Brexit Chief Hamstrung by May's Tough Stance, Ex-Aide Tells BBC | Forex Factory

  • Brexit Chief Hamstrung by May's Tough Stance, Ex-Aide Tells BBC

    From bloomberg.com

    U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s inflexible position in negotiations to leave the European Union has made the task more difficult for Brexit Secretary David Davis, a former aide said in a BBC interview. James Chapman, who was Davis’s chief of staff until last month, said May’s “absolutist” stance on ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice over the U.K. is among issues that has “hamstrung” Davis as Brexit talks begin, according to the BBC report. “If she doesn’t, in my point of view, show more flexibility, show more pragmatism than she did demonstrate in the Home Office, she won’t ... (full story)

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Devauxt
Jul 6, 2017 1:55am
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Quoting Magog
{quote} Cliff - not everything you disagree with can be dismissed as hack journalism - did you even read the article? It was merely referencing a report by Oxford Economics which stated A report from Oxford Economics predicts the UK will strive ahead of its Eurozone peers over the next five years. The UKs economy is forecast to grow 1.8 per cent between 2017-2021 as Britain leaves the EU. The key words here are forecast and leave EU - UK, I agree, is not performing too well atm but this is a direct result of our membership of EU, soon to be corrected...
Isn't it amazing that some people think that the UK can only ever be an appendage of the EU and that the UK is utterly incapable of success in its own right? Oh ye of little faith
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Bones
Jul 4, 2017 8:42am
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lol most of your comment's have no connection to whats going on
Your views are more ideological weighted liberal dem policies
when we voted leave you were very happy with the doom and gloom outlook.
no clue what next at all
no idea where the UK majority sit ,so I guess you been in your new home quite some time



[quote=cliffedwards;10051267]While it is interesting to shoot the breeze on price elasticity (economics 101) its is a complete waste of time in the context of the issues confronting us as Traders in understanding long term UKs economic future and whither the GBP.
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Bones
Jul 3, 2017 7:17am
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lets see the deal with our closest friends ,
funny US not on our doorstep

"The United States received the most British export goods last year, followed by Germany and France."
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Bones
Jul 5, 2017 8:09am — Edited
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you have to understand the probabilities of long wicks to know your be burned investing on the long side
what your seeing is consolidation now
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Magog
Jul 6, 2017 11:30am
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Quoting barkie
{quote} Don't forget to tell us HOW the EU killed your productivity LOL Hint: inwork benefits means labor is cheap means no technology means productivity going nowhere. UK= socialist merry-go-round economy.
UK economy is 4 times the size of Holland - a natural, unfortunate consequence of size is a hit on productivity- This will, however, be reversed, in spades, when we escape the shackles of the schlerotic over-regulated EU
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Bones
Jul 3, 2017 7:12am
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the reality is EU moves forward with a x billion bill out of thin air, public wont give two hoots about a trade agreement like every other country outside, trade will continue ,probably EU imports would fall further thats great
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Bones
Jul 3, 2017 7:33am — Edited
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count the top 5-6 countries as a real loss ,forget the others more as we go down
lets not say all those people is the real market for us even tho there on the doorstep as said
Poland sell us double what we sell them
Germany would suffer the most with no deal
thing is we can react to other trade deals -low tax system
un like lumbering EU
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Bones
Jul 4, 2017 5:51am — Edited
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btw I would prefer no tax ,tax will be bad both sides
free trade is the very best set up which UK seeks worldwide ,so long as standards are kept
EU don't think economically but self preservation ,so I have to say the deal will fail ,even this first hurdle

These taxes in a competitive market hit the supplier most
essentially thats another tax on their most successful markets + less sale's
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Bones
Jul 4, 2017 8:17am — Edited
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Well as usual Id disagree ,
was looking at Bmw but apply any competitive product the supplier picks up the tax..most likely..on most items
So without looking you think the consumer picks the bill up and danger is to the importing country

You carry on feeling this is all about money ,id rather be poorer than continue importing labour and a big section of the vote was just that.
Maybe UK have a stronger Identity than the rest of the other 6 nations that count (to UK) in Europe ,thats probably a fact
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Bones
Jul 4, 2017 9:05am
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Give me your expert model what happens if 10% is added to all cars

Quoting cliffedwards
Hidden
well congrats on your homegrown-self-taught economics.// and your self ascessment of your pragmatic qualities. Nothing wrong with that except that the driver for these negotiations is NOT ABOUT economics.. Doh!??[/quote]
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Bones
Jul 4, 2017 9:41am
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its not that Cliff its more you have less opinion of everyone around
I think it is relevant to forward think what will happen should we go down the seemingly obvious path

At this point unless the so called bill is less/gone ,I don't see the route forward at such an early stage to ever get close to any agreement

Therefore I'm not considering what that agreement will be


Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} You have a poor opinion of me in that I dont respect and try to understand your case. I do. The current state of UK politics is outrageous. And your frustrations is entirely just. Im not coming in to put those feelings down with econometric BS. I admire the research youve done. Im just suggesting that maybe just maybe, you are shooting in the wrong direction to get the changes and causes you support and deserve to UK society wich is a very sick and divided puppy.
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Bones
Jul 5, 2017 9:10am
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I guess you understand what I'm saying ,I think the policy to the problem is flawed ,and that Uk reasoning knows the economic risk but the issue to us is big enough to take up right now
freedom of movement is central which is why EU are out of touch with us
But the problem is larger Swiss & German

Quoting cliffedwards
Ive taken in your points .. but feel unable to respond. Despite the fact that you and I have had a civilised and .
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Mr. Scott
Jul 5, 2017 10:27am
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Quoting Bones
My interest in fundi has increased massively ,I try to understand and think it through ,I don't know what next actually fundi but that chart I'm confident something will come {quote}
Don't worry about fundi, it is already on your chart.

