{quote} As you can see in the attached picture. The demand was created because an aggressive down trend line was broken. Hence , creating the demand area! It's clearly a broken down trend. We're low in the curve on the MN/WK/D1 charts. (reason why I went long on AUD/NZD). If you wish to go shorts you need to wait for confirmation by taking out DZ on HTF.
Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
{quote} We'll need not only 1 chart for a top down analysis! Please show us your HTF charts as well, not only your entry.On your entry TF is seems like the trend is a broken Down trend.
Weekly also in consilidation.
Daily also in consilidation.
Please correct me if I'm wrong.
I've updated my Post with Screenshots of every TF: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...39#post9995839
Would you just ignore this Pair as there is no clear trend in the higher TF? Should I wait for something?
- #8,563
- Jun 20, 2017 11:55pm Jun 20, 2017 11:55pm
{quote} Yes, Monthly seems to be in consilidation. Weekly also in consilidation. Daily also in consilidation. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
look again.and the supply zone you drew at the D1 TF is also a weekly supply zone! So it's a nested area. Fresh or not? you can tell.
So MN is consolation, WK downtrend. Daily is a broken down trend.
I would wait for price to reach that nested D1 SZ within the WK SZ and wait for confirmation to try a short.
I'm only viewing your charts visually. I may be wrong. i'll post my charts when I get the chance to
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
- #8,564
- Jun 21, 2017 2:46am Jun 21, 2017 2:46am
{quote} Yes, Monthly seems to be in consilidation. Weekly also in consilidation. Daily also in consilidation. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
- Monthly is in a downtrend. Took out demand.
- Weekly is in a broken downtrend. There's a gap at the demand zone. (Gaps are the most powerful imbalence in Supply and Demand)
- D1 Broken downtrend as well.
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
- #8,565
- Jun 21, 2017 2:51am Jun 21, 2017 2:51am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Fiat Chrysler #FCA long bias. Long term buy setup at monthly demand zone around 6.22 or longs at new areas of demand. After a very strong rally in price, price usually creates a bigger retracement down to valid areas of demand. This is a long term buy setup at a big timeframe area of demand.
Have a nice day!
Alfonso
Supply and demand trading analysis and strategy
Have a nice day!
Alfonso
Supply and demand trading analysis and strategy
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
- #8,566
- Jun 21, 2017 3:19am Jun 21, 2017 3:19am
Hey traders. My take on AUD/USD. 
D1:
WK:
- Weekly hit Supply zone. Broken descending TL
- Daily have broken ascending TL upon hitting Weekly SZ
- H4. I missed a trade there. Willing to take another when D1 weak DZ is broken
- There's a single doji CP on the H4 but isn't a strong zone. Skipping that.
Here are the charts.
H4:
D1:
WK:
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
- #8,567
- Jun 21, 2017 11:23am Jun 21, 2017 11:23am
Hey traders. My take on AUD/USD. Weekly hit Supply zone. Broken descending TL Daily have broken ascending TL upon hitting Weekly SZ H4. I missed a trade there. Willing to take another when D1 weak DZ is broken
i just want to make 10% gain a month.
- #8,569
- Edited 4:41pm Jun 21, 2017 4:25pm | Edited 4:41pm
Triggered on NZD/USD . After a loss on the CP supply, price hit the upper supply zone. (See previous posts) Seems like it's showing some kind of rejection. Hopefully it'll be a runner. Price is within fresh area of supply on the H4 within D1 and WK as well. Price broke H4 ascending TL showing confirmation for a confirmation type of trade. H4 Chart: {image} Missed my long entry on AUD/NZD as well by 3 pips. {image} Are these valid trades as per the rules?
Oh well. If price continues to drop, I'll continue shorting this pair!I also canceled my long order limit on the AUD/NZD. Price was basing too much on the D1. Didn't look good. And luckily I did else it'll have been a miserable loss.
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
{quote} Price hit my BE on NZD/USD. (maybe I shouldn't have moved my SL after all. I moved it to a lower peak that was created on the way down) Didn't take into account that there's news today
If you have an order and price is closing in to activate the trade, but before the order it starts to base. Like you said on your post. The safest way would be to cancel the order and then wait for conformation entries later on?
I had this kind situation, but I was stopped out from short position by 5 pips and after that price went in my wanted direction.
Best wishes.
- #8,571
- Jun 22, 2017 3:10am Jun 22, 2017 3:10am
{quote} Dear isaacpeh, If you have an order and price is closing in to activate the trade, but before the order it starts to base. Like you said on your post. The safest way would be to cancel the order and then wait for conformation entries later on? I had this kind situation, but I was stopped out from short position by 5 pips and after that price went in my wanted direction. Best wishes.
It depends on what kind of trade it was! If it was not a very aggressive trade / with the trend trade. Personally mine was a very aggressive trade.
