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Let's Trade Options

  • #15,181
  • Jun 29, 2017 12:35pm Jun 29, 2017 12:35pm
They are trying to pull crude out of the basement, I won't be surprised to see fiber back to $1.30+ this year. Reminds me to shop some bullish GLD lotto tix.

If SPY could break $240 by the close I could make 15c net on my Jun30 put fly woohoo...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,182
  • Jun 29, 2017 1:35pm Jun 29, 2017 1:35pm
Quoting The Fool
They are trying to pull crude out of the basement, I won't be surprised to see fiber back to $1.30+ this year. Reminds me to shop some bullish GLD lotto tix. If SPY could break $240 by the close I could make 15c net on my Jun30 put fly woohoo...

I'm still short on my overall Fiber position. I have spot positions from back in 2010 at 1.49 before Trichet started their WE. I'm holding out for it to break Parity with the greenback before building a multiyear long position.
But ya, we could definitely see 1.3 again. I'm banking on a hard ceiling at 1.21 before going down to pre multi decade lows
  • #15,183
  • Jun 29, 2017 1:54pm Jun 29, 2017 1:54pm
Quoting The Fool
If SPY could break $240 by the close I could make 15c net on my Jun30 put fly woohoo...
Well I got this filled at least....if Ida waited til tomorrow it woulda prolly been a total loss....now watch the spoos dump to close the quarter and I miss a 3+ bagger...these flys are all about the final days but I hate when the last days find you on the bubble. Oh well, a win is a win...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,184
  • Jun 29, 2017 2:01pm Jun 29, 2017 2:01pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} I'm still short on my overall Fiber position. I have spot positions from back in 2010 at 1.49 before Trichet started their WE. I'm holding out for it to break Parity with the greenback
dayum...that's a long time to hold...I really don't know what to say about that. I am all about ABC bro I need to buy cat food. Anyway, I have to bet the Trump team will gut the USD and the House of Saud and Putin will party like it's 2008.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,185
  • Jun 29, 2017 2:28pm Jun 29, 2017 2:28pm
lookin like another v-bottom btfd for equities....if I had a dollar for every day US stocks sold off solidly thru the close in the last two years I probly wouldn't have enough to buy a Happy Meal...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,186
  • Jun 30, 2017 1:29pm Jun 30, 2017 1:29pm
summer dump
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,187
  • Jun 30, 2017 2:05pm Jun 30, 2017 2:05pm
Filled wide put fly above as shown but also bought Jul19 SPY $250 calls for 3c, latter case looking for a breakout on a positive turn for Trumpcare. Equity bull market can make further gains, maybe quite large ones quickly, if it looks like Congress will start to deliver the juicier bits of the Trump agenda...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,188
  • Jun 30, 2017 2:21pm Jun 30, 2017 2:21pm
also filled a VXX Aug/Sep $20 call calendar for 15c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,189
  • Jun 30, 2017 5:58pm Jun 30, 2017 5:58pm
Not paying much attention to indie names, I miss alot - per the article I checked out ORLY and AZO, damn they have been whacked in the 1st half...

https://www.thestreet.com/story/1420...3A+Top+Analyst
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,190
  • Jun 30, 2017 7:11pm Jun 30, 2017 7:11pm
Quoting The Fool
Equity bull market can make further gains, maybe quite large ones quickly, if it looks like Congress will start to deliver the juicier bits of the Trump agenda...
I have to think Congress will hash out some shitty TrumpCare legislation eventually, but they might not. If they keep failing and yet at the same time CB's keep on the (fake?) hawk noise, we could see a summer dump. Shock possibilities like new levels of war in the ME or action on NK are lurking also. So I will keep throwing change at long vol spreads...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,191
  • Jul 1, 2017 11:48am Jul 1, 2017 11:48am
Quoting The Fool
and yet at the same time CB's keep on the (fake?) hawk noise...
“Since 1915, of the 18 recessions, all of them, bar one, were preceded by monetary tightening… the Fed is on very thin ice.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-f...-growth-2017-6
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,192
  • Jul 1, 2017 11:56am Jul 1, 2017 11:56am
The Fed is on thin ice and is painted into a corner but it's the radical and dangerously incompetent Trump admin that will start the next recession. If they come out and announce steel import tariffs soon, that'll be a good place to watch for the slide to start.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,193
  • Jul 5, 2017 10:37pm Jul 5, 2017 10:37pm
SOONER OR LATER
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,194
  • Jul 5, 2017 11:12pm Jul 5, 2017 11:12pm
shit happens
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,195
  • Jul 6, 2017 2:50am Jul 6, 2017 2:50am
when I get the long vol jones, I am just filling whatever I can fill if it is dirt cheap.......virtually impossible to lose money on a wide UVXY or VXX call calendar if the vix spikes...big if...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,196
  • Jul 6, 2017 10:43pm Jul 6, 2017 10:43pm
Index options are still cheap and there are lots of cheap spreads to do to catch a downtrending market this summer.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,197
  • Jul 8, 2017 12:21am Jul 8, 2017 12:21am
a stalemate over NK .. another reason for a long dull Summer

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/3-option...erts-1.3492778
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,198
  • Jul 11, 2017 3:23am Jul 11, 2017 3:23am
AAPL trading at $145 and has ER 8/1, I am looking at a double calendar or double diagonal. iv's already up a bit so I may not try to bracket the week of the ER, but set the DC or DD in the 1 & 2 weeks prior to the ER week. Thinking of going $10 wide either side, will show some trade p/l's here.

The 7/21-7?28 DC has a 21c debit, the 7/28-8/4 DC has a $1.17 debit - big disparity is due to elevated iv's for options in the ER week of 8/4 expiry.

I might take the earlier trade and hope for some kind of iv rise and a movement toward one of my strikes. I have modeled both p/l's with just a 5% net iv gain...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,199
  • Jul 11, 2017 3:32am Jul 11, 2017 3:32am
I couldn't find any good diagonal setups that bracket the 8/4 expiry. I will look at some other possibilities, sometimes the iv's jumping around can mean you can get in flys for cheap. Will look at other tech names, using the strength of their recent moves for an indication of what they might be able to pop on ER day.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,200
  • Jul 11, 2017 3:55am Jul 11, 2017 3:55am
MSFT comes on next week, 7/20. I could try the DC below for about 20c-25c. The one wide p/l has a +5% iv gain and the worse one has -5%. We may have seen the Jul21 options do all the iv gain they're going to do, and I doubt I could get net +5%
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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