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The Trader's Academy - by Traders for Traders

  • #1,301
  • Jun 30, 2017 4:17am Jun 30, 2017 4:17am
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  • #1,302
  • Jun 30, 2017 7:38am Jun 30, 2017 7:38am
Quoting tomase
This is a really outstanding thread, so thank you cat and others for all your trading wisdom. As far as trying to be "clever" and catch bottoms and tops, trade against momentum etc. I've been guilty, guilty and guilty again. It is such an unbelievably stupid thing to do in trading and I've sat back afterwards and cursed myself with "what the f.ck were you thinking you total idiot!" As cat has posted earlier in the thread, when it comes to trading, for some reason this impulse/phenomenon whatever you want to call it, seems to be hardwired into our...
Thanks tomase.

In trading, as with any endeavour we choose to pursue and excel at, there are many ways to skin a cat, and whatever works for you is right, which is why I shoot people down who claim that this or that doesn't work just because it doesn't work for them ( see the Dragon riders GJ thread this morning and you'll see what I mean)

If whatever system you use, no matter how simple or complex it is, works for you, then you are a winner and fuck anyone else who claims otherwise. If your system doesn't work, then keep searching for one that does, but make sure it is your own, not borrowed from someone else.
  • #1,303
  • Jun 30, 2017 8:34am Jun 30, 2017 8:34am
You're absolutely right (simple always works for me!) - and I can take trades using the 5min and 1min using the same ma's and macd as I use on the 15min. Though you have to pay attention, which I wasn't doing just now and missed this clearly signposted 50 pip trade. Oh well, there'll be another one along soon. I've zoomed out on the 1min to show the divergence more clearly.
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  • #1,304
  • Jun 30, 2017 11:48am Jun 30, 2017 11:48am
Just another tuppence worth - on the daily Dax I can now see 5 complete waves down (more clearly visible on the 4hr), since the June 20 high at 12953. The last 5 sub waves of the larger degree 5th wave (yesterdays fall) are clear on the 15min chart, there is divergence on my 1hr macd and the low at 12310 has hit a plank of support on the daily in that area from the end of March/beginning of April. So there should be a substantial ABC retracement from here - time will tell.
I know a lot of people think Elliot waves are voodoo but they are so ingrained in my psyche now that they are the first pattern I look for on any chart from the monthly down to the 1min. It's not always straightforward to identify them - but those 5 waves down look pretty convincing to me. (Ready to eat my hat now)
  • #1,305
  • Jun 30, 2017 12:16pm Jun 30, 2017 12:16pm
Quoting tomase
Just another tuppence worth - on the daily Dax I can now see 5 complete waves down (more clearly visible on the 4hr), since the June 20 high at 12953. The last 5 sub waves of the larger degree 5th wave (yesterdays fall) are clear on the 15min chart, there is divergence on my 1hr macd and the low at 12310 has hit a plank of support on the daily in that area from the end of March/beginning of April. So there should be a substantial ABC retracement from here - time will tell. I know a lot of people think Elliot waves are voodoo but they are so ingrained...
Be careful with predictions, especially when we're seeing the biggest Dax selling so far this year, with, if the Daily chart is anything to go by, more to come next week, though I'm not saying anything because there is nothing to go on for me to make any kind of prediction apart from saying that as things stand right now, the Dax is down, and down pretty hard. You of course are more than welcome to refer to Elliot Waves, which I have never used myself, and you could well be right. Back on June 19th on this thread I called a top on the Dax within 20 pips, but there were clear signs of exhaustion, signs that are not present at the moment on this down leg.