Otherwise, fundi is the refuge of the scoundrels and frauds here....
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Bones
Jul 5, 2017 11:08am
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Says the man I think knows a lot about Fundi ... its good for a debate
we know whats poss Scott

Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Don't worry about fundi, it is already on your chart. Otherwise, fundi is the refuge of the scoundrels and frauds here....
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Bones
Jul 6, 2017 12:16pm
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seems like you done the numbers yourself ?
maybe a crude way to think about it but heres the top eu countries that matter to the uk off google
surprised me but Dutch have much natural resource
ask yourself this
why is Ireland there

Quoting barkie
{quote} haha great link Here's how you measure productivity. Simply take the GDP per capita of a country and divide this number by the number of hours worked per person. Result: Netherlands: £26 UK: £18 So every hour the average dutch worker creates £8 more economic value than the average UK worker. So no way you can compete with us or most other EU countries. Hope this clears things up.
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Bones
Jul 8, 2017 2:27pm — Edited
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At a glance UK hasn't the same problem ,but does have one which May was thinking about on social care .
I did not like her idea like the rest of country ,
the same as I don't like having to pay the young to go to Uni when fees actually work better

Germany is very sim to Swiss
Without looking at population in reliable pyramid detail you can see dependency ratio expectation

Also If you rely on immigration as Germany seem to favour, the social problems do equate to economic
Less educated for a start

When you consider Germany,it holds it's ground on lots of issues that have a direct financial benefit to it
to maintain a strong position
There not immediately obvious ,such as the the single currency you have to think it through
This is exactly one of those time's, mass migration makes no sense whatsoever ,just as Euro for Greece

If you want proof of future problems ,on the other end of migration , look at Poland dependency
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barkie
Jul 6, 2017 10:59am
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Quoting Devauxt
{quote} https://www.screencast.com/t/ifdwL9iKwp1r
haha great link

Here's how you measure productivity. Simply take the GDP per capita of a country and divide this number by the number of hours worked per person.

Result:
Netherlands: £26
UK: £18

So every hour the average dutch worker creates £8 more economic value than the average UK worker. So no way you can compete with us or most other EU countries. Hope this clears things up.
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digit1288
Jul 5, 2017 6:49am
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"150,000 illegal immigrants enter UK each year, says whistleblower ex-Home Office boss
The bombshell figure – 3,000 every week - means the true number of net new arrivals is 50 per cent higher than official figures, pushing the total up to 400,000"

The UK leaving the EU won't stop the 150,000 illegals entering every year.
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Bones
Jul 3, 2017 3:05am
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im glad the stance is tough ,id walk away tomorrow rather than pay another penny ,lets roll the dice...
somehow that will be more popular than Labours little red joke book
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Bones
Jul 3, 2017 3:10am
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we have to be able to deal with the rest of the world to make this work ,bye bye EU and silly economic migrant policy
There is no doorstep in a global world
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Bones
Jul 3, 2017 12:53pm
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were talking luxury item with other alternatives to the tune of 20-60 k
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Bones
Jul 4, 2017 9:02am
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Ive made a valid point who ends up paying these probable taxes in your field if I'm wrong speak up
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Bones
Jul 4, 2017 9:09am
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I know you will not do it ,thats because anyone can actually say I'm a professional ,the problem with forums ,Ill wait patiently
yes it matters who it hurts the most eventually
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Bones
Jul 4, 2017 11:07am
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heads up ,
whats it all about
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Bones
Jul 6, 2017 12:41pm
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Netherlands V UK 2016
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Bones
Jul 9, 2017 10:21am — Edited
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here it is the reason Germany leader of EU pack have such strong red line on freedom of movement
Its not actually talked about like that
as far as Ive seen
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Devauxt
Jul 3, 2017 9:10am
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Quoting Bones
focus on Germany to suffer the most imo ,but you could say just 2 countries account over a third of all selling to UK their already on a suicide path importing labour to plug the aging population {quote}
Germany, the most important EU member and the largest net contributor to the EU budget would certainly not be happy, as one in seven cars made in Germany are sold in UK and more German cars are exported to the UK than anywhere else. That's 14% of all its domestic vehicle production and 18% of its vehicle exports.

