017 8:11pm
Your strategy is interesting and I will test it as well.

How do you determine which 4 pairs are overbought and oversold?

Also, I believe you omitted NZD and used GBP twice in labeling buy/sell positions.


USDCAD - BUY
AUDJPY - SELL
EURGBP - BUY
CADCHF - SELL -- NZDCHF - SELL (?)
-
or
---
AUDUSD- SELL
GBPJPY - SELL
EURCAD - BUY
GBPCHF - SELL -- NZDCHF - SELL (?)
  • #6
  • Jul 15, 2017 10:54pm Jul 15, 2017 10:54pm
Quoting Master-Mind
Ladies & Gentlemen Hi all -- Assume the folllowing 8 reasons: 1) EUR is under oversold 2) GBP is under overbought 3) AUD is under overbought 4) NZD is under overbought 5) USD is under oversold 6) CAD is under overbought 7) CHF is under oversold 8) JPY is under oversold 4 currencies were plunging up last period, while other r were plummeting down. Theory of "8-Currencies "Overbought/oversold" will be named from now ans on "Octagon-Theory" Look at pic: {image}
Can you provide a real-life example of it for last week?
It takes money to make money.
  • #7
  • Jul 16, 2017 1:21am Jul 16, 2017 1:21am
Quoting Master-Mind
Ladies & Gentlemen Hi all -- Assume the folllowing 8 reasons: 1) EUR is under oversold 2) GBP is under overbought 3) AUD is under overbought 4) NZD is under overbought 5) USD is under oversold 6) CAD is under overbought 7) CHF is under oversold 8) JPY is under oversold 4 currencies were plunging up last period, while other r were plummeting down. Theory of "8-Currencies "Overbought/oversold" will be named from now ans on "Octagon-Theory" Look at pic: {image}
I have a better idea.

If anyone has access to individual currency indexes. such as just ausd chart and just usd chart and so on.

Look for the most overbought currency and the most oversold currency individually and trade them.

Say if USD was the most oversold and GBP was the most overbought, you would sell GBP/USD.

what ya think?
  • #8
  • Jul 16, 2017 8:49am Jul 16, 2017 8:49am
Quoting hsav646
Your strategy is interesting and I will test it as well. How do you determine which 4 pairs are overbought and oversold? Also, I believe you omitted NZD and used GBP twice in labeling buy/sell positions. USDCAD - BUY AUDJPY - SELL EURGBP - BUY CADCHF - SELL -- NZDCHF - SELL (?) - or --- AUDUSD- SELL GBPJPY - SELL EURCAD - BUY GBPCHF - SELL -- NZDCHF - SELL (?)
YES BROTHER
it is unintentional mistake
it is my pleasure you get the point.
-

Q: How do you determine which 4 pairs are overbought and oversold?
Ans:
1---You can use XXX-Index for all 8 currencies individually ---- XXX = any currency
or
2---you can estimate the volatility movements in pips last week -- last 9-days, last 3 months etc . .
or
3---you can use my non-executive expert named Currency_Strength on n-period.
or
4---you can use RSI, or AO, or MACD (any indicator evolving form Moving Averages)
or
5---you may have more smart criterion
Forex Philosopher
  • #9
  • Jul 16, 2017 8:54am Jul 16, 2017 8:54am
Quoting Harpy
{quote} Can you provide a real-life example of it for last week?
I prefer to start Coming week, test for one month.
we will use: Currency Strength for 3-days.

but for previous week it is very simple to estimate the results on any criterion,
Forex Philosopher
  • #10
  • Jul 16, 2017 8:55am Jul 16, 2017 8:55am
Quoting hibra68
{quote} Look for the most overbought currency and the most oversold currency individually and trade them.
Good
This is the core of my expert.
will be attached later to thread.
Forex Philosopher
  • #11
  • Edited 9:11am Jul 16, 2017 8:59am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} You are indeed "Master of the Mind" my friend!
Yes
absolutely , that is true
we could chirruping together like birds, like lovers
now my friend we will post Currency_Strength expert (non-executive)
it calculate the percentage for all currencies which one is the strongest and which one is the weakest - plus for others in-between,

later on it will be injected by the illusion of Mudarraj - my previous topic (check my thread history)
also all ideas here may go better through other ideas-inoculation\
s
Forex Philosopher
  • #12
  • Jul 16, 2017 9:24am Jul 16, 2017 9:24am
Quoting hibra68
{quote} I have a better idea. If anyone has access to individual currency indexes. such as just ausd chart and just usd chart and so on. Look for the most overbought currency and the most oversold currency individually and trade them. Say if USD was the most oversold and GBP was the most overbought, you would sell GBP/USD. what ya think?
look
sometime it fails
two weeks ago CADJPY was the strongest.
week after it continue to head up.

