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Consumer Price Index - Can you predict the direction?

  • #41
  • Sep 15, 2006 6:19am Sep 15, 2006 6:19am
Can anyone verify which chart is correct?

I swear IBFX chart is erroneous.. Candle for 8:31 and 8:32 time are bearish over at IBFX but over at FXCM, its bullish!

IBFX chart has no Grid; FXCM chart has grid (2nd attachment)
Attached Images
  • #42
  • Edited 6:51am Sep 15, 2006 6:22am | Edited 6:51am
Quoting ngdaniel
Oh man, that was an awesome trade. 31 pips.

Who didn't follow the news?

Now this is a great friday morning.

Futures reacted great too.

Capital Utilization comes out at 9:15 AM EDT but I don't see any news on it so I can't trade it. Looks like it will come in at 82.5%.
It was a nice win indeed but [not] without fret. We saw the reversal. And especially for people who were using NF (that crashed) it wa doubly fearful as the reversal could take out the SHORT straddle.

However things went OK for me.. I cant say the same with my IBFX trade though... Nonetheless, still ended with profit
  • #43
  • Sep 15, 2006 6:25am Sep 15, 2006 6:25am
+12 this a.m. Happy weekend all...
  • #44
  • Sep 15, 2006 6:25am Sep 15, 2006 6:25am
BurgerKing,

If Im matching up the time right the first one is correct.
  • #45
  • Sep 15, 2006 6:33am Sep 15, 2006 6:33am
Quoting Money Talks
BurgerKing,

If Im matching up the time right the first one is correct.
Check the 8:31 and 8:32 candles.

IBFX is bearish. These CAN affect your confidence and the trade. Seeing that its bearish, some will CLOSE their positions for a loss when in fact (look at FXCM's chart) candle at 8:31 and 8:32 are bullish - which gives HOPE to the trader that its a winner.
  • #46
  • Sep 15, 2006 6:41am Sep 15, 2006 6:41am
Quoting BurgerKing
It was a nice win indeed but without fret. We saw the reversal. And especially for people who were using NF (that crashed) it wa doubly fearful as the reversal could take out the SHORT straddle.

However things went OK for me.. I cant say the same with my IBFX trade though... Nonetheless, still ended with profit
Sorry. As you know, I don't straddle trade. Can't seem to get used to putting two different order in to cover both sides. Way too confusing and can easily trigger both sides to have an overall loss.
  • #47
  • Sep 15, 2006 6:52am Sep 15, 2006 6:52am
It is Friday and Bush is scheduled to speak. You all know what this means.

If you don't, it means that the USD is going to drop again. It seems that every time Bush speaks, the USD drops.

Fine. Time to make some more money before the weekend starts.

I'll do it but I don't have to like it since it is so close to the end of the trading day.
  • #48
  • Sep 15, 2006 6:55am Sep 15, 2006 6:55am
ngdanniels,

I agree. But predicting the news is till a voodoo art to most novice.
Though I was confident it was going to be 0.2%, i am still not 100% confident as to which side it will kick. Though I was entered LONG, i still had "fear" in me. It was after all, my 1st trade-the-news-before-the-news (though accidentally)....

But thanks ngdanniels, it indeed worked!
  • #49
  • Sep 15, 2006 7:02am Sep 15, 2006 7:02am
Quoting BurgerKing
ngdaniels,

I agree. But predicting the news is till a voodoo art to most novice.
Though I was confident it was going to be 0.2%, i am still not 100% confident as to which side it will kick. Though I was entered LONG, i still had "fear" in me. It was after all, my 1st trade-the-news-before-the-news (though accidentally)....

But thanks ngdaniels, it indeed worked!
For next time:
If you have to wait for the release of the next Core CPI to come out and you want to analyze the data, 0.2% is your trigger between the Actual minus the Expected data. Anything under 0.2% is a buy. anything over 0.2% is a sell.

Today's data was actual = 0.2% and expected = 0.2%. The result was 0.0% which is a buy.

It is just easier for me to follow what the news says. I get in before volatility so I don't have the slippage and stop hunt problems that so many people complain about.
  • #50
  • Sep 15, 2006 7:07am Sep 15, 2006 7:07am
Quote
It is just easier for me to follow what the news says. I get in before volatility so I don't have the slippage and stop hunt problems that so many people complain about.

Do you use some sort of News wires like bloomberg?
  • #51
  • Sep 15, 2006 7:11am Sep 15, 2006 7:11am
Quoting BurgerKing
Do you use some sort of News wires like bloomberg?
You already know I do. Read my first post on Predicting The Direction Of Economic Releases.
  • #52
  • Sep 15, 2006 7:14am Sep 15, 2006 7:14am
Quoting BurgerKing
Thats why i loose money doing TA. I totally SUCK at it.