Exports from Germany to the UK are equivalent to roughly 3.5% of German GDP. The UK is Germany's third-biggest single export destination, absorbing 7.5% of German exports. Also remember that Germany accounts for 93% of the EU's trade surplus
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Magog
Jul 5, 2017 9:47am
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Quoting cliffedwards
What happens in the coming months and years in the current Brexit negotiations will have a profound effect on the Euro, and GBP (2nd & 4th most traded currencies in the world). @ Bones mate.. Ive taken in your points .. but feel unable to respond. Despite the fact that you and I have had a civilised and informed discussion in the last 48h it attracted an FF Moderator to CoC /censor YOU on 9 posts. ME on 6 posts. IMHO Weve both (as may have others) learned much new from each other, on the important fundamental issues we were discussing in our...
ROFLMFAO

Britain’s economy to outperform France, Germany and Eurozone, says bombshell report

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/824600/brexit-britain-economy-eurozone-european-union-france-germany-devolution-county-councils
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cliffedwards
Jul 5, 2017 10:33pm
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Quoting Magog
{quote} ROFLMFAO Britains economy to outperform France, Germany and Eurozone, says bombshell report http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/824...ounty-councils
Basically this report says, the UK could grow faster if it was to devolve power.
Nowhere in the report is Brexit mentioned, though numerous references are made to European Union regional support and grant programs.
I recommend that instead of reading a hack journalists spin.. you read the report?:
Here ..have a go..
http://www.localis.org.uk/wp-content...compressed.pdf

The last time I checked (i.e. yesterday), the UK is now the worst performing economy in the G20, with the worst performing currency, and has the worst record on wages falling.
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Magog
Jul 6, 2017 12:59am
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Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} Basically this report says, the UK could grow faster if it was to devolve power. Nowhere in the report is Brexit mentioned, though numerous references are made to European Union regional support and grant programs. I recommend that instead of reading a hack journalists spin.. you read the report?: Here ..have a go.. http://www.localis.org.uk/wp-content...compressed.pdf The last time I checked (i.e. yesterday), the UK is now the worst performing economy in the G20, with the worst performing...
Cliff - not everything you disagree with can be dismissed as hack journalism - did you even read the article? It was merely referencing a report by Oxford Economics which stated
A report from Oxford Economics predicts the UK will strive ahead of its Eurozone peers over the next five years.

The UKs economy is forecast to grow 1.8 per cent between 2017-2021 as Britain leaves the EU.

The key words here are forecast and leave EU - UK, I agree, is not performing too well atm but this is a direct result of our membership of EU, soon to be corrected and as the report suggests our leaving will have a positive effect on the UK economy going forward.
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Magog
Jul 6, 2017 10:44am
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Quoting barkie
{quote} Don't forget to tell us HOW the EU killed your productivity LOL Hint: inwork benefits means labor is cheap means no technology means productivity going nowhere. UK= socialist merry-go-round economy.
EU killed your productivity LOL

I didn't actually say that but it's interesting you should draw that conclusion.

But it was an incredible coincidence don't you think? and I don't believe in coincidences.
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Devauxt
Jul 6, 2017 11:23am
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Quoting barkie
{quote} haha great link Here's how you measure productivity. Simply take the GDP per capita of a country and divide this number by the number of hours worked per person. Result: Netherlands: £26 UK: £18 So every hour the average dutch worker creates £8 more economic value than the average UK worker. So no way you can compete with us or most other EU countries. Hope this clears things up.
Sorry to burst you bubble, but it is based on a points system and the population of each country is taken into account already. Dear oh dear, I didn't think that a simple chart would prove difficult for you to read. It shouldn't really have surprised me though
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Bones
Jul 3, 2017 8:37am
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focus on Germany to suffer the most imo ,but you could say just 2 countries account over a third of all selling to UK
their already on a suicide path importing labour to plug the aging population

Quoting barkie
{quote} So as a percentage of GDP the UK would get hit 4 to 5 times harder than the EU right ?
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Bones
Jul 3, 2017 8:42am
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break it down look at who we actually trade with ,I haven't done the math but I see a massive deficit how much that would hurt them alone

Quoting barkie
{quote} So as a percentage of GDP the UK would get hit 4 to 5 times harder than the EU right ? UK GDP 2.6 trillion / 230 billion in exports = 8.8 percent EU GDP 16.4 trillion / 290 billion in exports = 1.7 percent
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Bones
Jul 3, 2017 10:29am
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If you look those main trading partners are also the contributors ,worse trading will add to the eu budget loss of UK

It's the bill that now can not happen since May has already rejected that number 60 up
My feeling no way will it pass the citizens vote which surely must happen by re election

"In short Britain will insist that responsibility for the overhang of bills lies with EU institutions. The EU was funded on an annual basis but decided to live beyond its means. The Commission decided to run an unfunded pension scheme and make more commitments to investment projects than the money available in any given year. These decisions created liabilities that are the responsibility of the EU to meet, as a legal entity in its own right. They are not, in Londons view, strictly the responsibility of member-states and certainly not of a departing state.
Londons interpretation is partly backed up by credit ratings agencies, which have largely maintained their assessment of the EUs creditworthiness not because Britain will honour its past commitments, but because the remaining EU states will pay its bills and have the means to do so. DBRS even excluded Britain from its core group of contributors when rea rming the EUs AAA status after the referendum."
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Bones
Jul 3, 2017 11:41am
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Fords already number one seller in UK add 10% to german cars... seriously Barkie's not worried
True if tariffs are added isn't the overall revenue gain one sided

Quoting digit1288
Are people in the UK going to stop buying German cars, after we leave the EU? I can't honestly see people swapping their Audi, Merc or BMW for a Ford focus... I reckon we will end up buying just as many as we do now, only difference...it will cost more.
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Bones
Jul 4, 2017 10:51am
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another election ,I wonder would labour put "jobs first" with a huge bill
You have to be able to walk away

