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News Avoidance

  • Poll

  • What kind of news do you avoid
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  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 12, 2017 9:06am Jul 12, 2017 9:06am
I am starting this thread to get the collective opinions of those of you who avoid trading around news. I myself avoid trading 15-30 mins before the news. I make sure to only avoid high impact news events that affect my chosen pair aka the ones in red on the FX calendar and disregard all the medium to low impact events. What do you do? Do you avoid all news or just high impact? Just curious....
  • #2
  • Jul 12, 2017 9:19am Jul 12, 2017 9:19am
I avoid trading if the spread widens too much, news or not news.
  • #3
  • Jul 12, 2017 10:31am Jul 12, 2017 10:31am
Quoting Madinvestor
I am starting this thread to get the collective opinions of those of you who avoid trading around news. I myself avoid trading 15-30 mins before the news. I make sure to only avoid high impact news events that affect my chosen pair aka the ones in red on the FX calendar and disregard all the medium to low impact events. What do you do? Do you avoid all news or just high impact? Just curious....

Depends on your strategy.

Certainly today I would have been better off not trading, there was a speech from Yellen, however whenever I have done an analysis of winning or losing days with reference to news events I can find no significant statistical correlation for my strategies.
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #4
  • Jul 12, 2017 10:36am Jul 12, 2017 10:36am
Quoting GuyBaker
{quote} Depends on your strategy. Certainly today I would have been better off not trading, there was a speech from Yellen, however whenever I have done an analysis of winning or losing days with reference to news events I can find no significant statistical correlation for my strategies.
It's funny you mention that because I actually would have been better off staying in my trade today. It would have hit my target immediately, but instead I exited. I have always debated which would be a better approach, but I have never tracked what happens after enough detail. I guess I hate the uncertainty and figure it would add too much volatility to my strategy. Maybe it's because I use to be a stock trader and always avoided earnings too so it translated over to FX for me. Obviously for position traders, it's merely a small blurb in the larger picture, but for swing traders and day traders, it can be deadly.
  • #5
  • Jul 12, 2017 11:35am Jul 12, 2017 11:35am
Quoting Madinvestor
{quote} It's funny you mention that because I actually would have been better off staying in my trade today. It would have hit my target immediately, but instead I exited. I have always debated which would be a better approach, but I have never tracked what happens after enough detail. I guess I hate the uncertainty and figure it would add too much volatility to my strategy. Maybe it's because I use to be a stock trader and always avoided earnings too so it translated over to FX for me. Obviously for position traders, it's merely a small blurb in...

Sure it can make or break... The key is lots of data, what happened in the past?, it's all we have as a guide to the future. Trading is all about probability in my view.
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #6
  • Jul 12, 2017 12:27pm Jul 12, 2017 12:27pm
Where's the option : I'm not stupid - I trade high impact news only (instead of chasing my tail like 99% of traders)
  • #7
  • Jul 12, 2017 12:34pm Jul 12, 2017 12:34pm
Quoting GuyBaker
{quote} Sure it can make or break... The key is lot of data, what happened in the past?, it's all we have as a guide to the future. Trading is all about probability in my view.
I see what you mean. I plan to start tracking what if trades around news time and see if it impacts me favorably more so than not. I definitely agree with you that trading is a game of probability. That's why I love it. I come from a math background so my approach is pretty quantitative
  • #8
  • Jul 12, 2017 12:36pm Jul 12, 2017 12:36pm
Quoting Catch-22
Where's the option : I'm not stupid - I trade high impact news only (instead of chasing my tail like 99% of traders)
That's for the news trading thread lol. This is one is all about trader's who run from news. Sounds like you thrive with trading it haha
  • #9
  • Jul 12, 2017 12:52pm Jul 12, 2017 12:52pm
Anyone make profit on USDCAD's moves?
SVT refer to mql5 link
  • #10
  • Jul 12, 2017 12:55pm Jul 12, 2017 12:55pm
I avoid new entry orders every first friday of each month when Non-Farm Employment Change is getting announced.

Quoting SubheadSeven
Anyone make profit on USDCAD's moves?
USD/CAD gained me +38,3 Pips today..
  • #11
  • Jul 12, 2017 1:00pm Jul 12, 2017 1:00pm
Quoting M.Goldstein
I avoid new entry orders every first friday of each month when Non-Farm Employment Change is getting announced. {quote} USD/CAD gained me +38,3 Pips today..
Nice to hear that. I got 30 pips. it seems big players are focus on this pairs. Now CAD up 200+ pips.
SVT refer to mql5 link
  • #12
  • Jul 12, 2017 1:01pm Jul 12, 2017 1:01pm
Quoting M.Goldstein
I avoid new entry orders every first friday of each month when Non-Farm Employment Change is getting announced. {quote} USD/CAD gained me +38,3 Pips today..
Ugh..don't remind me about the CAD...I was short EUR/CAD and got out early right before the news and it continued trending....I still made a nice profit of 65 pips , but I would have made 147 pips smh...and yeah I agree. Avoid NFP like the plague.
  • #13
  • Jul 12, 2017 9:27pm Jul 12, 2017 9:27pm
Quoting Madinvestor
{quote} I see what you mean. I plan to start tracking what if trades around news time and see if it impacts me favorably more so than not. I definitely agree with you that trading is a game of probability. That's why I love it. I come from a math background so my approach is pretty quantitative

