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  • #15,161
  • Jun 21, 2017 6:05pm Jun 21, 2017 6:05pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} ya man, if it follows oil it will tank. I'm waiting on a stack of cash for an oil short squeeze to rip my face off. I'll close all 30 contracts at 38 if we can capitulate down there
If it was me and I had that big of a string I would be peeling some off in the low $40's. We is prolly just a few days (weeks, months?) away from the next big war there in Persian Gulf.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,162
  • Jun 22, 2017 11:42am Jun 22, 2017 11:42am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} If it was me and I had that big of a string I would be peeling some off in the low $40's. We is prolly just a few days (weeks, months?) away from the next big war there in Persian Gulf.
ya we are buncing off the 42...I can see a nice squeeze..... But I'm all in till 38 brother. No backing out. All or nothing
  • #15,163
  • Jun 22, 2017 12:14pm Jun 22, 2017 12:14pm
Quoting Wulfgar
But I'm all in till 38 brother. No backing out. All or nothing
OK, good luck, bigballz. I am just plinking, sold a SPY call vert Aug18 $247/$249 for 75c.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,164
  • Edited 8:46pm Jun 23, 2017 2:50pm | Edited 8:46pm
Quoting The Fool
SPY opened the week $242.9x, looking to close $242.50+? another dead week...
another week, another snooze - spoos opened Monday 2,444.55, looks like it will close around 2,437. Made a new ath at 2,453.03 on Monday. Shit volume today @ 1,500MM against recent avg vol @ 3,500MM....expect more of the same unless we see the usual tweets n twicks...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,165
  • Jun 24, 2017 3:20pm Jun 24, 2017 3:20pm
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/g...100300590.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,166
  • Jun 25, 2017 1:06pm Jun 25, 2017 1:06pm
https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmo.../#284a83cc78da

".....Washington may do little if anything to stop a direct war between the two old adversaries. And Russia may go along with this scenario, as higher oil prices will benefit its own oil producers.

Paradoxically, a direct war will benefit the Saudi Kingdom, too. Higher oil prices will pave the way for its Aramco IPO; and give a very much needed break to its over-exploited oil wells.

Still, an outright war carries high risks for both Saudi Arabia's and Iran's regimes, especially if it involves many casualties. That makes the scenario possible but not probable, at this time. ...."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,167
  • Jun 26, 2017 10:20am Jun 26, 2017 10:20am
Fool, looking like your bears are sharpening their claws. I took a punt on some ES futures short from 2445. Just a swing down to 2400. but only risking 5 pts to 2450.

Also bought DIA sept 215 Puts for 2.00. Figure 209 is in the cards.

Not sure exactly whats going to drive the markets down, but the charts sure as hell are insinuating at least a short term break in the trump train party.
  • #15,168
  • Jun 26, 2017 10:28am Jun 26, 2017 10:28am
Quoting Wulfgar
Ya so Ackman closed out his trade on VRX for a $4bln loss and it gapped down under $11 in after hours. I want to buy it
Closed this thing today at 17.... after buying a boatload of ratio spreads on it at 11. My lone highlight stock trade as of late. Everything else is dead in the water.
  • #15,169
  • Jun 26, 2017 2:20pm Jun 26, 2017 2:20pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Fool, looking like your bears are sharpening their claws. I took a punt on some ES futures short from 2445.
idk main, just a very tough fight to keep that mummafugga down...pretty much sideways is the best a bear can get, maybe a decent red candle one day in 20....I am in SPY bear call verts $244/246 expiring this week, as usual cussing the bulls, I just need a dip into $242.x any day this week and I will escape...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,170
  • Jun 27, 2017 1:59pm Jun 27, 2017 1:59pm
Quoting The Fool
....I am in SPY bear call verts $244/246 expiring this week, as usual cussing the bulls, I just need a dip into $242.x any day this week and I will escape...
...breathing room but btfd is always stalking - I will trade out for net 40c credit ...about 50c is maxp after comms
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,171
  • Jun 27, 2017 2:10pm Jun 27, 2017 2:10pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...breathing room but btfd is always stalking - I will trade out for net 40c credit ...about 50c is maxp after comms
finally a little love for the bears... I got spooked and closed my ES futures at 2425 for a nice 20 point gain on the swing