Guard during a rescue off the coastal town of Zawiyah of 147 migrants trying to reach Europe. More than 20,000 migrants reached Italy this past week.
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Bones
Jul 4, 2017 2:07pm — Edited
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guess this is a taboo subject for some reason Cliff doesn't know about ,but then he's not in the South East UK

150,000 illegal immigrants enter UK each year, says whistleblower ex-Home Office boss
The bombshell figure – 3,000 every week - means the true number of net new arrivals is 50 per cent higher than official figures, pushing the total up to 400,000

Also theres no housing shortage apparently or if there is its down to the Gov

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/381072...e-office-boss/
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Bones
Jul 4, 2017 3:41pm — Edited
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Explains a lot he's looking down from high up in the mountains the view is rosy
all I did is be factual what its all about,I know somethings up with my own eyes
yet thats a breach somehow ?
He's out of touch as is the EU ,
this economic migrant problem needs to be redirected back home ,id be happy to see it funded
I mean proper inward investment to Africa ,but I don't know the politics



Quoting verv
Hidden
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Bones
Jul 5, 2017 5:37am — Edited
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heres the main point some of Europe feels it must grow to survive a Ponzi Scheme
like you say you think our population must grow we need it with no thought to social effect
thats the main reason UK leave ,average person does not want that

its Europes policies that encourage mass migration from many areas in or out EU
some countries certainly seem happy with that, it does solve a immediate problem..
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Bones
Jul 5, 2017 6:16am — Edited
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I've studied population growth and drawing large numbers of certain age groups ,I'm not sure if the average person realises the future growth if you keep it up
It depends how high you value existing cultures


Mass migration is the major cause of our rapid population increase.
It is estimated that net migration plus births to foreign-born parents has accounted for 85% of UK population growth since 2000.
Under the official ‘high’ migration scenario the population is projected to rise by around 500,000 a year – the equivalent to a new city the size of Liverpool every year.
75% of this increase will be down to future migrants and their children.
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Bones
Jul 5, 2017 6:29am
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swiss have a situ
Quoting cliffedwards
Point of Information: 61% of Genevas population are foreign born. Switzerland has 2 million foreigners, equal to a quarter (25%) of the permanent resident population..
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Bones
Jul 5, 2017 6:57am — Edited
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yea but I hold MAY to her 10s of thousands as the rest of the country ,she seems committed as do even Labour this is at the forefront now,im not looking backwards at past failures all Gov and why like Cliff.
Also there are other ideas that need to be implemented ,I don't know ? but being a member stops that

Two new Acts of Parliament have extended deportation powers, limited the extensive grounds for appeal previously available, imposed responsibilities on landlords, banks and the DVLA to carry out checks on immigration status and those who knowingly rent properties to illegal immigrants face criminal prosecution. All of this is designed to make life more difficult for those with no right to remain. However, this needs to be backed up with the deterrent of actual removal. Too few illegal immigrants have been removed from the country, with enforced removals of immigration offenders averaging around only about 4,300 a year over the last nine years. This must be addressed by increasing enforcement efforts. Currently the government spends just 0.25% of total government expenditure on immigration control (see here). This is entirely inadequate.
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Bones
Jul 5, 2017 7:55am
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the short answer is eur gbp will fall ,but thats tech no doubt whatsoever on long term charts

Quoting cliffedwards
What happens in the coming months and years in the current Brexit negotiations will have a profound effect on the Euro, and GBP (2nd & 4th most traded currencies in the world). @ Bones mate.. Ive taken in your points .. but feel unable to respond. Despite the fact that you and I have had a civilised and informed discussion in the last 48h it attracted an FF Moderator to CoC /censor YOU on 9 posts. ME on 6 posts. Weve both (as may have others) progressed much new on the important fundamental issues we were discussing in our exchange.. But mostly...
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Bones
Jul 5, 2017 8:29am
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My interest in fundi has increased massively ,I try to understand and think it through ,I don't know what next actually fundi but that chart I'm confident something will come


Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} No.. 100% NP.. Technically. Just concerned about the fundies... and politicos.. Minefield.
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Bones
Jul 5, 2017 8:55am
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in reverse what happened next after print of wick

Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} . "probabilities of long wicks " Yes.
Quoting Bones
To think longer term chart says we work higher as inflation will be up and interest rates I think up {quote} {image}
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Bones
Jul 6, 2017 1:17pm — Edited
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Oh yea I see your adding hours in the calc ,I'm wondering no way do a the gov know how many hours I work or most people, I know ,
self employed so I'm struggling also if you start with a country say Ireland the original number is flawed without delving in deeper ?
i don't see a reliable measure of productivity

I see many factors for skew

Quoting barkie
{quote} As I said Bones, without "average hours worked" you can't calculate productivity. I'm sure you'll find out that what you peop le do in a day we do in an hour or so.
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Bones
Jul 6, 2017 1:32pm
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ha says the man with a major problem looming
he thinks economics (we need labour ) trumps wipe out
show me the chart comparing productivity by country

Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} If this issue of productivity and its importance to the economy is of interest to you as a reader/member/trader .. read this one page definition from OECD. https://www.oecd.org/std/productivit...s/40526851.pdf Britain's failure to recover productivity since the crash of 2008, has both baffled, confounded and worried UK policy makers for almost a decade. It a highly complex subject, but almost wholly related to UK Government DOMESTIC economic...
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Bones
Jul 6, 2017 1:38pm
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Have a look at the chart then tell me why its not skewed then
say if you can dig it out the ground
or have tax incentives
that kick the capita GDP off as a bad number
then tell me how on earth anyone knows how long I or every other person works ,that don't work for the government
Im waiting for the explanation


