Diversified Trend Trading Approach

On the subject of not having enough time to assimilate knowledge. If it is in written form, you are in luck:

http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/lazy-sk...ization-tools/

This is interesting. I am going to check it out.

I might see how the "Automatic Text Summarizer" handles some of those Top Trader Unplugged Transcripts. This could be a big timesaver. Have you used any of them?

Example 1:

Transcript
Andreas: Why add complexity if you don’t get paid for it. You have to get paid a lot to add complexity, otherwise the complexity is not worth having there. If you put the complexity in, you will have a much more difficult time executing it. It’s much less likely to work because it’s probably just over-optimized use. If you use ten indicators that have to be working together to give you the signals while also it just happens to work because you over-optimize it. You fitted it perfectly to the recent past. When I wrote my first book I thought that I made a very simple trading model. The whole point with the model that I show in the first book, Following the Trend is that it is supposed to be a very simple model to describe, generally, what the trend following user does. My biggest regret with that book is that I didn’t make it even more simple. Niels: “Much to my surprise no one raised that concern. I didn’t hear it once. Instead my book took off in a way that surprised both me and my publisher. After two years my publisher tells me that I, against all odds, ended up in the top 5% of finance book authors. It was a fun ride and I learned a lot along the way.” This is a quote from the preface of the latest book written by today’s guest. Introduction: Imagine spending an hour with the world's greatest traders. Imagine learning from their experiences their successes and their failures, imagine no more. Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged. The place where you can learn from the best hedge fund managers in the world, so you can take your manager due diligence, or investment career to the next level. Here's your host, veteran hedge fund manager, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen. Niels: Hey everyone, and welcome to another episode of Top Traders Unplugged. Thank you so very, very much for tuning in today. For those of you who are regular listeners, you know that my goal with the podcast is to share the stories of some of the great traders in the world and to ask those questions they don’t usually get asked. To help you get more clarity, confidence and courage to take your own trading or investment career a step further. Today you are listening to episode 91. If this is your first episode that you’ve heard, you might want to go back and listen to all the earlier conversations. Before we find out who’s on today’s show, I just want to mention that today’s episode is brought to you by Eurex. Given all the current market volatility relating to U.S. rate hikes and the slowdown in China, you’ll find some very useful ways of hedging your portfolio risk if you visit the Eurex website.

Summary:

When I wrote my first book I thought that I made a very simple trading model.

The whole point with the model that I show in the first book, Following the Trend is that it is supposed to be a very simple model to describe, generally, what the trend following user does. biggest regret with that book is that I didnt make it even more simple.

This is a quote from the preface of the latest book




Example 2:

Transcript:
Andreas: This is Andreas Clenow, Chief Investment Officer at ACIES Asset Management in Zurich and you’re listening to Top Traders Unplugged. Niels: By the way, if you want to read the full transcript of today’s episode just visit the TOPTRADERSUNPLUGGED.COM website and sign up to receive access to all of them. Now let’s get started with part 1 of my conversation. I hope you will enjoy it. Andreas, thank you so much for being with us today. I really appreciate your time. Andreas: Thank you Niels, happy to be here. Niels: Good, now Andreas, today we’re going to make full use of the many talents that you have. On one hand you are running your own systematic investment strategies, which requires a lot of the various disciplines that I often discuss with guests on the podcast, but also you allocate to external managers, which is a rare combination. So perhaps we can touch on this skillset as well. Of course many people know you as the author of two books. The first one, Following the Trend, which caters to an audience that is interested in the classical way of using trend following strategies on a basket of futures contracts. Your latest book, Stocks on the Move, which goes into why and how you need to trade stocks when applying a rules based approach. Is that a fair summary would you say? Andreas: Pretty much, yes. Niels: Good, now for full disclosure, Andreas, I read your first book a few years ago, so I may not remember all of the details, and I have read most of your latest book, leading up to our conversation today. I’m sure you will guide me to the juicier bits of both books during our talk. Before we jump in I just have this simple question that I try to ask all of my guests in order to appreciate the different answers there is to the question. Basically, it’s how you respond when a person you haven’t met before asks what you do. How do you explain what you do, Andreas? Andreas: Well I have this running joke back in Sweden when someone asks me this, not knowing the business what-so-ever, I just shrug and say that I make rich people richer. That might not be the most accurate description, but it’s fun enough. What do I do? I am Chief Investment Officer of a little bit different shop here in Zurich. Here we are a type of family office. That means that much of the capital that we manage belongs to us, the partners, me and my partner. That gives us a large degree of flexibility. We can do what we think makes sense with this pool of money. We can create our own strategies. We can take in investor money since we are also a licensed asset manager here in Europe. We can invest in other people’s products. We can do private equity deals. We can do all kinds of deals and investments that make sense.