last week, audchf was the most volatile (AUD strongest, CHF weakest) --let us keep our eyes on next week!
please observe it!!
Attached Image
Forex Philosopher
  • #13
  • Jul 16, 2017 9:31am Jul 16, 2017 9:31am
C0D0
C0D1
C0D2

What are they? & What is the difference?
C: Candle
D: Degree
Attached Image
Forex Philosopher
  • #14
  • Jul 16, 2017 9:53am Jul 16, 2017 9:53am
Quoting Master-Mind
C0D0 C0D1 C0D2 What are they? & What is the difference? C: Candle D: Degree {image}
Interesting Concept Master-Mind...

You said C: Candle D: Degree, but Could you explain what exactly C0D0 C0D1 etc... means?

Thanks
  • #15
  • Jul 16, 2017 6:11pm Jul 16, 2017 6:11pm
Quoting Master-Mind
{quote} YES BROTHER it is unintentional mistake it is my pleasure you get the point. - Q: How do you determine which 4 pairs are overbought and oversold? Ans: 1---You can use XXX-Index for all 8 currencies individually ---- XXX = any currency or 2---you can estimate the volatility movements in pips last week -- last 9-days, last 3 months etc . . or 3---you can use my non-executive expert named Currency_Strength on n-period. or 4---you can use RSI, or AO, or MACD (any indicator evolving form Moving Averages) or 5---you may have more smart criterion...
I'm actually testing PVSRA Currency Strength Alert...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 52 KB


Top 4 are oversold, bottom 4 are overbought.
  • #16
  • Jul 16, 2017 6:14pm Jul 16, 2017 6:14pm
However, at the time I entered the trades, here's how they lined up...

Oversold - JPY, CHF, AUD, USD

Overbought - GBP, NZD, EUR, CAD
  • #17
  • Jul 16, 2017 7:53pm Jul 16, 2017 7:53pm
Here are the currency strengths at the moment...

Attached Image


Once the pairs have all switched from oversold to overbought (and vice versa),
I will post a screenshot of the P/L.

That may be a good time to exit and take new positions?
  • #18
  • Jul 16, 2017 8:24pm Jul 16, 2017 8:24pm
Positive territory...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 58 KB
  • #19
  • Edited Jul 17, 2017 12:45pm Jul 16, 2017 8:51pm | Edited Jul 17, 2017 12:45pm
Quoting hsav646
Here are the currency strengths at the moment... {image} Once the pairs have all switched from oversold to overbought (and vice versa), I will post a screenshot of the P/L. That may be a good time to exit and take new positions?
Let's not forget that Currency Strength along with all the derivatives based on price vs time also becomes outdated on the next tick (or 4ticks across 4 pairs in this instance). With that said, Currency Strength (I like to refer as Economic Strength) is engraved in the DNA of how currency markets are "designed"...with the emphasis on "Design" and not "Function". Design because it is absolutely a key requirement on how global central banks manipulate their local money flows, trade balance etc Global economic dynamics is already reflected in currency strengths. Massive amounts of global money flows are reflected in currency strengths. Long, medium, short and microscopic trends are reflected in currency strengths. Currency Markets cannot and will not function without strong and weak hands across economies. Nothing is going to change this fundamental nature of this market.
There is a REASON why ALL commodities including gold and Oil are all priced in USD. Some fool jumps off the chair saying Gold is going higher or Oil is going lower. It's NOT! It's the pricing in USD so at the end of day, ALL tradeable instruments go up or down because of their related pricing in USD.
USD is KING. USD is what makes America a Super Power and NOT their Military Might! Military Might is there only as a means of deterrence against losers who are willing to blow themselves up AND to preserve the Global Dominance of USD. EVERYTHING IS USD STRENGTH OR USD WEAKNESS (and JPY during Risk on/off sentiment as a borrowing currency)

For me, I have played immensely with currency strengths over the years and the net result of that is there is NO MATHEMATICAL Formula that is tradable. There are only two ways (in my experience) is use Currency Strengths

 

  1. Help with Directional Bias to evaluate trends
  2. Strength/Weakness to gauge momentum is a very powerful tool required to minimize Broker manipulation during events and economic releases. Google Movers and Shakers Indicator on the FXCM Platform which sorts price strengths in real time.

Staying in my lane...
  • #20
  • Jul 16, 2017 11:59pm Jul 16, 2017 11:59pm
please non-executive expert, #1 post
save under "experts"
it is just a good assisting tool!
Forex Philosopher
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