Quoting Bones
Oh yea I see your adding hours in the calc ,I'm wondering no way do a the gov know how many hours I work or most people, I know , self employed so I'm struggling also if you start with a country say Ireland the original number is flawed without delving in deeper ? i don't see a reliable measure of productivity I see many factors for skew {quote} {image}
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Bones
Jul 6, 2017 1:57pm
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Cliff you stepped in by putting down ,now I kindly ask your expert opinion
if the calculation is flawed that Barkie gives, see my concerns in post
give me the answer ill be wiser


Quoting Bones
Have a look at the chart then tell me why its not skewed then say if you can dig it out the ground or have tax incentives that kick the capita GDP off as a bad number then tell me how on earth anyone knows how long I or every other person works ,that don't work for the government Im waiting for the explanation {quote}
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Bones
Jul 6, 2017 2:15pm
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I mentioned it because I don't think you know the end result to such numbers you continue to promote as no problem
essentially you don't understand it or you don't care

Quoting cliffedwards
Point of Information: 61% of Genevas population are foreign born. Switzerland has 2 million foreigners, equal to a quarter (25%) of the permanent resident population
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Bones
Jul 6, 2017 2:24pm — Edited
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Cliff tell me Barkie s calc is it flawed without looking deeper into GDP ,answer my questions please also
Productivity must be based the government workforce ? who have had a significant pay cut

show your merit ,I'm not looking for links ,shoot from your knowledgeable hip
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Bones
Jul 6, 2017 4:06pm — Edited
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Cliff I know why you posted it ,often your argument is irrelevant
This is such an answer, but honestly I don't think you know the end result to your strong view
no problem here
water off a ducks back statistics
I haven't said your insulated at all ,only blind if you value your countries existing culture,i've backed it up with charts...
Another example would be May already failed to bring immigration down against the problem that exists in the peoples eyes -enough to make the shock vote.

Whilst the conversation has diverged from the story its mostly connected to it in higher detail.I don't think its veered that far like you say it's nothing to do with forward thinking what next.


We also still cover a lot of points you continually post elsewhere ,especially huge migration effects within our life time and UK's reasoning where your way off base.So a lot of views discussed here you touch on regular and seems your just not willing to just say if somethings right or not in your own field ?After drilling deeper

With regard to Productivity if this is the calculation as Barkie describes maybe he shouldn't take too much comfort in that leaves UK weaker somehow

Im using my own eyes first within my lifetime then actual numbers


Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} I responded on this to illustrate that the UKs levels of foreign born residents is not extraordinary by international standards.... and to your specific suggestion that Swiss residency somehow insulated me from the realities of experiencing high migrant environments. I further drew your attention to the universal misperception and overestimation in almost all countries of the numbers of foreign born residents in their society. In the UK ordinary folk actually believe there are twice as many as census and other measures confirm. Now if youll...
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Bones
Jul 6, 2017 9:51pm
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In actual fact the public sector don't produce anything ,so its measured simply by wage growth ,there surely is part of the fall
yet another aspect to skew the whole thing

"We can't tell you exactly and precisely what is happening here: we can't even tell you how important this next point is to what is happening. But we can tell you that this is absolutely one of the things that is going on. Public sector wages are falling relative to private sector ones. That is part of the cause of that fall in labour productivity.

Here we enter a rather Alice in Wonderland area of economic statistics, the measurement of public sector labour productivity. In the private sector this isn't actually easy but it is at least logical. Stripped to its essence we add up the value of what is produced, look at the number of hours of labour required to produce that and divide one into the other. If there's more production from the same number of hours then labour productivity has risen. Obvious, really.

The important part here being that that "value" is "at market prices". But we cannot use this method for estimating public sector output. Because most of what the public sector does doesn't have market prices: how can we "value" the output of a diversity adviser?

Therefore we don't even attempt to do this. The output of government is defined as what we spend in order to gain this output. Thus public sector labour productivity is equal to, exactly the same as, the wages we spend on public sector labour.


We can however tell you that this absolutely is at least a piece of the puzzle. Why is UK labour productivity falling? Simply because we measure public sector labour productivity by the amount we pay them in wages and we're deliberately squeezing those wages currently."
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Bones
Jul 7, 2017 9:44pm — Edited
Permalink
Maybe your missing the point I mentioned I already know today you guys don't look after the old ,thats the point of poverty to pensioners so high
A quick check if theres already a problem

Then I posted above a uk population profile with immigration UK 2011 .(UK census year every 10)
I assume your profile very sim and that profile has stayed the same for years

It is worth noting without doubt the culture change magnifies every year this is carry this out.


Then I posted Switzerland 2016 pyramid.
Using the actual data thats printed I can look forward 25Y making only a few assumptions as attached
It might help you with the scale of the situ to your eye in a short time
Germany very similar

Its going to be an accurate sketch , unlike productivity comparisons your really puzzled by (very few variants )

Your JOKE statistic , UK bashing numbers , that you and Barkie believe without question on something I can see instantly as un-reliable -Here we enter a rather Alice in Wonderland area of economic statistics
"(to dumb down the issue)."...RIGHT-O
"a UK worker now has to work 5 days to produce what a German worker can produce in 4. ***"....LOL

So I'm pointing out whats happening and why its happening in detail ,which is very relivant to the Major Euro countries and the crazy migration allowance we see today.