I also just wanted to refer to moving averages briefly, seeing as someone on another thread today claimed categorically that they are useless as levels of S&R. They may well be for him, but for me they are an absolutely crucial tool, if used correctly, for offering these levels. I could show you literally thousands of examples where this is so, and several on any one day, but perhaps one chart is all one needs to demonstrate the power of moving averages as levels of S&R, and that is the now famous Quarterly Dow 100sma, which stopped the 2007/8/9 financial crash dead in its tracks on March 9th 2009, a day I remember well.
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  • #1,306
  • Jun 30, 2017 12:45pm Jun 30, 2017 12:45pm
Point taken cat - I'ts just my tuppence about the pattern I see on the charts - and I too am loathe to make any predictions. As I say, I'm ready to chew that felt trilby! I did put my money where my mouth is however and got a small buy entry at 12313 with a very tight stop loss - currently up 60 pips. But time will tell.
  • #1,307
  • Jun 30, 2017 1:25pm Jun 30, 2017 1:25pm
Good weekend CAT.. and all who come here...

I hope you have an extra special one cat.. your comments on dax certainly were helpful to me and others i am sure.. Will post something on the weekend for all traders to improve their synchronicity in the markets... to share something back in here.

FUN filled..
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #1,308
  • Jul 1, 2017 4:36am Jul 1, 2017 4:36am
Quoting tomase
Point taken cat - I'ts just my tuppence about the pattern I see on the charts - and I too am loathe to make any predictions. As I say, I'm ready to chew that felt trilby! I did put my money where my mouth is however and got a small buy entry at 12313 with a very tight stop loss - currently up 60 pips. But time will tell.
Good luck with it, hope it goes for you. I think whichever way it goes, we shall have some very good trading on the Dax next week. Personally I'm glad it's broken that slow grind upwards, and hopefully we'll see some really big daily moves now.
  • #1,309
  • Jul 1, 2017 4:37am Jul 1, 2017 4:37am
Quoting ensale
Good weekend CAT.. and all who come here... I hope you have an extra special one cat.. your comments on dax certainly were helpful to me and others i am sure.. Will post something on the weekend for all traders to improve their synchronicity in the markets... to share something back in here. FUN filled..
A big thanks ensale! Hope you have a really good weekend too.
  • #1,310
  • Jul 4, 2017 7:21am Jul 4, 2017 7:21am
Quoting cat
{quote} Good luck with it, hope it goes for you. I think whichever way it goes, we shall have some very good trading on the Dax next week. Personally I'm glad it's broken that slow grind upwards, and hopefully we'll see some really big daily moves now.
Thanks. I closed that trade with 65 pips before the Friday close. If it had been midweek I would have let it develop, but I don't like leaving trades open over the weekend. God knows what could happen to spook the market causing it to gap on the Sunday/Monday open and blast through any nearby stop loss. Couldn't follow price action yesterday because of my day job, so am hoping for a decent pullback (don't think it's there yet) today or tomorrow to get a second bite at the cherry. (Presuming price action follows my ABC retracement idea)
  • #1,311
  • Jul 4, 2017 1:03pm Jul 4, 2017 1:03pm
Quoting tomase
{quote} Thanks. I closed that trade with 65 pips before the Friday close. If it had been midweek I would have let it develop, but I don't like leaving trades open over the weekend. God knows what could happen to spook the market causing it to gap on the Sunday/Monday open and blast through any nearby stop loss. Couldn't follow price action yesterday because of my day job, so am hoping for a decent pullback (don't think it's there yet) today or tomorrow to get a second bite at the cherry. (Presuming price action follows my ABC retracement idea)
The last time I left a trade over the weekend, I dreamt WW3 broke out and my account was cleaned out!
  • #1,312
  • Jul 4, 2017 2:05pm Jul 4, 2017 2:05pm
That was a lucky escape then.....if it was only your account that was cleaned out by WW3! Mind you, that's what it must have felt like for those poor sods on the wrong side of a EUR/CHF trade a couple of years ago when the Swiss Central Bank suddenly pulled the plug on their ceiling/floor for that pair.
  • #1,313
  • Jul 5, 2017 5:20am Jul 5, 2017 5:20am
I should imagine that 90 pip turnaround between 8.05 and 9.25 this morning on the Dax harvested a load of pips trading on the sub 1min timeframes - I hope so. Not for me though - I set a pending buy order at 12408 before the London open (that fitted with my analysis of the zig zag corrective pattern that price action was showing), saw it hit and go up 50 pips in short order, thought "oh good, we're off to the races for a couple of hours here", moved the stop loss to break even and closed down the charts. Came back around 90 mins later just as I was being stopped out after being up 90 pips. Bugger....bloody Dax, it knows where I live and it's after me!
  • #1,314
  • Jul 5, 2017 5:58am Jul 5, 2017 5:58am
Quoting tomase
I should imagine that 90 pip turnaround between 8.05 and 9.25 this morning on the Dax harvested a load of pips trading on the sub 1min timeframes - I hope so. Not for me though - I set a pending buy order at 12408 before the London open (that fitted with my analysis of the zig zag corrective pattern that price action was showing), saw it hit and go up 50 pips in short order, thought "oh good, we're off to the races for a couple of hours here", moved the stop loss to break even and closed down the charts. Came back around 90 mins later just as I...
Such moves are definitely easier to catch on the sub 1m tfs yes, as I had a buy signal on the 20sec tf between 08.22 and 08.28 London time which was clear, and then the subsequent drop was possible taken on just the 1m tf if entered on the break and close of the 20sma but it was risky as a 25 pip SL wasrequired to get well clear of the Bollinger band, but on the 20 sec tf there was very good divergence with MACD which I sold off as soon as the first candle closed beneath the 20sma on that time frame which only required a 13 pip SL to be clear. Also , with the sell, it was trading away from the H1 200ema which was only just above, and so this in my opinion is the main reason why it dropped hard without once pulling back, down to S1, which has been the support level so far today. This type of pa, playing ping pong between S&R, suits the small time frames very well, but not so great on anything above 2 or 3 mins unless you use a much bigger stop loss, and then of course, for the range, the risk would be too big.

