Hi dear friends
i cant find dttr indicators there is 80 pages
please help me
i cant find dttr indicators there is 80 pages
please help me
Diversified Trend Trading Approach
- #1,602
- Edited 7:09am Jul 9, 2017 6:59am | Edited 7:09am
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
Hi dear friends i cant find dttr indicators there is 80 pages please help me
We use the standard deviation channel (SDC) which you should find on your MT4 Menu. Select from your menu "Insert - Channels - Standard deviation". I would set it as one of your favorites on your toolbar as this is the only tool we use for the discretionary techniques described in this thread. The only other charting tools we use are vertical and horizontal lines.
Mate....it is worthwhile having a read and getting familiar with the DTT before progressing to variants. As Ramadas mentioned there is no substitute for a bit of reading, as you need to get familiar with the nuances. The techniques described here are deceptively simple (in other words....there is a bit to them regarding how to interpret things correctly).
Cheers
C
- #1,604
- Jul 9, 2017 9:12am Jul 9, 2017 9:12am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: I am not a trader | 1,238 Posts
- #1,606
- Jul 10, 2017 8:10am Jul 10, 2017 8:10am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #1,607
- Edited 8:05pm Jul 10, 2017 8:44am | Edited 8:05pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
I found this clicking banner ad on Au Tra Sy blog. If this is true. how did they do it? http://www.wisdomtrading.com/futures...Traders+banner
Have a close look at the individual results of the systems. You need to make sure in comparisons that you are dealing with apples for apples. They certainly perform well on face value but have a look at the risk weighted returns as this tells all. It is a bit deceptive as these examples are highly volatile in terms of their distribution of returns. Ok for a risk junkie but not for me. For example have a look at the best performer (MeanSwing II EMD).
1. It has only been in operation since Oct 2012 (far shorter than the 17 year plus performance metrics of the CTA's we showcase in this thread).
2. CAGR is 60.97%;
3. Total trades is 53 (not a very large sample size for robustness testing);
4. Max Draw is 71.10% *gulp*....would you be prepared to tolerate that? Perhaps yes as a punt....... but a big NO if investing serious capital.
5. Plus it is a mean reverting system....which like all forms of mean reversion have significantly outperformed post GFC....but have significantly under-performed over the past 50-60 years. If market conditions change....like all negatively skewed strategies these will come undone quickly.
CAGR /DRAW is therefore 0.85 which is not crash hot considering the 5 year lifetime. (Compare that to our humble discretionary systems which granted have a shorter trading history....but are more robust in my opinion and profits are not reinvested). These results from Wisdom's systems rank pretty poorly when compared to the longer term CTA's which have been in operation far longer and therefore have experienced a far greater range of market conditions and market exposure.
Not bad.....but no cigar from my perspective and I wouldn't be prepared to allocate big bucks towards these options as they are too pumped up.
Compare this against my home grown fully automated solution (below) over the same time period from Oct 2012 to June 2017 where our capital grew from approx $3 - $6 or a 15.71% CAGR over the period and a max drawdown of 18%. If we scale this up 4x with position sizing, this would equate to a CAGR of approx 62.84% and max draw of 72%, which is a pretty similar result......and there is still a long way to go in improving the automated portfolio in terms of risk-weighted returns.
These results pale into insignificance when compared to the CTA's offering a track record of 17 plus years and a CAGR/DRAW over that period of between 0.4 - 0.8. These guys are the best in the world and the risk weighted results makes the jaw drop.
Anyone can pump up a strategy and in the retail world we are very good at that. The art lies in delivering sustainable risk-weighted returns. This falls on deaf ears in this forum.
PS I am not having a crack at Wisdom as they put out some good systems and you could do some good stuff using them in a portfolio....however I am having a crack at their risk exposures which are geared towards the greedy eyes of the retail investor.......and they could be more conservative in their posture as prudent investor offerings.
- #1,608
- Jul 10, 2017 9:16am Jul 10, 2017 9:16am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
{quote} Evening R :-) Have a close look at the individual results of the systems. You need to make sure in comparisons that you are dealing with apples for apples. They certainly perform well on face value but have a look at the risk weighted returns as this tells all. It is a bit deceptive as these examples are highly volatile in terms of their distribution of returns. Ok for a risk junkie but not for me. For example have a look at the best performer (MeanSwing II EMD). 1. It has only been in operation since Oct 2012 (far shorter than the 17 year...
Thank you for the explanation. I added some instruments so I will have 24 screens to look at. However 40 instruments/screens looks better... Is it getting better at 60 or 100?