This isn't politics at all its forward looking 101 economics--big choices loom
The amount of native tax payers will fall way off todays for a fact

Going forward this 2016 news should not shock at all -defiantly not politicians with something better than my sketch
"Last year saw the highest ever number of UK births to women who were born outside the country, official figures have revealed.
Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that 27.5 per cent of all births in England and Wales were to women who had arrived here from abroad."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7208936.html

also swiss news Sept 2016
Switzerlands parliament voted today on whether the official retirement age should be allowed to rise to 67. With 106 votes for, and 90 against, the National Council approved a plan to deal with the financial challenges of providing pensions in an era with more old people who are living longer.

Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} @ Bones.. Im here to comment on currency and macroeconomic fundementals that effect them. If you or others want to discuss social justice or politics for politics sake, or party politics Im not interested. Sorry. Wrong Website.
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Calculus
Jul 7, 2017 12:36am
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The 3 pillars of politicians are shining ever brightly with Brexit, just as predicted.

1. Incompetence
2. Weakness
3, Dishonesty

On point 1. Has anything actually happened re Brexit apart from loads of talk and dithering? Does anyone have a workable plan/strategy yet a year after the vote?

Point 2. See above.

Point 3. The word 'tough'. Spin doctors probably getting the word out to placate some voters but if we go behind closed doors they'll all be scared and very weak.
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barkie
Jul 3, 2017 8:19am — Edited
Permalink
Quoting Bones
imports {image}
So as a percentage of GDP the UK would get hit 4 to 5 times harder than the EU right ?

UK GDP 2.6 trillion / 230 billion in exports = 8.8 percent
EU GDP 16.4 trillion / 290 billion in exports = 1.7 percent
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barkie
Jul 3, 2017 11:28am
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Quoting digit1288
Are people in the UK going to stop buying German cars, after we leave the EU? I can't honestly see people swapping their Audi, Merc or BMW for a Ford focus... I reckon we will end up buying just as many as we do now, only difference...it will cost more.
You nailed it Digit!
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barkie
Jul 6, 2017 10:12am
Permalink
Quoting Magog
{quote} Remind me - When exactly did we join the EU Shocking: Britain is now in the midst of its worst decade for economic productivity in as long as two centuries {image}
Don't forget to tell us HOW the EU killed your productivity LOL

Hint: inwork benefits means labor is cheap means no technology means productivity going nowhere.

UK= socialist merry-go-round economy.
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barkie
Jul 6, 2017 1:02pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
Netherlands V UK 2016 {image}
As I said Bones, without "average hours worked" you can't calculate productivity. I'm sure you'll find out that what you people do in a day we do in an hour or so.
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barkie
Jul 6, 2017 1:43pm — Edited
Permalink
Quoting Bones
ha says the man with a major problem looming
That chart actually indicates the opposite, that there is NO problem looming, all the way on the right means the least risk. LOL

Edit: Never mind, I thought that chart was for me.
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digit1288
Jul 3, 2017 10:34am
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Are people in the UK going to stop buying German cars, after we leave the EU?

I can't honestly see people swapping their Audi, Merc or BMW for a Ford focus...

I reckon we will end up buying just as many as we do now, only difference...it will cost more.
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digit1288
Jul 3, 2017 11:23am
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If we left the EU with no deal and defaulted to WTO tarrifs, wouldn't the government see an increase in tax revenue since we buy more than we sell.

I assume the import taxes on EU goods, all go to the UK government coffers? Aren't these taxes paid by the UK public because they are ones buying the goods?
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Aussi
Jul 1, 2017 5:08pm
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hes got a axe to grind but hes a pretty little snob nosed , bet he does not play forex
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Bones
Jul 3, 2017 7:55am — Edited
Permalink
imports ,damage EU side will be focused
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Bones
Jul 5, 2017 8:22am — Edited
Permalink
cliff if price goes into that wick without lower
it will be swiftly rejected news will come
be sure to quote me if I'm wrong
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Bones
Jul 6, 2017 1:51pm
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Oh yea lol ,but there is a problem looming with the ageing population massive middle band

Quoting Bones
swiss have a situ {quote} {image}
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Bones
Jul 6, 2017 1:55pm
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no the chart is right ,I'm not talking Netherlands I'm talking to Cliff
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Bones
Jul 6, 2017 4:30pm
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many people don't know why UK react to the situ or why we would risk being poorer therefore we must be fooled by that bus
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Calculus
Jul 7, 2017 12:38am
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'Just as predicted'.

In the above post it's not right to use the word 'predicted' because that's akin to predicting the sun will set today in the West.
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cliffedwards
Jul 2, 2017 2:24pm — Edited
Permalink
Mrs May is done. To quote a metaphor.. a dead man walking.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...t-theresa-may/

But more seriously the Conservative Party is about to self destruct.
The former is of little consequence.. but the latter is not in the Nations interest.
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cliffedwards
Jul 3, 2017 5:37am
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Reality Check:
There are only two viable options, One is a high-access, low-control arrangement which looks a bit like the EEA. The other is a low-access, high-control arrangement where you eventually end up looking like Ceta a more classic free trade agreement.*
Just depend on which you believe will leave the country poorer and less secure.