Have a good day at the races!
  • #1,315
  • Jul 5, 2017 6:23am Jul 5, 2017 6:23am
Good stuff. I think I'll have a look at ovo.cz (enables any timeframe from mt4) and work out a plan for trading using sub 1min.
  • #1,316
  • Jul 5, 2017 6:43am Jul 5, 2017 6:43am
Quoting tomase
Good stuff. I think I'll have a look at ovo.cz (enables any timeframe from mt4) and work out a plan for trading using sub 1min.
Otherwise, as you're in the UK, use prorealtime charts, though obviously if you've only ever used MT4, then the switch might mess things up for you. Personally I've only ever used prorealtime from day 1.
  • #1,317
  • Jul 5, 2017 7:19am Jul 5, 2017 7:19am
Yes I remember you saying way back that you used prorealtime. I'm using the spreadbetting platform on GKFX and have found them to be pretty good mostly - except when their price feed from metaquotes freezes (which used to happen quite a lot on the Dax, but not on other instruments for some reason). Using prorealtime is tempting and I like the flexibility you have with them, but it might be a bit cumbersome using their charts and then placing actual trades on GKFX to keep the tax free status.
I'll give Ovo a trial first and see how it goes.
  • #1,318
  • Jul 5, 2017 7:31am Jul 5, 2017 7:31am
Hi, I use Prorealtime charts and my understanding is that their spread betting platform is Tax Free for UK residents.
  • #1,319
  • Jul 5, 2017 7:46am Jul 5, 2017 7:46am
Quoting raaammy
Hi, I use Prorealtime charts and my understanding is that their spread betting platform is Tax Free for UK residents.
Correct.
  • #1,320
  • Edited 8:23am Jul 5, 2017 8:02am | Edited 8:23am
Thanks, I didn't realise that. I just did some checking and I would be using prorealtime charts and trading using IG's spreadbetting platform. Their minimum position size is £1 after the first 2 weeks whereas at the moment I'm still building a small £400 account and still trading @50p a pip. So something to look into in the future.
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