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Scalping the EUR at the European open

  • #241
  • Edited 2:10am Jun 30, 2017 1:51am | Edited 2:10am
Friday 30th June. A tricky day today with all EUR pairs on the bottom of the strength list indicating weakness. EUR/USD price is above the daily pivot and showing an up trend with all others below the pivot and showing a down trend. There is clearly and absence of synchronicity and this indicates staying out of the market. But let's see what happens.

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As was expected from the conflicting indicators - indecision and confusion. Staying out is the best policy with such conflicts.
Tellboy
  • #242
  • Jun 30, 2017 12:38pm Jun 30, 2017 12:38pm
Quoting tellboy
Friday 30th June. A tricky day today with all EUR pairs on the bottom of the strength list indicating weakness. EUR/USD price is above the daily pivot and showing an up trend with all others below the pivot and showing a down trend. There is clearly and absence of synchronicity and this indicates staying out of the market. But let's see what happens. {image} As was expected from the conflicting indicators - indecision and confusion. Staying out is the best policy with such conflicts.
Horrible day wasn't it! I did trade EJ a bit but I must say it was not a great day. Should have stayed in bed!
  • #243
  • Jul 3, 2017 1:24am Jul 3, 2017 1:24am
Monday 3rd July and loads of conflict in the EUR market today. This chart was taken at 7:15 showing the conflicting signals of the 7 am candle on the 15 m charts. There is inconsistency in the major trends with the strong USD pushing EUR/USD down, but in conflict with EUR/JPY indicating a continuation to the upside. A weak NZD indicates EUR/NZD to the upside, but EUR/CAD wants to go down. Too much conflict and indecision means stay out of the market this morning.The fire emoji indicates staying our or you could get burned.

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Tellboy
  • #244
  • Jul 4, 2017 2:13am Jul 4, 2017 2:13am
Tuesday 4th July and loads of conflict with the EUR pairs this morning. The whole scenario was pre-empted by a drop in EUR/USD and EUR/JPY at 6 am. By 7 am on the 15 m time frame price had bounced off significant support levels and the 7 am candles tentatively indicated a pullback to the upside against the main trend. (Always tricky). At the same time EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD, both trending down had hit support levels. Altogether this scenario would have been very risky to trade, so the advice here, with no synchronicity anywhere to be seen, would be to stay out and observe, or just go back to bed. Risk being burned if you trade this scenario.

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Tellboy
  • #245
  • Jul 4, 2017 5:52am Jul 4, 2017 5:52am
Quoting tellboy
Here is a trading system that can produce 100 pips at the European open (8 am GMT) by trading a basket of four EUR pairs. Observation of price action reveals that when the EUR/USD pair moves, to too do other currrencies that are in synergy with the EUR/USD pair. Why trade the EUR/USD only when a 25 pip scalp on four synchronized pairs will meet the target of 100 pips. The set up rules are simple, and if followed will produce the desired result. There are three essential criteria that need to be synchronised for the best possible outcome. They are:...

Nice Correlation and strength breakout trading strategy. Thanks for sharing on FF. I love basket trading as well, keep up the good work.
R:R "Percentage Focus"
  • #246
  • Jul 5, 2017 2:42am Jul 5, 2017 2:42am
Wednesday 5th July. EUR has been bearish for a week or so and may have reached a bottom at 11350 with EUR/USD. All pairs showing a swing across the 100 ma on the 15 m charts with EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD taking the lead, not with a strong EUR, but with weak JPJ and NZD. Look at the currency strength leader board to see the JPY and NZD weak against all other currencies. JPY and NZD would have been a good basket trade currencies today.

The 7 am candles proved to be a reliable indicator, with the notable exception of EUR/NZD which actually turned out to be a good scalp from 8 am. (Sometimes we have to wait until 8 or after to catch the scalp).

Not a bad day with a few small scalps taken.


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Tellboy
  • #247
  • Jul 5, 2017 5:08am Jul 5, 2017 5:08am
Quoting tellboy
Wednesday 5th July. EUR has been bearish for a week or so and may have reached a bottom at 11350 with EUR/USD. All pairs showing a swing across the 100 ma on the 15 m charts with EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD taking the lead, not with a strong EUR, but with weak JPJ and NZD. Look at the currency strength leader board to see the JPY and NZD weak against all other currencies. JPY and NZD would have been a good basket trade currencies today. The 7 am candles proved to be a reliable indicator, with the notable exception of EUR/NZD which actually turned out to...
Wonderful for EU shorts yes! Got 45 pips this morning. Incredibly bearish
  • #248
  • Jul 6, 2017 2:32am Jul 6, 2017 2:32am
Thursday 6th July and it would appear that market dynamics have shifted our 7 am 'truth' candle to 7:30.

The first indicator of a move to the upside was given by a universal weakness in the JPY at 6 am. It pulled back a touch until 7 am when it showed us a hammer. Confirmation of a bullish direction came at 7:30 on EUR/JPY and EUR/USD. Agreement came at 7:45 with EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD when it was time to enter trades with all four pairs. A good day.