*Various sources
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Devauxt
Jul 3, 2017 12:16pm
Permalink
Quoting digit1288
Are people in the UK going to stop buying German cars, after we leave the EU? I can't honestly see people swapping their Audi, Merc or BMW for a Ford focus... I reckon we will end up buying just as many as we do now, only difference...it will cost more.
I suppose that really depends on how the EU wants to apply its punishments. It is true that people will still want to buy German cars and German white goods, but higher tariffs would make products less competitive thereby reducing market share
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cliffedwards
Jul 4, 2017 8:00am — Edited
Permalink
While it is interesting to shoot the breeze on price elasticity (economics 101) its is a complete waste of time in the context of the issues confronting us as Traders in understanding long term UKs economic future and whither the GBP. The UK decision to exit the EU is a POLITICAL decision. Not an economic one.
And the EUs response and the whole nature of the current negotiations are similarly defined.
We are already seeing extraordinary misjudgement our UK Government has made, on this reality as negotiations begin, through our mixture of history myopia and misjudgement.

The outcome of this faceoff from the EU side will not be determined by the price of BMWs.
Any more than Brexit was determined by pragmatic economics on ours.
Whinging about EU "Punishing" is puerile is a fundamental failure to understand whats happening here.

The UK has chosen to leave the EU. A bloc of 27 Sovereign States that operating together within a complex legal and treat defined framework of mutual cooperation across a wide spectrum of economic cultural fiscal and environmental etc etc affairs. Not the other way around. UK expections of some sort of exceptionalist response to this situation is myopic and misplaced.
The ideological political alt-right Actors who drove Brexit through hoped to weaken the EU and instead have strengthened it. (In sailing terms.. the UK has tacked into a break on the new hand.)

There are only two choices now for determining the outcome of this debacle.

1. a high-access, low-control arrangement (in terms of current UK Red Lines) which looks a bit like the EEA.
2. a low-access, high-control arrangement where we eventually end up looking like Ceta ..a more classic free trade agreement.. on a WTO model

Mrs May has chosen the latter.
Just depends as Chancellor Hammond said, on whether the British public are really happy to be poorer and less secure or not.. and choose follow her over the cliff.
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cliffedwards
Jul 4, 2017 9:16am
Permalink
Quoting Bones
Give me your expert model what happens if 10% is added to all cars
Which bit do you not understand in what Im saying???.
The primary driver of these negotiations at this point IS NOT ABOUT ECONOMICS.
On Either side... as your earlier response confirms?
Vis:
Quoting Bones
You carry on feeling this is all about money ,id rather be poorer than continue importing labour and a big section of the vote was just that.
Im not banging on about money/economics ..you are??
You are arguing with yourself.
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cliffedwards
Jul 4, 2017 9:22am
Permalink
Quoting Bones
I know you will not do it ,thats because anyone can actually say I'm a professional ,the problem with forums ,Ill wait patiently yes it matters who it hurts the most eventually
You have a poor opinion of me in that I dont respect and try to understand your case.
I do. The current state of UK politics is outrageous. And your frustrations is entirely just.
Im not coming in to put those feelings down with econometric BS.
I admire the research youve done. Im just suggesting that maybe just maybe, you are shooting in the wrong direction to get the changes and causes you support and deserve to UK society wich is a very sick and divided puppy.
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cliffedwards
Jul 4, 2017 5:05pm — Edited
Permalink
Point of Information: 61% of Genevas population are foreign born.
Switzerland has 2 million foreigners, equal to a quarter (25%) of the permanent resident population.
The figures for foreign born populations in Australia is 23%, Canada 19.3% and the USA 12.3%
A 2010 estimate for the whole of the UK shows that 4.76 million people (7.7 percent) were born outside the EU and 2.24 million (3.6 percent) were born in another EU member state.* This is now circa 13%

Uncounted Illegal Migrants: If there are in fact 150,000 additional illegal migrants entering the UK each years as Alasdair Palmer and David Wood claim they are by definition non EU Citizens, Since all EU citizens are by definition legal.
That implies that the % of migrants entering under Freedom of movement is not 49% as official figures claim but only 33%.

Perception and Reality: Ipsos MORIs global survey, building on work in the UK in 2013 for the Royal Statistical Society and King's College London, highlighted in 2014 that the UK public believed that 24% of the population of the UK are immigrants twice the real figure.

What happens in the coming months and years in the current Brexit negotiations will have a profound effect on the Euro, and GBP (2nd & 4th most traded currencies in the world).

*Wikipedia
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cliffedwards
Jul 5, 2017 7:46am
Permalink
What happens in the coming months and years in the current Brexit negotiations will have a profound effect on the Euro, and GBP (2nd & 4th most traded currencies in the world).

@ Bones mate.. Ive taken in your points .. but feel unable to respond.

Despite the fact that you and I have had a civilised and informed discussion in the last 48h
it attracted an FF Moderator to CoC /censor
YOU on 9 posts.
ME on 6 posts.

IMHO Weve both (as may have others) learned much new from each other, on the important fundamental issues we were discussing in our exchange.. Issues of critical political electoral perception which will determine how this issue plays out... and ultimately impacts on the 2nd & 4th largest traded currencies in the world.

But mostly about quality and standards of FF Moderation.
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cliffedwards
Jul 5, 2017 8:14am
Permalink
Quoting Bones
you have to understand the probabilities of long wicks to know your be burned investing on the long side what your seeing is consolidation now {image}
Or a flag?
Break above 88.5ish would open higher?
weve had 4x weekly rejections but no sign of retreat yet.