I still dont have the GRASP of TA. which of the major 4 crosses are you referring to?
Hey BK,

EUR/USD, USD/CHF GBP/USD, USD/JPY
those are the big 4 dollar crosses.

Suck is negative bk, lets use inexperienced. You may not know tech yet but you are the research KING. You share yours and i'll share mine

Just keep an eye in my chart thread as long as i keep it going. I would like to se some more interst there to do so.

Good luck and get rid of that broker
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #53
  • Sep 15, 2006 7:54am Sep 15, 2006 7:54am
Quoting ngdaniel
It is Friday and Bush is scheduled to speak. You all know what this means.

If you don't, it means that the USD is going to drop again. It seems that every time Bush speaks, the USD drops.

Fine. Time to make some more money before the weekend starts.

I'll do it but I don't have to like it since it is so close to the end of the trading day.
When does he start to talk?
  • #54
  • Sep 15, 2006 7:56am Sep 15, 2006 7:56am
11:15 am eastern time. In 15 minutes approx. I think Fox are doing a live feed.
  • #55
  • Sep 15, 2006 8:04am Sep 15, 2006 8:04am
Quoting ngdaniel
It is Friday and Bush is scheduled to speak. You all know what this means.

If you don't, it means that the USD is going to drop again. It seems that every time Bush speaks, the USD drops.

Fine. Time to make some more money before the weekend starts.

I'll do it but I don't have to like it since it is so close to the end of the trading day.
That would correspond nicely with end of day and end of week profit takers.
lets see if it works
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #56
  • Sep 15, 2006 8:56am Sep 15, 2006 8:56am
Quoting FXopportunist
That would correspond nicely with end of day and end of week profit takers.
lets see if it works
Bush opens his mouth about terrorism and the USD/CAD drops 15 pips. The USD/CHF continues to drop.
  • #57
  • Sep 15, 2006 9:05am Sep 15, 2006 9:05am
I turned off Trade the News, as an experiment, for the CPI announcement. Played it like a video game with 1 mini lot. Made about 20 pips using forex factory to check the number which came in as expected (the CPI excluding #-which i think is the big number). EURUSD long, TP.... then short, TP and repeated the cycle once. Then quit trading..... I am beginning to question my values.


I think I need to take a look at some TA (technical analysis, not tits n' ass .. what dirty minds you have). I am open to suggestions for training. Any input?
  • #58
  • Sep 15, 2006 11:23am Sep 15, 2006 11:23am
Quote
11:15 am eastern time. In 15 minutes approx. I think Fox are doing a live feed.

It came in earlier. 10:58? Too bad I did not catch the broadcast.

Quote
Bush opens his mouth about terrorism and the USD/CAD drops 15 pips. The USD/CHF continues to drop.

Is this a regular thing? I mean does Bush always talk every week or what? Anyone have list of schdules when he'd talk next time?

You sure have lots of juicy TIPS up your sleaves for us to learn! You got to be the king on news trading! Thanks for the tips and education! Keep it up!
  • #59
  • Sep 15, 2006 11:56am Sep 15, 2006 11:56am
Bush normally talks when there is decent in the media, public, his own administration and world that concerns his views, ideals and policies. This tlak wasnt schedualed, but rather he had to comment on how the US dealt with his stance when it came to detainees with their torture/treatment of 'terrorist' suspects. Which his policies goes against the Geneva codes of human abuse. To make a long story short and how this affects forex is that i believe that this talk didnt have much effect the markets. The Euro wasnt changed much, plus the speech was 15 min, which he only spewed on how America is safe because of his policies and the ways he handled the war on 'terror' and 'islamic extremest'. He always talk about this, so these speeches doesnt mean much, espcially to the market. If he talked about related things, such as how weak the economy (US) is, then that might have had an affect, but this speach didnt have much affect.
  • #60
  • Sep 15, 2006 3:11pm Sep 15, 2006 3:11pm
Quoting hunter101
Bush normally talks when there is decent in the media, public, his own administration and world that concerns his views, ideals and policies. This tlak wasnt schedualed, but rather he had to comment on how the US dealt with his stance when it came to detainees with their torture/treatment of 'terrorist' suspects. Which his policies goes against the Geneva codes of human abuse. To make a long story short and how this affects forex is that i believe that this talk didnt have much effect the markets. The Euro wasnt changed much, plus the speech was 15 min, which he only spewed on how America is safe because of his policies and the ways he handled the war on 'terror' and 'islamic extremest'. He always talk about this, so these speeches doesnt mean much, espcially to the market. If he talked about related things, such as how weak the economy (US) is, then that might have had an affect, but this speach didnt have much affect.
It doesn't matter what Bush has to say. Bush talks, people listen, moves the market, and we make money.

Bush - "Bad for the economy, great for investors". Great slogan for rehiring him if a 3rd term were possible. Vote Republican
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