- MN @ Fresh but not original DZ
- WK @ 2nd retest of DZ
- D1 Broke descending TL
- H4 confirmation trade
As you can see i have missed my trade on the first retest on the H4(blue dotted line). but then price decided to drop agian soon after. If it were with the trend. I would have kept my order and not cancel my order. But as you see one the D1, it's neither going up or down! Not a very good sign to me.
Futhermore , I have learned something new while reading through the posts, my trade was not a valid one. On the D1 it did not fully break the TL when i placed the order. and no 2:1 imbalence. So the zone that was created after the TL "Break" was not valid. Hence all areas on LTF within that DZ on the D1 will automatically be negated. Unless ofcourse the D1 rallied abit higher creating 2:1 imbalence , breaking the TL and validating the zone , all zones within the D1 DZ on the H4 will be validated automatically!
Cheers 
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
- #8,574
- Edited 10:25am Jun 22, 2017 7:29am | Edited 10:25am
Hey traders & Alfonso
I need your thoughts on USD/CAD! 
D1:
WK:
MN:
I need your thoughts on USD/CAD!
- MN is in a uptrend but price is dropping after touching Fresh SZ
- WK Broke ascending TL. Confirmation for shorts on WK CP zones?
- D1 SZ nested in WK SZ zone
- H4. Out of alignment but as per the realignment rules. I'm thinking of taking the H4 zone nested within D1 and WK.
The thing is , the ascending TL on the MN chart may/may not be a confluence and price may bounce off the TL , absorbing LTF supply zones.
If it's not for that i think this would be a perfect setup for a short trade. What are your opinions?
Here are the charts.
H4:
D1:
WK:
MN:
Getting really quiet here nowadays 
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
Hey traders & Alfonso I need your thoughts on USD/CAD! MN is in a uptrend but price is dropping after touching Fresh SZ WK Broke ascending TL. Confirmation for shorts on WK CP zones? D1 SZ nested in WK SZ zone H4. Out of alignment but as per the realignment rules. I'm thinking of taking the H4 zone nested within D1 and WK. The thing is , the ascending TL on the MN chart may/may not be a confluence and price may bounce off the TL , absorbing LTF supply zones. If it's not for that i think this would be a perfect setup for a short trade. What are your...
Great analysis!
You have uploaded wrong H4 chart. It is weekly chart, but this far I have same zones as your charts!
I would like to see your thoughts on H4, because it is more noisy chart and harder to analyse for me.Here are my charts:
Best wishes.
{quote} Dear isaacpeh, Great analysis! You have uploaded wrong H4 chart. It is weekly chart, but this far I have same zones as your charts!
I am thinking to short it near 1.3508, because:
1. Weekly momentum trend line will be broken, if price will not raise will not rise dramatically,
2. Daily momentum trend line is descending and I have two fresh SZ nested with in weekly fresh SZ.
3. H4 momentum trend line is ascending, but I see two obvious imbalances level on top of leven and both are with in fresh daily SZ.
4. Correlating with USD INDEX, there is still enough room to USD fall till fresh weekly DZ.
I will short second SZ, because I do not want to make an aggressive entry.
Best wishes.
- #8,577
- Jun 22, 2017 10:40am Jun 22, 2017 10:40am
{quote} Sorry that I could not express about shorting USD/CAD. My kids were waking up. I am thinking to short it near 1.3508, because: 1. Weekly momentum trend line will be broken, if price will not raise will not rise dramatically, 2. Daily momentum trend line is descending and I have two fresh SZ nested with in weekly fresh SZ. 3. H4 momentum trend line is ascending, but I see two obvious imbalances level on top of leven and both are with in fresh daily SZ. 4. Correlating with USD INDEX, there is still enough room to USD fall till fresh weekly...
Reasons why im shorting the lower area
- Even if price fully absorbs and hit my SL, i have the higher SZ that you were planning to go long on to try!
- Price may not reach the upper zone since it's at the distal line of WK SZ.
- So, if it's a loss , it's a loss. I can try the other zone
I don't get why you would wanna short up there tho. Price will be more likely to break the TL if it's that high.
If price breaks our WK TL we'll have to cancel our orders.
Looks like your broker and mine are different on the $Index 
. I'm not able to draw a ascending TL, didn't make a HH.
Cheers ,
Isaac
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
{quote} Sorry , i have updated my post with my correct H4 chart! Thanks for your opinions on the USD/CAD. Reasons why im shorting the lower area Even if price fully absorbs and hit my SL, i have the higher SZ that you were planning to go long on to try! Price may not reach the upper zone since it's at the distal line of WK SZ. So, if it's a loss , it's a loss. I can try the other zone
Thank you for your thoughts. Made me to think in another way.
Best wishes.
- #8,580
- Jun 23, 2017 12:37am Jun 23, 2017 12:37am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 3,559 Posts
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community