"probabilities of long wicks " Yes.
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cliffedwards
Jul 5, 2017 8:26am
Permalink
Quoting Bones
cliff if price goes into that wick without lower it will be swiftly rejected news will come be sure to quote me if I'm wrong {image}
No.. 100% NP.. Technically.
Just concerned about the fundies... and politicos..
Minefield.
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Magog
Jul 6, 2017 8:43am
Permalink
Quoting cliffedwards
{quote} Basically this report says, the UK could grow faster if it was to devolve power. Nowhere in the report is Brexit mentioned, though numerous references are made to European Union regional support and grant programs. I recommend that instead of reading a hack journalists spin.. you read the report?: Here ..have a go.. http://www.localis.org.uk/wp-content...compressed.pdf The last time I checked (i.e. yesterday), the UK is now the worst performing economy in the G20, with the worst performing...
Remind me - When exactly did we join the EU
Shocking: Britain is now in the midst of its worst decade for economic productivity in as long as two centuries

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Devauxt
Jul 6, 2017 10:29am — Edited
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Quoting barkie
{quote} Don't forget to tell us HOW the EU killed your productivity LOL Hint: inwork benefits means labor is cheap means no technology means productivity going nowhere. UK= socialist merry-go-round economy.

https://www.screencast.com/t/ifdwL9iKwp1rAttachment g
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cliffedwards
Jul 6, 2017 1:25pm
Permalink
Quoting barkie
{quote} Don't forget to tell us HOW the EU killed your productivity LOL .
If this issue of productivity and its importance to the economy is of interest to you as a reader/member/trader .. read this one page definition from OECD.
https://www.oecd.org/std/productivit...s/40526851.pdf

Britain's failure to recover productivity since the crash of 2008, has both baffled, confounded and worried UK policy makers for almost a decade. It a highly complex subject, but almost wholly related to UK Government DOMESTIC economic policy and has next to NOTHING to do with UK membership of the EU.

Indeed we can see that from the extremely healthy productivity record of leading EU economies like France and Germany in the last decade... in developing a gap with the UK, which has come now to the stage where (to dumb down the issue).. a UK worker now has to work 5 days to produce what a German worker can produce in 4. ***
The point is that this failure to maintain productivity growth, is not a function of EU membership.
But appears to being drummed up here as part of the flawed Brexit narrative that tries to blame what is a catastrophic Domestic UK Government economic failure as being consequences of membership.

*** From a Forex perspective, which for us as Traders is the important thing.. this has had significant impact on the value of the GBP.

PS I see no merit in the second assertion in your post @Barkie.. but then Ive perhaps not understood it.
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cliffedwards
Jul 6, 2017 1:50pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
ha says the man with a major problem looming he thinks economics (we need labour ) trumps wipe out show me the chart comparing productivity by country {quote} {image}
I have NO idea of what significance the charts/diagramatics you are posting have to the subject of productivity.
You seem to have lost the thread somewhere? Or are you trying to be smart?

There are innumerable charts on the web illustrating varuious measurements of national productivity.
Even if you have no economic background, why dont you do some simple research your self?
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cliffedwards
Jul 6, 2017 1:55pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
Oh yea lol ,but there is a problem looming with the ageing population massive middle band {quote}
WHAT has this to do with UKs failure to recover productivity after 08?
I dont follow?

Edit: Read through this as a primer from FullFact..
https://fullfact.org/economy/very-ol...ivity-britain/
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cliffedwards
Jul 6, 2017 2:18pm — Edited
Permalink
Quoting Bones
Cliff you stepped in by putting down ,now I kindly ask your expert opinion if the calculation is flawed that Barkie gives, see my concerns in post give me the answer ill be wiser {quote}
I responded to Barkies post #71. My post was entirely complementary to his statement..
which treated @Magogs earlier post trying to imply that the UKs total failure to grow its productivity in the last decade has anything to do with UK membership of EU, when its a failure of UK DOMESTIC economic policy.

Which has had significance for the huge devaluation suffered by GBP during the same period.
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cliffedwards
Jul 6, 2017 2:22pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
I mentioned it because I don't think you know the end result to such numbers you continue to promote as no problem essentially you don't understand it or you don't care {quote}
@ Bones.. Im here to comment on currency and macroeconomic fundementals that effect them.
If you or others want to discuss social justice or politics for politics sake, or party politics
Im not interested. Sorry. Wrong Website.
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cliffedwards
Jul 6, 2017 2:38pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
I mentioned it because I don't think you know the end result to such numbers you continue to promote as no problem essentially you don't understand it or you don't care {quote}
I responded on this to illustrate that the UKs levels of foreign born residents is not extraordinary by international standards.... and to your specific suggestion that Swiss residency somehow insulated me from the realities of experiencing high migrant environments. I further drew your attention to the universal misperception and overestimation in almost all countries of the numbers of foreign born residents in their society. In the UK ordinary folk actually believe there are twice as many as census and other measures confirm.

Now if youll excuse me, think weve exhausted productive exchange on this, so have a good evening.
And Trade well.
Cheers.
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Devauxt
Jul 4, 2017 9:45am
Permalink
Quoting Bones
its not that Cliff its more you have less opinion of everyone around
So true
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