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the big indicator lie

  • #41
  • Jun 17, 2017 6:08pm Jun 17, 2017 6:08pm
[quote=gravitist;9987671]Indicators are by their very nature lagging, so they're basically useless in trading. Unless of course you make money selling indicators or EAs - then they can be quite lucrative...

All 'noobs' should read this. I wish I had 1 year ago when I started.
  • #42
  • Jun 26, 2017 3:21pm Jun 26, 2017 3:21pm
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Lovely jubbly fella's.
  • #43
  • Jun 28, 2017 12:26pm Jun 28, 2017 12:26pm
Quoting Hurst
Some really intelligent posts on this thread. Basically trading is simple assume the direction the market is going will continue, mostly it does. All my indicator does is evaluate what is the potential could be in a reversal against the trend. Most people see a move running and sell or buy paying no regard to the trend or how far the move is extended. Simply evaluating a market correctly will tell you where to buy or sell. Then having the patience to wait for the trade. Indicators make you pull the handle regardless, hence any edge you had is quickly...
i remember you had your own thread n it was great thread with 95% winning trades. why you stop posting ?
  • #44
  • Jun 28, 2017 12:51pm Jun 28, 2017 12:51pm
Quoting razaali
{quote} i remember you had your own thread n it was great thread with 95% winning trades. why you stop posting ?
Which thread ? Can you give a link ? I wanna read it
  • #45
  • Jun 28, 2017 1:03pm Jun 28, 2017 1:03pm
Quoting SulemanMehmo
{quote} Which thread ? Can you give a link ? I wanna read it
i dont remember. may be his own thread or he posted someone,s else thread but one thing i am sure. he was 95% right in his prediction.
  • #46
  • Jun 28, 2017 1:05pm Jun 28, 2017 1:05pm
Quoting buju
food for thought . . . John was sold a lie. It's a lie so easy to believe. Because it makes so much sense. Near impossible to challenge its logic. And, really it's not a lie, per se. I mean, if you believe in something so much, and then spread this belief to other people, is it a lie? Didn't matter anyway. John believed the lie: - You put indicator A on your chart. - Then you put indicator B on your chart. - Then you put indicator C on you chart. - If A, B, C (and E, F, G...) are ALL telling you that the price is gonna go up, then the probability...
John did not lie.
You made up this Cock & Bull story.
I forgot to put stop loss and proper position sizing to manage my risk
Everything went fine after first mistake.
Signed
John
  • #47
  • Jun 28, 2017 1:21pm Jun 28, 2017 1:21pm
Quoting venividivici
{quote} computers were invented by humans, most people forget this..so how do they expect them to be smarter than us?
I have a gun and bullets made by robots.
Would you like to confront me with your hand made stone axe?
Quick to prove if robots are better.

PS - All depends which idiot is using the indicators
  • #48
  • Jun 28, 2017 1:25pm Jun 28, 2017 1:25pm
Quoting Lifestudent3
price determines all indicators... not the other way around
Hi all,

Leaving aside some volume based indicators, then, yes, indicators are simply lagging derivatives of the raw price data, the price action, so you have to ask exactly what they are adding to the party.

I have tested all the standard indicators over long time periods and multiple markets with the disappointing outcome that they are all essentially random in their predictive ability. I believe their only value is if it helps a trader see price action more clearly/cleanly/simply than just by looking at the price action.

The only indicator that showed any positive value in testing is the moving average, and only in the specific instance of when used to help identify trend. All this is really saying is what you knew anyway: the trend is your friend; and you can get a pretty good idea of a good trend simply by eyeballing the price action. If you need a moving average to see it, it probably isn't that great a trend!
  • #49
  • Jun 28, 2017 4:27pm Jun 28, 2017 4:27pm
of all public indicators, i think zig-zag is to be the best. just count 5-7-9-11 bottoms or tops and you get closer to the moment of movement. also zig-zag's tops/bottoms count determine the NEXT direction. it is very simple. count odd and even numbers. cant be more easy.