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Tellboy
  • #249
  • Jul 6, 2017 5:47am Jul 6, 2017 5:47am
Quoting tellboy
Thursday 6th July and it would appear that market dynamics have shifted our 7 am 'truth' candle to 7:30. The first indicator of a move to the upside was given by a universal weakness in the JPY at 6 am. It pulled back a touch until 7 am when it showed us a hammer. Confirmation of a bullish direction came at 7:30 on EUR/JPY and EUR/USD. Agreement came at 7:45 with EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD when it was time to enter trades with all four pairs. A good day. {image}

Your prediction this morning was absolutely spot on
PS. Your explanation was so clear anyone could follow it
keep the good work up,
  • #250
  • Jul 7, 2017 2:29am Jul 7, 2017 2:29am
Friday 7th July, and after the rally of yesterday little was expected for today. A weak NZD showed the first indication of a reinforcement to the upside at around 6 am where price bounced away from its daily pivot. The 7 am candle all indicated a bullish sentiment with the exception of the EUR/AUD due to a strong AUD. Pullbacks from AUD and NZD were a bit scary and required nerves of steel for those who took positions indicated by the 'slightly' bullish sentiment. Not a good scalping day, but it was worth a few pips for the cautious and patient who waited until after 8 am to take a little profit. I'll give this day just one

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Tellboy
  • #251
  • Jul 7, 2017 2:39am Jul 7, 2017 2:39am
Here is the end of week review for EUR/USD on a 30 m time frame. Notice the 7 am candles for their directional value. You may notice the a bearish bar at 6:30 often reverses to a bull bar at 7 and is then reinforced at 7:30. Correct me if I am wrong, but would it be wise to fade the 6:30 bear candle and go long to catch the 7 am bull bar and then go large with the reinforcement at 7:15 or 7:30? Worth a test next week?

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Tellboy
  • #252
  • Jul 10, 2017 2:23am Jul 10, 2017 2:23am
Monday 10th July and a bit of a scary day for EUR scalpers. A strong AUD combined with a weak JPY put EUR pairs in conflict with each other and EUR/USD clinging between 11,400 and its daily pivot. This was a day for subtle price action on the positive sentiment of EUR traders at the open. Following strictly to the rules of the strategy we would be inclined to resist entering the market, but EUR/AUD gave us a hammer at 6:30 supported by a EUR/JPY bull candle at 6:30. Not a particularly good day for scalping, but EUR pairs are still rising as I write at 8:22. I'll give today just two

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Tellboy
  • #253
  • Jul 10, 2017 2:49am Jul 10, 2017 2:49am
I checked all 4 candles at 7.30 they were all red. The min we hit 8.00 They all turned green,
at 8.30 they all turned red. I quickly bought at 8.00 and was out for 8.15 with a very good profit.
  • #254
  • Jul 10, 2017 3:40am Jul 10, 2017 3:40am
Quoting redfan
I checked all 4 candles at 7.30 they were all red. The min we hit 8.00 They all turned green, at 8.30 they all turned red. I quickly bought at 8.00 and was out for 8.15 with a very good profit.
Me too. It's called taking price action. I came away with £62 this morning. That's not bad for a couple of hours fishing, watching the float bobbing.
Tellboy
  • #255
  • Edited 2:17am Jul 11, 2017 12:10am | Edited 2:17am
Tuesday 11th July. This was the scenario at 6 am this morning. We can see clear divergences in the synchronicity between USD and JPY and between AUD and NZD. I don't see any possibility of a clear trading direction from these patterns at this time, so I'm being cautious to watch what happens.

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It is becoming increasingly evident that the EUR/JPY pair are an important indication of what is to come for other EUR pairs. A strong 7 am bull candle was supported by similar on the EUR/USD pair, even though it was, strictly speaking, counter-trend. The bull move was later reinforced by AUD and NZD at 7:45. So, by using caution with buy stops above the pullbacks on all pairs we came out with a reasonable profit.

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Tellboy
  • #256
  • Jul 12, 2017 2:12am Jul 12, 2017 2:12am
Wednesday 12th July and EUR/USD reached spitting distance from a new high at 11,500 after yesterday's rally for all EUR pairs. Reaching a new high is usually a pretty sure sign that price will retrace to the downside, and EUR/JPY paved the way by plunging through its daily pivot overnight. Reinforcement of the down move came with 7 am candles on all pairs, that is after EUR/USD broke its 20 ma. It is always tricky when the indicators go against the main trend, but that's how market sentiment works and we have to go with the flow or stay out.

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Tellboy
  • #257
  • Jul 13, 2017 2:07am Jul 13, 2017 2:07am
Thursday 13th July. A strong USD and NZD gave conflicting messages for EUR this morning with indecision creeping into the market. Conflicting 7 am candles indicated staying out of the market and this was realized with no definite price movement at 8 am. Stay out or get burned.

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Tellboy
  • #258
  • Jul 13, 2017 12:40pm Jul 13, 2017 12:40pm
Quoting tellboy
Thursday 13th July. A strong USD and NZD gave conflicting messages for EUR this morning with indecision creeping into the market. Conflicting 7 am candles indicated staying out of the market and this was realized with no definite price movement at 8 am. Stay out or get burned. {image}

That was good advice you gave this morning.
Should have stayed out. But when you are in a routine,
you need to have discipline
  • #259
  • Jul 14, 2017 2:13am Jul 14, 2017 2:13am
Friday 14th July and another scenario of mixed messages with no synchronicity in EUR pairs. When USD and JPY are out of sync with each other it is never a good sign. For EUR/USD and EUR/JPY the 7 am candle was indecisive whilst for AUD and NZD the signal was misleading in the immediate short term. These are all signals to not take any risks and stay out of the market. When there is no synchronicity and the indicators are undecided or giving mixed messages then it is always wise to exercise self-discipline and save your hard earned capital for a better day.

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Tellboy
  • #260
  • Jul 14, 2017 2:18am Jul 14, 2017 2:18am
Are you able to elaborate on how AUD & NZD was misleading?

The two pairs looked very synchronised and followed the truth candle.
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