Ill let the DIA puts hopefully keep running down to 209
  • #15,172
  • Jun 27, 2017 2:39pm Jun 27, 2017 2:39pm
Quoting Wulfgar
finally a little love for the bears...
help from the talking heads today, maybe spoos can print a decent red weekly candle? I have a Jun30 SPY put fly $239/235/231...paid 25c for it weeks ago, flatlining spoos tried to kill it, maybe I might get out at b/e or a little better if the slide gets some mo
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,173
  • Jun 27, 2017 4:19pm Jun 27, 2017 4:19pm
the press will talk shit about Trumpcare all over the long weekend. If it looks like Trumpcare is gonna die this Summer, the Trump admin will start to look like a lame duck just 6 months in, the Trump Trade will finish deflating, and DJT will have no choice but to start WWIII.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,174
  • Jun 28, 2017 12:56am Jun 28, 2017 12:56am
bear trending usd could run us back to gold $1,400+ (GLD $130+) before the end of the year
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,175
  • Jun 28, 2017 12:35pm Jun 28, 2017 12:35pm
btfd as predictable as the sunrise
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,176
  • Jun 29, 2017 10:01am Jun 29, 2017 10:01am
Quoting The Fool
the press will talk shit about Trumpcare all over the long weekend. If it looks like Trumpcare is gonna die this Summer, the Trump admin will start to look like a lame duck just 6 months in, the Trump Trade will finish deflating, and DJT will have no choice but to start WWIII.

Agreed, well, its either a DJT WW3 or we all get killed in the nuclear winter from the Yellowstone supervolcano eruption. We all got it comin one way or another.

Till then I'm not closing my DIA puts. A ELE volcanic eruption should be good for at least a 3pt drop on the diamonds
  • #15,177
  • Jun 29, 2017 10:59am Jun 29, 2017 10:59am
Quoting The Fool
idk main, just a very tough fight to keep that mummafugga down...pretty much sideways is the best a bear can get, maybe a decent red candle one day in 20....I am in SPY bear call verts $244/246 expiring this week, as usual cussing the bulls, I just need a dip into $242.x any day this week and I will escape...
...out Tuesday for a net gain 40c +/-. I have a few more SPY bear call spreads out to Aug18, some miscellaneous lotto ticket VXX & UVXY call spreads, otherwise pretty much flat.

BTFD still the word so if we get a multi-day slide in US equities I'd have to fade it with an eye to the rally off TrumpCare getting through Congress....prolly nothing new for me til next week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,178
  • Jun 29, 2017 11:07am Jun 29, 2017 11:07am
Quoting The Fool
....maybe spoos can print a decent red weekly candle? I have a Jun30 SPY put fly $239/235/231...paid 25c for it weeks ago, flatlining spoos tried to kill it, maybe I might get out at b/e or a little better if the slide gets some mo
....getting 1+% red candles 2 days in a row would be like so crazy, that's what I needs to make a nickel or two on this fly
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,179
  • Jun 29, 2017 11:41am Jun 29, 2017 11:41am
Quoting Wulfgar
Till then I'm not closing my DIA puts. A ELE volcanic eruption should be good for at least a 3pt drop on the diamonds
....hell maybe 5...we are so far overdue...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,180
  • Jun 29, 2017 11:50am Jun 29, 2017 11:50am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}....hell maybe 5...we are so far overdue...

haha well I got my sept 215s runnin hot in the water, so we will see. Bought em for $2 and some change, bid is 5.20 now. Could see a pretty big vega spike too if this thing accelerates.
I'm in this like 1/10th as heavy as the big dirty short. But that's alright. it will more than offset(if it gets there) my face getting ripped off on my Fibre and cable shorts. Jesus, wtf at the greenback getting pounded? Back to 92 for another run to 103 maybe?
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