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #1,609
- Jul 10, 2017 9:24am Jul 10, 2017 9:24am
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
{quote} Thank you for the explanation. I added some instruments so I will have 24 screens to look at. However 40 instruments/screens looks better... Is it getting better at 60 or 100? {image}
Hehehehe. You don't do things by half do you R?
- #1,610
- Jul 10, 2017 10:04am Jul 10, 2017 10:04am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
{quote} Hehehehe. You don't do things by half do you R?
It is like 4 HD monitors in one.
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #1,611
- Jul 10, 2017 2:40pm Jul 10, 2017 2:40pm
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
May 2017 Update to Fully Automated Portfolio Blend - An update of performance metrics from post 1404 I thought I would post an update to a portfolio blend that I am currently working on. Still a work in progress as portfolio development is a never-ending continuous exercise but here is the recipe so far: Trim down a mean reversion (retracement entry) strategy from the Bollinger Region in the direction of the prevailing trend; Liberally garnish with simple momentum breakout...
. You can just forget about the automatic trading and every half a year rotate ETF portfolio with the same results.... or come back to the light side of the Force, we have cookies 
from http://truthaboutetfrotation.com
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #1,612
- Edited 7:55pm Jul 10, 2017 5:58pm | Edited 7:55pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
{quote} I am sorry to be negative.... or maybe it is positive
Here is a tongue and cheek post I did that showcases how fund rotation using risk weighted performance measures for filtering options can create impressive performance metrics. Just note that the minimum investments required for the funds selected would be a barrier to achieving this outcome in practice. Still you can get some great results using fund of fund solutions.
- #1,613
- Edited 3:18am Jul 11, 2017 1:14am | Edited 3:18am
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing - Updated 28 June 2017
Abstract
In this article, the authors study the performance of trend-following investing across global markets since 1880, extending the existing evidence by more than 100 years using a novel data set. They find that in each decade since 1880, time series momentum has delivered positive average returns with low correlations to traditional asset classes. Further, time-series momentum has performed well in 8 out of 10 of the largest crisis periods over the century, defined as the largest drawdowns for a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. Lastly, time series momentum has performed well across different macro environments, including recessions and booms, war and peacetime, high- and low-interest rate regimes, and high- and low-inflation periods.
....and commentary on the research paper from Michael Melissino
Enjoy
C
Abstract
In this article, the authors study the performance of trend-following investing across global markets since 1880, extending the existing evidence by more than 100 years using a novel data set. They find that in each decade since 1880, time series momentum has delivered positive average returns with low correlations to traditional asset classes. Further, time-series momentum has performed well in 8 out of 10 of the largest crisis periods over the century, defined as the largest drawdowns for a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. Lastly, time series momentum has performed well across different macro environments, including recessions and booms, war and peacetime, high- and low-interest rate regimes, and high- and low-inflation periods.
....and commentary on the research paper from Michael Melissino
Enjoy
C
- #1,614
- Jul 11, 2017 2:17am Jul 11, 2017 2:17am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Crisis alpha incoming?
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #1,616
- Jul 11, 2017 6:04am Jul 11, 2017 6:04am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Time manipulation
My mind has funny ideas...
Since we are trading charts and we don't have to look at the same time frames as others (no S/R) and we need more charts (diversification).....
What if difference between time frames is of factor 3 instead of 4-5?
I am presenting to you time frames 90 minutes, 270 minutes (4.5 hours) and 810 minutes (13.5 hours):
Then we have 40.5 hours, 121.5 hours (5 days), then 364.5 hours (15.18 days) and then 45.56 days.
So instead of 6 time frames we can have 8 time frames (including 30m)
My mind has funny ideas...
Since we are trading charts and we don't have to look at the same time frames as others (no S/R) and we need more charts (diversification).....
What if difference between time frames is of factor 3 instead of 4-5?
I am presenting to you time frames 90 minutes, 270 minutes (4.5 hours) and 810 minutes (13.5 hours):
Then we have 40.5 hours, 121.5 hours (5 days), then 364.5 hours (15.18 days) and then 45.56 days.
So instead of 6 time frames we can have 8 time frames (including 30m)
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #1,617
- Jul 11, 2017 7:16am Jul 11, 2017 7:16am
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
Time manipulation My mind has funny ideas... Since we are trading charts and we don't have to look at the same time frames as others (no S/R) and we need more charts (diversification)..... What if difference between time frames is of factor 3 instead of 4-5?
- #1,618
- Jul 11, 2017 7:26am Jul 11, 2017 7:26am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
{quote} Nice R. I think your selection shows far better applied logic than mine. With your interval selection there is a better chance of selecting a better range of trend and swing components and having more diverse timeframe diversification.
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #1,620
- Jul 11, 2017 8:06am Jul 11, 2017 8:06am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)