so, yes, there is a public indicator that SHOWS the future direction and it is called zig-zag. i am personally not using it, however this is the closest indicator to the private one i have built. my chart screens are with black background and all candles are black, too, so i am not looking at any candles. at all. everything is just odd and even numbers.

combine zig-zag with trend lines and it will be hard to screw up a chase... that is just a free trading idea from me.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #50
  • Jun 28, 2017 9:50pm Jun 28, 2017 9:50pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
of all public indicators, i think zig-zag is to be the best. just count 5-7-9-11 bottoms or tops and you get closer to the moment of movement. also zig-zag's tops/bottoms count determine the NEXT direction. it is very simple. count odd and even numbers. cant be more easy. so, yes, there is a public indicator that SHOWS the future direction and it is called zig-zag.
Could you give an example on this? Thanks in advanced!
  • #51
  • Jun 29, 2017 2:04am Jun 29, 2017 2:04am
Quoting mav3n
{quote} Could you give an example on this? Thanks in advanced!
As i have said it, i do not use ziggi, but here is one quite good example i found out quickly. When direction changes the number of tops/bottoms is odd. When the direction continues it is even. Here we have 19 tops/bottoms on the top sideways and 15 on the bottom.

The direction, is pretty much just odd and even numbers game. Everyone has to find his/her own way of detecting the moment of movement. Before they move it, there is an average number of flips and one should know this number and not enter until that number appears. Many quick turns will be missed, surely, but if you wait long enough you will enjoy trading forex for longer times... otherwise, the account wipe out is like 99.99% guaranteed...

EDIT: now imagine you put trend lines on that one? leave the ziggi to filter the false breakouts? flip, but not like mad... imagine this?
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Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #52
  • Jun 29, 2017 3:04am Jun 29, 2017 3:04am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote}.....Here we have 19 tops/bottoms on the top sideways ......... {image}
Thanks MoneyZilla, this is quite a revelation for me ,but i am little bit slow on this. Is this how we count the the top/bottom? Am i correct? Thanks!!
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  • #53
  • Jun 29, 2017 3:51am Jun 29, 2017 3:51am
Indicators work but you do not know how to make them work.
  • #54
  • Jun 29, 2017 4:21am Jun 29, 2017 4:21am
Quoting mav3n
{quote} Thanks Am i correct?
Near miss. 1 starts where 2 is now. If the rate was about to go up, there would have been 18 ziggis, but it fell down and turn around. That is why the ziggis are 19.

These ziggis serve at least two purposes:
1. Kill all grids.
2. Delude trend devotees.
3. Wait for more money to gather in the market's gigantic basket.

There might be more good reasons, but my iq is 75 only and i am not interested in thinking them over...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #55
  • Jun 29, 2017 4:31am Jun 29, 2017 4:31am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I am curious if the bold is universal across all pairs and timeframes?
Yes. There is no difference in between the pairs. They drive on different speed only. Everything is the same everywhere.

Be careful with the time frames. I think ziggi can be accurate on m1 and eventually on m5. Hardly see it to be usefull on higher time frames. One has to spend some hefty amount of time to fine tune it. It wont come as easy as most would expect it...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #56
  • Jun 29, 2017 9:27am Jun 29, 2017 9:27am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} ...... and 15 on the bottom..... {image}
Let me try once again ( I need to practice), please bear with me Moneyzilla, i am a slow learner (but a persistent one). I try to count the bottom as follow, but it generates further questions :
1. As i learn from you, we calculate the the ziggy inside the sideways/consolidation area. Will it become a little bit subjective? Because what i perceive as the ranging area is the yellow box i made, but if i want to have 15 top/bottom, i must include the first 'thrust'. What i mean is everyone will see a little bit different on spotting the range area, do you have any suggestion on seing this?

Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote}..... Wait for more money to gather in the market's gigantic basket. T.
2. This is getting interesting!! Do you mean that the more ziggy appear in a range, means that the more money is gathered? If yes, when do we know the "money gathering" is almost over? Is it by counting odd and even ziggy as you mention previously?