I mean lottttttts of data!, go back years and test your setups, if you are from a math background you will know that you need maybe as many as 10,000 setups to gain real confidence in statistical significance. Use a computer to do the testing, we humans are too susceptible to confirmation bias.
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #14
  • Edited 5:05am Jul 13, 2017 4:13am | Edited 5:05am
Quoting GuyBaker
{quote} I mean lottttttts of data!, go back years and test your setups, if you are from a math background you will know that you need maybe as many as 10,000 setups to gain real confidence in statistical significance. Use a computer to do the testing, we humans are too susceptible to confirmation bias.

it's not the number of setups that matters the most.. even with random entries you can survive that long.. it tells you something but ..

to confirm that you have an actual statistical edge...


- the strategy has to survive in the long term (eg. 4+ years), after experiencing any market conditions
- it has to work on several instruments
- it has to work if you change the entry and exit rules a little bit

note that said edge has nothing to do with probabilities, as we discussed here. it's about the "most likely".
  • #15
  • Jul 13, 2017 5:29am Jul 13, 2017 5:29am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} note that said edge has nothing to do with probabilities, as we discussed here. it's about the "most likely".
I kind of disagree with this part of your statement. I think you can have an edge using only probabilities. That's what quant traders do. They don't focus on pretty chart patterns to gain their edge. As @GuyBaker mentioned above, they use countless data sets and find statistical probabilities in data patterns to profit, which is what everyone essentially does that becomes profitable in the market whether they realize it or not. Most just do it in a less quantitative manner.
  • #16
  • Jul 13, 2017 5:32am Jul 13, 2017 5:32am
Quoting Madinvestor
{quote} I kind of disagree with this part of your statement. I think you can have an edge using only probabilities. That's what quant traders do. They don't focus on pretty chart patterns to gain their edge. As @GuyBaker mentioned above, they use countless data sets and find statistical probabilities in data patterns to profit, which is what everyone essentially does that becomes profitable in the market whether they realize it or not. Most just do it in a less quantitative manner.
what happened in the past does not guarantee anything.. sry but the probabilities are always 50/50, for everyone.
  • #17
  • Jul 13, 2017 7:00am Jul 13, 2017 7:00am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} what happened in the past does not guarantee anything.. sry but the probabilities are always 50/50, for everyone.

The past is all we have. Of course no guarantee that future will perform in the same way as the past. Even your assertion that a system should last four years, depends on the past, IE those four years. Back testing is the only method we have for testing our ideas against a wide range of market conditions, in statistical terms the past is no different from the future as long as care is taken not to curve fit our strategies to a given set of data. If it is 50/50 for all of all of the time that implies a random market with no possibility of acquiring an edge, if you believe that give up now, you are beaten, I know for sure that the market has memory and pockets of edge can be found. 10,000 events is a good number to be confident that an edge for your set up exists, then test it forward for maybe another 1000 before risking significant money. If a system cannot perform with historical data it is unlikely to perform going forward, however if a system can be show to perform on historical data (subject to the no curve fitting caveat) then of course it has a much better chance of performing going forward.
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #18
  • Jul 13, 2017 7:12am Jul 13, 2017 7:12am
Quoting GuyBaker
{quote} The past is all we have. Of course no guarantee that future will perform in the same way as the past. Even your assertion that a system should last four years, depends on the past, IE those four years. Back testing is the only method we have for testing our ideas against a wide range of market conditions, in statistical terms the past is no different from the future as long as care is taken not to curve fit our strategies to a given set of data. If it is 50/50 for all of all of the time that implies a random market with no possibility of...

That's what I think as well.. avoid "curve fitting", invest money that you can afford to lose.. have faith. BUT, wait a sec, do you mean testing 10,000 setups on a single instrument ? gee that seems impossible to me even over a 20 years period on a very volatile instrument.
  • #19
  • Jul 13, 2017 8:09am Jul 13, 2017 8:09am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} avoid "curve fitting".
That's the key right there...As long as you avoid that, you should be able to have a positive expectancy. It doesn't guarantee anything but you need at least that to feel confident that there is good chance of a positive outcome.
  • #20
  • Jul 13, 2017 9:01am Jul 13, 2017 9:01am
Quoting Madinvestor
{quote} That's the key right there...As long as you avoid that, you should be able to have a positive expectancy. It doesn't guarantee anything but you need at least that to feel confident that there is good chance of a positive outcome.
of course, to me it's 100% clear
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