Summary using Automatic Text Summarizer:
Andreas: This is Andreas Clenow, Chief Investment Officer at ACIES Asset Management in Niels: By the way, if you want to read the full transcript of todays episode just visit the Niels: Good, now Andreas, today were going to make full use of the many talents that you Niels: Good, now for full disclosure, Andreas, I read your first book a few years ago, so I may not remember all of the details, and I have read most of your latest book, leading up to






Mate.....How the hell do they do this? :-)

Devil is in the details. You just used too little words. If transcript has 5000 words, it cannot be summarized in 50.

I had best results using this:
https://www.tools4noobs.com/summarize/

It is best to experiment with settings to get the best ones.

Summary of some PDF:

Thanks very much for this R. It is a very handy tool. :-)

Dear Darth Vader,

While I am listening to the best traders unplugged and reading this thread, I have a question:

Why would you like to exchange this:



i.e. your mind and brain

for this



i.e bunch of robots.

Why not make use them together for semi-automatic solution i.e. discretionary estimating the market for choosing correct instruments/strategy/entries and then automatic maintaining the positions/portfolio/exits/adding positions by calculators?

I am listening now to this book:



And it turns out that best results are in simple algorithms using the supercomputer....

Interesting book mate. Let me know how you go with it. It's probably right down our alley :-)

In a nutshell R I think the brain is wasted on trying to navigate this market.

What the brain is best used for is creative problem solving in the world in which we have evolved. No algorithm can match us in our native domain. That IMO is the great gift evolution has given to us. Unfortunately the environment (a complex system) in which we have thrived and evolved is not the same system as the financial markets. If we had evolved in the financial markets over the course of eons then competitive pressures applied to our survival would necessitate that we would be adept at navigating this complex morass.

I personally think that the future of the financial markets is probably better left to 'Artificial Intelligence' that has evolved in that context .....but that is still a long way off IMO. Someone still needs to be the creator of the bots.....and that's where I reckon we should be investing our efforts. Over time, the creator of new bots will be replaced by AI and then one day...AI will look back and ask the question "who created us?" :-)

I am getting to the point now mate where I process info and react more slowly than I used to. I can still think well with coherent thought so my efforts are probably best invested in system design at this stage of my life-cycle ....where I leave the processing side of things to the bots.

PS..... "Best results from using simple algorithms with a supercomputer".....that makes sense. Our brains tend to like to make things more complex than they need to be :-)

Oh, look, someone made a summary: http://fourminutebooks.com/algorithm...ve-by-summary/

Starting portfolio in this DDT takes time to get to profits. After 2 weeks of DD now AUD and CAD pairs are making profit and portfolio is profitable.
Stopping portfolio is big no no.

Yep mate. It takes time to get the ball rolling given the average trade duration of wins versus losses. A portfolio always starts off its life in drawdown.

Power of horde/herd psychology:

Reason for dollar weakness today - weaker CPI and then:

Nice mate. You nailed your entry into this trend.

Food for Thought

Attached Image

1. Trend-following - A century of data suggests there is value
2. How to Start a Hedge Fund
3. Put into Perspective
4. It Takes a Theory to Beat a Theory: The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis
5. CTA Survey - Results: fees, markets, and investment methodology
6. Make a Big Kill Every Once in a While
7. Create the ultimate investment strategy by combining multiple independent models!
8. How to Calculate Trade Size
9. The Best Funds in the World?
10. Video: Max Drawdown
11. How Biases Affect Investor Behaviour
12. Top Traders Round Table – Abrams | Karahasanoglu | Lo #09
13. Top Traders Round Table – Abrams | Karahasanoglu | Lo #10


Enjoy

C

They almost got me here. Mind was telling me to exit, but rules are rules and trading mindfully helps.

Nice R

Surf is Picking Up

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Below are the weekly updated performance stats of the EDTT which is representative of the broader breakout techniques discussed in this thread. After a very dull drawn out period since June 2016 where we have simply been trying to keep our heads above water, this month gives us a glimmer of hope that directional momentum is beginning to return to the markets. Let's see where this leads us?

Base Model ("The once bitten twice shy version")
Below are the performance stats of the base model upon which we scale up or down to our liking using position sizing multipliers.


Unrealised Trades - Base Model

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Modest Scaling of Base Model ("I am a confident bastard version") - 2 x position sizing


Aggressive Scaling of Base Model ("I am a confident bastard with a death wish version") - 4 x position sizing



What's Trending well with these Models?








Aveagreatweekendtrendies :-)

C

A sublime set from Crazy P to signal the beginning of trend hunting season......

With those stats you should be managing hundreds of millions of dollars, why investors don't know about you and why they don't throw money at you?

Cheers R......if only those stats were from live trades. At the moment I am planning how to spend my virtual wealth on a virtual beach somewhere in Costa Rica :-)

The earlier you start with even little real capital, the better. The longer track history, the better.