Its funny how retail traders conduct their business around here and I'm not surprised. Lately it came to my attention one of the most pathetic threads on any retail Forex forum which is "Pivot Trading with TDI" ran by non other than Davit who is supposedly a "trader" or an artist or whatever his occupation is according to his profile. It is also amusing how Davit and his followers act as if they found the cure for cancer.
Not only this, but banning people for no reason at all. Most are traders who get banned there are traders who need help or ask newbie questions that Davit simply doesn't like and just (out of his ego and rage) bans them and ignores them, just check out his ignore list. He justifies this by claiming "you must do the hard work and read over 500 thread pages" or "you are not dedicated enough" or whatever lame excuse, well I don't know about you but the fact that someone is asking his "mentor" (which I believe he is not even qualified to teach or instruct anyone) is enough proof he wants to learn. There is nothing wrong with asking Mr. Davit, no body wants to go back 300 pages to to get a simple question that can be answered in 2mins. I guess this is how it is like to listen to someone who has no qualification and knowledge on how to teach, If you really care about your followers you can add a simple guide on your 1st pages or you do the hard work yourself by going over the 500 pages and link on the 1st page the most relevant info so people would stop asking these questions that annoy you so much from the first place. That is if you care, but who am I talking to anyway.
The second thing is not everybody is smart some require more help than others, some people need more help and have someone hold their hand. People have different intellectual level, by simply banning them shows how an egotistical person you are. Now your followers will defend you and claim that "how can he be so egotistical when he shares with us" well, I just explained and I can tell you he is sharing this just so he can be famous on a retail site because he is a nobody in real life. I have no idea who he is? or I have no right to say that? Well, he is doing this with people in general are you blind? guess you are if you are his follower, he bans people to feed his ego and claims they are not dedicated enough or whatever. No arguments here. If he has the right to ban people and call them stuff, I also have the right to say he is a nobody and an egotistical person.
Davit and his followers had the nerve to claim I must be a loser and can't trade. Well, if mere fact that you can't take a simple criticism on your system and simply had to justify by claiming I must be a loser and can't trade shows you don't know jack sh!@ about anything. If you just think you can plot a few lines and think where the price will go you will gonna fail. Period. Did you know that 86% of mutual funds manager failed to beat the S&P500 in 2014? Thats right, these idiots with their stupid charts didnt stand a chance against buying and holding despite all their pivot indicators, and hedge funds? Check this:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investing-in-a-hedge-fund-isnt-really-worth-the-bother-2014-05-23
Pretty weird for firms that supposedly use the invincible technique of pivots.
Now let's talk about probability, Well, Davit has his probability down to enter on R78 pivot because price has a high chance or reverting. Well, this right there is nonsense. Waiting for TDI to cross to confirm is nonsense too. ADR is too extreme so a chance for a reversal is high is a fallacy, not much different than gamblers fallacy, it’s the same as playing roulette and thinking, “This roulette has returned seven red in a row, it’s due for a black anytime now!” or “this roulette has returned 22 red out of 30 spins, it clearly is defective and gives out more red than black! Therefore, I should bet on red!” . This gives no probability of something happening over another. Here is a system that is quite similar:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGT9t_rydNI
Fxbook:
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/moates/oates2amillion/2098198
Here is how it works, firstly that pivot nonsense indicator repaints every week, you got a NEW pivot and S and R levels so last week's R78 can be this week's R38 and so on, so it repaints basically this goes to show you there is no probability whatsoever in this system( go read more on probability Davit before banning people your gonna need it man
). The indicator simply plots a pivot based on whatever calculation it doesn't matter and basically these R and S levels are certain pips away from the pivot line. You can do the same yourself. Just choose whatever price level you desire and simply plot lines x number of pips away from that pivot line and enter on these lines to your hearts desire and eventually one will hold the (the most far will) and price will return to your original price why? 1) looking at the system above, it basically does the same thing, enters every 50 pips with martingale and waits for a retracement. These systems currently work, yes I said it CURRENTLY works because currently the markets are range bound. If you go back to the 80s or 90s the markets were trending hard and some traders took advantage of it, the famous are Richard Dennis and The Turtles. These systems will fail in the end when markets start to change. Don't belief me? check this article:
http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2015/09/jim-simons-trend-following/
Markets change ever 5 or 10 years and sometimes less, Basing your trading on nonsense like this is nothing more than gambling. Trying to "build a position" with a cleaver equity SL will not work. Currently your equity curves shows gains that is just like the system I outline above, same exact reasons.