3. Should we invest our time to investigate the average flip time / ziggy count on a specific pair we trade? Should we do it in M1 / M5?

Btw, your post remind me of CP's post long time ago
Quoting CrucialPoint
...... The 6 dimensions has taught me: that in any given entry, it is never a 50% win or lose that my trade are either a 2P or 1L dimensions that the odds of losing are stacked against me by a lot that only by knowing where the opportunity lies, then taking advantage of the opportunity becomes less in resistance that not knowing where are the opportunity, is like not knowing where the gold treasures are buried (not having a map) that even with good money management, taking trades on a 1L dimension will surely end into a blown account using multiple...
It forces everyone of us to fine tune / calibrate our strategy, to enter the market at the right timing (correct dimension), although i also a believer that the exit plan is more important than the entry.

Thanks for giving the further explanation MoneyZilla!
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  • #57
  • Jun 29, 2017 9:43am Jun 29, 2017 9:43am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} By Ziggy you mean the public version or your private version?
No, I mean this public indicator in precise.
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My private indicator has nothing to have in common with the ZigZag indicator. Ziggy is just a public indi in MT4 terminal. Auto-installed. I just wanted to help a little.

Quote
if success rate is timeframe dependent then they are really not universal by my own definition.
Ziggy is TF dependent. TFs are nothing but delusional. They are there to make you think you are doing something important and there are lots of choices. Are there really? I see only one. Terribly low risk-reward ratio, demolished down by the super ingenious cubic system. Anyways. It is the nature of the ZigZag indicator that is best visible in m1/5 TFs only.

I would not post any details, if Ziggy was not public already. To be honest, this is huge help from my end. Few will read it. Even less will try it. Even less will master it. Maybe no one will master it... That is why I am sharing it. Almost no one will pay any serious attention to what I say, so it is safe to publicly share it...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #58
  • Jun 29, 2017 9:54am Jun 29, 2017 9:54am
Quoting mav3n
{quote} further explanation MoneyZilla!
I have to pick up my kid from the kinder-garden. Will reply in more details. But i STRONGLY suggest you to examine the ziggy's flips. Using ZigZag indi might be really tricky, but i do not see any other meaningful (public) indicator that could possible be in any help, unfortunately.

The ziggys are always coming before the movement. If you know their average number, you are getting closer to the movement. Ziggys + trend lines will give you some 30 to max 90 pips. I could not find more (for now). More is possible, if you enter every 60-90 pips with a new trade, just to cover a week of movement (250-350 pips). Not there yet.

I am nut crazy about no-draw-down trading techniques and this is what consumes my time entirely. When i get tired I post here at FF something that might be useful for the other folks...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #59
  • Jun 29, 2017 10:16am Jun 29, 2017 10:16am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} I have to pick up my kid from the kinder-garden. Will reply in more details. But i STRONGLY suggest you to examine the ziggy's flips. Using ZigZag.......I am nut crazy about no-draw-down trading techniques and this is what consumes my time entirely. When i get tired I post here at FF something that might be useful for the other folks...
Thanks for your time MoneyZilla!
Anticipating the further lesson, right now i am preparing myself by creating template on M1/M5 that only show the Ziggy (i named the template Ziggy Stardust)
  • #60
  • Jun 29, 2017 3:13pm Jun 29, 2017 3:13pm
Quoting buju
food for thought . . . John was sold a lie. It's a lie so easy to believe. Because it makes so much sense. Near impossible to challenge its logic. And, really it's not a lie, per se. I mean, if you believe in something so much, and then spread this belief to other people, is it a lie? Didn't matter anyway. John believed the lie: - You put indicator A on your chart. - Then you put indicator B on your chart. - Then you put indicator C on you chart. - If A, B, C (and E, F, G...) are ALL telling you that the price is gonna go up, then the probability...
You should aware that, indicators wont give u direction, they r to make u always the same, got it?
WaBaS Where are Buyers and Sellers
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