As for me, I am glad I don't trade based on this C R A P or anything here on ForexFactory. You don't have to believe me because your stuck in your retail world trying to get to a million dollars with technical analyses that went extinct since the 90s. It's amusing that you had the nerve to call me a loser, when you all you know of trading is pivot points and building position in fundamental direction. Thanks for the laugh haha
We use the following model:
1) Use calibration engine to obtain market parameters frrom curent price quotes (no history) and ascribe parameter values to the asset pricing model.
2) Use a neural network that takes input feeds from past and current data (including classification learner for sorting news or coming news events into categories with ratings, e.g. Upcoming Fed Interest rate decision = 8/10 on scale) and train the neural network.
3) Using a proprietary combination of Monte Carlo Analysis and projection techniques we will make a heatmap of all possible future asset price movements for a given time horizon. We take the neural networks own prediction on future movements into account here as well to trace hot paths in to the future.
4) We assess the probabilties of the asset going up/down (and the magnitude of direction), any cyclical tendencies, etc..
5) After all the analysis is done (by computer programs we write) we will decide on a best course of action (assuming one exists).
Note: I dont even look at a chart of the data, my program flags (pardon the pun) any anomalies and tries to correct it. If it doesn't I will look at a chart to see if any zeros or strange spikes or whatever appears and hopefully correct it or throw the data out.
In essence we are doing a trade based upon probabilities, these probabilities reflecting over time a change in the market and themselves changing and adapting to new situations. We project the future and make trades based off our projection. If the mathematics fails us, then it does. At least we donot promote or sell a failiing system to people claiming it works.
So, start thinking outside the box and stop following ForexFactory systems thinking it will make you rich. Just because a system has many followers doesn't mean its good or works. Just because the majority of people believes in something does not make it true. It was not too long ago that the overwhelming majority sincerely believed the world was flat, and people back then believed it with as strong a conviction.
Not only this, but banning people for no reason at all. Most are traders who get banned there are traders who need help or ask newbie questions that Davit simply doesn't like and just (out of his ego and rage) bans them and ignores them, just check out his ignore list. He justifies this by claiming "you must do the hard work and read over 500 thread pages" or "you are not dedicated enough" or whatever lame excuse, well I don't know about you but the fact that someone is asking his "mentor" (which I believe he is not even qualified to teach or instruct anyone) is enough proof he wants to learn. There is nothing wrong with asking Mr. Davit, no body wants to go back 300 pages to to get a simple question that can be answered in 2mins. I guess this is how it is like to listen to someone who has no qualification and knowledge on how to teach, If you really care about your followers you can add a simple guide on your 1st pages or you do the hard work yourself by going over the 500 pages and link on the 1st page the most relevant info so people would stop asking these questions that annoy you so much from the first place. That is if you care, but who am I talking to anyway.
The second thing is not everybody is smart some require more help than others, some people need more help and have someone hold their hand. People have different intellectual level, by simply banning them shows how an egotistical person you are. Now your followers will defend you and claim that "how can he be so egotistical when he shares with us" well, I just explained and I can tell you he is sharing this just so he can be famous on a retail site because he is a nobody in real life. I have no idea who he is? or I have no right to say that? Well, he is doing this with people in general are you blind? guess you are if you are his follower, he bans people to feed his ego and claims they are not dedicated enough or whatever. No arguments here. If he has the right to ban people and call them stuff, I also have the right to say he is a nobody and an egotistical person.
Davit and his followers had the nerve to claim I must be a loser and can't trade. Well, if mere fact that you can't take a simple criticism on your system and simply had to justify by claiming I must be a loser and can't trade shows you don't know jack sh!@ about anything. If you just think you can plot a few lines and think where the price will go you will gonna fail. Period. Did you know that 86% of mutual funds manager failed to beat the S&P500 in 2014? Thats right, these idiots with their stupid charts didnt stand a chance against buying and holding despite all their pivot indicators, and hedge funds? Check this:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investing-in-a-hedge-fund-isnt-really-worth-the-bother-2014-05-23
Pretty weird for firms that supposedly use the invincible technique of pivots.
Now let's talk about probability, Well, Davit has his probability down to enter on R78 pivot because price has a high chance or reverting. Well, this right there is nonsense. Waiting for TDI to cross to confirm is nonsense too. ADR is too extreme so a chance for a reversal is high is a fallacy, not much different than gamblers fallacy, it’s the same as playing roulette and thinking, “This roulette has returned seven red in a row, it’s due for a black anytime now!” or “this roulette has returned 22 red out of 30 spins, it clearly is defective and gives out more red than black! Therefore, I should bet on red!” . This gives no probability of something happening over another. Here is a system that is quite similar:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGT9t_rydNI
Fxbook:
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/moates/oates2amillion/2098198
Here is how it works, firstly that pivot nonsense indicator repaints every week, you got a NEW pivot and S and R levels so last week's R78 can be this week's R38 and so on, so it repaints basically this goes to show you there is no probability whatsoever in this system( go read more on probability Davit before banning people your gonna need it man
). The indicator simply plots a pivot based on whatever calculation it doesn't matter and basically these R and S levels are certain pips away from the pivot line. You can do the same yourself. Just choose whatever price level you desire and simply plot lines x number of pips away from that pivot line and enter on these lines to your hearts desire and eventually one will hold the (the most far will) and price will return to your original price why? 1) looking at the system above, it basically does the same thing, enters every 50 pips with martingale and waits for a retracement. These systems currently work, yes I said it CURRENTLY works because currently the markets are range bound. If you go back to the 80s or 90s the markets were trending hard and some traders took advantage of it, the famous are Richard Dennis and The Turtles. These systems will fail in the end when markets start to change. Don't belief me? check this article:http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2015/09/jim-simons-trend-following/
Markets change ever 5 or 10 years and sometimes less, Basing your trading on nonsense like this is nothing more than gambling. Trying to "build a position" with a cleaver equity SL will not work. Currently your equity curves shows gains that is just like the system I outline above, same exact reasons.
As for me, I am glad I don't trade based on this C R A P or anything here on ForexFactory. You don't have to believe me because your stuck in your retail world trying to get to a million dollars with technical analyses that went extinct since the 90s. It's amusing that you had the nerve to call me a loser, when you all you know of trading is pivot points and building position in fundamental direction. Thanks for the laugh haha
We use the following model:1) Use calibration engine to obtain market parameters frrom curent price quotes (no history) and ascribe parameter values to the asset pricing model.
2) Use a neural network that takes input feeds from past and current data (including classification learner for sorting news or coming news events into categories with ratings, e.g. Upcoming Fed Interest rate decision = 8/10 on scale) and train the neural network.
3) Using a proprietary combination of Monte Carlo Analysis and projection techniques we will make a heatmap of all possible future asset price movements for a given time horizon. We take the neural networks own prediction on future movements into account here as well to trace hot paths in to the future.
4) We assess the probabilties of the asset going up/down (and the magnitude of direction), any cyclical tendencies, etc..
5) After all the analysis is done (by computer programs we write) we will decide on a best course of action (assuming one exists).
Note: I dont even look at a chart of the data, my program flags (pardon the pun) any anomalies and tries to correct it. If it doesn't I will look at a chart to see if any zeros or strange spikes or whatever appears and hopefully correct it or throw the data out.
In essence we are doing a trade based upon probabilities, these probabilities reflecting over time a change in the market and themselves changing and adapting to new situations. We project the future and make trades based off our projection. If the mathematics fails us, then it does. At least we donot promote or sell a failiing system to people claiming it works.
So, start thinking outside the box and stop following ForexFactory systems thinking it will make you rich. Just because a system has many followers doesn't mean its good or works. Just because the majority of people believes in something does not make it true. It was not too long ago that the overwhelming majority sincerely believed the world was flat, and people back then believed it with as strong a conviction.
The name of the game is finding weaknesses in supply or demand.
